What if the Spartacist Revolt of 1919 Succeeded?

Arctofire

Banned
During the Russian Revolution of 1917, it was the first time in history where the ordinary working class people took power directly into their own hands. It was an extraordinary endeavour, which inspired millions across the globe, and it is one of, if not the singular, greatest event in world history due to it's significance and the possibility of a better world it offered. However, Russia at the time of the Russian Revolution was a very backwards semi feudal country with 80% of it's population peasants. Marx said in the Communist Manifesto that capitalism is a prerequisite for socialism, and had always presumed that the first workers revolution would happen in the advanced capitalist countries with a large and strong proletariat, either France, Germany, or Britain. However this turned out not to be the case for a number of reasons, partly due to Russia's uneven development, it's comparatively weak national capitalist class, and therefore it being the weakest link.

Because of it's uneducated population, it's lack of effective machinery and transportation able to avert famine, and the overwhelming hostility of the other capitalist powers, the Bolshveiks lost support as they were unable to carry out their promises of 'peace, land, bread, and freedom,' due to the ongoing civil war and the scarcity it caused. This meant the revolution degenerated, and power became concentrated in the hands of a few. This was one of the primary reasons why Stalin came to power and the Soviet Union became a totalitarian regime.

But this was almost not the case. After the Great October Socialist Revolution and WW1, there was huge militancy of the working class all across Europe, particularly in Germany and Hungary. In Hungary a short lived Soviet Republic was even created in 1919. However, the big country all of the Bolshveik's were looking at was Germany.

Germany was a powerful, economically developed country, and had a huge socialist tradition. If Germany had turned communist in 1919 and have helped the Russian's in the Russian Civil War, the destruction and devastation of Russia would not have been as severe, and there is a high chance that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia all would have become communist as well due to their large movements and close proximity to the two countries.

All of the objective conditions for a revolution in Germany existed, but huge mistakes were made on the part of the revolutionaries. In 1918 the Kiel mutiny sparked the German Revolution, which was similar to the February revolution in that it overthrew the Kaiser and created a liberal (boishwar) democracy. The biggest obstacle was the betrayal of the SPD (Social Democratic Party.) The SPD had inspired so much hope in socialists across Europe, but on the outbreak of WW1 the majority of it's deputies in the Reichstag voted for war credits. By the German revolution it had decisively rejected revolution and allied itself with the capitalists. The most notable member of the SPD and the first president of the Weimar Republic was Friedrich Ebert.

There was huge workers opposition to Ebert, manifested in the USPD (Independent Social Democratic Party) which was much more radical, but was unable to decisively break with reformism. The Spartacist League, led by Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebnecht, was a revolutionary organization. But it was so absorbed into the USPD that it failed to be a decisive force during the Spartacist Revolt, and the rising ended in catastrophic failure with over 100 workers being murdered at the hands of the arch reactionary Freikorp paramilitaries. Rosa Luxemburg was also hesitant and indecisive when it came to revolutionary strategy, having a false notion of 'left' communism and being somewhat anti Bolshveik, and failing to understand what made the revolution in Russia successful.

But let's say that Rosa Luxemburg in this timeline is more of a leninist, and she breaks with the USPD a couple of months earlier to form the Communist Party of Germany (KPD.) In January 1919 the German Worker's Republic is declared, nationalising the means of production, enacting radical land redistribution, etcetra... similar to the Bolshveik policies laid out in the April Theses. After a brief scuffle with right wing paramilitaries, CDR's (Committees for the Defence of the Revolution) are set up to detect any counter revolutionary activity. The German's help the Bolshevik's in the Russian Civil War and turn the aforementioned countries red. What would this new world look like, and what would be it's impact on a world scale?

In a word, huge. For starters, in our timeline when the British intervened in the Russian Civil War there was huge opposition from the British public, who were exhausted of war, to return to the front, and that is why they couldn't get involved as much as they wanted to. However, in a timeline when Germany, the country they've been fighting for the past 4 years, has ripped up the Treaty of Versailles, and effectively declared war on all capitalist countries, they would have absolutely no option but to attempt to force the British public into en masse returning to the front lines of battle. This would be hugely rejected, and I can imagine Labour winning the 1922 election due to it's anti war stance. The experience of a Labour government and it's wage cuts similar to the Tory government in 1926, as the new government would ultimately still be controlled by capital, would lead to a much more extreme General Strike and a revolutionary situation in 1926. This could either lead to a British revolution, or the imposition of a military backed fascist dictatorship.

