WI: Margaret of Anjou's army crosses into Wales?

[RedKing]

In OTL, upon Margaret of Anjou and Edward of Lancaster's arrival in England, they began a march to Wales, where Jasper Tudor had raised an army of 5,000 men. Margaret's army soon found itself in a race to reach Wales, before the Yorkist army headed by Edward IV could catch them. They attempted to cross into Wales by using the bridge at Gloucester, but the Mayor denied them access to the town, as per Edward IV's orders. They then tried to cross into Wales at Upton-on-Severn a few miles north, but were forced to give battle to the Yorkists and were later defeated in the disastrous Battle of Tewkesbury.

But what if the Lancastrians had had a bit more luck and where able to cross into Wales? Maybe they are allowed enter Gloucester and enter Wales from there, or are able to reach Upton-on-Severn, before the Yorkists can catch them. Either way, the Lancastrians are in Wales before Edward IV can catch them, and are about to meet up with Jasper's force. What happens now? Does Edward IV wait for reinforcements, or does he pursue them into Wales, and fights a Battle against them a few days later?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

In OTL, upon Margaret of Anjou and Edward of Lancaster's arrival in England, they began a march to Wales, where Jasper Tudor had raised an army of 5,000 men. Margaret's army soon found itself in a race to reach Wales, before the Yorkist army headed by Edward IV could catch them. They attempted to cross into Wales by using the bridge at Gloucester, but the Mayor denied them access to the town, as per Edward IV's orders. They then tried to cross into Wales at Upton-on-Severn a few miles north, but were forced to give battle to the Yorkists and were later defeated in the disastrous Battle of Tewkesbury.

But what if the Lancastrians had had a bit more luck and where able to cross into Wales? Maybe they are allowed enter Gloucester and enter Wales from there, or are able to reach Upton-on-Severn, before the Yorkists can catch them. Either way, the Lancastrians are in Wales before Edward IV can catch them, and are about to meet up with Jasper's force. What happens now? Does Edward IV wait for reinforcements, or does he pursue them into Wales, and fights a Battle against them a few days later?

Sounds like alt-Tewkesbury is gonna be a harder fight than OTL no?

 

[material_boy]

Edward was outnumbered at Barnet and probably Tewkesbury (though to a much lesser extent) and won both encounters. Would another 5,000 Lancastrians make a difference? They had very few good field commanders by this stage, and even if Warwick -- who was arguably the best they had -- had survived Barnet, the Lancastrians would likely struggle to take orders from a former Yorkist.

He may have a more difficult time, but my money would still be March to come out on top.

 

[RedKing]

Sounds like alt-Tewkesbury is gonna be a harder fight than OTL no?

It probably will be, especially since Jasper seems to have been a decent commander, which would be a big boost to the Lancastrians, since the Baron Wenlock (an associate of Warwick), also seems to have been a decent commander.

Edward was outnumbered at Barnet and probably Tewkesbury (though to a much lesser extent) and won both encounters. Would another 5,000 Lancastrians make a difference? They had very few good field commanders by this stage, and even if Warwick -- who was arguably the best they had -- had survived Barnet, the Lancastrians would likely struggle to take orders from a former Yorkist.

Yeah, Edward could easily still win, though his army is exhausted and would need a few day’s rest, which would give the Lancastrians some breathing room, and possibly the chance to bring the Yorkists to battle on their own terms. The fresh men from Jasper’s force would also help.

He may have a more difficult time, but my money would still be March to come out on top.

I agree, March coming out on top is likely, though the extant to which he wins could vary greatly.

 

[Deleted member 147978]

Will the Lancastrians pull a comeback against the York Boys if they got lucky with their entry into Wales?

 

[RedKing]

Will the Lancastrians pull a comeback against the York Boys if they got lucky with their entry into Wales?

Maybe, as @material_boy said, Edward IV has a thing for beating armies that outnumber him.

