WI Mihailo Obrenović wasn't murdered in 1868, succesfully formed the balkan alliance and make it form the serbo-bulgarian dual monarchy? what are the condition to make it happen and how would the balkan wars / ww1 change?
Who is going to tolerate a joint Serbo-Bulgarian dual monarchy?
Assuming they accept it. They'll start unstable and need a ton of luck at the beginning. Bulgarians might be compensated with Macedonia and large parts of Thrace if they were to accept Serb rule over Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro.
Well, the obrenovic were pro austrian so maybe no claims over bosnia for austrian support ( the dual monarchy would reflect the influence)
Well that's a hard one then... how about the following period? what would change assuming the dual monarchy forms, of course we would have a more strong naztion on the military view, still weak compared to the great powers but stronger than any balkan nation od OTL(considering bulgaria was the prussia of balkans...)The problem is not desiring Bosnia but an enlarged Balkan State lead by the Serbs. I highly doubt Austria(-Hungary) will want that. Neither will Russia want a dual monarchy they can't use as their puppet in the Balkans.
Well that's a hard one then... how about the following period? what would change assuming the dual monarchy forms, of course we would have a more strong naztion on the military view, still weak compared to the great powers but stronger than any balkan nation od OTL(considering bulgaria was the prussia of balkans...)
i think that the hate for ottomans will unite for a long period the two population helping an integration( the language wasn't that different, the religion was the same...)A dual monarchy is by far weaker than when it isn't that big. Mostly as it is unstable due to the question, who's issues matter more, Bulgaria or Serbia? Civil War is imminent. One net positive, there is a common enemy of Serbs and Bulgarians: Ottomans. That may unite the people of the two states.
Bulgaria as the Prussia of the Balkans? With all due respect for Bulgaria, it seems to me wrong to make such comparison.
i think that the hate for ottomans will unite for a long period the two population helping an integration( the language wasn't that different, the religion was the same...)
In OTL bulgaria was called the " prussia of the Balkans" because was heavily militarized, and confronted to other nation of the balkans peninsula the best in strenght, in the second balkan war without ottoman/romanian intervention would have been able to take down the serbo-greek forces
since you're on the forum more than me, and to respect the WI, bypassing the initial survival( maybe a new version of the santo steafno treaty to berlin?) how do you think the ATL would change the events arounf balkans until ww1?I see... I was thinking differently about it then...
An (Orthodox) Yugoslav Identity may help to unite them but I am still sceptical about it...
my idea to make happen this WI is like the bulgarian revised santo stefano:Balkan politics in this era were entirely dominated by the Great Powers, is the main issue here. None of them but Russia will tolerate a gigantic, unified Slavic state and some like Austria-Hungary would be willing to go to war over this issue. San Stefano prompted a massive diplomatic backlash IOTL; an even greater Serbo-Bulgaria might spark a full-fledged panic.
since you're on the forum more than me, and to respect the WI, bypassing the initial survival( maybe a new version of the santo steafno treaty to berlin?) how do you think the ATL would change the events arounf balkans until ww1?
my idea to make happen this WI is like the bulgarian revised santo stefano:
instead of taking all of macedonia and thrace serbia would forma union with the northern part of bulgaria while macedonia and rumelia would become semi autonomous regions this way the powers could somehow approve the new country
A Bulgaria more to the West rather than East (Including Vardar Macedonia, not Eastern Bulgaria) may balance it out for Bulgaria.
Alright, I think I could see it, but that likely ends up with Macedonia and Rumelia as puppets of some Great Power and Bulgaria still yearning for them. The peace is definitely not a final one.
This is an intriguing suggestion; Silistra was majority Turkish then, and the rest of Eastern Bulgaria had significant Turkish minorities (and IIRC still does).
Question: is Selanik included in this new Bulgaria?
No. Not at least in the Peace conference in 1878. Hence why a Greco-Bulgarian rivalry will be born. North Macedonia is still largely Slavic and will be added to Western Bulgaria and that will be the original Bulgaria.
