WI: al-Qaeda Seizes Pakistani Frigate, Attacks US Ships, Sept. 2014

[FieldMarshal]

In September 2014, a group of four Pakistani naval officers conspired with al-Qaeda to take control of a frigate. Six militants dressed as Pakistani marines were to rendezvous with the frigate in an inflatable raft, whereupon they and the rouge officers would seize control of the ship and use it to attack nearby US ships on an antiterrorist patrol. The plot was foiled at the last minute when a sailor aboard the frigate noticed the approaching raft and challenged them, causing the terrorist to open fire. The militants aboard the raft were swiftly dispatched with an antiaircraft cannon, but it took hours for Pakistani marines to regain control of the frigate from the four officers.

What if they had successfully gained control of the frigate and had attacked American warships? I assume that US - Pakistani relations would be be significantly negatively impacted by this event. I could very easily see tensions arise over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons - if terrorists could convert naval officers to use a frigate to attack US ships, who’s to say they couldn’t influence some other officer to launch a nuclear attack on India or give some warheads to militants

On the flip side, I also think you might see the US and Pakistan engage in greater cooperation to ensure that terrorists are never able to infiltrate the Pakistani nuclear weapons program.

 

[destiple]

What if they had successfully gained control of the frigate and had attacked American warships?

What if they had successfully gained control of the frigate and had attacked American warships?

Lets carry this further , lets say the frigate launched ASM and struck a couple of american warships killing dozens of american sailors.Thinking they are under attack, the local USN captains take the initiative and sink the Frigate and damage other PN warships when they try to intervene killing hundreds of pakistani sailors

 

[Winestu]

Given that this occurs AFTER the American public learns that bin Laden had been hiding out in Pakistan for YEARS apparently with Pakistani government knowledge (or at least some government officials); Pakistan is going to be in a hell of a lot of trouble.

At the very least there will be a full blockade of the Pakistani coast and no ones going to pay attention to the Afghan-Pakistani border when fighting the Taliban et. al.

And, at this point, no one in the US is going to believe PKistani protests of innocence.

 

[destiple]

Exactly , infact if we have a more hawkish administration they might launch an "official" retaliation strike wiping out most of Pak Navy

 

[Darknick]

Think of it this way, look at the American response to 9/11. Al Qaeda was able to successfully attack the US Military. At the very least, Pakistan is going to be occupied Germany post World War 2 style. There will be mass destruction of Pakistani Naval assets, definite war crimes, and overall destruction that would make Iraq look like a hiccup.

 

[Livius wannabe]

Can nukes be secured before hardliners (or terrorists) can take hold of them and use them?

Also where's India in all this?

 

[Ato]

Think of it this way, look at the American response to 9/11. Al Qaeda was able to successfully attack the US Military. At the very least, Pakistan is going to be occupied Germany post World War 2 style. There will be mass destruction of Pakistani Naval assets, definite war crimes, and overall destruction that would make Iraq look like a hiccup.

That's a ridiculous stretch. The US is not going to invade and occupy Pakistan, ostensibly a major non-NATO ally, because terrorists hijacked a ship.

there would definitely be very hard questions asked of Pakistan's commitment to that alliance, and the competence of its military and internal security forces. Pakistan may well see a significant cut in the foreign and military aid it get from the US, and at most perhaps an ending of the aforementioned alliance.

That in itself would probably lead to severe instability in the Pakistani government, which could eventually lead to a hostile regime coming to power, which may a long way down the line result in American military action (but likely to spur a response from the Indians first)

 

[Richard V]

overall destruction that would make Iraq look like a hiccup.

I should say. Pakistan is the sixth most populated country in the world, more than five times that of Iraq, more than twice that of Iran. Has ten times more nukes than North Korea, and is China’s top ally.

 

[flasheart]

I still don't understand how they ever thought that was supposed to succeed.
10 men only 4 of whom probably have any of the necessary knowledge and training required to operate the ships systems are somehow supposed to overpower the 100+ crew and successfully operate the vessels SSM system. And that's assuming that there's already a worthwhile target within range.
If they actually had to take the ship out to sea to accomplish this then that's when things start to become impossible.

Unless asides from the 4 officers there were more personnel onboard who were in on the plan or at least sympathetic enough to go along with it?

 

[destiple]

I still don't understand how they ever thought that was supposed to succeed.
10 men only 4 of whom probably have any of the necessary knowledge and training required to operate the ships systems are somehow supposed to overpower the 100+ crew and successfully operate the vessels SSM system. And that's assuming that there's already a worthwhile target within range.
If they actually had to take the ship out to sea to accomplish this then that's when things start to become impossible.

