@vandevere I had been picturing Drusus succedding his father, but then Nero (son of Germanicus) succedding Drusus* circa 50 CE (spending the first few years of his reign at war with Parthia). Tiberius will certainly be more competent than OTL, and I imagine Drusus will mostly continue said competence; Nero Germanicus (or whoever succeeds Drusus) I'm less sure of (especially with the noted war as an x factor). That said, if we're right about Tiberius and his son, I imagine that adds at minimum another couple decades before the Principate reaches "Year of Four Emperors" level problems (so 69 CE at least delayed to 90, likely longer).

*son in law to Drusus as of our PoD
 
@vandevere I had been picturing Drusus succedding his father, but then Nero (son of Germanicus) succedding Drusus* circa 50 CE (spending the first few years of his reign at war with Parthia). Tiberius will certainly be more competent than OTL, and I imagine Drusus will mostly continue said competence; Nero Germanicus (or whoever succeeds Drusus) I'm less sure of (especially with the noted war as an x factor). That said, if we're right about Tiberius and his son, I imagine that adds at minimum another couple decades before the Principate reaches "Year of Four Emperors" level problems (so 69 CE at least delayed to 90, likely longer).

*son in law to Drusus as of our PoD

It might also butterfly things later on. The era of the "Good Emperors" starting with Antoninus Pius-or was it Nerva?-and ending with Marcus Aurelius' death might also not happen as the thing which brought about the Accession of Pius to the purple only happened because of the rebellion against Domitian.

And since Domitian isn't happening, that won't happen either...
 
It might also butterfly things later on...

And since Domitian isn't happening, that won't happen either...
Indeed. What I'm getting at is trying to get a handle on when our alternate Julio-Claudian dynasty starts running into problems. We all agree they're more likely to last longer, other than that...
The era of the "Good Emperors" starting with Antoninus Pius-or was it Nerva?-and ending with Marcus Aurelius' death...
I usually hear them listed as Trajan, Hadrian, Pius, and Aurelius. Honestly though, the reign of Marcus Aurelius was pretty rough on its own merits (Antonine Plague anyone?); I'm not sure why Pius is considered a "good emperor", considering his reign was mainly uneventful; and I'm not entirely sure Trajan's war-mongering, popular though it was among Romans, necessarily made the empire stronger. No issue calling Hadrian a "Good Emperor", though.
 
You know, a lot of what we regard as "History, Written in Stone", seems to be really random stuff. And just in the era you're working on right now, I can think of a few examples off the top of my head.

Tiberius' brother, also Drusus, died because his horse fell on him, his leg broke, and then festered. Drusus' eldest son, Germanicus, died young, and probably of a random illness. History is just full of these things that literally happen out of nowhere, and send history sideways.

All I can suggest is that you try something another TL writer did to simulate the randomness of life. He used dice-D&D Gaming Dice, I think-but you could use any Random Number Generator you feel comfortable with.

Things happen out of nowhere. If Augusus' two Grandsons, sons of Agrippa, Gaius and Lucius, hadn't died, Tiberius wouldn't have become Emperor either. But they both died.

As the saying goes, shit happens...
 
@vandevere That's a very good point, and one I agree with when thinking about history in general. That said, I think it may be possible to think about processes like the Fall of the Julio-Claudian Dynasty in broader terms.

For example, in OTL we can think about the periods in the history of the family when their various cadet branches were "clipped" by paranoid or just cruel Roman Emperors (Tiberius' kangaroo courts starting in 29 CE, plus family members close and distant killed by Caligula and Nero); this process can hve said to have taken somewhat under four decades. Another way of thinking about it is that about 30 years of bad or mediocre emperors was what it took for the Roman armies to lose all faith in the lineage of Augustus, though that's a very simplified conjecture.

All told, I think we could estimate that another two decades of stable, boring rule by Tiberius and Drusus could add upwards of three decades to the Julian Dynasty. And if it takes until 80 CE for Rome to get a truly subpar or bad emperor, well...
 
@vandevere That's a very good point, and one I agree with when thinking about history in general. That said, I think it may be possible to think about processes like the Fall of the Julio-Claudian Dynasty in broader terms.

For example, in OTL we can think about the periods in the history of the family when their various cadet branches were "clipped" by paranoid or just cruel Roman Emperors (Tiberius' kangaroo courts starting in 29 CE, plus family members close and distant killed by Caligula and Nero); this process can hve said to have taken somewhat under four decades. Another way of thinking about it is that about 30 years of bad or mediocre emperors was what it took for the Roman armies to lose all faith in the lineage of Augustus, though that's a very simplified conjecture.

