John Fredrick Parker
Donor
For our PoD, let's say Livilla and Sejanus are caught sometime in early to mid 23 CE; the son of Tiberius outlives his wife, eventually succeeding his father as emperor. How is history changed? (One possible butterfly)
WI Drusus the Younger Lives
- Thread starter John Fredrick Parker
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the issue with Drusus the younger was that there is not that much info on his personality really, you can just make it all up but.... the more interesting POD would be the death of Sejanus before he can centralise and expand the Praetorians into the cancer that they became after his intervention.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
We do know some things about him -- he was experienced as a negotiator resolving a number of army mutinees, he was known for having a temper (esp when it came to Sejanus), and he didn't seem to share his father's grudge against Germanicus (naming one of his twin sons after him). He was also considerably older than Caligula, and would have been about 50 at the time of his father's OTL death, which bodes far better than if he were young.
There's also the question of whether this affects Roman imperial policy and/or expansion in the mid and latter first century; I imagine Drusus still presides over the annexation of Roman client kingdoms in North Africa and Thrace, but he may not feel the need to authorize the conquest of Britain. If this is the case, then Roman finances and the availability of legions are both in a far better position by about 50 CE, when the kingdoms between Rome and Persia (Iberia, Armenia, and Albania) started to spiral toward a conflict that OTL would become one of the Roman Parthian Wars; this could mean Rome continues to ignore the fast northern isle in favor of using this opportunity to push her borders eastward. Thoughts?
I recently read a biography of Germanicus which puts the light on the first years of the campaign of Germany (before Augustus died) and shows that Germanicus was widely overestimated and that Drusus was in fact a better commander than Germanicus. Drusus noticeably handled the revolt of legions much better than Germanicus did.
Germanicus has been magnified for political reasons after his death because, being the grandson of Octavia and the father of Augustus' great grandchildren, he embodied the "legitimate" line by blood of Augustus' successors. But the real character probably was far less brilliant.
So Drusus surviving means he will become emperor when his father Tiberius dies. And the only thing that may be guessed is that, however tarnished was Drusus' memory, his rule may be more compliant with Augustus' commpromise of hidden (and apparently restrained) monarchy under a republican veil than OTL was Caligula who praised some kind of more opened monarchy and revered his great grandfather Antonius.
Drusus could be some kind of uncrippled Claudius.
Germanicus has been magnified for political reasons after his death because, being the grandson of Octavia and the father of Augustus' great grandchildren, he embodied the "legitimate" line by blood of Augustus' successors. But the real character probably was far less brilliant.
So Drusus surviving means he will become emperor when his father Tiberius dies. And the only thing that may be guessed is that, however tarnished was Drusus' memory, his rule may be more compliant with Augustus' commpromise of hidden (and apparently restrained) monarchy under a republican veil than OTL was Caligula who praised some kind of more opened monarchy and revered his great grandfather Antonius.
Drusus could be some kind of uncrippled Claudius.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
So just read a little of Guy de la Bedoyere's work on the Praetorian Guard; seems the barracks for the guard inside the city, completed 23 CE (about the time of our PoD), were by then a practical concern more than a political one, so ubiquitous were these soldiers inside the city by then. So much for containing that particular "cancer".
It also gave me idea on how to develop the PoD -- in 22 CE, a small fire that OTL burned down a theater in Rome and almost threatened the city doesn't break out, meaning Sejanus and the Praetorians don't get special commendations for their efforts in helping put it out; a few months later, Drusus kills Sejanus, as permitted to under the Lex Julia, and divorces Livia.
CONSOLIDATE:
It also gave me idea on how to develop the PoD -- in 22 CE, a small fire that OTL burned down a theater in Rome and almost threatened the city doesn't break out, meaning Sejanus and the Praetorians don't get special commendations for their efforts in helping put it out; a few months later, Drusus kills Sejanus, as permitted to under the Lex Julia, and divorces Livia.
CONSOLIDATE:
It sounds like Rome's semi-republican government of the early imperial era is healthier for a longer period of time TTL; of no emperor tries to pull a Caligula/Domitian prior to, say, 80 CE, does that mean a future young emperor no has a harder time doing something like that?