Unless asides from the 4 officers there were more personnel onboard who were in on the plan or at least sympathetic enough to go along with it?

What if its a larger conspiracy and there are 100 people involved , that is enough skeleton crew to get the ship underway and operate its anti-ship missiles and main gun

 

[FieldMarshal]

What if its a larger conspiracy and there are 100 people involved , that is enough skeleton crew to get the ship underway and operate its anti-ship missiles and main gun

A larger conspiracy runs the risk of being caught. Not impossible, but very implausible.

 

[flasheart]

A larger conspiracy runs the risk of being caught. Not impossible, but very implausible.

I suppose if (and it's a big if) the 4 officers in question were the ships senior officers they could possibly bullsh*t the crew into going along with it Red October style by telling them it's some sort of snap exercise or something similar.

There's no mention of the CO or XO being involved in the plot. Without them there's very little chance of successfully duping the crew particularly the other officers. Even the communications staff onboard would probably start to ask questions after a while when they start receiving messages asking what the hell the ships doing or possibly getting told by one of the conspiriters to switch off their equipment.
The plan would almost certainly unravel when the lower ranking officers start giving orders to start up the ships SSM systems without the CO's authority. They be unlikely to even convince the bridge crew to set sail without the captain in his chair.

Given the Pakistani militaries internal security record I'd imagine that there would likely be some very robust security features and procedures around the weapon systems onboard.

All of this indicates that the plan was for the CO, XO and crew to be "dealt with" in some way and for the conspiriters to carry out the operation themselves.
Even if all 4 officers and 6 militants were qualified to do all of the necessary jobs there's no way they would be enough to do the necessary jobs and keep the rest of the crew from retaking the ship.

Even if they could somehow operate the ship and either wipe out the crew or keep them docile or at the very least prevent them from calling for help the Pakistani Navy would notice one of their ships making an unscheduled departure and investigate.

If somehow all this happened and the Pakistani Navy worked out what the conspiriters were up to would they fire upon their own ship?

 

[destiple]

MAKES FOR A great movie, Steven Siegal and Gary Busy style

 

[Joseph890]

If this actually occurred it could either cause a Civil War to break out in Pakistan or Pakistan’s militaries control over the country could break peacefully if they need to placate the United States. It could spiral into a Civil War because Parker stand is a country that has always had a very Pro active military in their government and this event would discredit them immensely. All of their opponents would use this to try to take away some of the influence the Pakistani army and security bureau has over the government. I would assume the security army would not take this lying down and would attempt to destroy the opposition if they gain too much momentum.

 

[Ak-84]

I suppose if (and it's a big if) the 4 officers in question were the ships senior officers they could possibly bullsh*t the crew into going along with it Red October style by telling them it's some sort of snap exercise or something similar.

There's no mention of the CO or XO being involved in the plot. Without them there's very little chance of successfully duping the crew particularly the other officers. Even the communications staff onboard would probably start to ask questions after a while when they start receiving messages asking what the hell the ships doing or possibly getting told by one of the conspiriters to switch off their equipment.
The plan would almost certainly unravel when the lower ranking officers start giving orders to start up the ships SSM systems without the CO's authority. They be unlikely to even convince the bridge crew to set sail without the captain in his chair.

Given the Pakistani militaries internal security record I'd imagine that there would likely be some very robust security features and procedures around the weapon systems onboard.

All of this indicates that the plan was for the CO, XO and crew to be "dealt with" in some way and for the conspiriters to carry out the operation themselves.
Even if all 4 officers and 6 militants were qualified to do all of the necessary jobs there's no way they would be enough to do the necessary jobs and keep the rest of the crew from retaking the ship.

Even if they could somehow operate the ship and either wipe out the crew or keep them docile or at the very least prevent them from calling for help the Pakistani Navy would notice one of their ships making an unscheduled departure and investigate.

If somehow all this happened and the Pakistani Navy worked out what the conspiriters were up to would they fire upon their own ship?

I missed this thread when it was fresh. The questions you raised are valid. It’s not entirely clear what exactly the conspirators were planning, most of them being dead now. The version most stated in the media, suffer from some very serious practical problems, and has been doubted by experts. Certainly the Navy men need to have known that BSing their way past the watch was a non-starter. Trying to get past in violation of standing orders is something officers regularly test enlisted on, and the sailor would not be inclined to let them through.

Trying to run a ship against the wishes of the crew is basically impossible.