As they say, the communists could win but they would have a smaller Germany with damaged cities, with their economy even worse and with the flight of many scientists, artists, indistrials and officers in their armies. this red Germany would be much weaker and would spend at least several years fixing the part of the country that they won.
What if the Spartacist Revolt of 1919 Succeeded?
- Thread starter Arctofire
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Just gonna point out some problems
Unless you will call a devastating civil war a brief scuffle the military and the Weimar Republic isn't going down without a fight. Even if the communists win they would not have control of the Rhineland which is currently under allied occupation and I really doubt Communist Germany is looking to get into a fight with France this early on. More probably the Entente will supply "white" Germany with supplies and weapons if not direct intervention all the while seizing major strategic assets like say the Kiel Canal. Chances are that if the communists win in Germany they will miss:
The Rhineland
The Ruhr region
The Kiel Canal
Which will probably form either the Rhenish Republic or a continuation of the German Republic.
First of all, a Germany recovering from its own civil war and deprived of much of its industrialized region is in no shape to help the USSR oh and Trotsky the same guy who pioneered the forced-labor method of production who used terror tactics during the Russian civil war. All I see is another dictator
Uhm what? First of all, how does the Spanish Civil war spiral into a wider conflict that somehow involves the US? 2nd of all blitzkrieg eh well to bad the professional officer corps that developed the tactics are either dead or on the other side of the Rhine. I really doubt General Von Manstein the man behind Sickles Cut is going to be able to sway the German government of his especially since he isn't working with the Germany communists on the account that he is a Prussian noble. In other words not blitzkrieg here not with the allied forces anchoring their defenses along the Rhine River and Germanies officier corp being practically non-existant.
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Unless you will call a devastating civil war a brief scuffle the military and the Weimar Republic isn't going down without a fight. Even if the communists win they would not have control of the Rhineland which is currently under allied occupation and I really doubt Communist Germany is looking to get into a fight with France this early on. More probably the Entente will supply "white" Germany with supplies and weapons if not direct intervention all the while seizing major strategic assets like say the Kiel Canal. Chances are that if the communists win in Germany they will miss:
The Rhineland
The Ruhr region
The Kiel Canal
Which will probably form either the Rhenish Republic or a continuation of the German Republic.
First of all, a Germany recovering from its own civil war and deprived of much of its industrialized region is in no shape to help the USSR oh and Trotsky the same guy who pioneered the forced-labor method of production who used terror tactics during the Russian civil war. All I see is another dictator
Uhm what? First of all, how does the Spanish Civil war spiral into a wider conflict that somehow involves the US? 2nd of all blitzkrieg eh well to bad the professional officer corps that developed the tactics are either dead or on the other side of the Rhine. I really doubt General Von Manstein the man behind Sickles Cut is going to be able to sway the German government of his especially since he isn't working with the Germany communists on the account that he is a Prussian noble. In other words not blitzkrieg here not with the allied forces anchoring their defenses along the Rhine River and Germanies officier corp being practically non-existant.
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Arctofire
Banned
Okay, I've seen the holes in my original scenario, so I have made the following modifications.
Instead of the Spartacist Revolt succeeding, as that is unlikely given that even if the Communist's had formed a separate party a few months before they would have had control of just Berlin instead of the whole country, Rosa Luxemberg and Karl Liebnecht simply survive. After their deaths there was huge infighting between the Communist leadership, which resulted in a split between the CP and the CWP. This was partly because of Paul Levi's antagonistic attitude towards the rest of the leadership, despite his theory being correct. I think if Luxemberg and Liebnecht had made the same criticism, and Luxemberg had already started to do this when she recognised that support from all of Germany was needed, it would have been heeded and a split avoided due to their highly respected position in the party. This would put them in a much more favourable position after the Kapp Putch, and with a much more united opposition, they could have taken power then.
The revolution would have been met with support in most of the OTL present day borders of Germany but would encounter huge opposition with the more conservative eastern territories such as Prussia. The entente would supply arms to the white armies led by General Ludendorff, but would be unable to send in a huge amount of troops due to opposition to continued war among their population. By 1922 Germany is split into three different states: the German Worker's Republic, the Rhineland Republic, and the Imperial State of Prussia.
Instead of the Spartacist Revolt succeeding, as that is unlikely given that even if the Communist's had formed a separate party a few months before they would have had control of just Berlin instead of the whole country, Rosa Luxemberg and Karl Liebnecht simply survive. After their deaths there was huge infighting between the Communist leadership, which resulted in a split between the CP and the CWP. This was partly because of Paul Levi's antagonistic attitude towards the rest of the leadership, despite his theory being correct. I think if Luxemberg and Liebnecht had made the same criticism, and Luxemberg had already started to do this when she recognised that support from all of Germany was needed, it would have been heeded and a split avoided due to their highly respected position in the party. This would put them in a much more favourable position after the Kapp Putch, and with a much more united opposition, they could have taken power then.
The revolution would have been met with support in most of the OTL present day borders of Germany but would encounter huge opposition with the more conservative eastern territories such as Prussia. The entente would supply arms to the white armies led by General Ludendorff, but would be unable to send in a huge amount of troops due to opposition to continued war among their population. By 1922 Germany is split into three different states: the German Worker's Republic, the Rhineland Republic, and the Imperial State of Prussia.
ManintheField
Banned
...and then the killing started...
We already know how successful communist revolutions end up looking. Germany will emerge after several decades of dictatorship demographically and economically poorer (although it would be really difficult for even a communist Germany to out-do the damage Germany did to itself IOTL in the early-mid 20th century) as yet another object lesson in death by government. I think such a world would be significantly worse, in a weird way, because the racialist policies of the OTL Nazi regime won't be so complete discredited as they were in our world. Those are some implications to shudder at.
Arctofire
Banned
What you are describing would not be possible in the event of a true workers revolution. The communism = dictatorship was only due to the isolation and backwardness of Soviet Russia. If you look at anarchist Spain or Kurdistan you would understand that not all communist revolutions end up in dictatorships (well, unless you count them being brutally crushed.) In fact, in the event of such a revolution in a developed, advanced country like Germany, a dictator would have a much harder time coming to power than in a liberal democracy due to the right of recall at any time and workers delegates only being on an average workers wage. Weimar however was fertile ground for a dictatorship to rise, as are most liberal democracies given the right conditions.
Sorry, but this seem a mix of 'No tru scotsman' and a lot of wishfull thinking, not only civil war tend to radicalize people but the example that you made are very limited in both place and time. The idea that a revolutionary parlamient will be much stronger in the resistance towards a dictatorships due to the fact that the delegates can be recalled and their pay...well seem a little off; sorry but in this case who control the army control the political life, expecially when there is an 'us vs them' situation.
Not considering that a prolonged collaboration between Red Germany and the URSS is not a given, both side will develop their way to communism and will desire be the leader of the movement as communist brootherood or not, both see themselfs as great power and spearhead of the revolution.
In January 1919 WWI is not yet over, there's merely a ceasefire while negotiations proceed. If the German Government falls to a revolution that ceasefire ends and the Allies 1919 Spring offensive will take place. With Germany in revolutionary chaos the result of that offensive isn't hard to predict.
1,855 days?
ONE THROUSAND EIGHT HUNDRED and FIFTY-FIVE DAYS??
OH, HELL NO.
Never do this again.
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