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It would be extremely problematic for Drusus to divorce Livilla since Livilla was the very person that linked him to the Julian bloodline : she was Germanicus' and Claudius' sister, that is the granddaughter of Octavia. Now, what would be great is having Tiberius force widowed Agrippina to marry Drusus once he divorces Livilla.
Now, that would be interesting. Is there a possibility this might neuter Agrippina's potential threat to Tiberius?
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
And as it happens, Germanicus and Agrippina's eldest son, Nero, is already married to Drusus' daughter as of our PoD, and Caligula is still a minor.
So how good a ruler would drusus be? The only thing I know about him is that he had a temper
All I know is that he would be better than Caligula. But practically everyone would be better than Caligula.
Another possible benefit here is that it might Butterfly Nero too...
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
I had forgotten something -- Julia, daughter of Drusus the Younger and wife of Nero Germanicus, was not only unhappily married as her mother Livilla, but likewise fell to the machinations of Sejanus, aiding the Praetorian Prefect in bringing about the downfall of her husband (as well as her mother in law, Agrippina the Elder, and brother in law, Drusus Germanicus). With the PoD we're talking about, she's now lost two key co-conspirators of OTL, but she's still unhappy with Nero, so there's room for things to happen.
So here's what I have so far:
In 22 CE, a small fire that OTL burned down a theater in Rome and almost threatened the city doesn't break out, meaning Sejanus and the Praetorians don't get special commendations for their efforts in helping put it out; as something of a secondary PoD, there is instead a street brawl involving some Praetorians, in which the middle son of Germanicus, named Drusus, is killed.* A few months later, Drusus kills Sejanus, as permitted to under the Lex Julia, and divorces Livia.
Emperor Tiberius is a little miffed at this, to put it lightly, but agrees to reconcile with his son and banish Livilla to a barren island if Drusus uses his new single status to solve his other problem, by marrying Germanicus' widow Agrippina. With his daughter already married to her older son Nero, and young Gaius (Caligula) being brought into the family along with the still young Gemellus, things look like they're starting to work out for the Imperial family. That is, until Julia Livia starts acting out against Nero...
*Note: I am really only doing this to simplify, since our main PoD character is already called "Drusus the Younger"; Agrippina's other two sons, Nero and Gaius (Caligula) won't go down so easily.
So here's what I have so far:
In 22 CE, a small fire that OTL burned down a theater in Rome and almost threatened the city doesn't break out, meaning Sejanus and the Praetorians don't get special commendations for their efforts in helping put it out; as something of a secondary PoD, there is instead a street brawl involving some Praetorians, in which the middle son of Germanicus, named Drusus, is killed.* A few months later, Drusus kills Sejanus, as permitted to under the Lex Julia, and divorces Livia.
Emperor Tiberius is a little miffed at this, to put it lightly, but agrees to reconcile with his son and banish Livilla to a barren island if Drusus uses his new single status to solve his other problem, by marrying Germanicus' widow Agrippina. With his daughter already married to her older son Nero, and young Gaius (Caligula) being brought into the family along with the still young Gemellus, things look like they're starting to work out for the Imperial family. That is, until Julia Livia starts acting out against Nero...
*Note: I am really only doing this to simplify, since our main PoD character is already called "Drusus the Younger"; Agrippina's other two sons, Nero and Gaius (Caligula) won't go down so easily.
Talk about cleaning things up...
The Butterflies are going to be pretty massive, what with Agrippina being brought into the fold. Hopefully, that will cool her down a little.
Maybe Gemellus will be able to grow up before he has to take on any positions of authority.
I wonder what your take on Tiberius is. Will he be the Lecher of Rhodes? Or will he be more the austere type?
I ask because the malevolent depiction seems to be at least a little bit improbable, given his history before he became Princeps. But a lot of his reputation comes from Tacitus, and Suetonius; both of whom had axes to grind.
The real Tiberius Caesar seems to have been something else entirely...
The Butterflies are going to be pretty massive, what with Agrippina being brought into the fold. Hopefully, that will cool her down a little.
Maybe Gemellus will be able to grow up before he has to take on any positions of authority.
I wonder what your take on Tiberius is. Will he be the Lecher of Rhodes? Or will he be more the austere type?
