WI: Doolittle raid kills Horihito.

[Arcavia]

Would the military conceal it? They could probably achieve this if they tried.

​

Honestly? I doubt that they would, thinking that it would give them the popular support to take complete control of the government over the last shreds of civil resistance.

A worse Pacific War might lead to the US demanding a Soviet DoW on Japan to continue receiving L-L. and to host XX Bomber Command from Soviet bases

No. Stalin was not going to get involved in a two front war. Especially not when the Japanese posed no real threat to him. Not when Germany was literally at the gates of Moscow. At best, they turn a blind eye to bomber crews who had to divert to the USSR after bombing Japan.

Plus, the US wouldn't have realized that the campaign is worse than OTL. They were already having to root out Japanese garrisons almost to the last man. And they didn't demand it off the Soviets then. They wouldn't now.

I agree that Stalin likely wouldn't declare war, but also that the US wouldn't ask. However, a no-holds-barred Japan might still impact Lend-Lease, if the Japanese actually started shooting at the L-L vessels...though this could probably be averted by transferring the ships to Soviet flag.

Down the road, assuming that the Japanese refuse to surrender--which I don't think unlikely, given that in a certain sense the Americans have killed the Japanese nation, even if unintentionally--the US high command and President are going to have a hell of a choice to make after the bombings fail to provoke a surrender. Namely, do they commence Downfall themselves, or let the Soviets do it in exchange for keeping some or all of Japan in their sphere, assuming the Red Army, with L-L'd Higgins boats and US naval assistance, could do so. The latter is more politically feasible in the short term, but it will in the long term and in the halls of power make Truman look super weak before the Soviets. On the flip side, a Soviet invasion of Japan could turn into a resource sink...

 

[Barry Bull]

Funny thing is I think the Japanese would pause for a moment, be utterly stunned and might do the utterly unexpected. They HAD a democracy movement in the 1920s. They HAD rational people in their government even in 1942. If they were as blood crazed berserk as some of the posters above let on, they would not have quit, even if their emperor told them to surrender. He gets killed, the very man who backed the war party in the first place? Iffy. The peace party might take it as an omen.

It really depends. There are low and middle rank people who attempted to coup and continue the war when the Emperor decided to quit in 1945.

 

[HaroldWinthrop]

Who is Horihito? If you mean the Japanese tattoo artist Horihide, then the Yakuza and afficionados of full body tattoo 'suits' would miss one of the great talents of the craft.

 

[Lalli]

Would it really? The Japanese aren't superhuman automatons brainwashed into loyalty to their emperor. There'd be some more atrocities which would probably lead to reciprocation but as far as I'm aware the Japanese don't have a secret brain structure that makes them rage driven crusaders determined to avenge their godly leader. The pacific was a war of industry more than men, they won't do better just by trying harder.

Even currently emperor is for Japneses more than just head of state. He is symbol of whole Japanese culture and nationality. Before end of WW2 emperor was semi-god and holy person. Even killiong of pope wouldn't be so bad in point of view of Catholics as killing of emperor would be for Japenses. Emperor's importance is so massive for Japanese national identitet that USA even didn't dare abolish Japanese monarchy altough it wanted do that. USA even allowed Hirohito remain as emperor. Him had only just denounce being god.

 

[Athelstane]

Funny thing is I think the Japanese would pause for a moment, be utterly stunned and might do the utterly unexpected. They HAD a democracy movement in the 1920s. They HAD rational people in their government even in 1942. If they were as blood crazed berserk as some of the posters above let on, they would not have quit, even if their emperor told them to surrender. He gets killed, the very man who backed the war party in the first place? Iffy. The peace party might take it as an omen.

It's a hopeful thought.

But nobody ever went broke making the worst estimate of the Japanese officer corps in 1931-45.

The death of the emperor, a divine figure, would certainly shake them more than a mere supposedly bombing raid on Tokyo. But they had their blood up - five months of basically unbroken victories which had left them masters of the entire western Pacific. If they were unwilling to submit to terms acceptable to the Americans in July 1945, why would they do so in April, 1942?

