WI: First Mongol Invasion of Japan Succeeds

[rvbomally]

I've been reading some old threads on "no kamikaze" and something I've seen repeatedly is that while the Japanese were prepared for that second encounter, the Mongol invasion of Japan in 1274 almost succeeded in taking all of Kyushu. The only reason this failed was because a storm caused the Mongol captains to leave; this only succeeded in destroying the ships.

What if this storm had not occurred? I think the Mongols would be more focused on Asia and be somewhat more daring in naval matters, but these mostly lead to failure. As for Japan. I think that they would become even more involved in overseas affairs and we may not see isolation to the same level as OTL. I have no clue what the butterflies would do to Europe or the Middle East.

 

[iori]

Even without the Storm the Mongols Fleet was frankly ridiculous; based on archaeological evidence the vast majority of them were basically just refurbished river ships and junks that were never meant or designed for operation on the open ocean.

 

[Woolly Mammoth]

Even without the Storm the Mongols Fleet was frankly ridiculous; based on archaeological evidence the vast majority of them were basically just refurbished river ships and junks that were never meant or designed for operation on the open ocean.

They did have seized Korean ships though - they were perfectly seaworthy and safe to use as part of a fleet. Besides which they might manage to get even a makeshift fleet across to Japan if weather is on their side.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

I remember doing a bit of research on this. If I'm right, there were 30,000 Mongol warriors, and the Koreans involved were all sailors who stayed in the boats. 30,000 is not a tremendous amount of people, and doesn't seem like it'll be enough to conquer the whole country. I'll assume the Mongols will send reinforcements for the actual conquest of the rest of the country, and that the first invasion will just be a beach-head.

 

[rvbomally]

I remember doing a bit of research on this. If I'm right, there were 30,000 Mongol warriors, and the Koreans involved were all sailors who stayed in the boats. 30,000 is not a tremendous amount of people, and doesn't seem like it'll be enough to conquer the whole country. I'll assume the Mongols will send reinforcements for the actual conquest of the rest of the country, and that the first invasion will just be a beach-head.

I agree that it won't be enough to conquer all of Japan, but I believe it would be enough of a foothold that further incursions could be made. Attempts to take Honshu could ultimately fail, but they'd still have Kyushu. Now, I doubt the Mongols would last on Japan, but a partially successful invasion could change how the Japanese view the outside world.

 

[Sian]

While the Japanese managed to win the first battle (just befor the typhoon) they had several issues which would have made it a pyhric victory otherwise

• Japan had some 10.000 Samurais, against a protential 30k Mongolian Soldiers
• Mongols had superior weapons, both melee and ranged (poisoned arrows and granade-like sling bullets to scare horses and infantry alike)
• Japan had been in a 50year peace, which ment that they had no generals with experience in largescale combat
• Japanese combat was largely based on honorable man-to-man, while Mongols was much more 'modern' and flexible

so while the Japanese managed to fight off the first attempt from the Mongols to established a larger beachhead than they allready had (which the mongol captains suggested to abandon since they could strand without reserves if the typhoon blew the ships away), the Mongols certainly had the larger capablitiy to try again the next day with more reserves. with even more to come after the Mongols managed to secure Kyushu, as a prober landing pad for the reserves from the mainland.

 

[Delvestius]

Even with the peace that was established after the Gempei war, I wouldn't be surprised if there were still Taira clans that resented the new Minamoto Ashikaga Shogunate. I believe many dissedent Daimyos could be bought over to the mongols' side in this situation.. Japan has a long history with bribing.

 

[rvbomally]

so while the Japanese managed to fight off the first attempt from the Mongols to established a larger beachhead than they allready had (which the mongol captains suggested to abandon since they could strand without reserves if the typhoon blew the ships away), the Mongols certainly had the larger capablitiy to try again the next day with more reserves. with even more to come after the Mongols managed to secure Kyushu, as a prober landing pad for the reserves from the mainland.

So the Mongols have the upper hand? How far could they take this? I'm still skeptical of them being able to take the entirety of Japan, but rule through puppets may be possible.

Even with the peace that was established after the Gempei war, I wouldn't be surprised if there were still Taira clans that resented the new Minamoto Ashikaga Shogunate. I believe many dissedent Daimyos could be bought over to the mongols' side in this situation.. Japan has a long history with bribing.

Hm, the possibility of renewed warfare thanks to the Mongols shaking things up could have interesting consequences even if/when the Mongols leave....

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

So the Mongols have the upper hand? How far could they take this? I'm still skeptical of them being able to take the entirety of Japan, but rule through puppets may be possible.

Well, Japan was under the Kamakura Bakufu at the time, which was basically on the other side of the country, so perhaps an East/West division of the country? The Mongols take Kyushu, Shikoku, and western Honshu, maybe setting up a competing government if they capture Kyoto (or whatever it was called at this time), while the Hojo keep eastern Honshu and continue to rule from Kamakura. It might be like Japan's historical Northern and Southern courts, with two competing imperial claims, only on the east-west axis.