After Lenin's death, due to the increased credibility of world revolution, the reduced destruction, and therefore, decreased bureaucracy and more democracy in the Soviet Union, I can imagine Trotsky succeeding Lenin after being elected by the Soviet people. Trotsky would be a much less authoritarian, and much more genuinely revolutionary leader than Stalin was, and would much more effectively lead the Third International, being able to secure the victories of the Chinese Revolution of 1927 and the Spanish Revolution of 1936.

The Spanish Civil War erupts into WWII. I would say that the capitalist side would consist of the US, Britain, France, Italy, Japan, and allies, and the communist side would consist of the Soviet Union, Germany, Spain, China, and allies. Unlike in our timeline, the British cannot afford to hide their support for Franco, and so they go full on supporting the fascists. The Soviet Union led by Trotsky does not sabotage the revolution, and the republican government is overthrown and a workers republic is created. I can imagine the war spreading to Italy and France, and it becoming a world war between socialist revolution and fascist counter revolution. With superior forces and the strong will of the people, I can imagine the communists winning this war. Mussolini's rule in Italy would end in a similar way to how it did in our timeline, with the communist countries assisting the resistance. Eventually the revolution also spreads to France and Britain, and with Germany's blitzkrieg tactics defeating the French like they did in our timeline, and the naval blockade and workers revolution in Britain, all of Europe is turned communist.

I'm unsure about where America fits in here. I think due to much more correct and sound direction from the comintern the Communist Party would be much bigger. But would it be strong enough to resist capitalist reaction and strong anti communist legislation? Could an attempted revolution occur in the strikes of 1945-1946? I think we could see a civil war occurring between the communist north and the fascist south.

I think communism would be much more democratic in this timeline. An educated population and an advanced industrial base in Germany would mean it would not have to use repressive tactics and would be a much more pluralistic, and less authoritarian system

So leave your comments and feel free to expand down below. I'd really love to see what other people have to say about this scenario and help me develop what this alternative timeline would look like all the way down to the present day.
 

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Well, you have to remember that pre-Stalinist communism was internationalist and that Trotsky was a believer in permanent revolution, which would not only have put the USSR at war with the capitalist countries but in an endless war.

Capitalist Europe would have probably been in some sort of low state of war with the Soviets and their allies from about 1917-the late 20s. Around 27-33, you would see the Soviets either pick up due to the Great Depression or themselves falter and a more fascistic administration begin.
 
Well, you have to remember that pre-Stalinist communism was internationalist and that Trotsky was a believer in permanent revolution, which would not only have put the USSR at war with the capitalist countries but in an endless war.

Capitalist Europe would have probably been in some sort of low state of war with the Soviets and their allies from about 1917-the late 20s. Around 27-33, you would see the Soviets either pick up due to the Great Depression or themselves falter and a more fascistic administration begin.

Stalin did believe in an eventual global revolution, what Socialism in One Country actually meant was that they should stop and consolidate their gains for a while.

Anyway, I don't think the Spartacist Rebellion ever had much chance of success. I actually think that either the 1918 unrest that saw the Kaiser's ousting and worker/soldier councils first appear or the unrest of 1923 were better chances for Germany to go Red.
 
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But let's say that Rosa Luxemburg in this timeline is more of a leninist, and she breaks with the USPD a couple of months earlier to form the Communist Party of Germany (KPD.)
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When exactly do you mean? Luxemburg was in and out of prison for most of WW1 - mostly in >Feb '15 to Feb '16 and July '16 to Nov '18 - and while not impossible, it does make it (more) difficult to organize. And that is the crux: the Spartacists have to organize first, that is beat the radical pacifists (USPD) to declaring a new party. It's no guarantee of success... they will still face massive repression following the strike wave of early 1918 but it should set them up well for the revolution later in the year. That is the Spartacists (and not the USPD types) will become the beacon for radicalizing workers.

Best wishes in your endeavours.
 
But let's say that Rosa Luxemburg in this timeline is more of a leninist, and she breaks with the USPD a couple of months earlier to form the Communist Party of Germany (KPD.) In January 1919 the German Worker's Republic is declared, nationalising the means of production, enacting radical land redistribution, etcetra... similar to the Bolshveik policies laid out in the April Theses. After a brief scuffle with right wing paramilitaries, CDR's (Committees for the Defence of the Revolution) are set up to detect any counter revolutionary activity. The German's help the Bolshevik's in the Russian Civil War and turn the aforementioned countries red. What would this new world look like, and what would be it's impact on a world scale?
I think any revolutionary push in Germany would have better been served with some patience and if the revolutionaries had waited another few months/a year or so, the failures of the reformist SPD government would have become more apparent and the revolutionaries more organised. Regardless, you're glossing over a lot here. If there was a more successful revolution in Germany, there would have been a German Civil War with French, British and possibly US and Polish intervention, reactionary White armies and all sorts of internal madness before the nascent workers' republic would have been stable enough to help the Bolsheviks. Its very existence, however, would have galvanised the Bolsheviks in Russia, grown their support amongst the doubters, that much is true.

