Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Who is going to tolerate a joint Serbo-Bulgarian dual monarchy?
Assuming they accept it. They'll start unstable and need a ton of luck at the beginning. Bulgarians might be compensated with Macedonia and large parts of Thrace if they were to accept Serb rule over Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro.
gurgu
Banned
Well, the obrenovic were pro austrian so maybe no claims over bosnia for austrian support ( the dual monarchy would reflect the influence)
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
The problem is not desiring Bosnia but an enlarged Balkan State lead by the Serbs. I highly doubt Austria(-Hungary) will want that. Neither will Russia want a dual monarchy they can't use as their puppet in the Balkans.
gurgu
Banned
Well that's a hard one then... how about the following period? what would change assuming the dual monarchy forms, of course we would have a more strong naztion on the military view, still weak compared to the great powers but stronger than any balkan nation od OTL(considering bulgaria was the prussia of balkans...)
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
A dual monarchy is by far weaker than when it isn't that big. Mostly as it is unstable due to the question, who's issues matter more, Bulgaria or Serbia? Civil War is imminent. One net positive, there is a common enemy of Serbs and Bulgarians: Ottomans. That may unite the people of the two states.
Bulgaria as the Prussia of the Balkans? With all due respect for Bulgaria, it seems to me wrong to make such comparison.
gurgu
Banned
i think that the hate for ottomans will unite for a long period the two population helping an integration( the language wasn't that different, the religion was the same...)
In OTL bulgaria was called the " prussia of the Balkans" because was heavily militarized, and confronted to other nation of the balkans peninsula the best in strenght, in the second balkan war without ottoman/romanian intervention would have been able to take down the serbo-greek forces
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
I see... I was thinking differently about it then...
An (Orthodox) Yugoslav Identity may help to unite them but I am still sceptical about it...
gurgu
Banned
since you're on the forum more than me, and to respect the WI, bypassing the initial survival( maybe a new version of the santo steafno treaty to berlin?) how do you think the ATL would change the events arounf balkans until ww1?
Balkan politics in this era were entirely dominated by the Great Powers, is the main issue here. None of them but Russia will tolerate a gigantic, unified Slavic state and some like Austria-Hungary would be willing to go to war over this issue. San Stefano prompted a massive diplomatic backlash IOTL; an even greater Serbo-Bulgaria might spark a full-fledged panic.
gurgu
Banned
my idea to make happen this WI is like the bulgarian revised santo stefano:
instead of taking all of macedonia and thrace serbia would forma union with the northern part of bulgaria while macedonia and rumelia would become semi autonomous regions this way the powers could somehow approve the new country
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
It will be hostile to Greece mostly due to Bulgarians in the government (claims on Macedonia and Thrace). Serbs will have no issues with them. But Bulgarian opinion will thrive for any chance of survival. The main enemy will be divided. For Bulgaria it will be the Ottomans. If Bosnia is still in Habsburg hands then the Serbs will focus on them (assuming the Serbs agree on Bulgarian claims on Macedonia). Russia may turn out better in this case with regards to influence there. Both against the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary.
A Bulgaria more to the West rather than East (Including Vardar Macedonia, not Eastern Bulgaria) may balance it out for Bulgaria. Although this may cause issues with Serbia over Nis and Leskovac. Regardless, this Bulgaria may enter in a dual monarchy with Obrenovic. Again, if the Great Powers enforce it...
Alright, I think I could see it, but that likely ends up with Macedonia and Rumelia as puppets of some Great Power and Bulgaria still yearning for them. The peace is definitely not a final one.
This is an intriguing suggestion; Silistra was majority Turkish then, and the rest of Eastern Bulgaria had significant Turkish minorities (and IIRC still does).
Question: is Selanik included in this new Bulgaria?
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
No. Not at least in the Peace conference in 1878. Hence why a Greco-Bulgarian rivalry will be born. North Macedonia is still largely Slavic and will be added to Western Bulgaria and that will be the original Bulgaria.
Silistre will be more solidly Islamic with new refugees, making Bulgarias situation harder if they desire these lands
gurgu
Banned
well, if the make a jugoslav tsardom extending from belgrad to Varna ( jo to give them acces to the sea) while the ottomans will create a semi autonomous province in rumelia/macedonia ruled by a local the compromise might work.
i wonder if the new kingdom would seize the opportunity to annex this region in the young turks crysis like did bulgaria in OTL or might try another alliance with greece and montenegro to make the another balkan war which would be the second in this ATL. The main difference would be a more cooperating army lead by russian nor austrian general( based on who is influencing)
Dementor
Banned
At the very least two vital elements:
1. A Serbian elite that did not see themselves as the "Piedmont" of the South Slavs and which would be willing to live under an arrangement of equality or possibly even as the lesser partner.
2. The agreement of the Great Powers.
Both present significant difficulties, though one is somewhat easier.
This leaves Bulgaria in a clearly superior position, especially if they gain most of Macedonia. It's difficult to see Serbia being satisfied with this.
Such a country would be a natural Russian ally. Which is why of course neither A-H, nor the British Empire would accept it.
It certainly isn't a new idea. It was in fact called that even before the Balkan wars.
This is not likely to happen. It doesn't make sense geographically, considering where Russia is located and it does not make sense politically, since the whole point of the Berlin treaty was to keep Bulgaria further away from the Aegean Sea and the straits.
Or more likely, they unify with Bulgaria as Eastern Rumelia did OTL, leaving the proportion between the two kingdoms even more lopsided in favor of Bulgaria.
This is not a significant factor in the decisions of the Greater Powers, otherwise a similar arrangement would be carried out in OTL. The ethnic composition was only considered when it could be used to justify some arrangement and even then facts on the ground mattered little. For example, in OTL Britain used the preposterous Greek claims about them being a majority in northern Thrace to justify the separation of Eastern Rumelia from the rest of Bulgaria.
Rumelia I’ll grant you, but where a Macedonian state would develop would depend greatly on who was in charge. Honestly I’d expect it to devolve into chaos, with Greek, Bulgarian, and Albanian paramilitaries moving in and competing for influence. Could even spark an earlier war.
If Serbia and Bulgaria were unified, keeping that state as weak as possible would be a GP priority. It would be a shift in policy to directly support the Ottomans in such a way, but not completely implausible—it was still a power to be reckoned with, and nations like France had had fruitful relations with them before.
So weakening Serbia-Bulgaria by depriving them of Rumelia though Turkification would be an unlikely move for a great power, but not impossible.
Dementor
Banned
It depends on what borders Macedonia would have. In the San Stefano borders the Bulgarians would be a majority or at least close to a majority, so a situation analogous to Eastern Rumelia is quite likely, though it's certainly possible that the Albanian populated territories in the west secede, as the Tamrash republic did in OTL. Of course if Macedonia has a direct border with Greece, a Greek armed intervention is also a possibility, alongside with a likely Serbian intervention.
From the viewpoint of most great powers the best way to weaken such state is not to let it exist in the first place. An unified Bulgaria-Serbia with Macedonia would be substantially bigger than San Stefano Bulgaria and with fewer Muslims, a relatively even greater threat against the Ottomans.
Also what do you mean here under Rumelia? I thought the question was about the Ottomans retaining today's northeastern Bulgaria.