You are right. Still, the UK may invoke it. Even if not, everyone in NATO would likely be as supportive of the UK as they can, short of intervention (which should not be necessary).
WI Ireland took advantage of the Falklands War to launch a sneak attack on Britain and liberate Ulster?
- Thread starter Charles III Stuart
- Start date
The UK won't invoke it anymore than they were willing to consider a UN mission in NI, they are a major power and won't need external intervention to handle the situation, it would add nothing to the event and in reality any "war" would be over before the respective governments could even brief their militaries. The force imbalance is just absurdly leveled in UK favour.
A leaflet raid on Dublin by a squadron of Vulcans would probably end any war, though the Irish ministers may not live to see it. I imagine the ordinary people would take issue with their stupidity.
(The Republic invading Northern Ireland would justify every Stupid Irish Joke ever told)
Derek Pullem
Donor
Why wouldn't the UK invoke Article 5? USA didn't need to invoke Article 5 after 9/11 did they did, mostly as a show of solidarity within the alliance (it's actually the only time it has been invoked!). I can see Thatcher doing something simialr just to underline to the Americans that even tacit acceptance of Irish "right" to Northern Ireland is unacceptable - and Reaganb will have to go with the flow as he can't break NATO over some crazy Irishmen.
The UK wont need help to defeat the military capacity of Eire it might not even need troops from the UK mainland. With UK military intelligence capacities on the Isle of Island at the time the MOD and RUC will know about this before the Irish can even mobilise, and will know the plan of attack in detail. The Irish would be blown away. The main casualty would not be the Irish forces and Government though but any support for reunification, provided the UK does not start shooting hapless Irish prisoners or taking it out on Catholics in Belfast, Armagh or Derry (etc)
because Islamist terrorism is a genuine threat Ireland is not it would look embarrassing and come across as weakness..
Derek Pullem
Donor
It's a ludicrous scenario but if a couple of thousand Irish troops crossed the border that is a genuine threat (see current affairs)
That might be more a problem in regards to Loyalist gangs than direct British action.
The best aid the US could provide to the Irish government would be to tell them to stop being so damned silly, return the troops to the barracks, and issue an official apology to the Government of the United Kingdom. Preferably something about rogue elements, or a communications mishap.
The only way I can see Ireland being remotely capable of something like this is if the (Marxist-Leninist) Official IRA somehow comes to power, aligns itself with the USSR, and builds up an army of liberation with Soviet support. Of course, if that happens, NATO will start looking very interested. And if said army of liberation starts marching northwards, it's a fair bet that events on the European mainland will soon be making it irrelevant. But AFAIK this is a pretty unlikely scenario.
If this, remarkably unlikely, scenario comes to pass Irish-Americans are likely to turn themselves inside out arguing for support of a communist regime in the Republic while simultaneously condemning the one in Cuba 🤔
There would be so many things needing PODs for that to happen it makes my head hurt.
If the Irish government was to attempt this the UK could just send troops to cover the incursion , by this time the loyalist paramilitaries will be destroying Dublin etc with the same tactics the IRA used in Belfast ,London ,Warrington etc , plus a Royal navy frigate outside every port sending ships to the UK instead of Ireland for customs checks . RAF tornado f3 intercepting all incoming and outgoing flights, tornado strike aircraft hitting all barracks and storage facilities not to mention power stations and TV and radio stations . For all the bravery of the Irish soldiers 25 lb guns against 155mm is no contest AML armoured cars against scorpion and scimitar light tanks is no contest against a chiefton well enough said, only the criminally insane would attempt this.
Far too many to be plausible - and yet it's about the only way I can think of to get an Irish government that would want to forcibly liberate Northern Ireland, and also believe it had a chance of doing it.
Maybe spill a truck load of LSD into the Guinness brewery without anyone noticing until it's too late?
Ok, fuck it, let's do this.
Taking advantage of the vagueness of the original post I'm going to create the only scenario I can see that could possibly lead to this happening, and not involve Ireland winding up invaded and overrun by teatime, and to do it I'm going to throw rationality and sense out the window and get as close as I can without it literally involving ASB (but it will be fecking close).
