Could the Taurus be a strong and defendible frontier assuming strong Mamluks and Safavids? Would this OE be even more european focused and more prone to islamization of it? Would it be viable long term? Would they have an easier time modernising with an incentive to exploit the balkans more efficiently and having less backward elites in far away provinces?
WI How strong would be the Ottoman Empire if they never expand east of the Taurus?
- Thread starter EnvarKadri
- Start date
Yes - the Byzantines had a good 400 year run at roughly the Taurus border.
why so?
The Taurus border OE - yes.
No guarantee they would be, But a smaller empire may be a bit more nimble.
The Ottomans usually preferred the status quo when it came to religion - the christians provided jizya extra tax and/or children for the Janissaries. There's a reason the Balkans was the most profitable part of the Ottoman Empire and they never really recovered adter losing it 1878.
A more Europe-focusing Ottoman Empire might advance further into Ukraine, take Malta and/or Sicily, southern Italy and Croatia and keep parts of Hungary longer, but they won't be converting people.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
It would make it only more dangerous than it already is. The Ottomans are forced to cut their expansion from North of the Sava river. A dangerous Safavid-Mamluk Alliance is a possibility. The advantage is that the Ottomans are Militarily advanced. They can horribly crush them. But should they fail to expand after such victory then the enemy will take advantage of it and adapt.
It is only a matter of time until we get an early 7th century Roman-Sassanid War were the Safavids in this case with the Mamluks could burn down cities in Central Anatolia.
So it isnt sustainable? I was think of an escenario that would further develop the otl arab and easter anatolian lands of the Ottman empire. I thought if the Mamluks survived and keep yhe levant and if the Safavids keep irak and the alevi parts of anatolia those areas would develpo a lot more than in otl, since those areas are far more important to the Mamluks and Safavids then to the ottomans that held the area as a backwater, having their center in the remote balkans.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
That's true. The region and the Ottomans suffered from the war in 1877-1878 to the point of starting the development again.
Croatia, (Southern) Italy becomes an option to take. Hungary gets a bit overextended. Ukraine is out of question without direct rule over the Crimea and Moldova (which ain't gonna happen).
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
The odds of the region developing is likely. But turning into a complete warzone is as likely as well. Azerbaijan was rather a developed part of Persia but suffered a lot due to the Ottoman-Persian Wars.
So it would require the really unlikely case of all of them leaving each other be.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Yep. Which is not impossible but is unlikely. If the Mamluks and Safavids fight each other the Ottomans will refrain. None of them have the capacity to expand in each others lands.
So assume Selim loses at Chaldiran in 1514, and Safavid-Mamluk alliance successfully defends Mamluks as well. Suleiman inherits a Turkey stuck in Bayazid II-s borders.
What next? Would failure to expand to Syria lead to collapse of Ottoman Turkey, or would Turkey stay together?
What next? Would failure to expand to Syria lead to collapse of Ottoman Turkey, or would Turkey stay together?
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Selim I losing at Çaldiran is as good as impossible. That is the same like 10,000 strong British Army with artillery and Muskets losing to 4,000 strong Zulus in South Africa in open battle.
Something stupid needs to happen to the Ottomans losing. And a loss in Çaldiran does not lead to a collapse. It would be like what Isandlwana would be for the British.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Seeing how easily the Ottomans beat the Safavids and how barely the Safavids were saved from destruction (Ismail rescued in the battlefield from a certain death, Selims soldiers started shooting at his tent to force a return to Istanbul), the Mamluks were a sort alike target. No experience with muskets amd artillery and Cavalry based army.