WI: Balkan War in 1868?

[GauchoBadger]

Across the 1860's, there was apparently an effort by quite a few political entities in the Balkan peninsula (mainly Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, and anti-Ottoman Albanian tribes) to form a diplomatic alliance with the ultimate goal of creating a large-scale revolt against Ottoman rule in the Balkans, spearheaded by Prince Michael Obrenovic of Serbia. The conspiracy was already in the stage of sparking its planned uprising in 1868 when news spread of Prince Michael's assassination. The death of the First Balkan Alliance's most committed lobbyist caused it to effectively collapse, but war would still come to Rumelia in the late 1870's (with a helping hand from Russia).
So, basically, what if the Serbian Prince Michael Obrenovic had survived the assassination attempt unscathed, and went ahead with the process of declaring independence for Serbia and war against the Sublime Porte? What if war had come to the Balkans eight to nine years earlier than IOTL?
How would the Great Powers react?
Would Napoleon III prefer to support the Ottomans, like he had done alongside Britain in the course of the Crimean War? Or were Anglo-French relations already strained enough by that point as to make the younger Napoleon consider supporting the Balkan Alliance in exchange for some sort of French influence over it?
Russia? Alexander II was tsar at that time. Would he follow in his predecessor's expansionist ambitions or would he prefer not to, as his empire was growing increasingly unstable politically?
Austria-Hungary? My bet is that they would be the most firmly pro-Ottoman party in the crisis.
Bismarckian Prussia? How would a conflict in the Balkans affect the iron chancellor's ambitions towards southern Germany and against France? They could be a wildcard.
Any other thoughts?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Across the 1860's, there was apparently an effort by quite a few political entities in the Balkan peninsula (mainly Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, and anti-Ottoman Albanian tribes) to form a diplomatic alliance with the ultimate goal of creating a large-scale revolt against Ottoman rule in the Balkans, spearheaded by Prince Michael Obrenovic of Serbia. The conspiracy was already in the stage of sparking its planned uprising in 1868 when news spread of Prince Michael's assassination. The death of the First Balkan Alliance's most committed lobbyist caused it to effectively collapse, but war would still come to Rumelia in the late 1870's (with a helping hand from Russia).
So, basically, what if the Serbian Prince Michael Obrenovic had survived the assassination attempt unscathed, and went ahead with the process of declaring independence for Serbia and war against the Sublime Porte? What if war had come to the Balkans eight to nine years earlier than IOTL?
How would the Great Powers react?
Would Napoleon III prefer to support the Ottomans, like he had done alongside Britain in the course of the Crimean War? Or were Anglo-French relations already strained enough by that point as to make the younger Napoleon consider supporting the Balkan Alliance in exchange for some sort of French influence over it?
Russia? Alexander II was tsar at that time. Would he follow in his predecessor's expansionist ambitions or would he prefer not to, as his empire was growing increasingly unstable politically?
Austria-Hungary? My bet is that they would be the most firmly pro-Ottoman party in the crisis.
Bismarckian Prussia? How would a conflict in the Balkans affect the iron chancellor's ambitions towards southern Germany and against France? They could be a wildcard.
Any other thoughts?

The Ottomans would crush the Greco-Serbian alliance and their rebel allies. The Ottomans were stronger in the 1860s than the 1870s, which in the latter decade the Ottomans hold off Russia long enough, beaten back Serbia and Montenegro and a rebellion in Bosnia with less military capacity and being bankrupt. Greece, Serbia and Montenegro are hardly a threat. They'd declare war, they'd fail, they'd call for Russia to save them once again. Russia won't save them immediately. And Nappy III is still there to enforce the Treaty of Paris, which Russia wanted to get rid off. The Franco-Prussian War did not happen so Russia is not gonna save them, assuming they can save them at all. No "Bulgarian horrors" that keep the British away.

Nappy would mediate between the Ottomans and the Balkan States. If France does not face another conflict there is a chance they might join the war IF Russia enters as well which is unlikely. Austria-Hungary would play the biggest role in keep the Balkans Status Quo.

Another thing. If Nappy were to support the Balkan States then that is problematic as it would drive the Ottomans towards Russia. Ironically you'd get a Russo-Turkish alliance vs France. Unlike Russia, France can't sent 200k troops in the middle of the Balkans threatening Istanbul. Russia did twice (1829, 1878) in four wars in the 19th century and operated 3 time is the core of the Ottomans.