WI: Napoleon dies in 1808

GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

So, suppose that Napoleon Bonaparte is assassinated by an angry spaniard at the start of his invasion of Iberia, also known as the Peninsular War. Or is shot by an enemy soldier while riding his horse. What you will.
-Who will succeed Napoleon as emperor? How competent is this heir?
-How will the Peninsular War proceed?
-And after that? Will the First French Empire collapse or does it have a better chance of survival without an overly ambitious and insistent fool like Napoleon on the throne? Will the annexations of the netherlands, the piedmont, lazio and catalonia still happen?
 
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Galba Otho Vitelius

Actually this has been done, though I can't conjure up the link, and the discussion was pretty detailed and good. However, the POD IIRC was a few years later than 1808, which is important because a few years later he has a son and heir. But I think there was another discussion focused on an earlier date, and in that case Joseph would have been adequate (nothing more, but adequate enough) as a successor.

The short answer is that this turns out to be very good for the French Empire. Napoleon was really past his sell-by date in 1808. The administrative structures he built were actually quite durable, or would have been if France could have avoided getting into a series of wars with a stronger coalition of powers, which it had a chance of doing without Napoleon. Napoleon gave them a chance of winning these types of wars, but eventually his luck was going to run out.
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

"Is there any chance of a sucession war after nappy's death here?"

No. The French Empire had a perfectly well-defined succession law. This was covered in the other threads.

This is not analogous to the death of Alexander the Great. France was an already established great power that expanded in the 1790s and 1800s, it wasn't the case of an army conquering another great empire. Joseph wasn't Philip Arrhideaus, nor was Marie Louise Roxanne.
 

Redbeard

Banned
In OTL the Austrians used the opportunity of having Napoleon occupied in Spain to declare war. With Napoleon occupied for good I guess the temptation for the Austrians will be at least as good, and the chance to have the Prussians and/or Russians will be better.

The big question is if Napoleons successor can perform adequately when he meets one of the best (if not the best) allied commander Archduke Karl (brother of the Emperor) with the Austrian Army at its zenith. Most interesting scenario would be if Karl and the Austrians alone send the French back to France. Not alone will Emperor Francis' mistrust in his brother be much more prominent - only God knows what will happen - but the balance in Europe will be very different from OTL.

Austria will claim hegemony over central Europe and Italy, but Prussia and Russia will jealously watch and wait for their moment. If the French successor is beaten I could very well see turbulent times in France.

In London they will be relieved but anxiously watch if the balance is disturbed.

By mid/late 19th century, all the foreign secretaries having watched the various crowned houses and their armies are surprised as the bourgeoisie rise with power much bigger than in OTL. First in Germany, where the Austrian suppression has been much harder compared to OTL, but next all over Europe and is soon joined by the rapidly growing class of industrial workers.
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

Redbeard does have good points. Napoleon was a depreciating asset, but his death works out much better for France in 1811 than in 1808. By 1811 he has a heir, the heir is the grandson of the Austrian Emperor so probably no trouble from that quarter, and the 1809 war with Austria has already happened. There is the additional bonus that by 1811 people recognized that field command was not a good role for Berthier, and he would have stayed in Paris co-ordinating strategy.

On the other hand, in 1811 the Regents would have had the Iberian quagmire to deal with, but the likely Regents were capable of disengaging from that. And in reality, how to deal with the Spanish Bourbons was a genuine problem that no one in Paris in 1808 had a good answer for.
 

Napoleonrules

Banned
GauchoBadger said:
Although that heir, by 1811, is still a baby. Someone will have to take up the regency.
Click to expand...
Is it possible that the Austrian Emperor will at least offer to the other nations- "I'll be regent and we all come to Vienna and decide what will allow peace?" And history ends up having its Congress of Vienna after all. Everyone can see France will be stable with no reactionary revolutionary or egomaniac ruler, a respected monarch will be overseeing things and assuming responsibility for having Nappy Jr raised as a proper European monarch respecting borders. The Vienna Conference can be for the diplomats to redraw the map in a way that the Emperor can show Russia and Prussia and Britain that a Franco Austrian "United front" is not a threat to the balance of power. Strategy such as Prussia being enlarged; Russia getting Poland and a free hand in the Balkans (or at least Wallachia), and other things we saw in OTL such as a united Netherlands, along with things not seen such as some sort of arrangements regarding Italy so France and Austria don't dominate together, perhaps some bone in Italy is thrown to the Spanish or to molify the French Boubons who obviously will be a bulwark against Austro-French intrigue.

