WI: Idi Amin destroys the causeway

In March 1979, the Tanzanian invasion of Uganda seemed to be going well. Tanzanian forces, with help from Ugandan rebels, had captured the town of Masaka, leaving the capital of Kampala vulnerable. However, to get to Kampala from Masaka, they would have to take a causeway through some swampland. Without this causeway, going through the swamp would take months. Idi Amin, President of Uganda, was presented with a plan to destroy the causeway. But emboldened by a recent success at the Battle of Tororo, he had already decided on a counteroffensive, and so rejected the plan. Ugandan government forces, accompanied by Libyan and Palestinian auxiliaries, set out to recapture Masaka.

This proved a costly mistake. Despite initial setbacks, the Tanzanians and their rebel allies triumphed at the Battle of Lukaya, destroying the morale of the Ugandan Army and opening the way to Kampala.

What if Amin had given the go-ahead to destroy the causeway?
 
Are you asking how the war would have gone had the causeway been destroyed, or are you assuming that Amin wins, and asking what the consequences of that would be?
 
In March 1979, the Tanzanian invasion of Uganda seemed to be going well. Tanzanian forces, with help from Ugandan rebels, had captured the town of Masaka, leaving the capital of Kampala vulnerable. However, to get to Kampala from Masaka, they would have to take a causeway through some swampland. Without this causeway, going through the swamp would take months.

well this bit in bold is from the wikipedia article on the conflict but I did some more reading as this was a very interesting question and I don't see the destruction of the causeway as a particular problem. Even if it was destroyed, it means that the Tanzanians can't attack over it into Kampala on that route, but:

1. They can attack Kampala from other routes

2. The Ugandans and Libyans can't counterattack from Kampala towards Masaka.

This would be important. The course of the war was probably longer than it would otherwise have been had Tanzania planned on going to Kampala from the very beginning of the counteroffensive in November 1978 but they didn't. Instead what happened was:

- the Tanzanians countered and the demoralized Ugandans retreated.

- the Tanzanians took the border town of Mutukula to ensure they held the high ground to deny the Ugandans further opportunity to counterattack

- after Amin refused to renounce claims on the Kagera area, the Tanzanians then decided to occupy southern Uganda (Masaka and Mbarara) in the belief and hope that this would inspire an uprising against him. This they started in mid-February.

- when no uprising happened and the Libyans came to Amin's help, the Tanzanians decided to push for the capture of Kampala. At this point they had been pursuing the war with 5 brigades: 201st, 205th, 206th, 207th and 208th. The 206th brigade had went from Mbarara into northwestern Uganda towards Masindi, while 205th apparently went from Masaka and were to capture Mpigi and Mityana and launch an attack on the capital from there but plans changed when the Tanzanians commanders wanted the Ugandan Tiger Regiment at Mubende dealt with and so they were then sent towards Mubende to link up after with the 206th's sweep I believe. On the way to Mubende they got into a 3 week long battle with entrenched Ugandan troops in Sembabule :

tghbthg.jpg


The 201st, 207th and 208th meanwhile were intended to go on to Kampala more directly with the 207th going to Entebbe, and meanwhile they sent "the 201st Brigade directly across the causeway over the swamp while the better-quality 208th Brigade skirted the western edge of the swamp as an alternative in case the causeway was blocked or destroyed."

It was the Uganda-Libyan counterattack that seems to have happened after Amin rejected the destruction of the causeway that changed this Tanzanian attack plan as the 208th had to swing back south to assist the 201st in repelling the attack:

800px-Libyan_troop_movements_in_Uganda%2C_1979.svg.png


So if Amin destroys the causeway, then the 201st is stuck, but there is no counterattack and the 207th move on Entebbe, the 205th battle it out at Sembabule and the 208th likely continue on their own advance which takes them around the swamp and into Kampala from the northwest. With the 201st stalled, the Tanzanians probably get the 206th, 205th, 208th and 207th into the Kampala from the north, northwest/west and south respectively, leaving the eastern approaches to the city open for the Libyans to retreat to Jinja as they had planned. The battle that did take place after Amin refused to destroy the causeway probably occurs much closer to or actually in Kampala in TTL instead (probably in Mpigi which is where the Tanzanians were hoping to decisively defeat the Ugandans to avoid fighting in a big city like Kampala).

