WI Austria-Hungary survives WW1?

[Fehérvári]

POD: Austria-Hungary remains on the defence through 1918, the Italian Front doesn't break, and the Entente's advance on the Balkans is halted somewhere in Central Serbia thanks to Austro-Hungarian reinforcements and Entente logistical limits. (By this point, Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire already surrendered).

With the war situation hopeless, but the frontlines yet stable, the Austro-Hungarians abandon their German allies and sign an armistice with the Entente around the same time as IOTL.

Following the signing of the armistice, the governments of Austria and Hungary concentrate all their efforts to restore order and maintain control within the empire, and despite the incredibly bad situation, they ultimately succeed in their endeavor.

In the Treaty of Saint-Germain, Austria-Hungary cedes South Tyrol, Austrian Littoral(including Trieste), Tarvisio, the Snežnik Plateau and some Dalmatian Islands to Italy, Kotor and its vicinity to Serbia(which annexed Montenegro), and Galicia to Poland. Bukovina is also ceded to Poland, but it is immediately transferred over to Romania. Austria-Hungary's concession in Tianjin is restored to China.

On none-territorial matters, the treaty more or less mirrors Versailles: reparations, war guilt, limitations on the armed forces, etc.

Spoiler: Europe, circa 1930

Now, with the stage set like that, how could things in Europe (and in the world) develop in the following years and decades? Tell me what you think!

(I would really appreciate if the thread wouldn't get derailed by debate about the plausiblity of the setup. Thanks in advance!)

 

[Fehérvári]

One thing is certain: The economy would be in terrible condition, albeit much less so as in OTL. Still, the country's ability to pay reparations would be rather limited, imo. The question is how would this play into Germany and the Entente's conflict over the German reparations? The 1921 London Schedule of Payments might require Germany to pay less, as some of the burden (that IOTL couldn't really be shifted towards the other defeateds) would be placed on the Habsburg Monarchy instead. However, I don't believe this would change German behaviour much, which would still lead to the occupation of the Ruhr and affiliated events happening.

With Italy, Romania and Serbia ready to jump at Austria-Hungary at a moment's notice, Vienna and Budapest would probably be much less eager to defy their reparation obligations, however the financial realities of the state might require them to do so anyway. Taking a common stance with Germany against the reparations would likely be considered unwise, but could the Habsburg Monarchy acquire concessions on their own?

 

[Fehérvári]

Another thing I'm unsure about is Italy. Would fascists still take over the country? From what I gathered, the political situation in the country shouldn't be much different compared to OTL. Albeit the absence of Vittori Veneto ITTL would probably prevent the idea of "mutilated victory" from arising, the Red Biennium would still lead to the establishment warming up to fascists, imo. From that point, nothing really stops events like in OTL taking place. Or what do you think?

 

[lukedalton]

Good news: Central Europe economy is not problematic as OTL due to continued existence of A-H and the various little wars post WWI will not happen including the one that where the romanians looteed everything possible from Hungary...end of the good news
Bad News: oh boy

Reparations; Serbia, Romania and Italy will want them, OTL as not only the war had been very costly but A-H had looted everything possible from the occupied zone leaving behind them a lot of destruction. OTL due to the collapse of A-H and the clear incapacity of the successor state of pay they were forgotten but here? Not a change and the capacity of Wien to pay them will not be a factor like Germany
Post war stability: are we joking? Not only they have lost the biggest conflict know to men till that moment, with millions of dead, wounded and MIA and the economy in shambles and a vast amount of debt but nationalism is on the rise and a civil war just beyond his eastern border with this new ideology making a lot of inroads in the Empire. Now image the italian biennnio rosso, put in on steroids and apply to all the A-H empire. Basically A-H future is

Regarding Italy, well strategically his position is better than OTL, the continued existence of A-H mean that she is still too needed to see her interest ignored by the other power and in any negotiations Wilson will support Italy if the other option is A-H, so a less problematic Versailles, no Fiume takeover for D'Annunzio (that was the inspiration for Benny), some more money (or at least the promise of it) due to the reparations from A-H and even the communist will think twice before starting a revolution with the menacing presence of A-H on the other side...unless it's so engufed in his own problematic communist insurgenc y

 

[Lalli]

A-H would be economically pretty bad altough not that bad as post-A-H states in OTL. There would be still iinstability but if Karl I and his government manages to stabilise things and federalise the empire it might get more time or even survive to 2023.