Of course a clause stating no further marriages of the French and Austrian monarchies, no personal unions ever, no French forces in Austria and vice versa, limitations on French navy.
 
GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

Napoleonrules said:
Is it possible that the Austrian Emperor will at least offer to the other nations- "I'll be regent and we all come to Vienna and decide what will allow peace?" And history ends up having its Congress of Vienna after all. Everyone can see France will be stable with no reactionary revolutionary or egomaniac ruler, a respected monarch will be overseeing things and assuming responsibility for having Nappy Jr raised as a proper European monarch respecting borders. The Vienna Conference can be for the diplomats to redraw the map in a way that the Emperor can show Russia and Prussia and Britain that a Franco Austrian "United front" is not a threat to the balance of power. Strategy such as Prussia being enlarged; Russia getting Poland and a free hand in the Balkans (or at least Wallachia), and other things we saw in OTL such as a united Netherlands, along with things not seen such as some sort of arrangements regarding Italy so France and Austria don't dominate together, perhaps some bone in Italy is thrown to the Spanish or to molify the French Boubons who obviously will be a bulwark against Austro-French intrigue.

Of course a clause stating no further marriages of the French and Austrian monarchies, no personal unions ever, no French forces in Austria and vice versa, limitations on French navy.
Click to expand...
So, what we have here as your idea is a franco-austrian political alliance, with focus shifted from military to economic/political? Interesting.
Albeit i wouldn't be so keen on the alliance agreeing to keep their military prowess reduced for so long.
 

Napoleonrules

Banned
GauchoBadger said:
So, what we have here as your idea is a franco-austrian political alliance, with focus shifted from military to economic/political? Interesting.
Albeit i wouldn't be so keen on the alliance agreeing to keep their military prowess reduced for so long.
Click to expand...
Though the Austrian Emperor as regent may have thoughts of cooperation my opinion is that Britain and Prussia, and even Russia, may impose restrictions (such as the military and marriage ones I describe) to keep any type of alliance from happening. As per the reason anyone does anything in real life, the Austrian Emperor would be proposing this because he believes it will give him extra power and influence, the other Powers would only go along if they think they have denied him that and especially Britain will want to see a Balance of Power on the Continent. In the end maybe every one agrees that Austrian "babysitting" France does bring peace, or maybe Britain or some other power doesn't go along with it. But im just wondering is it possible that the Emperor WOULD propose such a thing?
 

Colonel Troutstrangler

Prussia, Russia and Great Britain would all be vary wary of a Austrian French alliance.
Central Germany would get carved up between the two, their spheres would extend beyond the Rhine for France and north of the Maine for Austria
 

Autocrat

If Napoleon dies at the beginning of the Peninsular War then you will still have the Peninsular War and without Napoleon's leadership I see it going worse for the French.
 

Blackfox5

Napoleon's brother Joseph Bonaparte, who was King of Naples until June 1808 and King of Spain afterwards, is his heir. So Joseph becomes the new Emperor. Joseph seems to have been a competent man. I don't think anyone could have succeeded in Spain in the same circumstances.

Joseph will be surrounded with an excellent array of French marshals and Talleyrand (who was no longer foreign minister after April 1807, but could easily come back). He has very able help to keep his throne and preserve the Empire. I don't see him invading everyone as his brother did because Joseph did not have the same love of war. I think he will try to make peace

Joseph never wanted to be king of Spain, and it is likely that upon becoming Emperor will jettison the title. He might restore Ferdinand VII to the throne who was then imprisoned in France.

The real question in 1808 is can Joseph make peace with Britain if he wanted to? Or will Britain not consider him trustworthy to make peace? In 1808, I don't think there was any other war than the Peninsular War. With Napoleon dead and Joseph offering to restore Ferdinand VII to the throne, it is possible Britain would be willing to make peace in exchange for the end of the Continental System and some other arrangements to satisfy the disputes that caused the breakdown of the Treaty of Amiens. As long as Britain is given some role within the politics of Europe and the worse French annexations reversed (like restoring the Papal States), they'll probably be satisfied. The fate of the Netherlands may be an issue (his brother Louis would still be king at this time). If popular sentiment among Joseph's advisers is against any diminution of the Empire he inherited, then the war will continue. However, I imagine it will be Talleyrand looking to end the war and taking the lead in that if he is restored as foreign minister.
 
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