Maybe the war last a few weeks longer but can't see it lasting months longer.

By the way in the process of looking up more info on this I came across some fascinating resources:

https://wwiiafterwwii.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/idi-amins-shermans/

https://weaponsandwarfare.com/2016/12/19/uganda-tanzania-war/


https://www.monitor.co.ug/SpecialRe...oppled-Amin/688342-2293306-110gxl9/index.html

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/news/T...p-soldiers/1840340-2334498-349rmgz/index.html

https://www.monitor.co.ug/SpecialRe...-three-days/688342-2314328-nlq1q7z/index.html

https://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines...anzania-war/689844-3002788-12ob9gk/index.html
 
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Using the map from the Wikipedia article I plotted the advances of the 5 brigades. The plots are based on the information in the wikipedia articles on the war itself and the individual battles. It really is quite an interesting and tragic conflict (lots of mistakes and inexperience on both sides and by all participants) and reading up on it, the destruction of the causeway seems like it definitely would have been far less consequential than the failure of the Libyan/Ugandan/PLO force to press the counterattack that was aimed at Masaka but stalled at Lukaya (which is where the Tanzanians counterattacked and essentially won the war by breaking the Libyans and Ugandans). Had they retaken Masaka they apparently could have threatened the entire Tanzanian campaign into Uganda itself. Thankfully they didn't and Idi Amin's reign of terror was finally ended:

Kagera-Liberation War Tanzania-Uganda.png
 
In the event that Amin does destroy the causeway it could result in some real foreseeable problems.

1. - The Tanzanian troops would be unable to directly advance towards Entebbe without approaching the outskirts of Kampala first.
2. - Would the Tanzanian troops decide to advance on Kampala without capturing Entebbe which would be defacto Suicide as they would be exposed to possible flanking attacks from the Ugandan and Libyan troops. And failing to capture Entebbe would allow Libya (Or any country that suddenly decides to assist Amin) to send in reinforcements.
3. - What if the Ugandan and Libyan troops manage to set up ambushes along the only routes to Kampala from the west (Destroying the causeway could easily open up such a opportunity for such an attack).

What would likely happen is that for Tanzania to approach Entebbe is to go through Nsangi then southwest to Mpigi in order to do so with the main route to Kampala from the west if successfully secured quickly (Depending on the effectiveness of the Ugandan and Libyan troops). If they successfully capture Entebbe through the routes I mentioned Tanzania will still be able to advance onto Kampala with no threat of any flank attacks or any Libyan reinforcements.

The actual reasons that Tanzanian troops decided to capture Entebbe (After they had advanced to Mpigi) before advancing onto Kampala was to prevent the Ugandan and Libyan troops from being able to launch a flanking attack when the Tanzanians launched their assault on Kampala and to prevent additional Libyan reinforcements from entering the country.
 
In the event that Amin does destroy the causeway it could result in some real foreseeable problems.

1. - The Tanzanian troops would be unable to directly advance towards Entebbe without approaching the outskirts of Kampala first.

The impression I got from at least some of the articles was that the 207th was directed towards Entebbe through the swamp and not via the causeway (perhaps there was some minor roads or so? Unless they meant the 207th was meant to advance along the causeway up to a point and then veer off towards Entebbe)

2. - Would the Tanzanian troops decide to advance on Kampala without capturing Entebbe which would be defacto Suicide as they would be exposed to possible flanking attacks from the Ugandan and Libyan troops. And failing to capture Entebbe would allow Libya (Or any country that suddenly decides to assist Amin) to send in reinforcements.

