WI: Annexation of Santo Dominica Succeeds

[LlamaLlord]

This is a thread we haven't had since 2009. What would happen if the US manages to successfully annex the Dominican Republic?
OTL is was a very close thing. So close that in fact a single man's ego could have shifted the balance - if Sumpter had been on board, or alternatively Sumpter was out of the equation, the annexation quite possibly could have succeeded. Alternatively, Grant could have gone for a joint resolution between Congress and the Senate (similar to how Texas was annexed - it's a maneuver to make it easier to garner enough votes) from the getgo.

Now I'm not suggesting immediate statehood. Annexation was hoped in the Dominican Republic to install stability, access to American markets and protection from external invasion, all things that it would gain as a territory. Also, what was viewed as a black-majority locale becoming a state in the midst of reconstruction is to put it mildly a risk to the continuing reintegration of the south.

What do you think this could mean for American intervention in Cuba (popular with the American public at first, meaning that if they acted quickly it could succeed) and future American expansion in general?

(Before this gets called an Americawank - do your research. It was a very close thing. Nobody's saying that America necessarily has to hold on to it though, it was kind of a... volatile region )

 

[iori]

Eventual major riots in Santo Doming, probably a situation similar to what Puerto Rico has, that being an autonomous Territory of the United States with mostly seperate institutions.

The thing to remember is that the majority of the Dominican population was not looking for annexation by anyone, it was the Dictator at the time who was (basically to retain his own power or atleast abscond safely with money).

If it was annexed it might eventually become a state (probably not til the early 20th century), however it would be a long process of cultural integration.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Many, many years of guerrilla fighting until the US either gives up or commits genocide of the Dominican population.

Think of the OTL situation when the US annexed the Philippines, only 30 years earlier.

The Dominican population did now want to be annexed by anybody. This entire idea of annexation was solely President Buenaventura Baez's idea, who tried 5 times (IIRC) to get the country annexed by someone.

Honestly the way I see it, if the deal is signed, he'd probably get assassinated, war would break out amongst competing factions, and Congress would probably decide to put off the deal as it'd be too much work to hold the island. They were already sharply divided on the issue. I don't see how they'd be keen on way throwing valuable men and money at a potential quagmire of a war which probably won't pay itself back for several decades at minimum.

Now, I hear Grant wanted to send many former slaves to Dominican Republic. If he did that, expect them to face mild to major discrimination, as they would probably be associated with Haitians. (However, it'd probably be less than in the South, and could be mild/minor should the Dominican population learn to differentiate between American Black and Haitians; most likely by accent). Most likely, the Black settlers who come to the area would probably be assimilated within a few generations.

Also, I'd expect it to become an earlier Puerto Rico and for a good chunk/majority of the population to still speak Spanish.

I don't see alot of white immigration to the island until after 1920 and for those who do come will probably be poor farm workers and immigrants.

 

[Nofix]

Wasn't the population of the Dominican Republic like 150,000 in 1870? I don't they'd be as much a massacre as the Philippines were (would be?) in the 1900's.

 

[iori]

The Dominican population did now want to be annexed by anybody. This entire idea of annexation was solely President Buenaventura Baez's idea, who tried 5 times (IIRC) to get the country annexed by someone.

It was actually two times, he tried to get the French to establish a Protectorate in the 1840s, then tried to get the U.S. to annex it, then later President Santana convinced Spain to annex it (the D.R. then being a Spanish Colony from 1861-1863).

Wasn't the population of the Dominican Republic like 150,000 in 1870? I don't they'd be as much a massacre as the Philippines were (would be?) in the 1900's.

In 1870 the Dominican Republic had a population of about 290,000.

That said, while it would'nt be as difficult to do as the Philippines (purely because the Philippines was more populace, having 7.4 million in 1900), it would still be difficult as it's an island, would have a population violently opposing it and the United States military was not only small (it would'nt be til the 1870's that the USM would be made powerful/enlargened), but had only few years prior finished fighting in the Civil War and was needed in the Metropole itself.

 

[David T]

This is a thread we haven't had since 2009. What would happen if the US manages to successfully annex the Dominican Republic?
OTL is was a very close thing. So close that in fact a single man's ego could have shifted the balance - if Sumpter had been on board, or alternatively Sumpter was out of the equation, the annexation quite possibly could have succeeded. Alternatively, Grant could have gone for a joint resolution between Congress and the Senate (similar to how Texas was annexed - it's a maneuver to make it easier to garner enough votes) from the getgo.

Now I'm not suggesting immediate statehood. Annexation was hoped in the Dominican Republic to install stability, access to American markets and protection from external invasion, all things that it would gain as a territory. Also, what was viewed as a black-majority locale becoming a state in the midst of reconstruction is to put it mildly a risk to the continuing reintegration of the south.

What do you think this could mean for American intervention in Cuba (popular with the American public at first, meaning that if they acted quickly it could succeed) and future American expansion in general?

(Before this gets called an Americawank - do your research. It was a very close thing. Nobody's saying that America necessarily has to hold on to it though, it was kind of a... volatile region )

There clearly were not nearly enough votes in the Senate to ratify a treaty (that takes a two-thirds vote). There were also not enough in the House as I explain at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/T3TvYi3mLTs/m9ksSN8YlFYJ However, I suppose that if Sumner had supported it, there could be enough for a joint resolution to succeed. (There was some doubt whether the Texas precedent, which was explicitly based on the power of Congress to admit new *states* could be applied to annexing a new *territory*; but of course that didn't stop Congress from doing it with Hawaii almost three decades later.)

Note that the Dominicans under the treaty would fare better than the Puerto Ricans later would, in that they would *immediately* get US citizenship. Given racial prejudice, it would be hard to admit it as a state for a long time, yet maybe a Republican Congress would do so to get some safe new votes in Congress and the Electoral College.