I ask because the malevolent depiction seems to be at least a little bit improbable, given his history before he became Princeps. But a lot of his reputation comes from Tacitus, and Suetonius; both of whom had axes to grind.
The real Tiberius Caesar seems to have been something else entirely...
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
@vandevere My impression of Tiberius is that he was a complicated guy. The weird thing is, he almost manages to be one of the greatest Roman emperors -- outside of the massive trust and power he put in Senanus, the bloody purge he initiated to remove Sejanus from power, and generally letting the Praetorian Guard get out of control as a political actor. TTL, he's avoiding (at least some of) the worst of his mistakes, so his reign will be even better.
I don't know what kind of stick to put into speculation of his sex life, but he was forced by Augustus to leave a wife he apparently loved, to marry the emperor's infamously adulterous daughter; so I wouldn't be surprised if he actually was as tetchy and detached as the chroniclers claim.
I don't know what kind of stick to put into speculation of his sex life, but he was forced by Augustus to leave a wife he apparently loved, to marry the emperor's infamously adulterous daughter; so I wouldn't be surprised if he actually was as tetchy and detached as the chroniclers claim.
I once read a biography of Tiberius by Robin Saeger, and now I'm convinced-even though Saeger never said it-that Tiberius might have suffered from Clinical Depression. He was dark, dour, moody, and possibly a Republican at heart; and stuck in a position he didn't really want.
I hope this tl makes his life a little better...
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Another small point -- the three daughters of Agrippina (the Elder) are still minors at the time of our PoD, so their marriage prospects could also be altered. This may mean, for example, that Agrippina the Younger doesn't end up marrying her father's cousin, Gnaeus Domitus Ahenobarbus,* which in turn means the man who would OTL became Emperor Nero isn't born TTL.
*incidentally, the only son of Mark Antony's elder daughter (Germanicus, Livia, and Claudius being the children of his younger daughter), so somebody Tiberius, Drusus, et el may have to keep their eyes on
*incidentally, the only son of Mark Antony's elder daughter (Germanicus, Livia, and Claudius being the children of his younger daughter), so somebody Tiberius, Drusus, et el may have to keep their eyes on
Well, you avoid a lot of Sejanus' reign of terror while Tiberius was on Capri, though you might create an earlier reign of terror for Tiberius. If Tiberius still more or less retreats from public life, Drusus is effectively in control much earlier than he is officially emperor. Though this isn't necessarily guaranteed, since Tiberius may feel a duty to stick around to train his son in the arts of statecraft.
Assuming the latter, this is already a major POD. A Tiberius more engaged in the affairs of Rome (rather than just directing treason trials from afar and arbitrarily imprisoning and executing Germanicus's family) will still not be much well liked by the Roman populace, but he also won't be loathed anywhere to the extent he was IOTL. If Tiberius isn't going on his treason trials thanks to influence from Drusus, Germanicus's family will remain in much greater shape. Drusus Caesar and Nero Julius Caesar Germanicus would be alive at Tiberius's death ITTL, and without Caligula, Julia Drusilla would remain married to Lucius Cassius Longinus (who in turn wouldn't have Caligula around to kill him). Depending on her own actions, Julia Livilla might survive to life to a ripe old age herself, though her apparent tendency to engage in plots might mean she still suffers a gruesome fate.
The Julio-Claudian dynasty went through a very rough period as far as dyanstic health is concerned during the latter half of Tiberius's reign, Caligula's reign, and the bloody end of Claudius's reign and then Nero's reign. So it's definitely in comparative great health in this scenario.
Now onto Drusus himself. Drusus was almost as popular as Germanicus. To give you an idea of the esteem Romans held them in (at least after they were both dead), Cassius Dio compared the two to the mythical twins Castor and Pollux. Drusus did apparently have a sort of temper, though so did Germanicus, and by all appearances, Drusus actually seems to have been much more competent and effective than Germanicus. As for what Drusus would do in power, he has less need for a military triumph than Caligula or Claudius did, as he has an extensive and successful military career already under his belt-he doesn't need a military victory to prove his legitimacy and boost his prestige. So it's entirely possible that he does not launch a campaign of conquest anywhere, though it is still probably likely (depending on how long he lives) that he may engage in some military or diplomatic conflict with Parthia over Syria. IOTL Parthia challenged Rome by establishing Tiridates on the throne of Armenia in 52 CE, leading to the Roman-Parthian War in 58. It's certainly possible Drusus would be alive to oversee that war, and might challenge Parthian aggressiveness earlier, though it's also possible that Parthia would be more cautious dealing with an experienced leader like Drusus than they were with Claudius and Nero.
