We most probably would not have a united Brazil withou the monarchy,i woud say that Brazil would have been split in 4 to 5 countries.
What if the Brazilian junta restores the monarchy?
- Thread starter Gukpard
- Start date
We most probably would not have a united Brazil withou the monarchy,i woud say that Brazil would have been split in 4 to 5 countries.
I agree it is massively unlikely, even the royal family said "no" since this is the same kind of people that couped the monarchy, but for the sake of scenario we have to take this minimal chance and use it.
Maybe the move towards the left on the 90s and 2000s could either be even stronger since people would be angry due a continuing right wing government, or lesser since depending how the things goes Brazil could be better off. That being said the royal family would have little to no power apart from being role models, so the power would be on our horribly corrupt congress.
Funnily enought, one of the main supporters of the monarchy at the time was Ayrton Senna, maybe he survives on this scenario due the butterflies?
If they were honest "role models' aka Pedro II it would be better,because horribly corrupt congress is something that i honestly do not remember not having,add the executive branch as well.
I wrote a answer but then noticed that this would turn into a political argument, I don't want this moved to the chat so... please, let's return to the 1964 coup please.
Never was my intention,i just crave for a a good role model for our governments.
Miguel Lopes
Banned
The military regime was popular til roughly the start of the Geisel term, in Médici presidency the public opinion was generally chill. If Geisel or Figueiredo had restored the monarchy it could translate in bad PR for the imperial family nowadays, probably worse. But if Médici had restored it the monarchy institution would not suffer from this cuz the military regime would go down in history as more sucessfull and less controversial.
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Médici and Geisel were very hard liners,i agree that by them it would be too late to have a credible or popular monarchy,may be,as you sad,might be possible at the very beginning of the Medici government,but i believe is doubtful,because the crown would not have had enough time to become popular and act as a moderator for the military regime
Why would the Imperial Family accept such a deal?
I ask this because I don't see any restored Imperial government in Brazil having the power it had according to the 1823 Constitution - the only way they would be allowed to return is by being symbols, used to grant some sort of legitimacy to the deeds of the ones who allowed it to return. But then, what sort of legitimacy would an Imperial Family, restored on these conditions, have?
Assuming a deal is made, and an Emperor gets crowned by the end of the military government, I would expect this Emperor to be at best on shaky ground by late 2010's, if not gone, unless the Imperial Family does some really good PR and manages to charm the Brazilian people.
I ask this because I don't see any restored Imperial government in Brazil having the power it had according to the 1823 Constitution - the only way they would be allowed to return is by being symbols, used to grant some sort of legitimacy to the deeds of the ones who allowed it to return. But then, what sort of legitimacy would an Imperial Family, restored on these conditions, have?
Assuming a deal is made, and an Emperor gets crowned by the end of the military government, I would expect this Emperor to be at best on shaky ground by late 2010's, if not gone, unless the Imperial Family does some really good PR and manages to charm the Brazilian people.
One major problem would be structural. Under the republic, Brazil has had a president/congress government, where the directly elected head of government is also head of state, like the United States. Monarchies are parliamentary governments. with a ceremonial head of state and a head of government chosen by the legislature. There are parliamentary republics, but there also the head of state is a largely ceremonial office.
For Brazil to return to monarchy, it would also have to return to parliamentary government (unless the junta planned a permanent dictatorship). This would be a radical constitutional change; an additional complication that I'd guess would block any such project.
For Brazil to return to monarchy, it would also have to return to parliamentary government (unless the junta planned a permanent dictatorship). This would be a radical constitutional change; an additional complication that I'd guess would block any such project.