The original plan was to approach Kampala from 3 directions and leave the way open for the Libyans to exit via Jinja. Entebbe was already being used to ferry in Libyan reinforcements, so I don't see that changing and by this point Amin is very unlikely to get assistance from anywhere else; certainly not the United States, France or the United Kingdom and the USSR actually stopped sending equipment to Amin during the conflict. Meanwhile China sent none to Amin and sent a token amount of equipment to Nyerere of Tanzania. Libya herself was also becoming heavily involved in Chad (much to France's disapproval and France's active counter-intervention). Libya had already made enemies with Egypt by this point. In fact, Idi Amin's behaviour had also managed to get him on France, the US, Israel and Kenya's shit list and his regime was generally regarded very poorly after the Air France hijacking and his role in it.

The Libyan forces in Uganda suffered numerous problems including massive linguistics barriers as none spoke Swahili, few spoke English and most persons in Uganda simply don't know Arabic. So for example when the Tanzanians surprised the Ugandans and Libyans at Entebbe in OTL, the Libyans were so disrupted by it and so out of their depths at this point that they didn't know the way to Kampala from Entebbe and could only go around asking residents for directions by just saying "Kampala". Local residents either attacked them or pretended to show them the way by leading them to the Tanzanians (this is also another factor that cannot be overlooked - once the Tanzanians entered Uganda the locals at first quietly supported them - posting messages on trees asking them not to leave Masaka and Mbarara lest Amin massacre them (which he actually promised to do in a broadcast) and then more openly by providing water and supplies to the Tanzanians and Ugandan rebels (and carrying their equipment) in their advances from Masaka and Mbarara and by providing information on the whereabouts of Amin's soldiers and cheering and celebrating whenever they entered a new town).

Additionally in a lot of the articles I posted (as well as articles on the individual battles) what stands out is that the Libyans and PLO never stood their ground once their Ugandan allies retreated (which makes sense, why the heck would they want to defend a position in Uganda if the Ugandan Army itself was fleeing? It's not like they are defending their own country). The Tanzanian forces also apparently never shied away from combating the Libyans and even sought to engage them whenever they could (for various reasons, one was the challenge by Gaddafi, another was the fact that for some in the Tanzanian forces they saw the Libyans as attempting to convert the Ugandans and I suspect that part of the motivation was that they resented the intrusion of Libya into East African affairs).

If the causeway is destroyed then since the Tanzanians anticipated this (by having the 208th directed to advance in a sweep around the swamp) they would probably continue with the contingency and perhaps utilize 205th and 206th in their sweep through northwestern Uganda to come in to Kampala from the north. Additionally with the causeway destroyed the Tanzanians can leave far fewer forces in Lukaya because just as how they can't attack Kampala from the causeway, so the Ugandans and Libyans also couldn't attack into Lukaya/Masaka from Kampala via the same causeway. So instead of just the 201st (which apparently was one of the least experienced/greener of the Tanzanians units) facing the Ugandan Tiger Regiment, they might well send both the 207th and large parts of the 201st north to account for the Tiger Regiment which means the engagement at Sembabule probably doesn't last nearly as long as 3 weeks.


So original battle plan:

upload_2019-12-9_11-37-11.png


(purple is a move that I think was intended to happen (and might have happened but I haven't seen it mentioned) via the 208th's original movement)

Possible battle plan (one of many variations open to the Tanzanians really) that could have happened if the causeway was destroyed:

upload_2019-12-9_11-38-55.png


Nyerere never wanted to Libyans to be completely encircled as he wanted them to have an escape route (which was a good idea as it meant they had less motivation to fight like a cornered animal if they could flee). So either a move into Kampala from the west, northwest and north would leave the Jinja route open, or the Tanzanians opt to encircle Kampala and the route left open for the Libyans is Entebbe with Nyerere sending a message to Gaddafi as in OTL that Libyan evacuations would be allowed. In the latter case if Gaddafi decides to double down on stupidity (something he was very capable of) and not withdraw his forces via Entebbe then when Kampala is liberated, the Libyans have major problems:

1. In OTL, the imminent collapse of Amin's regime saw the Ugandan Army units in Tororo (that had previously defeated a rebel Ugandan push from Kenya during the war) defect en masse to the rebels. The fall of Kampala will embolden Ugandan Army units to switch sides or completely demoralize them as in OTL such that they won't put up heavy resistance and will likely try to take on cover as "civilians". If defection to the rebels happens in Entebbe, then the Libyans might find themselves stuck with an enemy in their midst.

