WI: The Mongols Win The Battle of Ain Jalut

Now why hasn't this been thought about as a PoD in my recent memory on this forum, I wonder? I'm talking about the Battle of Ain Jalut in 1260 AD, one of the unsung turning points in history. What if Baibars lost that historic battle against the Ilkhanate/Mongol Horde? How would he have lost? What future would behold the levant and Egypt? Would Cairo be burnt to the ground? What are the possibilities and ramifications of a Mongol sucessor state in Egypt?

Apparently this is what happened:
When Möngke Khan became Great Khan in 1251, he immediately set out to implement his grandfather Genghis Khan's plan for world empire. To lead the task of subduing the nations of the West, he selected his brother, another of Genghis Khan's grandsons, Hulagu Khan.
Assembling the army took five years, and it was not until 1256 that Hulagu was prepared to begin the invasions. Operating from the Mongol base in Persia, Hulagu proceeded south. Mongke Khan had ordered good treatment for those who yielded without resistance, and destruction for those who did not. In this way Hulagu and his army had conquered some of the most powerful and longstanding dynasties of the time. Other countries in the Mongols' path submitted to Mongol authority, and contributed forces to the Mongol army. By the time that the Mongols reached Baghdad, their army included Cilician Armenians, and even some Frankish forces from the submitted Principality of Antioch. The Hashshashin in Persia fell, the 500-year-old Abbasid Caliphate of Baghdad was destroyed (see Battle of Baghdad), and so too fell the Ayyubid dynasty in Damascus. Hulagu's plan was to then proceed southwards through the Kingdom of Jerusalem towards the Mamluk Sultanate, to confront the major Islamic power.


In 1260, Hulagu sent envoys to Qutuz in Cairo, demanding his surrender:
From the King of Kings of the East and West, the Great Khan. To Qutuz the Mamluk, who fled to escape our swords. You should think of what happened to other countries and submit to us. You have heard how we have conquered a vast empire and have purified the earth of the disorders that tainted it. We have conquered vast areas, massacring all the people. You cannot escape from the terror of our armies. Where can you flee? What road will you use to escape us? Our horses are swift, our arrows sharp, our swords like thunderbolts, our hearts as hard as the mountains, our soldiers as numerous as the sand. Fortresses will not detain us, nor armies stop us. Your prayers to God will not avail against us. We are not moved by tears nor touched by lamentations. Only those who beg our protection will be safe. Hasten your reply before the fire of war is kindled. Resist and you will suffer the most terrible catastrophes. We will shatter your mosques and reveal the weakness of your God and then will kill your children and your old men together. At present you are the only enemy against whom we have to march.[3]
Qutuz responded, however, by killing the envoys and displaying their heads on Bab Zuweila, one of the gates of Cairo.


The power dynamic then changed due to the death of the Great Khan Mongke (while on an expedition to China), requiring Hulagu and other senior Mongols to return home to decide upon his successor. A potential Great Khan, Hulagu took the majority of his army with him, and left a much smaller force west of the Euphrates of only around one or two tumens (10,000–20,000 men) under his best general, the Nestorian Christian Naiman Turk Kitbuqa Noyan.[4]
Upon receiving news of Hulagu's departure, Mamluk Sultan Qutuz quickly assembled a large army at Cairo and invaded Palestine.[5] In late August, Kitbuqa's forces proceeded south from their base at Baalbek, passing to the east of Lake Tiberias through Galilee.
The Mamluk Sultan Qutuz at that time allied with a fellow Mamluk, Baibars, who wanted to defend Islam after the Mongols captured Damascus and most of Bilad al-Sham.
The Mongols, for their part, attempted to form a Franco-Mongol alliance with (or at least, demand the submission of) the remnant of the Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem, now centered on Acre, but Pope Alexander IV had forbidden this. Tensions between Franks and Mongols had also increased when Julian of Sidon caused an incident which resulted in the death of one of Kitbuqa's grandsons. Angered, Kitbuqa had sacked Sidon. The Barons of Acre, contacted by the Mongols, had also been approached by the Mamluks, seeking military assistance against the Mongols.
Though the Mamluks were the traditional enemies of the Franks, the Barons of Acre recognized the Mongols as the more immediate menace, and so the Crusaders opted for a position of cautious neutrality between the two forces.[6] In an unusual move, they agreed that the Egyptian Mamluks could march north through the Crusader territories unmolested, and even camp to resupply near Acre. When news arrived that the Mongols had crossed the Jordan River, Sultan Qutuz and his forces then proceeded southeast toward the spring at Ain Jalut in the Jezreel Valley.[7]