To start with, you have the Falklands war go a hell of a lot worse for the British at the offset. In this scenario the Exocet's wind up pulling a golden BB hit on every British naval vessel they hit, and firing them even more often, sinking them with all hands. We also in this scenario have the Argentines be much more aggressive in their deployment of the missiles and, for good measure, the Argentine submarine fleet winds up being a much greater and capable threat.
You start having enough British naval vessels go to directly connect to Poseidon's wifi with all hands that the war becomes immensely unpopular and Thatcher starts getting backed into a corner. You then have a Royal die (IIRC Prince Pizza Express in Woking was involved in the war somewhere) so that the British people have to see the Queen grieving on the Telly which is the final nail in the coffin to just walk away from the war and take the loss. Thatcher is consigned to the dustbin of history much earlier and the UK winds up with a different interim PM until the next election which sees Labour win a landslide.
Freshly traumatized from the conflict, the British people develop a very strong isolationist mindset wanting to just get rid of all the little pockets of empire before they have to see more of their children die, so you see the likes of Hong Kong handed over early and anything else that they feel there is a possibility of a fight needed to keep just being thrown to the winds. In this calculation, Westminster takes a look at the ongoing hell scape that is Northern Ireland in 1982 and decides "Fuck it, we agreed Sunningdale, that's going to be it, they can sort themselves out" and does the equivalent of the US leaving Saigon with British officials and troops, leaving behind whatever they can't carry. Britain basically declares Northern Ireland its own state and wishes them good luck.
This, naturally, devolves into an orgy of violence and destruction that makes the rest of the Troubles look like a mild disagreement between under 12's camogie teams and the entire world is left stunned at this. Britain, choosing to refuse to do anything to resolve the matter continues to do the international version of sticking its fingers in its ears and humming loudly so the only other player in the area that could maybe do anything is put under international pressure to go in and bring peace, leading to the scenario where against their will and probably calling up not only the entire FCA but also any retired members who are still in possession of two arms and two legs, the Irish Defense Forces is sent into Northern Ireland.
To say this does not go well would be an understatement as you would have the PUL community, who already feeling pissed off and betrayed by London would throw every bit of anger at the invading Fenians in the sort of persistent guerilla war that even the best equipped militaries do not want to fight. You have the CNR community that, while some may feel relieved, has as its main armed group a terrorist organization that views Dublin as illegitimate and the Defense Forces as much a legitimate target as the British forces. The only difference being that Ireland won't hesitate to call in the Blue Helmets to help out in this matter, which I personally am picturing leading to the "hilarious" situation of Congolese, Cypriot and Lebanese forces in time doing Peace-Keeping in Ireland.
Convoluted? Yes. Relying on so many things to go exactly one way and one way only? Yup. So borderline with ASB that the scenario counts as a Frontier Worker under EU employment laws? Ja. But there you go, the only non-ASB way I could see this happening.
Taking advantage of the vagueness of the original post I'm going to create the only scenario I can see that could possibly lead to this happening, and not involve Ireland winding up invaded and overrun by teatime, and to do it I'm going to throw rationality and sense out the window and get as close as I can without it literally involving ASB (but it will be fecking close).
To start with, you have the Falklands war go a hell of a lot worse for the British at the offset. In this scenario the Exocet's wind up pulling a golden BB hit on every British naval vessel they hit, and firing them even more often, sinking them with all hands. We also in this scenario have the Argentines be much more aggressive in their deployment of the missiles and, for good measure, the Argentine submarine fleet winds up being a much greater and capable threat.
You start having enough British naval vessels go to directly connect to Poseidon's wifi with all hands that the war becomes immensely unpopular and Thatcher starts getting backed into a corner. You then have a Royal die (IIRC Prince Pizza Express in Woking was involved in the war somewhere) so that the British people have to see the Queen grieving on the Telly which is the final nail in the coffin to just walk away from the war and take the loss. Thatcher is consigned to the dustbin of history much earlier and the UK winds up with a different interim PM until the next election which sees Labour win a landslide.
