How did the WotR change attitudes in Castile and Scotland?
Castile already had a precedent for female monarchs. Scotland had a different set of laws, but was an actively player in the violence of the WOTR, so it's not like they ignorant to the dangers of an unclear succession, and they had little other choice than Mary by the time the crown came to her.
the story, IIRC, was that Gaston was given poison for his dad by Carlos el Malo under the guise that it was a "love tonic" and would at least help Gaston's parents "reconcile" (their relationship, even by the standards of the day, was deemed atrocious, and Carlos was the only reason that Gaston's dad didn't do anything "extreme"). Gaston was caught by his father (trying to sneak the love potion into the wine). And when Gaston Jr realized he had been duped, he was so overcome with guilt that he refused to eat and essentially starved himself to death.
This is a ridiculous story even by the standard of medieval history 🤣
Shortly after Philippa's failed betrothal to Foix, a match was considered with the count of Holland (Wilhelm of Bavaria-Straubing, father of the future duchess of Touraine, Brabant and Gloucester). There was also a Breton match considered after Joan Holland died. As for Elizabeth, there had been talk of a match with Charles le Fou, but I'm guessing Edward III's death or the expiry of the truce scuppered them.
I don't think I've ever heard of the Holland or Breton matches, tbh.
It's never been clear to me how serious the English and French were about royal marriages at this time. Charles V puts forward his two daughters (who both die in quick succession) and Elizabeth of Lancaster gets mentioned for Charles, but it all may have been just an exercise to see what the other side was willing to offer to make peace.
ISTR that Carlos el Malo had the ambition of a double match. One daughter to be duchess of Brittany, one to be queen of England. He sent the ambassadors but they were...waylaid by Charles V.
I don't think that's quite right ...? Charles the Bad's marriage alliance with England was discovered while Joan Holland still alive, so it couldn't have been part of a double marriage scheme. And Richard is wed to Anne of Bohemia by the time of Joan Holland's death.
Matilda had to strike a deal with Stephen to make her son a king
Not to be the "well, actually" guy, but Matilda didn't strike the deal with Stephen -- Henry did. And the treaty Henry negotiates rather explicitly says Matilda never had any right to the throne. Henry's succession is, strictly speaking, based on the fact that Stephen adopts Henry as his son in the Treaty of Westminster.
England at the time was in no economic shape for another invasion on France. Richard II looked for compromise, and I see nor reason, why John II wouldn't do the same - after all, he supported and helped Richard during Truce of Leulinghem negotionations. But John should be more effective, since 1) he was more skilled diplomat and 2) Unlike his nephew, he wasn't francophile. Of course France could start it, but it's not like they were in such great shape either. So both sides are in need for timr to catch breath, and I think that more pragmatic John II would gladly trade his right to use "King of France" title and removal of
fleurs-de-lis for some money.
I think I mostly agree with you here?
John supported Leulinghem, sure, but that the late-80s and early-90s version of John. He'd gone off and had his Castilian adventure, and been paid genuinely unbelievable amount of money to give up his claim to Castile. Richard had made him duke of Aquitaine as a reward for negotiating Castile's exit from the war. John had finally done something big with his life here. He had a legacy.
1377 John does not have this. He had some glories, like routing Burgundy in his defense of Calais, but those were tempered by disasters like the Great Chevauchée. Indeed, 1377 John, as well as both his brothers, seem eager to recreate the glories of Edward III and the Black Prince. So, ATL John II might not have the resources for a war right away -- and, as such, may seek a truce to "catch his breath," as you say -- but I think he's going to want to do something to prove he is a great warrior king as soon as he has sorted out England.
Like I said - France wasn't in such great shape either, Charles VI was a called mad for a reason, Kingdom was on the brink of civil war pretty much all the time, and France was trying luck in Italy during that time.
Well, in 1377, Charles V is king, and Charles VI won't go mad until 1392. So it's really a question of 1) can John II get himself a truce, and
fast, and 2) can he sort out his various domestic problems before Charles V gets his own house in order and goes on the offense again?
Not exactly "all of the problems" as a lot of the problems of Richard were created by him not beign able to rule personally - either because his own age or "problems" or lack of kids. There is a reason why in 1390's were affraid of another regency possibility and no clear succesion. Also, John don't have to wory about Duke of Lancaster from obvious reasons
I was referring to the situation in 1377, not for the entirety of his reign. There's going to be a clear divergence quickly, which -- again -- might include a Mortimer rebellion.
Either way, I think your analysis of John's situation in 1377 is great and excellent "starting point".
Well, thank you.
That's gonna go down well with John's English subjects. How would the issue of Gascony and homage be settled,then? Does Gaunt settle it on Bolingbroke, as earlier English kings did on their sons, and have him pay homage? Or does he settle it on a cadet Plantagenet branch (Edmund and Thomas I think are the only real options), like Richard did to John?
I don't think John is seriously going to considering selling his claims to Castile and to France
and suzerainty of Aquitaine. Though, some combination of two of these three could may be acceptable.
OTL Gascons were highly opposed to divorcing Aquitaine, so it has to be Bolingbroke.
If Beatrice of Portugal is still on the cards one assumes she'd be what Gaunt aims for his nephew. Worst case scenario he could argue that Mary's entry into church "was under duress", drag her out, and marry her to Norwich if he really wants a counterweight for Gloucester/wants to line his brother's pockets. Not sure it'd be worth antagonizing him, though.
Beatrice is good for an English prince (though who knows how the ATL Third Fernandine War would go), but I think John would need to feel pretty secure in his kingship before he allowed Edmund to uproot from England and head to Portugal to set up his son as king there.
I'd argue this is the "likeliest" one. I assume with no (?) campaign the Castillan pay offs would be butterflied? Or does Gaunt still get money? Or are these payments shifted to Isabella of Castile in ATL?
I only just realized that it's all for nothing if John and Constance have more children in ATL. She's only 23 at the time of her husband's accession here, and a surviving son by her is a game-changer.