 

[rvbomally]

Well, Japan was under the Kamakura Bakufu at the time, which was basically on the other side of the country, so perhaps an East/West division of the country? The Mongols take Kyushu, Shikoku, and western Honshu, maybe setting up a competing government if they capture Kyoto (or whatever it was called at this time), while the Hojo keep eastern Honshu and continue to rule from Kamakura. It might be like Japan's historical Northern and Southern courts, with two competing imperial claims, only on the east-west axis.

Hm, this could severely retard the development of a unified Japan. Perhaps this opens it up to European colonization later on?

 

[iori]

Kyoto (or whatever it was called at this time),

It was called Kyoto back then; the name Kyoto was adopted in the 11th century, with it previously being known as Kyō, Miyako and Kyō no Miyako.

Not really that relevant to the thread I suppose, though in the case the Mongols managed to set-up a rival government they might change the name, so I guess in that case it'd be useful information.

 

[Delvestius]

Hm, this could severely retard the development of a unified Japan. Perhaps this opens it up to European colonization later on?

It's possible. This may lead to an earlier Sengoku Jidai and establishment of a strong Shogunate that would probably break down or start to my the time Europeans come snooping around for realz, instead of just Dutch and Portuguese trade missions... Or, it could create a strong Shogunate that could outlast coercion, and be brazen enough to confront it when the best plays hardball (though I would imagine they'd get blasted away pretty nastily...

Well, Japan was under the Kamakura Bakufu at the time, which was basically on the other side of the country, so perhaps an East/West division of the country? The Mongols take Kyushu, Shikoku, and western Honshu, maybe setting up a competing government if they capture Kyoto (or whatever it was called at this time), while the Hojo keep eastern Honshu and continue to rule from Kamakura. It might be like Japan's historical Northern and Southern courts, with two competing imperial claims, only on the east-west axis.

Oh damn, the Kamakura.. I forgot about them! Though indeed, they were still Minamoto and not Taira...

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

Oh damn, the Kamakura.. I forgot about them! Though indeed, they were still Minamoto and not Taira...

Well, the Kamakura Shogunate was controlled by the Hojo regents to the shoguns. The family of Minamoto no Yoritomo, who won the Minamoto-Taira War, had already died out. The Shogun at the time was actually a member of the imperial family who had been adopted into the Minamoto family, but wasn't really a member in my opinion.

 

[Delvestius]

Well, the Kamakura Shogunate was controlled by the Hojo regents to the shoguns. The family of Minamoto no Yoritomo, who won the Minamoto-Taira War, had already died out. The Shogun at the time was actually a member of the imperial family who had been adopted into the Minamoto family, but wasn't really a member in my opinion.

The honor and loyalties still lied there, however. Or rather with them then the Taira, leaving enough of a potential for a rift.

 

[Badshah]

Hm, this could severely retard the development of a unified Japan. Perhaps this opens it up to European colonization later on?

Why would the Europeans automatically begin colonization. Butterflies would exist here.

The possibilities of a Mongolian dynasty are intriguing, however....Japan could adopt more traditions from the steppe and perhaps vice versa, creating a host of new ideas, like inspiring the Mongols to make their khan divine? Which would thereby affect the whole Mongol Empire, since their religious tolerance would become lower.

This could lead to a more compact but still large empire which lasts, from the Urals to Japan.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

The honor and loyalties still lied there, however. Or rather with them then the Taira, leaving enough of a potential for a rift.

True, it's just that I'm often picky when it comes to blood and descent. I don't care if other people say that the Minamoto family was providing the Shoguns while the Hojo family were only Shikken. From a biological point of view, those Shoguns were members of the imperial family and not the Minamoto family.

By the way, I've also heard a rather interesting theory that the development of the Okinawan states was caused by an influx of Taira refugees following the Battle of Dan-no-ura. I'm not convinced, however. On the other hand, the idea that there are Taira loyalists in the Ryukyus, waiting for the downfall of the Kamakura ("Minamoto") Shogunate, is one with some potential.

 

[rvbomally]

It's possible. This may lead to an earlier Sengoku Jidai and establishment of a strong Shogunate that would probably break down or start to my the time Europeans come snooping around for realz, instead of just Dutch and Portuguese trade missions... Or, it could create a strong Shogunate that could outlast coercion, and be brazen enough to confront it when the best plays hardball (though I would imagine they'd get blasted away pretty nastily...

Either way, I don't think the Japanese could be as isolated from outside influence (European or otherwise) as IOTL. If Mongol incursion sets a precedent for using outsiders in internal conflicts, then we can see more involvement from Korea and China.

Why would the Europeans automatically begin colonization. Butterflies would exist here.

I was thinking centuries afterward, but you do have a point. Butterflies could remove European colonization on the levels we see IOTL.

The possibilities of a Mongolian dynasty are intriguing, however....Japan could adopt more traditions from the steppe and perhaps vice versa, creating a host of new ideas, like inspiring the Mongols to make their khan divine? Which would thereby affect the whole Mongol Empire, since their religious tolerance would become lower.

This could have interesting syncretic possibilities while at the same time motivating more hostility between Mongol and non-Mongol societies. The popularity of "divine" leaders may spread to other societies as well.

This could lead to a more compact but still large empire which lasts, from the Urals to Japan.

I'm not sure they could hold onto Japan or any other densely populated areas, but the possibility of a longer-lasting empire in "Siberia" is interesting....