What sort of Peace Treaty would occur in a late CP victory?

[LordIreland]

Here is the PoD:

There seems to be a consensus of opinion that America joining the Entente is a death knell for any chance of a German victory. So I decided to butterfly away the Zimmerman telegram. Likewise the sinking of the Lusitania (apparently is was a random ‘lucky break’ for the U-Boat involved anyway). The unrestricted submarine warfare campaign is a little tougher, but can be done, I refer you to OWs latest TL for an inventive way of doing this.

As Susano pointed out a late CP victory will make sure that all the combatants are ‘mortgaged to the hilt’ with war-loans and weary from four years of industrialised manslaughter. So, events proceed pretty much the same as in OTL with exceptions mentioned above. Russia is defeated and humiliated at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and Germany is able to transfer around 50 or so divisions to the western front for a knock out blow.

This is the real POD. Unlike in OTL Ludendorf actually has a vague gameplan in mind. He is quoted as saying ‘we just punch a hole in their line and the rest will follow’. Whilst this proved true in Russia, it wasn’t the case in OTL. But now, Ludendorf has a vague idea of what happens after the hole has been punched. He plans to pin the BEF against the channel and threaten Paris. It’s a close run thing, losses are heavy, but in the end the Germans win through and manage to isolate the BEF and threaten Paris.

Things don’t look great for the Entente at this point and its about to get worse. On the Italian front Von Straussenberg backs Von Hotzendorf (arguably the best of the Austrian WW1 generals) over Boroevic as supreme commander of the Austrian offensive. Von Hotzendorf concentrates his forces for a pinpoint style attack on 15th June 1918 (in OTL VS couldn’t decide between the two generals and divided his forces evenly and allowed both to attack along the entire front, unsurprisingly it was a disaster for the Austrians). The Italian lines are ruptured and after heavy fighting the Italians are forced to retreat. The Austrian breakthrough dislocates the Italian lines and leads to a general withdrawal/route. This is the final straw for the Italians, their army in tatters and the Austrians seemingly about to burst into northern and central Italy, the Italian government requests a cessation of hostilities.

The Italian ‘betrayel’ is the final straw for France. Many units simply refuse to move, when ordered to counter-attack the Germans. First Paris and then the rest of France explodes into violence. Within a few days, what is left of the French gov’t requests an armistice with the CPs.

German sends out peace feelers to Britain and points out that the BEF is still intact…for now, oh and btw they want their colonies back!

Re other fronts, Allenby is at Jerusalem and by the time of the failures in Italy & France is getting ready for his advance towards Meggido. Although he may be unable to do this if troops have been siphoned off to bolster the 'Channel Pocket' (the BEF basially)

The Grand Fleet is intact, the Hoch See Flotte is in pretty much the same state as in OTL and needs an extended period of tlc

So, France and Italy are prostrate before a victorius Germany & A-H (A-H is currently riding high in the 'Great Power prestige stakes' seeing as how it was her victory that led to the cascade collapse of Italy & France.

Great Britain is still essentially in a strong position, her fleet is intact, the restricted submarine warfare has hurt her less than the unrestricted attitude of OTL. She holds all the German African possesions bar East Africa where Von Lettow-Vorbeck has worked his magic. But, obviously, she can't fight the entire CP on her own.

Bulgaria is intact, victorious and looking forward to a chunk of Serbia, that may be washed down with a bit of Greece.

The Ottomans are perhaps in the weakest position of all, having part of their land occupied by a foreign power, rebellious subjects (Armenians & Arabs) and potentially about to face a serious British & Empire attack.

The Treaty of B-L is in force in the east. So, do the CPs treat with the Entente powers seperatly or as a group? What conditions will be imposed, what lands will change ownership and how much blame is to be assigned via reperations etc?

