WI: Mongols win Ain Jalut?

ThatOneGuy

ThatOneGuy

Lets say the Mongols are able to win at the Battle of Ain Jalut in 1260. Lets not make it a crushing victory, just a clearly Mongol one. How boned are the Mamelukes? Could the Mongols push into Egypt or were they already really at their limit? What affect would this have on the Middle East? Would the Mongols sweep Jerusalem and Tripoli into the sea also? How would that be received in Europe?
 

alexmilman

ThatOneGuy said:
Lets say the Mongols are able to win at the Battle of Ain Jalut in 1260. Lets not make it a crushing victory, just a clearly Mongol one. How boned are the Mamelukes? Could the Mongols push into Egypt or were they already really at their limit? What affect would this have on the Middle East? Would the Mongols sweep Jerusalem and Tripoli into the sea also? How would that be received in Europe?
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At Ain Jault only a single Mongolian corps (1 rumen plus Armenian and Georgian contingents) was engaged so even in the case of a complete success conquest of Egypt looks unlikely. Hulagu with a bulk of his army was away in Mongolia and after return got engaged in a war with Berke (ruler of the GH), which he lost. So he did not have resources adequate for the conquest. Anyway, it was argued that an absence of the good grazing areas did prevent the Mongols from a long term occupation of Syria.

Now, if the Mongols are victorious at Ain Jalut, it is anything but clear why would Kitbuqa, who was a Christian, do something nasty to Jerusalem. From the Christian point of view he could end up as a second Godfrey of Bouillon, leader of the Yellow Crusade. :) as for Tripoli, it could end up as one more Mongolian vassal state.
 

alexmilman

Anthony Appleyard said:
See Youtube
"Battle of Ain Jalut, 1260 ⚔️ The Battle that saved Islam and stopped the Mongols - معركة عين جالوت"
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Title of the movie is rather silly on two accounts:

1st, Islam as a religion was not threatened with extinction because it was doing just fine in the Mongol-occupied CA and, by 1260 the Mongolian ruler of the GH, Berke, was a Muslim. One of the distinct features of the general Mongolian policy was an absolute religious tolerance and protection of the existing religious institutions (on condition that they are providing “ideological support” to the Mongolian rule). Needless to say that in the early 1290s Islam became an official religion of Ilkhanate.


2nd, the battle itself did not “stop” the Mongols because (a) only a small fraction of Hulagu forces had been involved in this campaign and (b) in 1262 Berke started war with Hulagu and while in the years to follow the Ilkhanate made few attempts to conquer Syria, their conflicts with Chagatai Khanate and the GH prevented them from serious conquests on the west.
 
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