WI : King Sebastian I doesn't die in the Battle of Oued El Makhazin ?

[TachfineAlMansour]

What if : instead of dying, King Sebastian gets captured by the moroccans in the aftermath of the Three Kings battle ? Does Morocco gain more money or territorial concessions (mainly Sebta, possibly some islands) or both ? How would that affect the portuguese empire, on one hand the King is still alive, on the other the state bleeded money to recover him ? Since the King is alive, that means no union ? Or will Philipp II go and try annexing portugal military. If he does, can he succeed, wouldn't that annoy other european powers (England, France maybe) ? In case of a prolonged war, how does that affect the Long War, and how does the current situtaion affects the Ottoman Empire ? Could they create a Regency of Fas or Marrakech, or maybe two regencies ? Or are they going to get friendly with the Sa'dians ?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

What if : instead of dying, king sebastian gets captured by the Moroccans ? How would that affect the portuguese empire, could Spain have intervened ? Since the King is alive, that means no union or will Philipp II still go and try annexing portugal military. If he does, how a warring Iberia affects the Long War ?

Phillips is in a difficult situation to enforce his rule on Portugal. Sebastian might be bought free for a large sum of money. He returns and Phillips has no chance to enforce his claim. Odds are, if it results in a military invasion, it might put Spain in little difficult situation as it fights the Dutch already and most likely the Portuguese.

 

[BBadolato]

What if : instead of dying, King Sebastian gets captured by the moroccans in the aftermath of the Three Kings battle ? Does Morocco gain more money or territorial concessions (mainly Sebta, possibly some islands) or both ? How would that affect the portuguese empire, on one hand the King is still alive, on the other the state bleeded money to recover him ? Since the King is alive, that means no union ? Or will Philipp II go and try annexing portugal military. If he does, can he succeed, wouldn't that annoy other european powers (England, France maybe) ? In case of a prolonged war, how does that affect the Long War, and how does the current situtaion affects the Ottoman Empire ? Could they create a Regency of Fas or Marrakech, or maybe two regencies ? Or are they going to get friendly with the Sa'dians ?

Portugal will not have to worry about being mismanaged by Spain. Phillip II would not risk a controversial move, and even then there was still the Cardinal-King Henry who would have taken the throne. The Ottomans would be overreaching, even when their allied party had won in Morocco, so I doubt they would do anything, even when Morroco courted European powers in OTL.

 

[TachfineAlMansour]

Portugal will not have to worry about being mismanaged by Spain. Phillip II would not risk a controversial move, and even then there was still the Cardinal-King Henry who would have taken the throne. The Ottomans would be overreaching, even when their allied party had won in Morocco, so I doubt they would do anything, even when Morroco courted European powers in OTL.

So apart from bleeding money, Portugal would get out of this in good shape ? Admitting that Morocco retakes its coastline, will it go on and become a Naval Mini-Power, OTL, the reason why Morocco navally retarded compared to other States, was that most of its coastlines were taken between 15th-17th, and when it tried to create a navy in the 18th century, it wasn't very well-looked upon in the european courts, now on the other hand, it has money, coastlines and prestige. back to Portugal, How will Sebastian react to this defeat ? He was an expansionist ruler, and I don't think he will enter his country in isolationism, however, I think that his defeat will create a huge distrust in the nobility, no ?

 

[BBadolato]

So apart from bleeding money, Portugal would get out of this in good shape ? Admitting that Morocco retakes its coastline, will it go on and become a Naval Mini-Power, OTL, the reason why Morocco navally retarded compared to other States, was that most of its coastlines were taken between 15th-17th, and when it tried to create a navy in the 18th century, it wasn't very well-looked upon in the european courts, now on the other hand, it has money, coastlines and prestige. back to Portugal, How will Sebastian react to this defeat ? He was an expansionist ruler, and I don't think he will enter his country in isolationism, however, I think that his defeat will create a huge distrust in the nobility, no ?

With Sebastian, it's admittedly hard to say what he would do. Most of the Portuguese nobility would be dead, and Sabastians plan for expansion would be squashed, but Portugal would still have it's relatively defended colonial empire. His more immediate concern would be marriage and producing an heir, who that would be I am not too sure.

 

[TachfineAlMansour]

With Sebastian, it's admittedly hard to say what he would do. Most of the Portuguese nobility would be dead, and Sabastians plan for expansion would be squashed, but Portugal would still have it's relatively defended colonial empire. His more immediate concern would be marriage and producing an heir, who that would be I am not too sure.

From my humble knowledge of the guy, he would be eager to produce an heir, but most importantly eager to recover his country might, but that depends of what are the conditions of the following treaty between Morocco and Portugal, wich I don't think would be very fair, knowing that Abd Al Malik was ready to get out of it peacefully, his successor Al-Mansur would trie his hardest to prevent a quick Portugues return, in the limit of what the Spanish Crown would tolerate of course, as I don't think there will be any annexations in Iberia, but certainly the recovery of all the coastlines, Surrender of the equipments left in the battle, a huge reparation sum and probably a tribute, and last but not least, according to the guy's interest for the new world, probably some island in the atlantic and ships . With this, Portugal would need a few years to recover, but I expect them to soon be on foots, ready for continuing their expansions across India, Brazil and Africa, all things considered, it is a good deal.