 

[Bob_Jenko]

It probably will be, especially since Jasper seems to have been a decent commander, which would be a big boost to the Lancastrians, since the Baron Wenlock (an associate of Warwick), also seems to have been a decent commander.

While I'm not doubting a fight with Jasper and his reinforcements would be a tougher ask than otl (5,000 men is no joke), I still think Edward IV would win. As has been said, Edward had a knack for defeating bigger armies than his. In fact, every battle Edward commanded he had fewer men and won them all (Mortimer's Cross, Towton, Losecote Field, Barnet, Tewkesbury). So I think Edward would need to adjust his plan and not just gun straight for the Lancastrians as he did otl as that was because he needed to stop Margaret's army meeting Jasper's. If they're already together, Edward would let his men rest and try to muster some more men again.

As for Wenlock, otl he failed to follow Somerset's plan of attacking the Yorkists and was reportedly killed by Somerset for his failings.

 

[RedKing]

While I'm not doubting a fight with Jasper and his reinforcements would be a tougher ask than otl (5,000 men is no joke), I still think Edward IV would win. As has been said, Edward had a knack for defeating bigger armies than his. In fact, every battle Edward commanded he had fewer men and won them all (Mortimer's Cross, Towton, Losecote Field, Barnet, Tewkesbury). So I think Edward would need to adjust his plan and not just gun straight for the Lancastrians as he did otl as that was because he needed to stop Margaret's army meeting Jasper's. If they're already together, Edward would let his men rest and try to muster some more men again.

Yeah, all that really changes is the extant to which he wins, other than that everything plays out similar to OTL. As for Mortimer's Cross I have seen some say the Yorkists outnumbered the Lancastrians, so he may have had more men than the Lancastrians.

As for Wenlock, otl he failed to follow Somerset's plan of attacking the Yorkists and was reportedly killed by Somerset for his failings.

True, though I have also heard he deliberately failed to advance.

 

[Bob_Jenko]

Yeah, all that really changes is the extant to which he wins, other than that everything plays out similar to OTL. As for Mortimer's Cross I have seen some say the Yorkists outnumbered the Lancastrians, so he may have had more men than the Lancastrians.

True, though I have also heard he deliberately failed to advance.

Yeah. The Lancastrian army would still be defeated, the Lancastrian lords still probably routed, Edward of Lancaster killed (EIV ain't gonna let him get away). Begs the question on what would happen later if Jasper is killed/imprisoned in 1471 and what of his nephew.

I've only ever seen reports at Mortimer's Cross of the Lancastrians having more (I seem to recall some of 7,000 to Edward's 5,000) or that they were about even (~5,000 each).

Could be either tbh. Iirc, the Lancastrians were wary of him given Wenlock's connection with Warwick and where his allegiances may lie, especially after some reports from Barnet said Montagu (a former Yorkist ofc) turned on Oxford's men.

 

[RedKing]

Yeah. The Lancastrian army would still be defeated, the Lancastrian lords still probably routed, Edward of Lancaster killed (EIV ain't gonna let him get away). Begs the question on what would happen later if Jasper is killed/imprisoned in 1471 and what of his nephew.

In a scenario where Jasper is imprisoned in 1471, he is probably executed and attainted again (just for good measure). Considering Henry's youth, he'd probably be allowed live, and inherit his Mother's lands (or is restored the Earldom of Richmond instead), and marries a Herbert.

I've only ever seen reports at Mortimer's Cross of the Lancastrians having more (I seem to recall some of 7,000 to Edward's 5,000) or that they were about even (~5,000 each).

I have seen some online say the Lancastrians were outnumbered but fair.

ould be either tbh. Iirc, the Lancastrians were wary of him given Wenlock's connection with Warwick and where his allegiances may lie, especially after some reports from Barnet said Montagu (a former Yorkist ofc) turned on Oxford's men.

True, the whole Montagu incident would have hurt Wenlock's reputation.

