What would have happened if John McDonnell had won the Labour leadership contest of 2007?
WI: Labour leader, John McDonnell
- Thread starter Comisario
- Start date
I don't think he could have. He couldn't even squeak onto the ballot when he was the 'Stop Gordon' candidate, which was his only real chance of doing so. Standing openly and honestly as a member of the Campaign Group, he wouldn't have had a chance (Diane Abbott, running on the same sort of platform, needed sympathy nominations from Blairite MPs even with the smaller PLP after 2010).
That said, if some miracle happens and he does win... A massive policy U-turn towards 1983-vintage Labour. I'd say pretty much the entire Cabinet of 2007 refuse to serve under him so there's a new government as well. I've no idea if there are even enough Labour MPs who would endorse McDonnell's kind of platform to form a government. I guess Michael Meacher gets the Treasury because he's about the only person with any government experience who'd be willing to serve. All in all, McDonnell pretty much has to call a general election: that kind of policy U-turn and total government shakeup would probably demand it.
With a very leftwing Labour being crucified in the popular press, David Cameron sweeps to victory in a 2007 landslide election and the Labour Party are left to wonder exactly what happened.
Ignoring the How for a moment and going with the What if?:
Purnell, Blears et al. jump even sooner than in OTL - their assumption being that the 2009/2010 general will be a complete rout, even before they're frozen out of the leadership inner circle.
Tory party and press run with headlines along the lines of "The most left-wing leader/manifesto since 1983!". And in this reality a label like "Red McDonnell" would actually be appropriate.
Maybe its my natural cynicism, but I'd say that McDonnell is doomed, especially once the financial crash hits ( which is pretty inevitable by July 2007). He could be the second coming of FDR or Michael Joseph Savage, but no way is he getting good publicity or coverage within the political discourse of modern Britain. Think Harry Perkins minus the exciting bits, combined with the worst of Gordon Brown's public image, for the entire length of his leadership.
As for the How - I'd mark this down as extremely implausible. Under the Labour leadership election rules (then, as now) candidates need the nominations of a full 1/6th of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) to appear on the ballot paper. There's more detail here but McDonnell fell well short of the threshold. The Socialist Campaign Group (McDonnell's "bloc") just doesn't have that many MPs these days.
Change the leadership election rules (i.e. a lower threshold for nomination, reduce the influence of the PLP in the electoral college) and he might gain some respectable level of support from party membership and affiliates - but that only raises his chances from nonexistent to miniscule.
Purnell, Blears et al. jump even sooner than in OTL - their assumption being that the 2009/2010 general will be a complete rout, even before they're frozen out of the leadership inner circle.
Tory party and press run with headlines along the lines of "The most left-wing leader/manifesto since 1983!". And in this reality a label like "Red McDonnell" would actually be appropriate.
Maybe its my natural cynicism, but I'd say that McDonnell is doomed, especially once the financial crash hits ( which is pretty inevitable by July 2007). He could be the second coming of FDR or Michael Joseph Savage, but no way is he getting good publicity or coverage within the political discourse of modern Britain. Think Harry Perkins minus the exciting bits, combined with the worst of Gordon Brown's public image, for the entire length of his leadership.
As for the How - I'd mark this down as extremely implausible. Under the Labour leadership election rules (then, as now) candidates need the nominations of a full 1/6th of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) to appear on the ballot paper. There's more detail here but McDonnell fell well short of the threshold. The Socialist Campaign Group (McDonnell's "bloc") just doesn't have that many MPs these days.
Change the leadership election rules (i.e. a lower threshold for nomination, reduce the influence of the PLP in the electoral college) and he might gain some respectable level of support from party membership and affiliates - but that only raises his chances from nonexistent to miniscule.
Him getting on the ballot isn't impossible - Brown was apparently actually furious with his team when they got so many nominations for him no one else could join, so it doesn't seem implausible for him to have them get some people to give sympathy nominations - but that would just turn it from Labour's first unopposed leadership election since 1935 to the biggest landslide leadership election victory Labour have ever had.
Chris Mullin?
In the right conditions I could see an anti-Banker, pro- rail nationalisation, eurosceptic doing rather well. He'd certainly be a fresh face and a paradigm shift from Blair, which is after all partly why Brown received the bounce he enjoyed in late 2007. That said there are going to be issues with his critics, the Murdoch Press return to the Tory fold almost immediately I'm guessing (McDonnell probably helps them pack) and there are likely to be at least a handful of Blairites lining up to write scathing condemnations of 'MaoZeDonnell' amongst other mischief.
Yes, that's a thought.
I don't know if McDonnell would have a chance to lay out his stall, so to speak, with the vast majority of the press going to be very hostile, but you may well be right. Certainly, the public will take leftist policies more readily so long as they're not labelled as such.
Let's be a bit kinder than my apocalyptic prediction above and assume that he manages to put together a workable government. What about Margaret Beckett for Chancellor? She was a Bennite once, and though she's obviously moderated her positions since the 1980s, she could plausibly rally around McDonnell, particularly if offered a job like the Treasury.
Foreign Secretary? Well, it needs to be someone who voted against Iraq. Chris Mullin is probably too junior, having never held Cabinet rank, so International Development is probably more likely. What about Frank Dobson? He's been in the Cabinet before, but he's not really paid up New Labour and he voted against Iraq, so let's have him.