The opposing forces met at Ain Jalut on September 3, 1260, both sides numbering about 20,000 men.[2] The first to advance were the Mongols, whose force also included troops from the Kingdom of Georgia and about 500 knights from the Armenian Kingdom of Cilicia, both of which had submitted to Mongol authority. The Mamluks had the advantage of knowledge of the terrain, and Qutuz capitalized on this by hiding the bulk of his force in the highlands, hoping to bait the Mongols with a smaller force under Baibars. The two armies fought restlessly for many hours, with Mamluk leader Baibars most of the time implementing hit-and-run tactics, in order to provoke the Mongol troops and at the same time preserve the bulk of his troops intact. When the Mongols carried out another heavy assault, Baibars – who it is said had laid out the overall strategy of the battle since he had spent much time in that region, earlier in his life, as a fugitive – and his men feigned a final retreat, drawing the Mongols into the highlands to be ambushed by the rest of the Mamluk forces, who were concealed among the trees in the highlands. The Mongol leader Kitbuqa, already provoked by the constant fleeing of Baibars and his troops, committed a grave mistake; instead of suspecting a trick, Kitbuqa decided to march forwards with all his troops on the trail of the fleeing Mamluks. When the Mongols reached the highlands, Mamluk forces appeared from hiding and began to fire arrows and attack with their cavalry. The Mongols then found themselves surrounded on all sides by the Mamluk forces.
The Mongol army fought very fiercely and very aggressively to break out. Some distance away, Qutuz watched with his private legion. When Qutuz saw the left wing of the Mamluk army almost destroyed by the desperate Mongols seeking an escape route, Qutuz threw away his combat helmet, so that his warriors could recognize him. He was seen the next moment rushing fiercely towards the battlefield, urging his army to keep firm and shouted "O Islam" and advanced towards the damaged side followed by his own unit. The Mongols were pushed back and fled to a vicinity of Bisan followed by Qutuz's forces but they managed to gather and returned to the battlefield making a successful counterattack. Qutuz cried loudly three times "O Islam! O God grant your servant Qutuz a victory against the Mongols". Soon, the battle shifted in favor of the Mamluks, who now had both the geographic and the psychological advantage, and eventually some of the Mongols were forced to retreat. However, the Mongol leader Kitbuqa did not retreat, choosing instead to continue to fight, until he was eventually killed by veteran Mamluk warrior Jamal al-Din Akoush al-Shamsy. When the battle ended, the Mamluk heavy cavalrymen had accomplished what had never been done before, beating the Mongols in close combat.[7]
The Battle of Ain Jalut is also notable for being the earliest known battle where explosive hand cannons (midfa in Arabic) were used. These explosives were employed by the Mamluk Egyptians in order to frighten the Mongol horses and cavalry and cause disorder in their ranks. The explosive gunpowder compositions of these cannon were later described in Arabic chemical and military manuals in the early 14th century.[8][9]