Well, you have to remember that pre-Stalinist communism was internationalist and that Trotsky was a believer in permanent revolution, which would not only have put the USSR at war with the capitalist countries but in an endless war.

Capitalist Europe would have probably been in some sort of low state of war with the Soviets and their allies from about 1917-the late 20s. Around 27-33, you would see the Soviets either pick up due to the Great Depression or themselves falter and a more fascistic administration begin.
I don't think you understand Trotsky's theory of Permanent Revolution at all. I wrote a post describing the theory here that I can't be bothered to regurgitate: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...eft-party-front.378757/page-198#post-15189686
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't see how it could succeed, given the hostility from the majority of the population. But if it did the Allies march on Berlin and topple them. They would not accept a Communist state in Central Europe. They tried to stop the Bolsheviks, but they would go the distance to stop the German Communists.
 

Arctofire

Banned
I think any revolutionary push in Germany would have better been served with some patience and if the revolutionaries had waited another few months/a year or so, the failures of the reformist SPD government would have become more apparent and the revolutionaries more organised. Regardless, you're glossing over a lot here. If there was a more successful revolution in Germany, there would have been a German Civil War with French, British and possibly US and Polish intervention, reactionary White armies and all sorts of internal madness before the nascent workers' republic would have been stable enough to help the Bolsheviks. Its very existence, however, would have galvanised the Bolsheviks in Russia, grown their support amongst the doubters, that much is true.


I don't think you understand Trotsky's theory of Permanent Revolution at all. I wrote a post describing the theory here that I can't be bothered to regurgitate: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...eft-party-front.378757/page-198#post-15189686

But if say it would have happened in 1923 for example, it would have already have been too late. The Hungarian Soviet Republic would have been crushed, the degeneration of the Russian Revolution assured, and the Soviet's would still have lost the Polish-Soviet war which would mean a communist Germany in this scenario would not be connected to Russia and would be much more isolated. It could potentially be overthrown by outside forces as it had been a good few years since the war and everything by this time was starting to calm down.

In 1919, you really overestimate the ability of the British and French governments to get involved. They would try for sure, but bear in mind that in our timeline there was huge opposition to involvement in the Russian Civil War and lack of will from the population to resume fighting. If it had happened in Germany, they would attempt to bring soldiers back to the front line and essentially resume WW1 which would encounter huge opposition from the populace. The capitalists would be forced to give up or else face revolutions in their own countries.
 
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Maybe the allies do not want to overthrow the Communists, but if they do not take power, they decide to re-arm an army of half a million soldiers and declare that they will not accept any peace treaty that will force them to pay compensation to the Entente, so I think they would act.
 

Arctofire

Banned
Maybe the allies do not want to overthrow the Communists, but if they do not take power, they decide to re-arm an army of half a million soldiers and declare that they will not accept any peace treaty that will force them to pay compensation to the Entente, so I think they would act.

The refusal to pay reparations and throwing the Treaty of Versailles in the trash would certainly be the trigger, but even if so, there would be so much opposition from the population to a return to war that they would have to retreat.
 
I have had doubts about the things I have read. In short it would be what I have seen that people have put serious if weimar rejected versalles would be invaded. but when the communists take power and also reject versalles they are not attacked, because that would be it.
 
In 1919, you really overestimate the ability of the British and French governments to get involved. They would try for sure, but bear in mind that in our timeline there was huge opposition to involvement in the Russian Civil War and lack of will from the population to resume fighting. If it had happened in Germany, they would attempt to bring soldiers back to the front line and essentially resume WW1 which would encounter huge opposition from the populace. The capitalists would be forced to give up or else face revolutions in their own countries.
I honestly think you underestimate their ability to intervene, their governments' willingness to intervene at all costs to prevent the spread of revolution and you overestimate the domestic unrest such intervention would create. In 1919, over 25,000 French soldiers were occupying the Rhineland with thousands of colonial troops involved, there were 20,000 Belgians at Aachan, the US occupation force only really ended in 1923 but consisted of around 9,000 men and the British only finally withdrew from Cologne in 1929. There was already an occupation force that would certainly be utilised to support any White forces against the revolutionaries. I personally hold a lot of stock in the solidarity that the workers in the UK and in France showed in trying to prevent arms being shipped to Whites in Russia or other such tactics - the dockworkers in Liverpool went on strike for that very reason - but it didn't prevent clandestine and open support from the Allied forces towards the Whites in Russia and certainly the French and British would very much desire Germany to remain in the hands of a more compliant liberal republic than a revolutionary workers state.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the intervention would be successful or that the revolution would be doomed to failure, only that it's clear that the capitalist nations of the world would do everything in their power to prevent the spread of revolution. This, of course, would mean a Civil War period as White elements would be armed and supported by the imperialist powers.
 
