WI: A Red Venezuela instead of Cuba

What would have been the actions or the course of the Cold War if Che Gevara had set his sights on Venezuela, ruled until 1958 by a military dictatorship, instead of Cuba? If there had been during the 50s instead of '59 in Cuba? Would Venezuela still align with the USSR, or even still host SS20 Spvietics, which could still ITTL cause a crisis, despite Venezuela being further away from Cuba? Would there still be a "Castroist" Venezuela today?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
The US would have more options than a one-and-done Bay of Pigs invasion attempt, and could have persisted in a decades long "Contra" war based out of Colombia and the Brazilian jungle. Venezuela would have had more diverse revenue streams, oil not just sugar. The Netherlands and Britain may have joined in with the Americans more in worrying about a Red Venezuela because of the proximity of the Dutch Antilles and Trinidad.
 
The US would have more options than a one-and-done Bay of Pigs invasion attempt,

Not sure the appetite for a second try would be there after a failed Gulf of Venezuela attempt. I'm sure they'd be eager backers of an internal coup. Both the real CIA and fictional variants seem to like internal plotters who ask for help than exiles.
 
Che could not have succeeded in Cuba without Fidel Castro. There was no Fidel Castro in Venezuela. Also, in Cuba, the leaders of the pre-1952 democratic governments (Grau San Martin and Prio Socarras) had benn pretty much discredited due to corruption, which was not true of Romulo Betancourt in Venezuela.

Eventually of course there was a Communist insurgency against Betancourt but it was not only unsuccessful but was dependent precisely on arms from Castro's Cuba.

(The idea that Che could make a successful revolution anywhere in Latin America he wanted to is disproven by Che's own failure and death in Bolivia.)
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Could Che have found a Fidel Castro equivalent to work with in Nicaragua, or a prior day Daniel Ortega, in this era?

I agree with @David T that Che could not magically make a revolution happen by pulling it out of his hat. On the other hand, out of the 15 or so countries of Latin America, there is not a particular reason why Cuba had to be the only 'ripe' one for leftist revolution in the late 1950s.

------Speaking of earlier in the decade, I remember a classmate of mine relating a comparison a teacher of his was making between Guatemala's Jacobo Arbenz and Bolivia's Victor Paz Estensorro. He said superficially, the two were doing similar things, taxations and nationalizations of international companies that dominated their countries in the early 1950s. For Arbenz, it was the United Fruit Company, for Paz Estensorro, it was the international tin-mining consortium. As is well-known, Arbenz got fingered as a Communist and overthrown in a CIA-backed coup. The Bolivian government nationalized the tin industry and survived to tell the tale. I think the contrast that was made between the two was that Arbenz never had any social connections to the US decision makers and his enemies controlled the narrative about what was happening that got through to Washington. Whereas Paz Estensorro got away with his economic nationalism because he knew some of the big Washington players socially, possibly including the Dulles brothers or Nixon, and played golf with them, and could narrate his side of the story favorably. Which I think was an asset that Panamanian ruler Omar Torrijos later used when nationalizing the Panama Canal, leveraging his personal friendship with John Wayne as a backchannel to US conservatives.----
 
Che could not have succeeded in Cuba without Fidel Castro. There was no Fidel Castro in Venezuela. Also, in Cuba, the leaders of the pre-1952 democratic governments (Grau San Martin and Prio Socarras) had benn pretty much discredited due to corruption, which was not true of Romulo Betancourt in Venezuela.

Eventually of course there was a Communist insurgency against Betancourt but it was not only unsuccessful but was dependent precisely on arms from Castro's Cuba.

(The idea that Che could make a successful revolution anywhere in Latin America he wanted to is disproven by Che's own failure and death in Bolivia.)
Do you think that the Cuban Revolution could have succeeded with Castro but without Che?
 
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