 

[Beer]

Well, the american war entry is not in all cases the end for the CP, but only if the Central Powers can hit the european Entente critically before Summer 1918. After that no way.
In this scenario the US stayed home, so this problem is not existing. I´m sure the CP would like to bundle the treaty negotiations, but that depends on british attitude. If the UK fights on, the Central Powers will make treaties with the Entente at hand and concentrate on Britain later. But it would be in London´s interest to get to the table as soon as possible, since her relative strong position will weaken more and more when the CP concentrate their forces against GB. The fall of the mainland Entente nations opened up the world markets for the CP again, since even Britain cannot blockade all of Europe, giving Germany and the other CP nations access to much needed supplies.
Whether Britain is at the table from beginning or not, the CP will not accept any bargain without ratification of Brest-Litovsk. This is a must.
Likewise the incorporation of Luxemburg into the German Empire as a Grand Duchy with some additional perks.
More later, I have a to go to work.

 

[Mikestone8]

The fall of the mainland Entente nations opened up the world markets for the CP again, since even Britain cannot blockade all of Europe, giving Germany and the other CP nations access to much needed supplies.
.

And might be in trouble with the US if she tried to.

OTL, the demands of the Allied war effort provided Americans with a huge market far exceeding what they lost through the blockade of the CPs. So for all their irritation they could live with it. But would an isolated Britain be a big enough customer on its own? If not, and she persists in trying to close the Continent to neutral ships, Washington could get quite nasty.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Britain obviously gets off lightly, since it might be said that she won "her" war against Germany by taking the German colonies, keeping the High Seas Fleet cooped up, and subjecting Germany to a tight blockade. But beating the BEF on the ground in France certainly gives the Germans extra cards, especially if there was a large haul of prisoners. One expects basically a status quo ante bellum agreement between the British and the Germans, including a return of African colonies and and maybe some help from Britain in persuading Japan to return the German colonies she captured in the Pacific. Also, there would probably be some sort of free trade agreement between the two, and an agreement not to interfere if Germany wants a better deal in China.

The French take a beating, though. I would expect a heavy indemnity similar to what she paid in 1870, the loss of some of prime colonial real estate (French Equatorial Africa for sure) and prhaps some small terrorial adjustments on the Franco-German border to bring the important coal and iron ore fields under German control. If the Germans were REALLY stupid, they might insist on military limits similar to what the Allies imposed on Germany IOTL. Much wiser would be some sort of agreement that their border remain unfortified.

Let's not forget little Belgium, by the way. So long, Belgian Congo!

Italy loses some territory up on its border with Austria-Hungary, and perhaps the choice bits of its small African possessions go to Germany. An indemnity to Austria-Hungary, too.

Bulgaria, as you say, gets some bits of Serbia and Greece, securing an outlet on the Aegean. Serbia and Montenegro are likely absorbed into Austria-Hungary, which will lead to severe indigestion, to say the least.

In addition to getting the territory it lost to the Allies back, Turkey really wanted the Suez Canal and the oil fields of Baku. Obviously, it will only get the latter, which will have pretty immense consequences. Turkey remaining in effective control of the Middle East at the beginning of the oil age will be a very interesting development.

We'll see a lot of newly-independent states popping up in Eastern Europe (Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine), and the question will be what level of influence Germany will be able to maintain over them.

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

Hmm, very basic idea of what I think a peace treaty could entail.

Britain gets to keep her African and Pacific conquests, but hands the middle eastern ones back to the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottomans regain Thessalonica and Crete, but not a lot else aside from their possessions conquered by the British. No matter, with a few years, this will lead to Turkey becoming a real petro-superpower.

Germany has a vast swathe of vassal states in the east, but loses her overseas colonial empire.

France has a few small bits of land taken by Italy, and is forced to pay reparations. She does however keep much of her colonial empire, as no-one else will really want it. Italy might get Tunisia, but this will be about it.



After fifteen years or so, Germany's control of the continent begins to slip, as Britain, being Britain, starts to stir up trouble.

 

[Lokari]

If Entente leaders are smart, the French colonial troops will declare that the government in Paris "betrayed the French people" and continue to oversee the colonies. Perhaps even more soldiers and military equipment "disgusted" by the acts of Paris ministers will evacuate from France before the peace negotations are over. And, terrible as it is, the merchant smugglers from Britian and USA and other countries will continue to support those rebels with merchandise, weapons and money in exchange for colonial goods.