I honestly think you underestimate their ability to intervene, their governments' willingness to intervene at all costs to prevent the spread of revolution and you overestimate the domestic unrest such intervention would create. In 1919, over 25,000 French soldiers were occupying the Rhineland with thousands of colonial troops involved, there were 20,000 Belgians at Aachan, the US occupation force only really ended in 1923 but consisted of around 9,000 men and the British only finally withdrew from Cologne in 1929. There was already an occupation force that would certainly be utilised to support any White forces against the revolutionaries. I personally hold a lot of stock in the solidarity that the workers in the UK and in France showed in trying to prevent arms being shipped to Whites in Russia or other such tactics - the dockworkers in Liverpool went on strike for that very reason - but it didn't prevent clandestine and open support from the Allied forces towards the Whites in Russia and certainly the French and British would very much desire Germany to remain in the hands of a more compliant liberal republic than a revolutionary workers state.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the intervention would be successful or that the revolution would be doomed to failure, only that it's clear that the capitalist nations of the world would do everything in their power to prevent the spread of revolution. This, of course, would mean a Civil War period as White elements would be armed and supported by the imperialist powers.

There's a vast difference between peacetime occupation of the Rhineland and another full-scale war, whether it be in 1919 or 1923. I don't think the German Reds would be able to hold on to the entirety of OTL Weimar (France will never give up the Rhineland/Saar to Red Germany), but if a core of the country goes over and withstands the initial assault the French/British soldiers and home fronts just will not stand for another protracted war.
 
Assume that for whatever reason the communist are succesfull in taking power in Germany; ok, as you said there were very little desire for a direct intervention by the allies...but as previous stated, the Entente already control the Rhineland and if someone try to start a revolution there the French and the Belgian will suppress it and you will not find many people in France or Belgium that will shead a tear, not just after the war.
So even in case of Red victory, the Saarland will be annexed by France and the Anglo-American-French support for the creation of a Rhenish Republic will be very high (unlike OTL) so a vital part of Germany will be gone and at this you will need to add the damage done by the white-red civil war (and no, it will not be a brief scuffle, sorry), the conquest of Poland and his pacification (good luck) and the help to the Russian to win their war, Red Germany will not be in a good shape.
Regarding Hungary it's a too fragile nation to resist very long and Romania will receive every help possible by the Entente short of men, with Russia and Germany occupied with their own problems (Poland and their own civil war) they are doomed...maybe i'm pessimistic and the Hungarian regime can be saved, but i still expect Romania to gain much more territory than OTL.

Regarding the communist conquering Europe, well the German invasion of France was an extreme success but also due to a lot of luck and many of the officers that had been vital for the German victory OTL will be probably killed or exiled ITTL; invading Italy from the Alps is also called 'suicide by soldiers', that border is the second most easily defended in Europe (and that without even OTL fortification), there tanks and blietzkrieg mean nothing and the reds will fight troops trained and equipped for defensive mountain warfare, frankly it will be a bloodbath...for the attacker.
Finally...if the German Nazi have not been very succesfull in break the Uk, i doubt that the 'mighty' Red Germans will fare better, expecially if they not receive the same easy treatyment of OTL, a communist Germany allied with a communist Russia will be treated as an existential treat from moment one and even the Belgian will be more collaborative and ready to war (just higher quality troops in the fortress mean that OTL attack will fail)
 
If anything rosa Luxembourg was far too Leninist to succeed in German revolution.

Trying to just take power with a cadre of supporters (both left and right wing) failed in numerous cases across Germany, meanwhile the general strike revolutionary tactic employed by the Ruhr revolutionaries was far more succesful and raised and army in the tens of thousands.

Replicating this general strike but without the restoration of ebert is how you are going to get a communist revolution in Germany.
 