If Drusus does launch any offensive campaigns in the west, there are two obvious options: Germania and Britannia. The settlement and diplomatic and trading ties set in place with Britannia by Caesar had largely broken down and so an expedition was certainly warranted, though this did not necessarily mean a war of conquest; a simple invasion to put things back into a Roman favored order, like those that would be launched in Germania periodically, might be all that is considered. The same might be true for Germania; there will certainly be excursions into Germania as happened fairly off and on during this period, but whether another attempt at conquest is attempted is entirely up to Drusus. Certainly the opportunity is there.
Assuming for sake of argument that Drusus dies at the ripe old age of 63 in 50 CE, there's a few options for succession that could make things interesting. There is of course Drusus's son Tiberius Gemellus, who would be 31. But there are also the children of Germanicus to contend with-Drusus Caesar, born in 7 CE and now 43 and Nero Julius Caesar, born in 6 CE and now 44, and of course the now 38 year old Caligula (assuming of course, none of these people die unexpectedly or are killed). This is really the first test of the pitfalls of the technically non-hereditary Julio-Claudian system created by Augustus, something we never really got to see IOTL thanks to either mass sudden death in Augustus's case, or mass interfamily murder afterwards leading to surprisingly swift and clean successions until the dynasty died out. It's a nice stage for a proxy war between the Julian and Claudian factions that had been sniping at each other since the early days of Augustus's reign, since Tiberius Gemellus has no Julian blood.
I'm honestly not sure how this would work out, and a lot depends on how Drusus handles his future succession before he dies. His problem by this point would be that all of them are established adults-he can't pull an Augustus and make one of them his immediate heir, adopting another as their successor. A lot depends on their personalities, so speculating is hard as not a lot is known about any of their personalities, thanks to their early deaths. It could get bloody very quickly, and it may just as well be over just as quick.
Whoever it is, they will likely face an immediate challenge from the Parthians (see above) with regards to Armenia, so they will be provided with a ready chance for establishing themselves with a military triumph.
Tiberius certainly showed signs of it. He withdrew from public life often, and I'm not entirely sure he ever wanted to succeed Augustus.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
@SlyDessertFox Excellent stuff, much thanks! As it happens, a lot of your thoughts are along the lines of what has been crossing my mind.
While I had been thinking about the Julio-Claudian members who are more likely to live TTL, I hadn't really taken note of how much, in general, this helps with the health of the family over all, in terms of having plenty of members on hand to take control of the empire. And, though I had been thinking of how much more respect Tiberius will get from history TTL, I also hadn't thought of how Tiberius personally being more involved in governing. With no Reign of Terror by Sejanus, and far less need of a counter Reign of Terror by Tiberius, Roman politics would be a lot calmer TTL. That said, even with Sejanus being killed earlier, there is still the Praetorian Guard, who with the late PoD are still settled into Rome proper; and if the fiction of the Republic goes on longer without being openly mocked by the Emperor (as Caligula and later Domitian did), what does that really mean, in practical terms, for how the empire is run?
I agree Drusus would be a very capable emperor, and would have little need to prove himself in conquest; I mentioned that I think rebellious Roman client kingdoms of Maurentania and Thracia would still be absorbed, but that Britain is far less likely to be annexed. And I also agree this is going to have implications in the 50's CE, when Parthia and the border kingdoms start to unravel; I also see Drusus dying around this time, meaning whoever his successor is will likely be the one to lead Rome for most of this war.
It also occurred to me that Germanicus' children still being alive complicates the question of Drusus' succession; in fact, were this to be made into a TL I'd advise on killing Drusus Germanicus fairly early just to keep the story from getting too complicated (we already call the son of Tiberius "Drusus the Younger" after all). Even with this snip though, you are correct that there's now a question of who succeeds Drusus, though I think (again, if we cut Drusus Germanicus for simplicity's sake) that it effectively becomes a contest between Nero Germanicus and Gemellus, with Gaius Caligula more likely to be a kingmaker than to seriously seek to be the king. And whoever wins deals with Parthia. (And wouldn't it be ironic if it were Nero though, considering how OTL's Emperor Nero was ruling around this time?)