Of course, under the condition that Germany really would really want to take French colonies.

 

[imperialaquila]

I think a more moderate version of OTL's Septemberprogramm is likely. No British colonies will be taken, but Belgian Congo and French Equatorial Africa are definitely going to be annexed. A few French border regions, such as Briey, will probably be annexed as well.

 

[Hades]

given OTL's Brest litovsk for a framework, i'd imagine that germany would not be letting britain keep all its colonies in Africa, and A-h might get a slice of the pie as well.

 

[Anaxagoras]

given OTL's Brest litovsk for a framework, i'd imagine that germany would not be letting britain keep all its colonies in Africa, and A-h might get a slice of the pie as well.

But Britain hasn't really been defeated, and the Central Powers are not in a position to dictate to the British the way they are to the Russians, French and Italians.

 

[Anaxagoras]

If Entente leaders are smart, the French colonial troops will declare that the government in Paris "betrayed the French people" and continue to oversee the colonies. Perhaps even more soldiers and military equipment "disgusted" by the acts of Paris ministers will evacuate from France before the peace negotations are over. And, terrible as it is, the merchant smugglers from Britian and USA and other countries will continue to support those rebels with merchandise, weapons and money in exchange for colonial goods.

If anything like that happened, the Germans would show the French what the real world is like and simply step on their throats in France until the colonies were turned over to them as agreed upon in the treaty.

 

[Douglas]

Which CP victory do you have that includes the Germans stepping on the French throats? You need such serious PODs involving the mind-bogglingly unrealistic German diplomatic team and the war situation in 1916 and 1917 and 1918 to have any real situation where Germany can "dictate" to France. Lets face it: Germany knocked out the biggest, most populous Entente member with the biggest army, and was still starving in 1918. The German troops in the last gasp of Michael were astonished that the Allied troops had butter. If the French are beaten out of Paris (how?!?), there will still be no food. The French and their British allies will wait. The harvest from the Ukraine is never coming. The only thing worse than a trite Schlieffen Plan Success CP Victory is some sort of late POD that miraculously gives the CP a victory. Michael had an outside shot at a draw; victory was no longer in the cards, realistically.

In 1918 they were asking for an annexation of East Belgium, a puppet state in West Belgium, and an annexation of the Belgian coastline around the Channel Ports. This was as mild as it got, without getting into "New Burgundy" and their other insane proposals.

Also, Hotzendorf as the savior against Italy is...odd, to say the least. His resume up to this point includes planning the opening of the Serbian Campaign (advance, disaster, retreat), the actual command of the opening offensives against Russia (advance, disaster, retreat), command during the Brusilov Offensive (disaster, retreat), and command (IIRC) during the Alpine offensive (advance, heavy casualties, stall). Boroevic was almost without a doubt the Austrian commander who knew best what his troops, divided by language and ethnicity, could realistically accomplish.

 

[Lokari]

and the Central Powers are not in a position to dictate to the British the way they are to the Russians, French and Italians.

Come to think of it, was there anything that Germans could do that to "push" Italy ?

As to France-they dealt a major, decisive blow-but are they able to press forward with occupying the whole country ?

 

[LordIreland]

given OTL's Brest litovsk for a framework, i'd imagine that germany would not be letting britain keep all its colonies in Africa, and A-h might get a slice of the pie as well.

Yes, this is what I am wondering, a harsher treaty would gain Germany more african colonies. However, given the large acquisitions in the east, the fact that the German government had already started printing 'paper money' and the general poor state of the CPs economies, would Germany want any more acquisition beyond a few french colonies?

 

[Anaxagoras]

Which CP victory do you have that includes the Germans stepping on the French throats?

As to France-they dealt a major, decisive blow-but are they able to press forward with occupying the whole country ?

They don't really need to take any more than they would already have ITTL (the most important French industrial production areas, IIRC) to step on their throats. They simply need to say that they're not leaving until the treaty terms are implemented.

 

[Lokari]

They don't really need to take any more than they would already have ITTL (the most important French industrial production areas, IIRC) to step on their throats. They simply need to say that they're not leaving until the treaty terms are implemented.

