What would the lack of a July Monarchy have meant for the Belgian Revolution?

The summer of 1830 was a doozy. The French monarchy fell in July, to be replaced by the more liberal Orleanist kingdom, and not long after, the Catholic provinces of the Netherlands were in rebellion. Assuming the former being avoided does not prevent the latter, what becomes of Belgium? Does it still come into existence? Could Louis-Philippe end up king there instead of ruling France in OTL? Discuss.
 
The summer of 1830 was a doozy. The French monarchy fell in July, to be replaced by the more liberal Orleanist kingdom, and not long after, the Catholic provinces of the Netherlands were in rebellion. Assuming the former being avoided does not prevent the latter, what becomes of Belgium? Does it still come into existence? Could Louis-Philippe end up king there instead of ruling France in OTL? Discuss.
Without the Orleanist takeover in France, is more likely seeing OTL Belgium’s rebellion resolved with a return to the status quo as the separation between Netherlands and Belgium was not inevitable in OTL and ATL would be much less likely. Also giving Belgium to any French prince is a big no for England.
 
the Catholic provinces of the Netherlands were in rebellion.
Not correct. The province of North Brabant for example, most certainly catholic, did not revolt.

In response to your question, without French intervenention the Dutch would probably have a militairy victory against the Belgians and will be able to restore order. The 10 day campaign of the Dutch was pretty much a succes, until the French intervened. Even if Belgium comes into existence (which I doubt) at least the border will be more advantages to the Dutch (Belgian Limburg and Luxemburg remain Dutch, a better connection of Zeelandic Flanders to the Netherlands, etc).
 
I don’t think it’d be the end of Belgian independence movements even if the revolution was defeated, the idea of that region being it’s own country didn’t begin in 1830 and it probably wouldn’t die either. Nationalism isn’t fully developed as an ideology/concept yet, and there’d probably be revolutions in 1848 again, and possibly later. I’m sure Nap. 3 would have interests in seeing the region separated from the Netherlands, if he still comes to power.
 
I don’t think it’d be the end of Belgian independence movements even if the revolution was defeated, the idea of that region being it’s own country didn’t begin in 1830 and it probably wouldn’t die either. Nationalism isn’t fully developed as an ideology/concept yet, and there’d probably be revolutions in 1848 again, and possibly later. I’m sure Nap. 3 would have interests in seeing the region separated from the Netherlands, if he still comes to power.
It is certainly not the end of the movement. That said, if the independence movement would be crushed some leaders would be arrested, several would simply flee abroad. So the sting would be removed, at least for the moment. And when we approach 1848 there would be a more general unrest in the Netherlands, OTL leading to Thorbecke and its new constitution. I think something similar would be happeing in this timeline, some Belgians revolutionaries (possible even most) would support Thorbecke and with the new constitution most problems the Belgians had would be adressed. Than you also get the rise of Flemish nationalism, ot at least the Flemish opposition against the Francophone upper and middle class, which ties them closer to the Netherlands. In the end I think that if the Belgian revolt would be crushed there is a good chance there never will be a Belgium. Although I could see a possibility of Wallonia splitting of.
 
Without the example of the July Revolution, there may be no uprising in Belgium but a continued reform movement. If there is an uprising, it probably is defeated, as it seems unlikely that Charles X would support a revolt against a monarch. He might sympathize with the grievances of Belgian Catholics but that would probably be all.
 
Great insights everyone. Would a Bourbon restoration interested in growing its influence really stay out of the crisis in the Netherlands if it unfolded anyway? Obviously, here would be weariness about revolutionaries, but there's also the chance of growing French influence.
 
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