Germany probably still sees rise of nazism altough it has probably pay lesser of reparations than in OTL. And I guess that nazis and basically all of Germans would hate A-H since it would be seen as traitor who left the war too early.

 

[Fehérvári]

Reparations; Serbia, Romania and Italy will want them, OTL as not only the war had been very costly but A-H had looted everything possible from the occupied zone leaving behind them a lot of destruction. OTL due to the collapse of A-H and the clear incapacity of the successor state of pay they were forgotten but here? Not a change and the capacity of Wien to pay them will not be a factor like Germany

What do you mean by "the capacity of Wien to pay will not be a factor"?

It is the Reparation Commission that sets the amount and schedule of payments, which includes not only Italy, but also France and Britain among others. If A-H acts in good faith, I see no reason why it wouldn't be provided some leniency. This could possibly throw a wedge between Germany and Austria-Hungary, which would be seen as a boon to the British and French.

Post war stability: are we joking? Not only they have lost the biggest conflict know to men till that moment, with millions of dead, wounded and MIA and the economy in shambles and a vast amount of debt but nationalism is on the rise and a civil war just beyond his eastern border with this new ideology making a lot of inroads in the Empire. Now image the italian biennnio rosso, put in on steroids and apply to all the A-H empire.

I was thinking along the lines of compromises with moderate elements (socdems, autonomists) dulling the fangs of the anti-establishment extremists. This would help weather the worst period.

no Fiume takeover for D'Annunzio (that was the inspiration for Benny), some more money (or at least the promise of it) due to the reparations from A-H and even the communist will think twice before starting a revolution with the menacing presence of A-H on the other side...unless it's so engufed in his own problematic communist insurgenc y

So you don't believe Mussolini would come to power ITTL? I believe otherwise. First of all, A-H would hardly be seen as a threat considering the restrictions on its military. As you also wrote, A-H would go through a rather tumultous period on the top of that. So Socialist strikes and other actions, and right-wing reactions would still allow Mussolini to position himself favourably. Ofcourse his ascension to power is far from given, however I don't see any reason why it would be any less likely compared to OTL.

A-H would be economically pretty bad altough not that bad as post-A-H states in OTL. There would be still iinstability but if Karl I and his government manages to stabilise things and federalise the empire it might get more time or even survive to 2023.

If not else, Czech would certainly be granted official status in the Bohemian crownlands. Transylvania would also receive the status of Croatia (with Romanian, Hungarian and German becoming official languages in the region). The unification of Croatia, Dalmatia and Bosnia is also a likely development. There would certainly be a pivot towards a tetrarchal system, but dualism would probably still remain the official structure of the monarchy for the time being.

Germany probably still sees rise of nazism altough it has probably pay lesser of reparations than in OTL. And I guess that nazis and basically all of Germans would hate A-H since it would be seen as traitor who left the war too early.

Austrian-German anymosity would certainly be an interesting development. I wonder how WW2 could potentially play out ITTL given these circumstances.

 

[lukedalton]

What do you mean by "the capacity of Wien to pay will not be a factor"?

It is the Reparation Commission that sets the amount and schedule of payments, which includes not only Italy, but also France and Britain among others. If A-H acts in good faith, I see no reason why it wouldn't be provided some leniency. This could possibly throw a wedge between Germany and Austria-Hungary, which would be seen as a boon to the British and French.