Arctofire

Banned
If anything rosa Luxembourg was far too Leninist to succeed in German revolution.

Trying to just take power with a cadre of supporters (both left and right wing) failed in numerous cases across Germany, meanwhile the general strike revolutionary tactic employed by the Ruhr revolutionaries was far more succesful and raised and army in the tens of thousands.

Replicating this general strike but without the restoration of ebert is how you are going to get a communist revolution in Germany.

Hmm, possibility. But by that point the KPD had poor leadership and had split down the middle between the Communist Party of Germany and the Communist Worker's Party of Germany. You also have to remember the centrism of the USPD who again, attempted to negotiate with the government. There was also hesitancy at this stage of an insurrection from the KPD and the Communist Worker's were ultra left and not prepared to work with different groups.

Perhaps if Paul Levi had followed Lenin's advice and led the KPD in a less putchist direction it could have been successful, but I still think it would have been more difficult for Germany due to the already collapsed workers states of central Europe and being surrounded at all sides by hostile states.
 

Arctofire

Banned
I honestly think you underestimate their ability to intervene, their governments' willingness to intervene at all costs to prevent the spread of revolution and you overestimate the domestic unrest such intervention would create. In 1919, over 25,000 French soldiers were occupying the Rhineland with thousands of colonial troops involved, there were 20,000 Belgians at Aachan, the US occupation force only really ended in 1923 but consisted of around 9,000 men and the British only finally withdrew from Cologne in 1929. There was already an occupation force that would certainly be utilised to support any White forces against the revolutionaries. I personally hold a lot of stock in the solidarity that the workers in the UK and in France showed in trying to prevent arms being shipped to Whites in Russia or other such tactics - the dockworkers in Liverpool went on strike for that very reason - but it didn't prevent clandestine and open support from the Allied forces towards the Whites in Russia and certainly the French and British would very much desire Germany to remain in the hands of a more compliant liberal republic than a revolutionary workers state.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the intervention would be successful or that the revolution would be doomed to failure, only that it's clear that the capitalist nations of the world would do everything in their power to prevent the spread of revolution. This, of course, would mean a Civil War period as White elements would be armed and supported by the imperialist powers.

I see your point, but how would such a war play out? The result I want is for Germany to turn red, and I strongly believe that the objective conditions for such a revolution existed, it was simply due to poor leadership that it wasn't successful. Also, how would this affect the Polish-Soviet War which I believe needs to be won?
 
I see your point, but how would such a war play out? The result I want is for Germany to turn red, and I strongly believe that the objective conditions for such a revolution existed, it was simply due to poor leadership that it wasn't successful. Also, how would this affect the Polish-Soviet War which I believe needs to be won?
"Objective conditions"? Man, I remember when I used to Talk like that.
Luxemburg and Liebknecht weren't particularly bad leaders. The problem with Spartakus was that a good part of the USPD Basis went with the electoral process (and why would it not?). The revolutionaries in Berlin were too small a minority.

One could say that the SPD bungled the possibility of a thorough social transformation through allying with the reactionary military. But on the other hand, if the SPD had not been viewed as the "solid centre ground" it would never have achieved it's good 1919 results at that time.
 

Pellaeon

Banned
I have found an interesting timeline with this POD. Admittedly the author is rather partisan.

http://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?t=46083

In sum, Rosa and her allies succeed in turning Germany red-this unleashes a chain of events that turns the whole world communist by 1960 or so.

And basically allows most of the world's problems to be solved.

I don't think that it's plausible but it is interesting.
 
I see your point, but how would such a war play out? The result I want is for Germany to turn red, and I strongly believe that the objective conditions for such a revolution existed, it was simply due to poor leadership that it wasn't successful. Also, how would this affect the Polish-Soviet War which I believe needs to be won?

Ok, you can have Germany become red, but as i said it will be an hard won battle as i doubt that the right wing forces will be so easy to eliminate and the Entente will give them logistical support; plus you can expect that communist Germany will not include all Germany and the occupation zone plus whatever territory the white forces can hold will form a Rhenish Repubblic allied with the capitalist; hell they will support even the Danish taking more German territory than OTL.
 
Ok, you can have Germany become red, but as i said it will be an hard won battle as i doubt that the right wing forces will be so easy to eliminate and the Entente will give them logistical support; plus you can expect that communist Germany will not include all Germany and the occupation zone plus whatever territory the white forces can hold will form a Rhenish Repubblic allied with the capitalist; hell they will support even the Danish taking more German territory than OTL.

Entente forces will probably grab the Kiel Canal while their at it too
 
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