Weren't they asking for those areas anyway ?
And Germany needs their troops now to ensure food supplies and control in the strife ridden East, and to stop communist uprisings and riots.
France can use the industrial production later to rearm. It isn't starving. French can bluff their way out of this.

And like I asked-is there anything really that Germans can pressure Italy with ?
Certainly Great Britain is beyond their reach.
The German Empire isn't in the best condition to demand concessions from Western Allies besides case-fire and limited territorial concessions.

 

[Douglas]

They don't really need to take any more than they would already have ITTL (the most important French industrial production areas, IIRC) to step on their throats. They simply need to say that they're not leaving until the treaty terms are implemented.

You're suggesting that after the Germans do only slightly better than Michael IOTL (pinning the BEF in a manner separate from the French being practically impossible) that they stop, completely exhausted, and say "OK, give up colonies and territory", that the Entente will just throw in the towel?

This would be the first serious German diplomatic attempt to end the war in the West. "Why now, after serious gains, are the Germans asking for peace? Why don't they really blow the BEF off the continent and make the peace?" There's no reason for anyone to say "yes": the Germans aren't offering "Peace Without Victory", which could get some politicians to just call it a war. Instead, they demand the spoils of a victory which they haven't earned! No French politician is going to say yes unless there are German boots clanging underneath the Arc d'Triomphe, and no British politician is going to say yes while the French army is in the field. Even this fully-wanked Michael hasn't appreciably changed the strategic balance: there is a British army and a French army fully intact in the field. The Entente says "no", and the Germans can't bluff. There will be no further German offensive; their army is spent. The British blockade starves Germany, an Allied counteroffensive sends the Germans reeling back, the fleet mutinies, etc.

 

[Douglas]

Weren't they asking for those areas anyway ?
And Germany needs their troops now to ensure food supplies and control in the strife ridden East, and to stop communist uprisings and riots.
France can use the industrial production later to rearm. It isn't starving. French can bluff their way out of this.

And like I asked-is there anything really that Germans can pressure Italy with ?
Certainly Great Britain is beyond their reach.
The German Empire isn't in the best condition to demand concessions from Western Allies besides case-fire and limited territorial concessions.

Agreed...and those territorial concessions would have to be something along the lines of "sign off on Brest-Litovsk and hand back some colonies"...and even that would be a tall order.

 

[Nivek]

Where is Eurofed when we need Him??

Well against beside the discussion of the power of negotiations of the CP(who gonna be very limitated, and i recgonized two very prominent Britainwaker in the disertors) i think, you should read rast separate treaties in his TL(A Shift in priorities), that is the best outlook for a Hard battleled CP Victory in West(in fact the french morale was almost unexistance before the american comes and that is a relaity, in fact, neither having a death Starving what germany haves they have their society ready to implode more early if doesn't was for both american spare support and later the general failure of Michael), In general, Neither big rewards nor big punishent in general(The Luttich Area in Belgium will be annexed for germany, both a demilitarizion of the North france area, maybe the anexation of Belgium Congo but Asia colonies is a total lost, maybe indemities for that can be extracted, and the Ottomans area will gonna be more dificult to negotiate but Status quo ante bellum can be obtained)

well, i gonna read something and complement

Att
Nivek Von Beldo

 

[lothaw]

If we're talking 1917-18 scenario in which Imperial Germany "wins", the only plausible scenario I can think of is a white peace on the Western Front, Germany's colonies are kaputt, and the allies ratify Brest-Livorisk.

Possibly A-H making territorial concessions to Italy, and maybe British withdrawl from the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Douglas]

snip

I don't know what you mean when you say "Where's Eurofed when you need him," unless its that Eurofed has in the past said that very improbable things (Italy surviving without British coal during WW1, Italy succeeding militarily against France in 1870) are possible during the general late 19th century-early 20th century time frame.

As for being a "Britainwaker", I can assure you that I am no wanker of any sorts, and certainly not British, as 67th Tigers can readily attest. WW1 just happens to be part of history that I really enjoy studying.