It was irrilevant for Germany and all the A-H neighbourgh not only have a lot of war debt but has seen their occupied territory razed by the A-H army as they needed everything they can loot, so i doubt that moderation and forgiveness will be a factor and even the French need money and Wilson will like A-h even less then he liked Italy OTL; not only that but giving a lot of reparations to the Austrian is a sure way to appease Italy and keep them quiet.

I was thinking along the lines of compromises with moderate elements (socdems, autonomists) dulling the fangs of the anti-establishment extremists. This would help weather the worst period.

It will surely help but success of the moderate in the interwar period was...lacking very lacking; it was not a time for moderation, the old enstablishment had lost any credibility and new ideology are appeared and the hapsburg army once a pilallar of the monarchy is now a pale shadow of itself. The enstablishment itself was very dubious of the possibility of survival of the Empire in case of a victory past 1917, here we are talking about a defeat. Honestly it's much more probable that whoever is in charge in Wien will attempt the OTL italian way and give power to their version of the fascist hoping they eliminate the communist and the various nationalist otherwise the only one that can keep an unitary state are the communist

So you don't believe Mussolini would come to power ITTL? I believe otherwise. First of all, A-H would hardly be seen as a threat considering the restrictions on its military. As you also wrote, A-H would go through a rather tumultous period on the top of that. So Socialist strikes and other actions, and right-wing reactions would still allow Mussolini to position himself favourably. Ofcourse his ascension to power is far from given, however I don't see any reason why it would be any less likely compared to OTL.
.

No Fiume takeover and that was not only the bluprint for the march of Rome but had put D'Annunzio and Mussolini in the media spot and showed how weak was the liberal government, different Versailles as the continued presence of A-H mean that Italy (for the British and the French) is still important for the balance of power and less a potential adversary in the balkans and Wilson will hate A-H with a passion so in general the italian delegation will be treatead much better and with less animosity so no need to leave the conference and the humiliating return, again less loss of face for the liberal government and less blood for the shark to smell.
Plus in general with A-h still existing, the fear of an external enemy will keep many from going full revolution/civil war for fear of a possible intervention, things were too recent and as in Germany there will need time to fully enact the restriction; sure that strikes will happen as riots and fight between factions but things in general will be much under more control.

 

[Fehérvári]

It was irrilevant for Germany and all the A-H neighbourgh not only have a lot of war debt but has seen their occupied territory razed by the A-H army as they needed everything they can loot, so i doubt that moderation and forgiveness will be a factor and even the French need money and Wilson will like A-h even less then he liked Italy OTL; not only that but giving a lot of reparations to the Austrian is a sure way to appease Italy and keep them quiet.

I'm not talking about dropping reparations altogether or anything like that. But taking into account lost lands, turned over assets, expanding the acceptable kinds of commodity payments, setting a fair gold value for these commodities, setting quotas that can be met, and greenlighting loans for economic reconstruction; all of these would be a huge boost to A-H's ability to pay.

It will surely help but success of the moderate in the interwar period was...lacking very lacking; it was not a time for moderation, the old enstablishment had lost any credibility and new ideology are appeared and the hapsburg army once a pilallar of the monarchy is now a pale shadow of itself. The enstablishment itself was very dubious of the possibility of survival of the Empire in case of a victory past 1917, here we are talking about a defeat.

The zeitgeist of the era revolved around the perceived strength of nationalism and the superiority of nation states. Feeling pessimistic about the future prospects of the Habsburg Monarchy was understandable given these assumptions. These assumptions however weren't necessarily warranted. The very much expected Bosnian Serb uprising in 1914 didn't materialise at all for example. The various nationalities were also much more reliable than many expected.

Honestly it's much more probable that whoever is in charge in Wien will attempt the OTL italian way and give power to their version of the fascist hoping they eliminate the communist and the various nationalist otherwise the only one that can keep an unitary state are the communist

Giving power to fascists is not an option exactly because most of them are nationalist extremists. Given the way Austria-Hungary is, they are just as much anti-establishment as the communists. However since fascistic elements are not united under the same nationalism, they would be a much less potent force compared to Italy.

