How would Russia and the world at large develop if the Soviet Union never came to be, as the White Army wins the Russian Civil War?
POD: Vladimir Lenin is killed in 1918, removing the glue that held the Bolsheviks together and causing the Red Army to collapse. Thus, the communist dream never becomes a reality. Russia is established as a constitutional monarchy and is firmly a part of both European and global affairs.
Removing the USSR from this timeline drastically changes everything on a level I can't begin to describe in full detail, so I'll list a few points of note:
POD: Vladimir Lenin is killed in 1918, removing the glue that held the Bolsheviks together and causing the Red Army to collapse. Thus, the communist dream never becomes a reality. Russia is established as a constitutional monarchy and is firmly a part of both European and global affairs.
Removing the USSR from this timeline drastically changes everything on a level I can't begin to describe in full detail, so I'll list a few points of note:
- Russian culture develops in a big way throughout the 20th century. Russia was a bastion of art, music, intellectual ideas and culture, which was effectively frozen for 70 years under the Soviets. The Soviet philosophy was against the ideals of religion and culture, as much as they were against individualism. Russian culture today is effectively a century behind without that development. So with that, you can imagine what would happen if Russia continued a natural path.
- Russian population would be way higher. In 1910, Russia had a population of 125,000,000 compared to the US population being 92,000,000. Yes, at one point there were more Russians than Americans. However, that number has barely changed in the century since then: Russia today has a population of only 146,000,000, while the US is 310,000,000 (more than tripling its size). This was due to the USSR: Millions of deaths in famines and in World War II have taken their toll, as with the much lower birth rates that happened in this time. The people who died in these cases both heavily decreased the population, but they never went on to have families of their own. Today, if Russia remained, it would likely have a much larger population and would probably be the 3rd most population nation after China and India, to the tune 350-400 million.
- The Russian population would be spread out more, likely with a lot more out east in Siberia. Today, despite the vast size of Russia, almost 80% of lives in the European portion on the west. Many imagine Siberian Russia as being a frozen wasteland, and with merit, but it's not entirely the case. There are parts of Siberia with temperate climates and good resources, and not to mention the Pacific Coast out in the far east. It's just that the population isn't there for these places to be worth that much. ITL, you can imagine more Russians spreading out, and forming cities throughout the better parts of Siberia, with Vladivostok in particular being much more important than OTL.
- There would likely be Fascist movements in Europe, including Germany. However, it's unlikely that there would be fascists as extreme as the Nazis, and that's a direct result of no Soviet Union. The Nazi regime didn't just emphasize their hatred of Jews, but also of communism. The Germans and the Slavs had an antagonistic relationship throughout history, but when Russia went communist, and made it clear they wanted to destroy western civilization, those fears led to rising national extremism that gave Hitler more of a platform to rise on, as to be fair, those fears of the USSR were warranted. Instead, Fascism would be more akin to Mussolini and Franco than the Nazi Party. Not good to be sure, but also not to the horrific extent of Nazi Germany.
- On a more negative note within Russia: While we emphasize the things the USSR did badly, there are a few negative effects as well. Most notably is that the Russians were known to be very racist even for the time, and would likely kick out Central Asian groups like the Kazakhs, Uzbeks and Tajiks into reservations so as to use the best lands for themselves. Likewise, they were known to be Anti-Semitic, and thus mass deportations would likely occur. Russia as a whole would be more focused on race than ideology, definitely leading to bad things happening ITL.