If I were a downed Doolittle flier and I heard heard the news, I would be extremely keen on not being taken alive.

 

[McPherson]

It's a hopeful thought.

悪因悪果 “Evil cause, evil effect.”

The Japanese are an omen driven people. Many of their sayings and metaphors are based on a thought process of imagination versus reality. SHOCK is especially devastating to such a cultural viewpoint. The emperor's death has happened in Japan's past under these kinds of circumstances. It has resulted in an either or dichotomy among the clans; especially the NAVAL clan, the Satsuma..

But nobody ever went broke making the worst estimate of the Japanese officer corps in 1931-45.

Kimmel, Leahy, Pye, Crace, Short, Phillips, Wavell, Mountbatten, Percival etc. But your point is fair. I merely wish to demonstrate that if the Japanese were as fanatical as some suggested; Kurita, Nagumo, Abe, Braindead Takagi, Inoue, Ozawa and even the great Yamamoto, himself; would not have turn tail and run for their lives in the face of inferior forces arrayed against them who were prepared to outfight them to the death (as they suspected). People forget that the WW II Japanese usually QUIT or retreated when they had a clear choice of fight or face certain defeat. When you assume suicide, that only happens when the Japanese feel they are cornered and they know they have no way out. They are rational people. They are not insane.

The death of the emperor, a divine figure, would certainly shake them more than a mere supposedly bombing raid on Tokyo. But they had their blood up - five months of basically unbroken victories which had left them masters of the entire western Pacific. If they were unwilling to submit to terms acceptable to the Americans in July 1945, why would they do so in April, 1942?

Good point. One does not know how close to irredeemable disaster the Japanese came on several occasions during the ABDA campaign. A shock there would have sobered them up instantly from their "victory disease", an apt description of the Japanese cloud cuckoo land fantasy they were experiencing militarily in 1942. Put a Doolittle cherry on top of it, and voila. But you had to have that shock to set up the right mindset. I have my own thoughts about that, doing CARDIV 5 in at Coral Sea and then massacring the rest of Kido Butai at Midway would have just been the omens that would have sent the Japanese scurrying to the peace table.

If I were a downed Doolittle flier and I heard the news, I would be extremely keen on not being taken alive.

RTL, they weren't. They HEARD about some of what happened actually happened at Coral Sea and New Guinea.

 

[McPherson]

It really depends. There are low and middle rank people who attempted to coup and continue the war when the Emperor decided to quit in 1945.

True, but if the genkun put their feet down, as they did during the last war council once Hirohito quit, then the young hotheads will get nowhere. That is probably where the emperor or his successor/regent becomes important. I agree that is the one decision nexus where things could really get ugly, if the actual ultimate decision maker is a complete psychotic? That is not endemically Japanese, by the way. I can think of two other "madmen" who fit that circumstance and exercised such decision nexii, who were contemporaries quit easily. Both of them had to die for the world to be a safer place.

 

[ghappy1000]

What about Midway?

 

[McPherson]

What about Midway?

It had the shock effect, but not where it counted... yet. The IJN knew they were done. The IJA got theirs at the Turkey Shoot. Once that happened, the Japanese government actually started to look for a way to end the war on some kind of "acceptable" terms. Their civilian leadership problem and ours, was by then with the military so far gone into metaphorical thinking, and with the Americans so bitter and enraged, that no-one on either side, understood how to blast the Japanese IGHQ out of their fantasyland or make the Americans see that there was a genuine peace movement in Tokyo. If we can just... was the Japanese military thinking, and on the American side was the monolithic (see above.) belief that the Japanese were hellbent on speaking their language in the hot region.

Just to give some idea of how the Americans viewed DOWNFALL, they were prepared to use extreme measures to get ashore and then extreme measures to stay.

Needless to say, I regard those measures as crimes against humanity and certainly despicable planned atrocities in a Pacific war that already included horrors that would make a barbarian of the dark ages blanche in revulsion.

