What if War Plan Red-Orange happened?

[Meadow]

On what grounds exactly should we assume the historically isolationist US is going to be the aggressor here rather than the British or (even more omelet) Japanese?

Because the OP asked what would happen if the US launched Red-Orange. If you want to imagine Britain and Japan randomly decided to attack the US rather than the other way around, I guess you can reverse my post and have the UK pull out of the war after a change in government, and probably some kind of palace coup in Japan.

 

[edgeworthy]

I think that it might be possible to overestimate the effectiveness of militias against actual soldiers.

Or the fact that they would be considered Francs-tireurs, and as such illegal combatants, and NOT subject to the protections of the Geneva Convention.

(Which is something that everyone needs to be reminded of any time bands of patriotic universally armed Americans springing to the defence of their land comes up)

 

[sloreck]

Actually the laws of war on the subject of militias are somewhat more complicated. If Bubba and his buddies from the local watering hold decide to take their deer rifles and shotguns and pot some invaders, if they are caught they are Francs-tireurs (a term coined in the Franco-Prussian War) and can be legally tried for murder and executed. If, on the other hand, they are mustered in to the "Moonshine County Militia" by a competent legal authority, wear distinguishing insignia/armbands, have a command structure under "Lt Bubba" who reports to a higher authority, then according to the laws of war they are legitimate combatants and entitled to the Geneva Protections. The reason for these very specific distinctions is that in war soldiers killing soldiers is legal, soldiers killing civilians (deliberately) and civilians killing soldiers are both illegal and hence murder.

The allowance for "insurgents" who do not meet the requirements for legitimate combatants was added in the 1970s in the wake of Vietnam, and this protocol has not been signed by the USA and many others, and in any case would not apply in this OP. Absent huge shifts, both the US and the British Empire are not really going to want to get in to a lot of hostage shooting and the black flag.

 

[marathag]

Or the fact that they would be considered Francs-tireurs, and as such illegal combatants, and NOT subject to the protections of the Geneva Convention.

(Which is something that everyone needs to be reminded of any time bands of patriotic universally armed Americans springing to the defence of their land comes up)

Hanging Farmer Bob and his buddies is counteractive to keep an area passive. See occupied France and Ukraine, and they didn't have pile of civilian owned firearms.

You would get lots of gangs, see what happened during the Civil War, like with Quantrill's Raiders and other Bushwhackers

 

[Zheng He]

Or the fact that they would be considered Francs-tireurs, and as such illegal combatants, and NOT subject to the protections of the Geneva Convention.

(Which is something that everyone needs to be reminded of any time bands of patriotic universally armed Americans springing to the defence of their land comes up)

And then you have this -