Freshly traumatized from the conflict, the British people develop a very strong isolationist mindset wanting to just get rid of all the little pockets of empire before they have to see more of their children die, so you see the likes of Hong Kong handed over early and anything else that they feel there is a possibility of a fight needed to keep just being thrown to the winds. In this calculation, Westminster takes a look at the ongoing hell scape that is Northern Ireland in 1982 and decides "Fuck it, we agreed Sunningdale, that's going to be it, they can sort themselves out" and does the equivalent of the US leaving Saigon with British officials and troops, leaving behind whatever they can't carry. Britain basically declares Northern Ireland its own state and wishes them good luck.
This, naturally, devolves into an orgy of violence and destruction that makes the rest of the Troubles look like a mild disagreement between under 12's camogie teams and the entire world is left stunned at this. Britain, choosing to refuse to do anything to resolve the matter continues to do the international version of sticking its fingers in its ears and humming loudly so the only other player in the area that could maybe do anything is put under international pressure to go in and bring peace, leading to the scenario where against their will and probably calling up not only the entire FCA but also any retired members who are still in possession of two arms and two legs, the Irish Defense Forces is sent into Northern Ireland.
To say this does not go well would be an understatement as you would have the PUL community, who already feeling pissed off and betrayed by London would throw every bit of anger at the invading Fenians in the sort of persistent guerilla war that even the best equipped militaries do not want to fight. You have the CNR community that, while some may feel relieved, has as its main armed group a terrorist organization that views Dublin as illegitimate and the Defense Forces as much a legitimate target as the British forces. The only difference being that Ireland won't hesitate to call in the Blue Helmets to help out in this matter, which I personally am picturing leading to the "hilarious" situation of Congolese, Cypriot and Lebanese forces in time doing Peace-Keeping in Ireland.
Convoluted? Yes. Relying on so many things to go exactly one way and one way only? Yup. So borderline with ASB that the scenario counts as a Frontier Worker under EU employment laws? Ja. But there you go, the only non-ASB way I could see this happening.
Ramontxo
Donor
First point, the Black and Tans weren't Irish. There are a lot more points but I am going to stop here not to venture in actual politics.
Some were, just like the RIC, just like the Irish in the British Army. And I think looking at the time frame the argument is that given Ireland was still part of the UK and British Empire at the time they weren't "foreign" or "invaders".
Several points, an insurgency is not the same as an army. There was no glorious actions, the waving of flags and the beating of drums, the stuff which makes glorious paintings.
Singing "my dad's a provo" in a smoky pub is not the same as erecting massive statues at every corner of your city.
Adding to that, it was quite a small affair. Wikipedia lists 500 dead on the Irish side for the war of independance and about 800 for the civil war. That is ridiculously tiny! Even for a country the size of Ireland, it's insignificant. For comparison, the English civil war caused 80k dead, and that's probably just soldiers' death.
Second, as pointed by sparky, the irish war for independance, and was a civil war, and that is much different in term of outlook as well. You need to defend the nation against foreign invaders.
You can't go all "us vs them" like in WWI France, because them is a good chunk of your population. If anything, getting through a civil war, and getting to the other side with a solid democracy (and not a one party military dictatorship) will probably make a country more pacifist, as wounds need to be healed.
The army almost needs to be disbanded to not look like a threat to the defeated party. On the other hand, after a foreign war, you need to keep the army well provisioned in case the bastards try at it again.
I dare say there was little chance of anyone, especially the UK, trying their hands at invading the Republic after the independance.
Ireland, in the last 1000 years, never needed a force to defend itself, a nation at arms. The IRA was, according to wiki, about 50k soldiers strong. I'm pretty sure I've seen estimates of Rory O'Connor's army being about that big as well. All that underlines my point that Ireland does not have a formal martial tradition
Ramontxo
Donor
Just before I stop discussing this. Yes there were Irish people in both sides. No the Irish War of independence was not a civil war. It was an liberation war. The question about Ireland being an Home Nation or a Colony was decided by Westminster and the UK government when they decline to implement Parliament approved laws giving Home Rule to Ireland. As stated above I shall not proceed with this discussion.