 

[isabella]

With Sebastian, it's admittedly hard to say what he would do. Most of the Portuguese nobility would be dead, and Sabastians plan for expansion would be squashed, but Portugal would still have it's relatively defended colonial empire. His more immediate concern would be marriage and producing an heir, who that would be I am not too sure.

At the time of his death Sebastian was engaged to Marguerite of France (the youngest daughter of Henry II, in OTL Queen of Navarre) so he would marry her...

 

[FalconHonour]

With Sebastian, it's admittedly hard to say what he would do. Most of the Portuguese nobility would be dead, and Sabastians plan for expansion would be squashed, but Portugal would still have it's relatively defended colonial empire. His more immediate concern would be marriage and producing an heir, who that would be I am not too sure.

Sebastian was betrothed to Princess Margaret of France before his OTL death, IIRC. I'd say he'd probably go ahead with the match in this scenario, if only to secure French help against Spanish ambitions regarding his land.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Sebastian was betrothed to Princess Margaret of France before his OTL death, IIRC. I'd say he'd probably go ahead with the match in this scenario, if only to secure French help against Spanish ambitions regarding his land.

Yes, and I suppose a near-death encounter in battle might concentrate his mind somewhat regarding the desirability of fathering an heir.

 

[TachfineAlMansour]

At the time of his death Sebastian was engaged to Marguerite of France (the youngest daughter of Henry II, in OTL Queen of Navarre) so he would marry her...

Well, wouldn't a dynastic union between France and Portugal changes some tiny things, like the choice of Philippe d'Anjou as the heir of the Spanish Crown ?

 

[Monter]

Well, wouldn't a dynastic union between France and Portugal changes some tiny things, like the choice of Philippe d'Anjou as the heir of the Spanish Crown ?

Maragret was really low on the French line of succession, you need to kill a lot of Valois and their descendants for that.

 

[TachfineAlMansour]

We

Maragret was really low on the French line of succession, you need to kill a lot of Valois and their descendants for that.

Well, you have 120 years of Butterflies if you want. My point was that, if the Valois managed to put oe of theirs in the throne, the spanish king would be less tempted to give the siege to a french, and the English sure would never accept it anyways so...

 

[Gonzaga]

Considering that Philip II (as he did IOTL with several nobles) would probably be the only one who could pay for the ransoms of the captives, including Sebastian, I doubt the Portuguese would marry the king to a French princess. I think that the most probable outcome is that Sebastian would be engaged to Catalina Micaela (the OTL duchess of Savoy).

Also (shameless add ) I tried twice to make a TL with this idea of Sebastian being made a captive, but the results weren't entirely serious:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...tness-a-history-of-portugal-1578-1640.150102/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...tness-a-history-of-portugal-1578-1640.150102/

 

[TachfineAlMansour]

Considering that Philip II (as he did IOTL with several nobles) would probably be the only one who could pay for the ransoms of the captives, including Sebastian, I doubt the Portuguese would marry the king to a French princess. I think that the most probable outcome is that Sebastian would be engaged to Catalina Micaela (the OTL duchess of Savoy).

Also (shameless add ) I tried twice to make a TL with this idea of Sebastian being made a captive, but the results weren't entirely serious:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...tness-a-history-of-portugal-1578-1640.150102/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...tness-a-history-of-portugal-1578-1640.150102/

Then what, all this for Portugal entering Spain's sphere of influence ?

 

[Gonzaga]

Then what, all this for Portugal entering Spain's sphere of influence ?

Not exactly entering, but 'not leaving'. By then Portugal and Spain had more common interests in colonial affairs (mainly stopping the French from advancing in the Americas) than conflicts. Also, Marguerite de Valois was already married in 1578. And Philip II was to discuss a marriage between Sebastian and Catalina or even Isabella (she was promised to Rudolph, but it was taking so long...) after he had returned from "adventure" in Morocco. So the most probable outcome is that Sebastian would be married to one of Philip's daughters. The difference is that now Portugal would become much more dependent of Spain.

 

[TachfineAlMansour]

Not exactly entering, but 'not leaving'. By then Portugal and Spain had more common interests in colonial affairs (mainly stopping the French from advancing in the Americas) than conflicts. Also, Marguerite de Valois was already married in 1578. And Philip II was to discuss a marriage between Sebastian and Catalina or even Isabella (she was promised to Rudolph, but it was taking so long...) after he had returned from "adventure" in Morocco. So the most probable outcome is that Sebastian would be married to one of Philip's daughters. The difference is that now Portugal would become much more dependent of Spain.

And how does that affect the next century ?