Another difference compared to Italy is the absence of liberal-catholic split. This gives the establishment a wider base to work with. As liberal ideas lose popularity, the establishment in Austria can much more easily shift towards more christian social policies. This could allow for cooperation and compromise with more moderate social democratic elements.

No Fiume takeover and that was not only the bluprint for the march of Rome but had put D'Annunzio and Mussolini in the media spot and showed how weak was the liberal government

The 1919 election results were abyssmal for Mussolini, even IOTL. It was the anti-socialist violence of the fasces that helped Mussolini to power, not the Fiume debacle.

Wilson will hate A-H with a passion

Why exactly? Wilson adocated for self-determination for the nations of Austria-Hungary, but them acquiring considerable autonomy the way I detailed above could still be seen as acceptable. If not else "hate with passion" sounds a bit strong to me.

the italian delegation will be treatead much better and with less animosity so no need to leave the conference and the humiliating return, again less loss of face for the liberal government and less blood for the shark to smell.

Would they? ITTL Italy didn't break the Austro-Hungarian lines, so any prestige linked to that would be absent ITTL. Furthermore, Italy would still not get either Dalmatia or Fiume. The US objection to Italian designs on Dalmatia still would be the same, meanwhile Fiume would be deemed necessary for A-H to retain to avoid it becoming completely reliant on foreign(German) ports for its overseas imports.

Plus in general with A-h still existing, the fear of an external enemy will keep many from going full revolution/civil war for fear of a possible intervention, things were too recent and as in Germany there will need time to fully enact the restriction; sure that strikes will happen as riots and fight between factions but things in general will be much under more control.

Restrictions might take some time to be implemented, true. But I don't think fear of A-H intervention would dampen revolutionary activity significantly. German revolutionaries certainly weren't so sensitive about the threat posed by France and Britain.

 

[Count]

I must say the monarchy’s survival is difficult, the maintenance of the Austrian-Hungarian union harder still, and I think this is too lenient a treaty. We are neglecting the Serb question.
The Serbians were already guaranteed Bosnia, Slavonia and much of the Banat and other Hungarian border regions. The fact that in this the Hungarians would remain in occupation would not necessarily work in their favour here - Wilson’s commitment to self-determination and the allied determination to neutralise Austria would still result in an ultimatum to hand over the required territory, one which Austria-Hungary can scarcely refuse, just as the Germans were forced out of the Baltic and Poland. Likewise Romania will be insisting on half of Transylvania at the very least.
The Turks were able to make new facts on the ground through several reasons, including that the minorities were too dispersed or thoroughly massacred to form viable independent states, the weakness of Greece, and the fact that fundamentally the Allied governments were unwilling to shed blood and treasure over an impoverished Anatolian plateau.
Austria is something rather different, it’s the instigator and second mover of the war, still under the leadership of the Habsburg monarchy, the Hungarian oligarchy and the Austrian military-political elites. Universal suffrage in Transleithania and autonomy for the Czechs are the very least that can be expected, and it’s likely even more will be demanded. The Allies have all the incentive in the world to require these cessions and ultimately the Austro-Hungarians will have no choice but to agree.
Edit: another thing I’ll note is that without the collapse to ‘wipe the slate clean’ - the grounds Wilson used to ignore the Treaty along with self determination - as it were, the Treaty of London assigning northern Dalmatia to Italy would probably remain in effect, even if it eventually gets negotiated down from its fullest extent - it’s one thing to deny Italy Dalmatia to fulfil concerns of self-determination and create a strong Yugoslavia, another to leave it in Austrian hands, the opposite of what Wilson, Italy, or any of the Entente would want.