On the way back to Cairo after the victory at Ain Jalut, Qutuz was assassinated by several emirs in a conspiracy led by Baibars.[10] Baibars became the new Sultan. His successors would go on to capture the last of the Crusader states in The Holy Land by 1291. The Mongols were again beaten at the First Battle of Homs less than a year later, and completely expelled from Syria.
Internecine conflict prevented Hulagu Khan from being able to bring his full power against the Mamluks to avenge the pivotal defeat at Ain Jalut. Berke Khan, the Khan of the Kipchak Khanate in Russia, had converted to Islam, and watched with horror as his cousin destroyed the Abbasid Caliph, the spiritual head of Islam. Muslim historian Rashid-al-Din Hamadani quoted Berke as sending the following message to Mongke Khan, protesting the attack on Baghdad (not knowing Mongke had died in China): "He has sacked all the cities of the Muslims, and has brought about the death of the Caliph. With the help of God I will call him to account for so much innocent blood."[11] The Mamluks, learning through spies that Berke was both a Muslim and not fond of his cousin, were careful to nourish their ties to him and his Khanate.
After the Mongol succession was finally settled, with Kublai as the last Great Khan, Hulagu returned to his lands by 1262, and massed his armies to attack the Mamluks and avenge Ain Jalut. However, Berke Khan initiated a series of raids in force which lured Hulagu north, away from the Levant to meet him. Hulagu suffered severe defeat in an attempted invasion north of the Caucasus in 1263. This was the first open war between Mongols, and signaled the end of the unified empire.
Hulagu was only able to send a small army of two tumens in his only attempt to attack the Mamluks after Ain Jalut, and it was repulsed. Hulagu Khan died in 1265 and was succeeded by his son Abaqa.
 
What future would behold the levant and Egypt?
They will be taken and ruled by the Mongols of Hulagu.

Would Cairo be burnt to the ground?
Not necessarily, but probably. As you remember the Mongol envoys were killed in this city. Some retribution usually followed. To teach a lesson.

What are the possibilities and ramifications of a Mongol sucessor state in Egypt?
Egypt would be the part of the Ilkhanate of course.
And that will be the precious asset - with the Mamluks taken out of the picture Egypt is easy to hold and it is extraordinary rich in agricultural products. Though one cannot be sure that it would stay that rich after being taken by the Mongols:D
But anyway in OTL the Il-khans had the Mamluks as a constant threat on their South-West border and that was the place where anyone displeased with the Ilkhan could flee to. And that refugee was always welcomed by the Mamluks.
Egypt was the place where all the disgrantled Muslims under the Mongol rule looked at as their natural protector and potential liberator from the pagans (of course before the Mongols converted to Islam themselves).

With Egypt (and Levant) taken the Ilkhans became much stronger without being overstretched. They had better standing in their struggle against the Golden Horde. And they would definitely take a firmer grip on Asia Minor.
 
Not sure Ain Jalut would be enough to destroy the Mamluk army.

And controlling more territory is hardly going to make them less overstretched, even if they don't have as much of an external foe situation.
 
Hmmm, well it depends how the mongols win I suppose. Overwhelmingly or by the skin of their teeth. Eitherway as they march toward Egypt the Mongol commanders will most likely see that supplies for their mounts and soldiers become tenuous so they would have to change tactics. Probably beef up their forces with vassal Arab/Persian soldiers like they did with the Turks and then push south. Which of course would take time and effort in which the Mamluk's could counter attack and the Mongols would lose the ground they won.

At most I could see the Mongols taking the option of raiding and burning down a good portion of the Holy Land.

Their best, best option would be to act in concert with some third party.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
It's been awhile since I looked into this, but weren't the Mongols already withdrawing when the battle took place?
 
If the Il-Khanate is to become victorious here, they need to either solve their differences with the Golden Horde or to prevent the feuds between them from ever taking place. There is a reason why the Mameluks cultivated a close relationship with Berke. Take Berke out of the picture, and the Golden Horde could help the Il-Khanate.
 
It's been awhile since I looked into this, but weren't the Mongols already withdrawing when the battle took place?

If memory serves, already had even - it was against the troops left behind after Hugalu went east for the latest succession bit of crap.
 
Hmmm, well it depends how the mongols win I suppose. Overwhelmingly or by the skin of their teeth...

Their best, best option would be to act in concert with some third party.

It wouldn't matter how the Mongols win. First of all the Mongols were not supposed to attack the Mamlucks that year. Hulagu just left some forces enough to keep under control the territories which were already subjugated. It was the Mamluks who attacked.
So it was enough for the Mongols not to lose to keep their ground. And they had to wait for Hulagu to come back with the main Mongol forces and to move on to Egypt.
As for the third party... The Mongols were too imperial too haughty at that period. There was not such a thing as a 'third party' in their mentality. They thought in terms of world domination:
there were peoples already conquered by the Mongols
and there were peoples which were not yet conquered by the Mongols.