All told, I think we could estimate that another two decades of stable, boring rule by Tiberius and Drusus could add upwards of three decades to the Julian Dynasty. And if it takes until 80 CE for Rome to get a truly subpar or bad emperor, well...

Yes. But what I'm suggesting here is that you take a randomized approach to the Emperors who succeed after Drusus. After all, you'll be in terra incognita regarding Drusus' succesors, and you'll need a way to determine personality traits and such.

In this tl, all of Germanicus' children survived, not just Gaius "Little Boots". And, apart from Caligula, we don't no much about anything substantial about the other boys, and even Caligula's personality might be totally different too, with such a radical change to his life.

That's why I suggested the D&D gaming dice. We all have our favorite biases and such, and the randomness of the dice seem to help mitigate that.
 
Now this discussion got me thinking about imperial economic policy again. FWIG, the Flavian Dynasty and Antonines were more often than not making problems for blooming commercial interests with inflationary coinage,* expensive wars, and high urban spending; since they're all butterflied by our early intervention on behalf of the Julio-Claudians, that's something to keep in mind as well.

*nor as bad as it got during and after the Third Century, but still...
 
@vandevere I had been picturing Drusus succedding his father, but then Nero (son of Germanicus) succedding Drusus* circa 50 CE (spending the first few years of his reign at war with Parthia). Tiberius will certainly be more competent than OTL, and I imagine Drusus will mostly continue said competence; Nero Germanicus (or whoever succeeds Drusus) I'm less sure of (especially with the noted war as an x factor). That said, if we're right about Tiberius and his son, I imagine that adds at minimum another couple decades before the Principate reaches "Year of Four Emperors" level problems (so 69 CE at least delayed to 90, likely longer).

*son in law to Drusus as of our PoD
Wouldn't he live long for him to have a son ready? Even if gamelius was not his he still has time for more kids
Yes. But what I'm suggesting here is that you take a randomized approach to the Emperors who succeed after Drusus. After all, you'll be in terra incognita regarding Drusus' succesors, and you'll need a way to determine personality traits and such.

In this tl, all of Germanicus' children survived, not just Gaius "Little Boots". And, apart from Caligula, we don't no much about anything substantial about the other boys, and even Caligula's personality might be totally different too, with such a radical change to his life.

That's why I suggested the D&D gaming dice. We all have our favorite biases and such, and the randomness of the dice seem to help mitigate that.
really dice? Isn't that too random?
 
Wouldn't he live long for him to have a son ready? Even if gamelius was not his he still has time for more kids

really dice? Isn't that too random?

That was how this other writer did it. But there should be plenty of other ways to randomize traits and stuff. The purpose of the dice was apparently to randomize things, and keep personal biases from creeping in...
 
Wouldn't he live long for him to have a son ready? Even if gamelius was not his he still has time for more kids
That's actually a pretty good point -- Drusus and Agrippina are likely to have at least some children together, so Gemellus won't be the only natural son of the emperor looking to inherit. Then again, the oldest such a son could possibly be in the given timeframe is his mid-20's, and young emperors of OTL don't have the best track record. If succession is done more in the spirit of a true principate than a quasi-monarchy, then the youth of this alternate son will likely count against him.
 
That's actually a pretty good point -- Drusus and Agrippina are likely to have at least some children together, so Gemellus won't be the only natural son of the emperor looking to inherit. Then again, the oldest such a son could possibly be in the given timeframe is his mid-20's, and young emperors of OTL don't have the best track record. If succession is done more in the spirit of a true principate than a quasi-monarchy, then the youth of this alternate son will likely count against him.

Yeah. He would be expected to serve in the military. Of course, he would be allowed to stand for election to the position of Quaestor, and Aedile at a much younger age due to his exalted parentage. But he would still be expected to prove his mettle and gain experience...
 
That was how this other writer did it. But there should be plenty of other ways to randomize traits and stuff. The purpose of the dice was apparently to randomize things, and keep personal biases from creeping in...
That seems like too risky. You could make an even more unrealistic timeline then you would have originals and it's not even the time line you wanted.
 
Oops wrong Darius. I was thinking of an early prince who died and his bother who ruled... just sort of let the empire run on autopilot without doing anything.
 
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