 

[marathag]

Interesting if A-H turns out to be the last CP member member standing tall, with the Ottomans falling under British pressure as OTL, and the Germans collapse from the US/UK and French forces breaking thru in October

 

[Fehérvári]

I must say the monarchy’s survival is difficult, the maintenance of the Austrian-Hungarian union harder still, and I think this is too lenient a treaty. We are neglecting the Serb question.
The Serbians were already guaranteed Bosnia, Slavonia and much of the Banat and other Hungarian border regions. The fact that in this the Hungarians would remain in occupation would not necessarily work in their favour here - Wilson’s commitment to self-determination and the allied determination to neutralise Austria would still result in an ultimatum to hand over the required territory, one which Austria-Hungary can scarcely refuse, just as the Germans were forced out of the Baltic and Poland. Likewise Romania will be insisting on half of Transylvania at the very least.

The Serbs lost, Romania betrayed the Entente by signing a separate peace, while Italy failed to defeat Austria-Hungary on the field. What you're saying is logical, but the Entente has no reason to go out of their way to appease these powers. That would just needlessly extend the conflict. By holding the lines, and potentially providing the opportunity to strike the undefended German underbelly, Austria-Hungary has not one, but two trump cards for its armistice negiotiations with the Entente.

 

[lukedalton]

I'm not talking about dropping reparations altogether or anything like that. But taking into account lost lands, turned over assets, expanding the acceptable kinds of commodity payments, setting a fair gold value for these commodities, setting quotas that can be met, and greenlighting loans for economic reconstruction; all of these would be a huge boost to A-H's ability to pay.

Again look at what happened to Germany? Repeat with A-H simple that...everything else is wishfull thinking

The zeitgeist of the era revolved around the perceived strength of nationalism and the superiority of nation states. Feeling pessimistic about the future prospects of the Habsburg Monarchy was understandable given these assumptions. These assumptions however weren't necessarily warranted. The very much expected Bosnian Serb uprising in 1914 didn't materialise at all for example. The various nationalities were also much more reliable than many expected.

That was before 4 years of war, millions of death and crippled and an economy down the toilet with a political system that had lost any semblance of credibility; as said many many many times, the problem is not during the fight but once the bullet stop and you fully realize what happended and you have time to really think. The Empire had lost the biggest massacre know to man till that moment, there is no way that things go back peacefully as they were before like the Wien enstablishment want or the Magyarization effort like the big wig in Budapest want...all the minorities that had fought hard want to be payed back and nobody in the high place had the will, capacity and possibility to cover that price.
Not only that but there are new ideology that are spreading and are not very sympathetic with the current status of the Hapsburg Empire, not considering the civil war in Russia and the revolution in Germany that will spread in A-H making things even more volatile

The 1919 election results were abyssmal for Mussolini, even IOTL. It was the anti-socialist violence of the fasces that helped Mussolini to power, not the Fiume debacle.

Sorry but nope absolutely not, Fiume for Benny was like the Apprentice for Trump a way to make his name very famous and there were a lot of right wing faction that fight the communist and socialist and as i said, Fiume not only weakened the image and the perception of the liberal government but also was the blueprint for the march of Rome.

Another difference compared to Italy is the absence of liberal-catholic split. This gives the establishment a wider base to work with. As liberal ideas lose popularity, the establishment in Austria can much more easily shift towards more christian social policies. This could allow for cooperation and compromise with more moderate social democratic elements.

The Enstablishment had lost so much credibility that's not even funny, sorry but after losing tje war they will be politically deader than dead, nationalism and communism will be on the rise and the october revolution will weaken the moderate socialist on the movement and strenghten the more radical faction like happened elsewhere.

Why exactly? Wilson adocated for self-determination for the nations of Austria-Hungary, but them acquiring considerable autonomy the way I detailed above could still be seen as acceptable. If not else "hate with passion" sounds a bit strong to me.

Because Wilson will not find it acceptable and frankly his opinon is the only one that count at Versailles as neither France and UK will fight too much against him for that; Wilson basically humiliated an ally because he thought he was not entitled to land that were ethnically not italian image his opinion of an enemy that put a fresh paint of coat in an old building and whose survival is not assured and that basically the representation of everything dislike in the old order. He will go for destroying A-H probably not but don't expect any favor or mercy and in this situation Serbia and Italy will be supported by him.

