WI: Gerald Ford Decided to Pull a Grover Cleveland
- Thread starter Halv Cyra
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Ford will inherit a disastrous economy and an unstable world. He would most likely maintain detente, only going harder on the USSR if there is an unavoidable reason to be, other than popularity with the conservatives. He needs to continue his WIN initiative and avoid extreme tax cuts, and the economy will most likely recover. 1984 is a tossup, although it most definitely depends on the economy. If Ford can lead it to a state better than Reagan in 1984, the Republicans actually have a chance at winning in 1984. If not, it's President Hart or President Mondale due to fatigue and a need for fresh faces. Either way, the GOP nomination is either going to be the VP to Ford (probably Bush or Rumsfeld, if Reagan isn't part of a unity ticket) or somebody on the opposing side of the GOP spectrum, i.e., if it's Rummy (or Ronnie) it'll be Dole and if it's Bush it'll be Kemp or maybe Bill Brock (or Reagan, again, who gets the nod hinges on him).
The likeliest scenarios for this are either that Reagan narrowly beats Ford in 1976 then loses to Carter; or (for whatever reason -- Eagle Claw succeeding, no hostage crisis, or no Iranian Revolution at all) Carter winning reelection and there being a vacuum in 1984 on the Republican side. Ford would not have been able to beat Reagan in 1980 under OTL circumstances.
Didn't Reagan say that Ford was the one person who could have denied him the nomination in 1980?
That's his untested opinion.
Reagan seems to have at least partially bought into a political fear of everything seeming like it was working too well for you. Nixon had that right around 1972 and went to great lengths to make sure that he would win re-election (sabotaging strong candidates, expanding the war in Southeast Asia, and putting the economy in hyperdrive to avoid a recession). I don't think Ford would have an easy time beating Reagan in 1980, but he definitely could have made the primaries viscous.
He'll simply divide the moderate vote in the primaries with Bush, Baker, Anderson, etc., and thus make it even easier for Reagan to win the nomination.
The other moderates are not likely to drop out in Ford's favor. They have two arguments against him: (1) after all, he lost to Carter in 1976; and (2) he will only be eligible for one more term so even if he is elected in 1980 the GOP will have to go through the selection process yet again in 1984.
Ricardolindo
Banned
Sorry for the late reply but could you, please, give me a source for this statement of Reagan?
I'm not so sure. Regarding those two arguments: 1. The loss was narrow, in a period of recession and influenced by the Watergate scandal and its aftermath. 2. I don't think that's very relevant.
I think that Ford is the most likely post-World War II President to make a Cleveland-style comeback. However, I think that it would be more likely if Reagan couldn't run in 1980 for health reasons.
I think the only real way for Ford to have a real shot in 1980 is he has to not lose to either Reagan or Carter in 1976 and not run at all that year. Let's say Betty Ford gets cancer again or her substance abuse problems become more severe in 1976 than they were in OTL that Gerald Ford decides to forgo a run that year. So Reagan likely wins the primaries over Vice-President Nelson Rockefeller and then loses to Carter in the general election. Then by 1979-80, Betty Ford's health improves and so Gerald decides to run against President Carter. That IMO is the best scenario for him to have a chance to win in 1980.
Yeah that's not a bad idea. The problem with the "Ford pulls a Cleveland" WI is that Ford was never really popular with the exception of the month before he pardoned Nixon. And if he runs in 1980, it's hard enough for him to win with the pardon, the fall of Saigon, and the bad economy on his record. A loss to either Reagan or Carter would only make his chances worse.
So if he didn't even run in 1976, it might make a run in 1980 easier.
Ricardolindo
Banned
Are you refering to the Republican primaries or to the Presidential election? If the latter, given how bad the situation was under Carter, I am sure that many Americans looked back and saw Ford as a relatively good President and, regardless, almost any Republican would have defeated Carter in 1980.
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Jimmy Carter simply wasn’t that good a candidate. Great person to be friends with, horrible, horrible way over his head. (Nice ideas that were lost to bureaucracy and practicality.) Ford performed surprisingly well in debates and came off as reasonably intelligent, and did the best he could in a America after Watergate.
I can see Reagan, or better yet another GOP winning over Carter. Come 1980, the Dems probably rule the 80s.
However, for this, let Carter win by an hair, and his term pretty up goes the way of OTL and Ford can beat Carter into next week.
I can see Reagan, or better yet another GOP winning over Carter. Come 1980, the Dems probably rule the 80s.
However, for this, let Carter win by an hair, and his term pretty up goes the way of OTL and Ford can beat Carter into next week.
If Ford got the 1980 GOP nomination, what would the Electoral Map look like in a rematch with Carter?
Mostly likely the same as OTL except that Carter does better in the South. Even so he still loses in a landslide.