2. The Tanzanians will now have a large portion of the Ugandan civilians on their side who will likely assist them into Entebbe in moves meant to surprise the Libyans and Amin loyalists (in the moves towards Masaka and around to Mubuendi the Tanzanians had the aid of local persons as guides and people from areas near the border in Tanzania who could speak to locals in Uganda and gain very useful information).

3. - What if the Ugandan and Libyan troops manage to set up ambushes along the only routes to Kampala from the west (Destroying the causeway could easily open up such a opportunity for such an attack).

Given the comedy of errors that the Ugandans and Libyans did in the counterattack towards Masaka and the fact that regional divisions meant that Ugandan troops from northern Uganda did not see this as "their" fight but as a southern affair - some units even thought that because the Suicide Battalion had started the whole war by invading Tanzania, then it was the Suicide Battalion's job to defend places like Masaka - I doubt that they would be able to effectively do this in such a way as to completely stall the Tanzanians on the way to Kampala (much less endanger the whole venture). I think their best bet was dislodging the Tanzanians at Masaka when they had the chance of the counterattack but they let that opportunity slip in a massive way and the Tanzanians regrouped very effectively (reading about the battles what stands out is that the Tanzanians consistently out-thought their opponents, in the battle of Lira for example the commander there ingeniously decided to approach Lira from an unexpected direction (and managed to get transportation across the lake, again using his head) and to use a portion of his forces as bait and as a blocking force).


What would likely happen is that for Tanzania to approach Entebbe is to go through Nsangi then southwest to Mpigi in order to do so with the main route to Kampala from the west if successfully secured quickly (Depending on the effectiveness of the Ugandan and Libyan troops). If they successfully capture Entebbe through the routes I mentioned Tanzania will still be able to advance onto Kampala with no threat of any flank attacks or any Libyan reinforcements.

Indeed, as the road network would seem to allow them to branch off and attack Entebbe anyway before advancing on Kampala, like so:

upload_2019-12-9_12-50-1.png


The actual reasons that Tanzanian troops decided to capture Entebbe (After they had advanced to Mpigi) before advancing onto Kampala was to prevent the Ugandan and Libyan troops from being able to launch a flanking attack when the Tanzanians launched their assault on Kampala and to prevent additional Libyan reinforcements from entering the country.

More the former than the latter I would say as Nyerere definitely told Gaddafi that Libyan troops could be airlifted from Jinja. Which suggests that if the Libyans really wanted to they could fly reinforcements in via Jinja as well (there was also an airbase at Nakangole too I think from what I was reading).
 
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One of the reasons that the Tanzanian troops allowed a escape route for the Libyans was to avoid the possibility of other Arab countries from entering the conflict (If there is any Arab countries willing or completely insane enough to support Amin). Gadaffi would face a real major problem if he didn't pull the Libyan troops out of Uganda when he did.

The Libyans flying in reinforcements via Jinja would easily be hampered by both the length of the runway and the fact that it's unpaved which would limit the types of aircraft that can be used to being any reinforcements in as well as the types of equipment that the reinforcements can use (Unless the equipment can be safely airdropped in). Bringing reinforcements in via Nakasongola would permit more types of equipment to be brought in (Except real heavy armor) but the real problem is the distance between the airbase and Kampala (Almost 80 miles distance) which if the Tanzania troops anticipate such a move would allow them to set up ambushes along the route.

The question regarding who would be willing to support and provide any form of assistance to Amin at this point would be which countries that he did not piss off and would be likely insane enough to attempt such a move.

Considering that the Ugandan Economy and Infrastructure had been effectively run into the ground by the time the Uganda-Tanzania War had started Amin in the event that he did not start any war with Tanzania would have seen his regime completely self-destruct and be overthrown anyway.
 
Considering that the Ugandan Economy and Infrastructure had been effectively run into the ground by the time the Uganda-Tanzania War had started Amin in the event that he did not start any war with Tanzania would have seen his regime completely self-destruct and be overthrown anyway.

Now that's an interesting scenario. What might that look like?
 
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