So this is the list of Roman Emperors that I see playing out TTL:
While I had been thinking about the Julio-Claudian members who are more likely to live TTL, I hadn't really taken note of how much, in general, this helps with the health of the family over all, in terms of having plenty of members on hand to take control of the empire. And, though I had been thinking of how much more respect Tiberius will get from history TTL, I also hadn't thought of how Tiberius personally being more involved in governing. With no Reign of Terror by Sejanus, and far less need of a counter Reign of Terror by Tiberius, Roman politics would be a lot calmer TTL. That said, even with Sejanus being killed earlier, there is still the Praetorian Guard, who with the late PoD are still settled into Rome proper; and if the fiction of the Republic goes on longer without being openly mocked by the Emperor (as Caligula and later Domitian did), what does that really mean, in practical terms, for how the empire is run?
I agree Drusus would be a very capable emperor, and would have little need to prove himself in conquest; I mentioned that I think rebellious Roman client kingdoms of Maurentania and Thracia would still be absorbed, but that Britain is far less likely to be annexed. And I also agree this is going to have implications in the 50's CE, when Parthia and the border kingdoms start to unravel; I also see Drusus dying around this time, meaning whoever his successor is will likely be the one to lead Rome for most of this war.
It also occurred to me that Germanicus' children still being alive complicates the question of Drusus' succession; in fact, were this to be made into a TL I'd advise on killing Drusus Germanicus fairly early just to keep the story from getting too complicated (we already call the son of Tiberius "Drusus the Younger" after all). Even with this snip though, you are correct that there's now a question of who succeeds Drusus, though I think (again, if we cut Drusus Germanicus for simplicity's sake) that it effectively becomes a contest between Nero Germanicus and Gemellus, with Gaius Caligula more likely to be a kingmaker than to seriously seek to be the king. And whoever wins deals with Parthia. (And wouldn't it be ironic if it were Nero though, considering how OTL's Emperor Nero was ruling around this time?)
So this is the list of Roman Emperors that I see playing out TTL:
- Augustus (to 14 CE)
- Tiberius (to circa 37 CE)
- Drusus (to circa 52 CE)
- Nero (to circa 80 CE)
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Of course, events during Drusus's reign could make the succession obvious, in that one of the men could tower over the other in prestige and political power, with the plotting and intrigue only coming after the succession.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Map of the client kingdoms between Rome and Parthia as of 50 CE (OTL):
In TTL's alt Parthian War, I can see Rome controlling or outright annexing the whole Kingdoms of Armenia and Osrhoene and everything in between (Comagene, Iberia, etc), and possibly Caucasian Albania, Nisibis, and Atropatene for good measure. Thoughts?
CONSOLIDATE: Something else crossed my mind -- if I'm right, and Rome manages to push her eastern border to the western shores of the Caspian in the latter first century, does that mean that Rome now has more contact with the Kushan Empire? I'm unclear on who really controlled the land to the east of the Caspian, but seeing as it wasn't Parthia, would this mean Rome can bypass their Persian rivals more easily in trading with the east?
And related to this idea, if Rome absorbs this much eastern territory this much sooner, does that mean that Buddhism can now make a greater impact on the empire?
In TTL's alt Parthian War, I can see Rome controlling or outright annexing the whole Kingdoms of Armenia and Osrhoene and everything in between (Comagene, Iberia, etc), and possibly Caucasian Albania, Nisibis, and Atropatene for good measure. Thoughts?
CONSOLIDATE: Something else crossed my mind -- if I'm right, and Rome manages to push her eastern border to the western shores of the Caspian in the latter first century, does that mean that Rome now has more contact with the Kushan Empire? I'm unclear on who really controlled the land to the east of the Caspian, but seeing as it wasn't Parthia, would this mean Rome can bypass their Persian rivals more easily in trading with the east?
And related to this idea, if Rome absorbs this much eastern territory this much sooner, does that mean that Buddhism can now make a greater impact on the empire?
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