Would they? ITTL Italy didn't break the Austro-Hungarian lines, so any prestige linked to that would be absent ITTL. Furthermore, Italy would still not get either Dalmatia or Fiume. The US objection to Italian designs on Dalmatia still would be the same, meanwhile Fiume would be deemed necessary for A-H to retain to avoid it becoming completely reliant on foreign(German) ports for its overseas imports.

Prestige is irrilevant, look at Greece and Romania, worse performance greater prize and better treatment than Italy; what's really important is the balance of power and the strategic consideration and while Wilson had objection to the italian design on Dalmatia, it had a lot less in weaking A-H and Wien is not in any shape to refuse anything; sure by OP and with the of ASB the front has not fully broken but the army is basically without any supply and the general food situation is catastrophic and the problem is not 'not obtaining Fiume and Dalmatia' the real problem at Versailles was the humiliation of the italian delegation by Wilson (and the Anglo-French) but in this situation there is no incentive in supporting A-H instead of Italy even because in this scenario more than imperialistic land grab looked more on strategic need.

Sorry, there is no way that A-H survive for long after losing WWI, expecially with a civil war in the east, a revolution in the north, nationalism spreading everywhere in the Empire and a political class and monarchy that had lost a lot of his prestige and credibility non including the millions of deaths, crippled and the economy destroyed. Why the Czech, the Romanians, the Croats want to remain in the Empire? What their benefit in this age of nationalism in remaining in a defeated and crippled nations that need so many reforms that once finished will be a totally different thing

 

[Fehérvári]

Interesting if A-H turns out to be the last CP member member standing tall, with the Ottomans falling under British pressure as OTL, and the Germans collapse from the US/UK and French forces breaking thru in October

Admittedly an unlikely scenario, but I find it most interesting. A-H holding out like this might restore some of the lost prestige of the K.u.K Army. Going out on a high note like this could also have some positive effects on the faith in the country as a whole.

Still, this survived A-H would be significantly weaker compared to the pre-war era. Its population would be significantly lower and its economy would need time to recover. With this in mind, how likely would the country being granted permanent seat in the Security Council once it joins the League of Nations?

 

[marathag]

With this in mind, how likely would the country being granted permanent seat in the Security Council once it joins the League of Nations?

It, like the following UN, was a bit of a Winner's Club, losers need not apply to the permanent seats.
Germany was let in in 1926? or so, and Austria and Turkey, ignored.

Unless Charles is able to salvage something from the Sixtus Affair, or it just is successful.
Then the Empire is a 'winner' to a degree, and then Germany gets to be the Bad Guy.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

If Austria-Hungary somehow survives, even it its a federation of Austria, Slovenia, Croatia,and the Czech lands without Hungary, it becomes much harder for Hitler to pull either German unification with Austria or the Sudetenland crisis. He may go directly for a border dispute with Poland. It would be in Nazi Germany's best interest to ally with a surviving Austrian federation or surviving Austria-Hungary, like they did IOTL with Hungary, or at least have it be a friendly neutral, like IOTL Switzerland.

However, Austrian-Hungarian neutrality does not help Germany as much as the OTL situation, where Austria, part of Bohemia, and Slovenia were German territory and were sources of manpower, they could exploit Bohemia as much as they wanted, and Hungary and Croatia were allies.

 

[Beefhammer]

If Austria-Hungary has a Marxist revolution and becomes a federal socialist republic, which of its neighbors would have the strength to mount an invasion, and how hard pressed would the new government be to defend against them?

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

If you want a POD, just have the KuK army do somewhat better in the war, but not so much better as to produce an outright Central Powers victory. Having a different chief of staff than Conrad alone and no Redl affair (which might be accomplished by having a different chief of staff) would be a suitable POD. The Dual Monarchy has more prestige, and takes more Italian territory. They then offer the Allies an armistice through back channels at the end of July 1918, when its clear the German offensives on the Western front have run out of steam. They offer pulling out of Italy completely and an independent Poland, and hint they might switch sides. Britain, France, and Italy all agree without bothering to consult Wilson. With the German army committed in the West and on occupation duties in Russia, there is nothing Germany can do about it.