Silistre will be more solidly Islamic with new refugees, making Bulgarias situation harder if they desire these lands
At the very least two vital elements:WI Mihailo Obrenović wasn't murdered in 1868, succesfully formed the balkan alliance and make it form the serbo-bulgarian dual monarchy? what are the condition to make it happen and how would the balkan wars / ww1 change?
This leaves Bulgaria in a clearly superior position, especially if they gain most of Macedonia. It's difficult to see Serbia being satisfied with this.Well, the obrenovic were pro austrian so maybe no claims over bosnia for austrian support ( the dual monarchy would reflect the influence)
Such a country would be a natural Russian ally. Which is why of course neither A-H, nor the British Empire would accept it.The problem is not desiring Bosnia but an enlarged Balkan State lead by the Serbs. I highly doubt Austria(-Hungary) will want that. Neither will Russia want a dual monarchy they can't use as their puppet in the Balkans.
It certainly isn't a new idea. It was in fact called that even before the Balkan wars.Bulgaria as the Prussia of the Balkans? With all due respect for Bulgaria, it seems to me wrong to make such comparison.
This is not likely to happen. It doesn't make sense geographically, considering where Russia is located and it does not make sense politically, since the whole point of the Berlin treaty was to keep Bulgaria further away from the Aegean Sea and the straits.A Bulgaria more to the West rather than East (Including Vardar Macedonia, not Eastern Bulgaria) may balance it out for Bulgaria. Although this may cause issues with Serbia over Nis and Leskovac. Regardless, this Bulgaria may enter in a dual monarchy with Obrenovic. Again, if the Great Powers enforce it...
Or more likely, they unify with Bulgaria as Eastern Rumelia did OTL, leaving the proportion between the two kingdoms even more lopsided in favor of Bulgaria.Alright, I think I could see it, but that likely ends up with Macedonia and Rumelia as puppets of some Great Power and Bulgaria still yearning for them. The peace is definitely not a final one.
This is not a significant factor in the decisions of the Greater Powers, otherwise a similar arrangement would be carried out in OTL. The ethnic composition was only considered when it could be used to justify some arrangement and even then facts on the ground mattered little. For example, in OTL Britain used the preposterous Greek claims about them being a majority in northern Thrace to justify the separation of Eastern Rumelia from the rest of Bulgaria.This is an intriguing suggestion; Silistra was majority Turkish then, and the rest of Eastern Bulgaria had significant Turkish minorities (and IIRC still does).
Or more likely, they unify with Bulgaria as Eastern Rumelia did OTL, leaving the proportion between the two kingdoms even more lopsided in favor of Bulgaria.
This is not a significant factor in the decisions of the Greater Powers, otherwise a similar arrangement would be carried out in OTL. The ethnic composition was only considered when it could be used to justify some arrangement and even then facts on the ground mattered little. For example, in OTL Britain used the preposterous Greek claims about them being a majority in northern Thrace to justify the separation of Eastern Rumelia from the rest of Bulgaria.
It depends on what borders Macedonia would have. In the San Stefano borders the Bulgarians would be a majority or at least close to a majority, so a situation analogous to Eastern Rumelia is quite likely, though it's certainly possible that the Albanian populated territories in the west secede, as the Tamrash republic did in OTL. Of course if Macedonia has a direct border with Greece, a Greek armed intervention is also a possibility, alongside with a likely Serbian intervention.Rumelia I’ll grant you, but where a Macedonian state would develop would depend greatly on who was in charge. Honestly I’d expect it to devolve into chaos, with Greek, Bulgarian, and Albanian paramilitaries moving in and competing for influence. Could even spark an earlier war.
From the viewpoint of most great powers the best way to weaken such state is not to let it exist in the first place. An unified Bulgaria-Serbia with Macedonia would be substantially bigger than San Stefano Bulgaria and with fewer Muslims, a relatively even greater threat against the Ottomans.If Serbia and Bulgaria were unified, keeping that state as weak as possible would be a GP priority. It would be a shift in policy to directly support the Ottomans in such a way, but not completely implausible—it was still a power to be reckoned with, and nations like France had had fruitful relations with them before.
So weakening Serbia-Bulgaria by depriving them of Rumelia though Turkification would be an unlikely move for a great power, but not impossible.