 

[Bob_Jenko]

In a scenario where Jasper is imprisoned in 1471, he is probably executed and attainted again (just for good measure). Considering Henry's youth, he'd probably be allowed live, and inherit his Mother's lands (or is restored the Earldom of Richmond instead), and marries a Herbert.

True. Jasper was one of those that probably caused Edward IV enough problems to warrant an execution, but Edward did let De Vere live otl so maybe he spares his life.

I agree Tudor is probably spared and allowed to inherit at least some of his mother's lands and given a good bride. I doubt he'd be allowed an earldom, at least not to begin with. If he proves his loyalty then maybe he does get the earldom.

True, the whole Montagu incident would have hurt Wenlock's reputation.

Yes. So when Wenlock is seen to mess up at Tewkesbury, the other Lancastrians immediately thought treachery.

If Wenlock doesn't mess up as bad, and Tudor keeps them in line to at least some extent, then you may see another Towton-like battle in that it was extremely long and lasted a while with no clear victor. But eventually there'd be a break and the Yorkists would come out on top and rout the Lancastrians. Similar to otl then most Lancastrian lords not killed in battle (EoW, Tudor, potentially Wenlock, Courtenay) would be executed.

If Jasper is out of the way and Henry back into the Yorkist fold and married off by the time Edward dies, it would be interesting to see what would happen with Richard, Duke of Gloucester and if he'd do as otl and what the outcome would be.

 

[isabella]

If Jasper is out of the way and Henry back into the Yorkist fold and married off by the time Edward dies, it would be interesting to see what would happen with Richard, Duke of Gloucester and if he'd do as otl and what the outcome would be.

Pretty unlikely things will go anywhere like OTL there as Edward IV can very well live longer than OTL, and most important butterflies can change a lot of things in Burgundy and that would made impossible Richard’s coup. Keep in mind who if Mary had not died, Elizabeth of York would be still engaged to the Dauphin meaning who France would get a good excuse for invading England. If Edward lived another year then Elizabeth would be most likely married to Maximilian of Austria (who was regent of Burgundy for his son by Mary and had Lancastrian blood) and that would be a bigger danger for Richard

 

[Bob_Jenko]

Pretty unlikely things will go anywhere like OTL there as Edward IV can very well live longer than OTL, and most important butterflies can change a lot of things in Burgundy and that would made impossible Richard’s coup. Keep in mind who if Mary had not died, Elizabeth of York would be still engaged to the Dauphin meaning who France would get a good excuse for invading England. If Edward lived another year then Elizabeth would be most likely married to Maximilian of Austria (who was regent of Burgundy for his son by Mary and had Lancastrian blood) and that would be a bigger danger for Richard

Very true. With all the 'loose ends' tied up here and everything else going for them, the Yorkists are in an even better position than otl. And I agree Richard would be extremely dumb to try anything when he could risk invasion from France or the HRE if he tries to take the throne.

I think Edward IV would still die while his son was a teenager, but probably old enough to rule on his own. Though I'm now wondering if Clarence would still meet his otl fate ittl. If he is alive then Richard isn't trying anything and is most likely going to be stopping Clarence from trying anything.

 

[isabella]

Very true. With all the 'loose ends' tied up here and everything else going for them, the Yorkists are in an even better position than otl. And I agree Richard would be extremely dumb to try anything when he could risk invasion from France or the HRE if he tries to take the throne.

I think Edward IV would still die while his son was a teenager, but probably old enough to rule on his own. Though I'm now wondering if Clarence would still meet his otl fate ittl. If he is alive then Richard isn't trying anything and is most likely going to be stopping Clarence from trying anything.

Oh, I believe who Clarence would still made some idiocy who will bring him to death as that was almost inevitable, leaving Richard as the only brother to survive Edward IV, but once Elizabeth of York is safely married outside England, you can be sure who Richard will have his hands tied