 

[Dorknought]

Honestly? I doubt that they would, thinking that it would give them the popular support to take complete control of the government over the last shreds of civil resistance.

The IJN concealed the Midway loses. The IJA felt so strongly for the safety of the Emperor that the Doolittle Raid prompted an immediate about face on Army objections to extending the Pacific defensive perimeter and specifically targeting Hawaii and the US Carrier fleet to prevent another attack on the heart of the empire. The death of the Emperor in the Doolittle Raid would be deeply embarrassing for the IJA and IJN leadership.

 

[Dorknought]

Even currently emperor is for Japneses more than just head of state. He is symbol of whole Japanese culture and nationality. Before end of WW2 emperor was semi-god and holy person. Even killiong of pope wouldn't be so bad in point of view of Catholics as killing of emperor would be for Japenses. Emperor's importance is so massive for Japanese national identitet that USA even didn't dare abolish Japanese monarchy altough it wanted do that. USA even allowed Hirohito remain as emperor. Him had only just denounce being god.

From The Clash: U.S.-Japanese Relations Throughout History p262
...The new relationship [postwar US-Japan] was neatly defined some years later when an irreverent Senator William Fullbright (D:AR) quizzed diplomat John Foster Dulles behind closed doors:
The Chairman [Tom Connally, D:TX]: You say the Emperor calls on MacArthur but MacArthur never calls on him?
Mr Dulles: This is right...
Senator Fulbright: Does that prove, you say, the Emperor is no longer regarded as God?
Mr Dulles: Yes.
Senator Fulbright: What does it prove about MacArthur?
Mr Dulles:... I evoke my constitutional privilege.

 

[1Big Rich]

Yeah, the US would be forced to fight them to the last man. In a scenario where Hirohito is killed, Halsey's proclamation that "Japanese will only be spoken in hell," will probably come true.

Agreed, as well as with the others who have speculated about retaliation against Americans.

I think if there are Japanese retaliations against Americans (civilians or POWs)/Allied personnel (all you white people look alike), when word of that gets to the US, the impact will be on the war in Europe. "Germany First" will be revoked and MAXIMUM effort will be put into defeating Japan. The American public will demand it, not in the least to prevent further atrocities, let alone revenge. Torch might still go off, but the 8th Air Force might be operating out of New Guinea, the Solomons or the Aleutians. That also means a lot of shipping that historically crossed the Atlantic will be use supporting forces in the Pacific. Lend-Lease to the UK/USSR will be scaled back, if not cancelled; the equipment will be needed to fight Japan. That might make Allied military purchases 'cash and carry'. Lend lease will likely continue for Australia and New Zealand, as long as they're in the fight with Japan. With Italy contained in the Med, Husky, Avalanche and Dragoon might be permanently canceled. The war in Europe will drag out another year, which brings us the possibility of the atomic bombing of Germany as well as Japan.

Psychologically, no American, and probably no Allied combatant, will want to be captured by the Japanese. Several years ago, a gent I used to buy 1/1200-1/1250 models from (an American who grew up in pre-war Japan) told the story of a friend, a half-Japanese, half-American who became a fighter pilot with the IJAAF. He was shot down by during a B-29 raid. He crash landed his plane near or in a city (I don't recall that detail) but he was killed by civilians who rushed him thinking he was an American. Imagine what they'll do if the Emperor is killed. Now you're a pilot and you have a choice: Bail out over Japanese territory, or go down with your plane. What do you do?

As NHBL says, it will be horrifying, a war of extermination, and in all likelihood Japan will cease to exist as a nation.

My thoughts,

 

[Max Sinister]

Maybe no Japanese emperor was ever killed in war - but certainly, more than a hundred of them have died by more or less natural causes, didn't they?

 

[Lalli]

Maybe no Japanese emperor was ever killed in war - but certainly, more than a hundred of them have died by more or less natural causes, didn't they?

I doubt that any Japanese emperor was killed in war act since Middle Ages if even then. But surely there is many not-so-natureal deaths ans such cases where cause of death was unclear.

