WI: Ivan IV Doesn't Kill His Son?

[rvbomally]

I know there have been a few threads about this in the past, but I have some questions about the possible consequences of Ivan IV not killing his son, Tsarevich Ivan Ivanovich, in a fit of rage. A possible PoD is the Tsarevich's wife wearing something different so Ivan IV isn't incited into attacking her. Anyway, my questions about the consequences of this PoD:

• Would the course of the Livonian War turn out differently? As with most wars, I believe that logistics is the deciding factor and having the Tsarevich survive may not actually do that much to help the Russian cause.
• Would serfdom still arise in Russia? In the other threads, people suggested that Boris Godunov would still be influential. However, I don't think Ivan Ivanovich is as malleable as his less capable brother, Feodor.
• How would Ivan Ivanovich deal with the famine of 1601–1603? Could this cause the fall of the Rurik Dynasty?
• Would Ivan Ivanovich modernize Russia to a greater extent than his OTL counterparts? I suppose this one has a lot to do with the outcome of the Livonian War.

Lastly, does anyone have any recommendations for books on late 16th/early 17th century eastern Europe?

 

[rvbomally]

Bump. No responses?

 

[BootOnFace]

Well the biggest thing is the Time of Troubles wouldn't happen, due to the Rurikovich dynasty not burning out. Then it gets so different you'll need a whole timeline to get it straight.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Check out my TL A More Personal Union starting about here. Although the POD is much earlier, it still involves Ivan Ivanovich surviving.

 

[Space Oddity]

Well the biggest thing is the Time of Troubles wouldn't happen, due to the Rurikovich dynasty not burning out. Then it gets so different you'll need a whole timeline to get it straight.

The Rurikovich House of DANIEL. Not the Rurikovichs. There were still PLENTY of Rurikovichs once the House of Daniel died out, despite Ivan's... efforts to the thin the herd. That was, quite arguably, part of the problem.

Now regarding the first poster's questions...

1) Regardless of Ivan V's character, the Livonian War is, by this time, a lost cause. Ivan IV's allowed too much mission creep, AND he's tied up Russian resources for six years in the oprichnina--essentially, a policy of national self-cannibalization. 16th century Russia would have a hard time winning against Poland-Lithuania in a limited war where the nation's resources were being effectively marshalled. An increasingly sprawling war where large amounts have been pissed away, and, oh, yes, they're also fighting Sweden, is futile.

2) Turning to everything else, it mostly rests on Ivan V's character--and that is something of an enigma. Some accounts suggest he is gifted, energetic and pleasant--others suggest he's Ivan Grozny junior. If he's the former, he MIGHT be able to steer his nation through the rough patch his father has gotten into. If the latter--Russia bleeds and there's a good chance you get something that makes the Time of Troubles look like pleasant.

3) Boris Godonov is definitely going to be a big man in the Russian government--he may very well get Ivan to enact many of his ideas. Ivan V will essentially have the same powerbase as Boris I, and the idea to bind peasants to land for revenue will still be there.

 

[January First-of-May]

I wouldn't quite call the Moscow branch of the Rurikoviches the "House of Daniel", since it's ridiculously confusing (through apparently the Russian version of this, Danilovichi, is actually occasionally used).
For the record, this particular branch descended from Alexander Nevsky; supposedly, when it died out IOTL the closest male-line relative was (who else but) Vasily Ivanovich Shuysky (descended from Alexander's brother), who indeed actually got the throne in 1606 (probably not only because of that genealogical accident).

 

[Space Oddity]

I wouldn't quite call the Moscow branch of the Rurikoviches the "House of Daniel", since it's ridiculously confusing (through apparently the Russian version of this, Danilovichi, is actually occasionally used).
For the record, this particular branch descended from Alexander Nevsky; supposedly, when it died out IOTL the closest male-line relative was (who else but) Vasily Ivanovich Shuysky (descended from Alexander's brother), who indeed actually got the throne in 1606 (probably not only because of that genealogical accident).

Well that, and the fact that he was a scheming, cagy bastard of the first water. ("Tsarevich Dmitri's death was clearly an accident." "Tsarevich Dmitri didn't die at all!" "Yes, he did, Godunov murdered him, that man is an impostor.")

 

[rvbomally]

Check out my TL A More Personal Union starting about here. Although the POD is much earlier, it still involves Ivan Ivanovich surviving.

Interesting! I'll be sure to check it out.

1) Regardless of Ivan V's character, the Livonian War is, by this time, a lost cause. Ivan IV's allowed too much mission creep, AND he's tied up Russian resources for six years in the oprichnina--essentially, a policy of national self-cannibalization. 16th century Russia would have a hard time winning against Poland-Lithuania in a limited war where the nation's resources were being effectively marshalled. An increasingly sprawling war where large amounts have been pissed away, and, oh, yes, they're also fighting Sweden, is futile.

So Russia doesn't get its access to the Baltic. Would the Russians handle defeat differently?

2) Turning to everything else, it mostly rests on Ivan V's character--and that is something of an enigma. Some accounts suggest he is gifted, energetic and pleasant--others suggest he's Ivan Grozny junior. If he's the former, he MIGHT be able to steer his nation through the rough patch his father has gotten into. If the latter--Russia bleeds and there's a good chance you get something that makes the Time of Troubles look like pleasant.

From what I've read, the Time of Troubles was pretty bad as it was, but an insane leader and a massive famine is a very bad combination. Perhaps Ivan Ivanovich fluctuated between the two, having moments of brilliance and moments of madness?

3) Boris Godonov is definitely going to be a big man in the Russian government--he may very well get Ivan to enact many of his ideas. Ivan V will essentially have the same powerbase as Boris I, and the idea to bind peasants to land for revenue will still be there.

Ah, good. That does take some guesswork out of the equation. This does leave the possibility of some of Godonov's policies not being implemented, but if Ivan V ITTL faces the same problems as Boris I then I can see serfdom being "essential."