This is unlikely, but certainly plausible. And it would actually leave Austria-Hungary with more territory than on the map above. Italy has already agreed to status quo ante, and the treaty with Romania has already been signed. The Allies might insist that the Serbs get Bosnia. The Austro-Hungarian position is somewhat similar to Italy and the end of World War II, and the Italians just attempted an early armistice and switching sides.

 

[Evil Crusader]

The elephant in the room, as it stands, is Communism; regardless, A-H will face her own Red Peril and it'll have an impact. I wonder if the survival of a multi-national regime would lead Communism to accentuate an emphasis on nationalism.
If we're going by Féhérvári's proposal, then I would expect to go back to enemy blocs, with France, A-H and Poland as the Versailles party and Germany, the USSR and Italy as the Revisionists; A-H will also be very concerned that both her surviving major ports (Fiume and Dubrovnik) are in the Hungarian (or Slav) area, and frankly too exposed to potential enemies. Perhaps work is started on powering up either Zara or Sibenik?
If we're going by Galba's proposal, then A-H would be the real new third power in Continental Europe. It has survived the War and outdone the mighty German Empire; that alone would be great. The ditching of Wilsonian idealism slows down work on an international organisation, though. Italy will be resentful at everybody, being forced to accept no gain for her cost, and much more likely to fall in the Biennio Rosso. And Germany will likely aim the stab in the back myth even more, because only "the treacherous Jews" could engineer such a betrayal after all. That's my impression, at least.

 

[Fehérvári]

It, like the following UN, was a bit of a Winner's Club, losers need not apply to the permanent seats.
Germany was let in in 1926? or so, and Austria and Turkey, ignored.

Germany was granted a permanent seat in 1926 though. The condition for a permanent seat was Great Power status. I'm just not sure wether A-H would still be viewed as a Great Power or not. The country would still be the 3rd most populous in Europe, and its economy would be comparable in size to Italy's, but I'm still unsure. A-H might just receive the Spanish treatment instead and become a "semi-permanent" member.

it becomes much harder for Hitler to pull either German unification with Austria or the Sudetenland crisis. He may go directly for a border dispute with Poland.

If the Germans move against Poland first, would the British and French be willing to take action against them? Or could we see an alternate Munich Agreement?

It would be in Nazi Germany's best interest to ally with a surviving Austrian federation or surviving Austria-Hungary, like they did IOTL with Hungary, or at least have it be a friendly neutral, like IOTL Switzerland.

How likely would that be though? One of the key principles of the nazis were the unification of all German-inhabited lands. Meanwhile, A-H would see Nazi Germany as an existential threat regardless, given its ultra-nationalist nature.

 

[Fehérvári]

The elephant in the room, as it stands, is Communism; regardless, A-H will face her own Red Peril and it'll have an impact. I wonder if the survival of a multi-national regime would lead Communism to accentuate an emphasis on nationalism.

Wouldn't A-H survival rather reinforce the viability multinational states, and thus reinforce the internationalist worldview of Communism?

If we're going by Féhérvári's proposal, then I would expect to go back to enemy blocs, with France, A-H and Poland as the Versailles party and Germany, the USSR and Italy as the Revisionists

Those are the blocs I was also expecting. I'm not sure how close the Soviets could cooperate with the Germans and Italians though. It would all come down to the politics of the latter two, I guess.

A-H will also be very concerned that both her surviving major ports (Fiume and Dubrovnik) are in the Hungarian (or Slav) area

Well, only the Croatian coast is available, so there's not much that can be done about the location of the ports.

and frankly too exposed to potential enemies. Perhaps work is started on powering up either Zara or Sibenik?

That's not a bad idea. Zengg/Senj and Split could be good candidates as well. Zengg would require a lot of work (to put it mildly), however it would be the one closest to Vienna and Budapest.