 

[McPherson]

Maybe no Japanese emperor was ever killed in war - but certainly, more than a hundred of them have died by more or less natural causes, didn't they?

I doubt that any Japanese emperor was killed in war act since Middle Ages if even then. But surely there is many not-so-natureal deaths ans such cases where cause of death was unclear.

Ankō was assassinated in his third year of reign by Prince Mayowa in retaliation for the execution of Mayowa's father. That was in 456 A.D. or C.E. depending on your calendar

There was another utter bastard (Ankō was akin to Nero for the Japanese) named Sushun who became something like a Japanese Richard III. He got his when he ordered the murder of Prince Umako, the head of the Soga clan, who placed him on the throne after he, Umako wiped out the head of the Mononobe Clan who supported the rival prince, Prince Anahohe, the son of Kimmel (A Japanese emperor I kid you not!) and who was Sushun's half brother. Sushun turned around and tried to have Prince Umako assassinated. Umako got Sushun first. The assassin was famous, a killer by the name of Yamato no Aya no Ataikoma. The death was in 590 or 592 I believe.

At least a dozen Japanese emperors were Klingoned that way in the 2000 year history of their "unbroken reign" in Japan, many of them, "dying of natural causes when convenient" during the Shogunate.

It is a myth that the Japanese "revered" their emperors.

 

[McPherson]

Psychologically, no American, and probably no Allied combatant, will want to be captured by the Japanese. Several years ago, a gent I used to buy 1/1200-1/1250 models from (an American who grew up in pre-war Japan) told the story of a friend, a half-Japanese, half-American who became a fighter pilot with the IJAAF. He was shot down by [cause?] during a B-29 raid. He crash landed his plane near or in a city (I don't recall that detail) but he was killed by civilians who rushed him thinking he was an American. Imagine what they'll do if the Emperor is killed. Now you're a pilot and you have a choice: Bail out over Japanese territory, or go down with your plane. What do you do?

As NHBL says, it will be horrifying, a war of extermination, and in all likelihood Japan will cease to exist as a nation.

There were survivors. Granted not many, but some did live as POWs. One must remark, that the Japanese were infected with the same kind of bigotry that afflicts humanity in general and that accounts for some of the brutal behavior seen from them in the Pacific war. Plus dumping bombs on civilians is a kind of psychologically horrific event on the "mice" at the receiving end of the gifts. I would not be surprised if German civilians did not murder an allied airman or a few before the German authorities came to take the POWs away.

And there is THIS.

The utter bestiality of a criminal regime knows no limits unless there is some residual discipline to enforce the rules in place. It was a breakdown of those rules, which the Japanese had in their law in the 1930s that led to the Pacific War in the first place. We do not see this behavior in this extreme extent during the Russo-Japanese War or WW I, for example. It was present to a degree in the First Sino-Japanese War, but it was nothing like the savagery of the 2nd Sino-Japanese War, which then carried forward into the Pacific War.

 

[marathag]

We do not see this behavior in this extreme extent during the Russo-Japanese War or WW I, for example.

IJN forces would not turn over A-H servicemen to Italy, over fears they would be mistreated.

Sometimes I think the Great Kanto Earthquake did very bad things to the Japanese character

 

[McPherson]

IJN forces would not turn over A-H servicemen to Italy, over fears they would be mistreated.

Sometimes I think the Great Kanto Earthquake did very bad things to the Japanese character

Agreed. Maybe MacArthur remembered it, and what set off the anti-Korean riots during the 1923 Kanto quake aftermath, during the 45-46 famine crisis he faced?

 

[Changundramon]

If Americans killed the Emperor, and then the vengeance upon American servicemen caused a shift of the US war effort to the Pacific Theater, what would the Soviets do? Might they want to start improving relations with Japan? The main Western "ally" just left them out at the mercy of a still powerful Reich.

 

[marathag]

Might they want to start improving relations with Japan?

Better to have US as a distracted Ally than an Enemy for trading with Japan