As you see there is no place for the 'third party' from this point of view.
 
If the Mongols decided to follow up and attack and the cities if the holy land resist their gonna sacked, and possibly Jerusalem since the Illkhante is still ruled by Buddhists. If the mongols make it to Cairo and sack it, we could see a Turk wank later on.
 
If the Mongols decided to follow up and attack and the cities if the holy land resist their gonna sacked, and possibly Jerusalem since the Illkhante is still ruled by Buddhists. If the mongols make it to Cairo and sack it, we could see a Turk wank later on.

Turk wank as opposed to what, where the Turks "merely" won?
 
If the Mongols decided to follow up and attack and the cities if the holy land resist their gonna sacked, and possibly Jerusalem since the Illkhante is still ruled by Buddhists. If the mongols make it to Cairo and sack it, we could see a Turk wank later on.

Technically the Turk Wank had already occurred what with the Turkmen giving all the Arab dynasties the old heave ho.
 
Should of avoided using wank in this instance. I meant if any significant Turkish polities happen to rise after the inevitable fall of the Illkhanate. They wouldn't have the Mamluks as a problem, but would have to worry each other and any Illkhanate successor states.
 
If the Mongols decided to follow up and attack and the cities if the holy land resist their gonna sacked, and possibly Jerusalem since the Illkhante is still ruled by Buddhists. If the mongols make it to Cairo and sack it, we could see a Turk wank later on.
No, the Ilkhanate was not ruled by Buddhists at that moment. The Mongols of this ulus followed the good old traditional Mongol religious beliefs and jasa of Chengiz Khan which looked at all religions as equally usefull in a way to achieve their goals.
The Buddhism just happened to be a little more favoured by the Hulagu Mongols than other religions at that moment. There were a few Buddhist temples built in Iran by the Mongols but I wouldn't jump to conclusions about their converting to Buddhism.
That is a common misunderstanding of the Mongol religious mentality of that time:
- when envoys of the Roman pope saw that the Ilkhan respectfully treated Christianity they saw it as a sign that the Mongols are gonna convert to Christianity or already started to get baptised.

And I did not get your point about Turk wank as well. The Mamluks were the Turks, at least their overwhelming majority.
 
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No, the Ilkhanate was not ruled by Buddhists at that moment. The Mongols of this ulus followed the good old traditional Mongol religious beliefs and jasa of Chengiz Khan which looked at all religions as equally usefull in a way to achieve their goals.
The Buddhism just happened to be a little more favoured by the Hulagu Mongols than other religions at that moment. There were a few Buddhist temples built in Iran by the Mongols but I wouldn't jump to conclusions about their converting to Buddhism.
That is a common misunderstanding of the Mongol religious mentality of that time:
- when envoys of the Roman pope saw that the Ilkhan respectfully treated Christianity they saw it as a sign that the Mongols are gonna convert to Christianity or already started to get baptised.

And I did not get your point about Turk wank as well. The Mamluks were the Turks, at least their overwhelming majority.

Tengriism.

Buddhism has had a long tradition in Central Asia.

The Mamluks were a mixed group, mostly from the Caucasus.
 
Not sure Ain Jalut would be enough to destroy the Mamluk army.

And controlling more territory is hardly going to make them less overstretched, even if they don't have as much of an external foe situation.

It wouldn't have destroyed the Mamluk army---only a part of it was deployed for this battle. The Mamluks proved they could absorb losses against the Mongols a little later, and still come back to later defeat them (Battle of Wadi al-Khazandar in 1299 followed by Battle of Marj al-Saffar 1303).
Agreed on overstretch factor. Plus Egypt (especially getting there) would feature terrain not that favorable to Mongol cavalry, particularly working at the end of their logistics train. Maybe they could take Egypt, briefly, but I doubt the'd be able to hold it. The Il-Khanate also had plenty of other enemies to worry about, as well, which diffused their energies).
 
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