What if Sealion had happened

[Jasmine23]

I know this topic has probably been done to death countless times here. But a Youtube channel had just posted about it and predicted something. They suggest that had it been done, it would have been a disaster like Stalingrand. Had the Germans invaded the British Isles, the British's giant navy would have cut them off and the invaders would be fighting a people on their own country and cut off from supplies. Much like a Dunkirk.

But I still think that Alternate History Hub is forgetting that for this to have even been attempted, and the reason it wasnt was because the Germans needed to win the Battle of Britain. That means they have to have achieved total air supremacy and knocked the British Air Force out. Having total air dominance over the British Isles, they could then defeat the British Navy if it tried to intervene.

But the reason this never happened was that Hitler lost his temper and ordered his bombers to attack the Cities instead of the British Air Force and their air fields, and radar towers. So he lost and never could have even tried to launch an invasion.

 

[King Augeas]

Well, that's the simplistic 1950s myth.

In reality, the Luftwaffe was powerless to intervene at night, had no idea how to fight the Battle of Britain and was never really winning it. Of course, the RAF didn't know this at the time and thought they were doing much worse than they actually were, while the Luftwaffe spent the battle in a state of bafflement, unable to understand why they hadn't yet defeated Fighter Command.

 

[Matt]

Germany could have won air superiority only because the RAF withdrew to north England and Scotland.

Germany having air superiority will not prevent the British from throwing in literally everything in order to save the country.

Germany having air superiority does not magically give them a Navy.

Germany having air superiority does not give the Luftwaffe the magically ability to project power night.

Germany having air superiority does not prevent the Royal Navy from sortieing from their bases in Scotland under the cover of darkness and running the Channel.

Germany having air superiority will not stop the entire Home Fleet. Indeed, the Home Fleet will be operating in one of history's rare "regardless of losses" moments.

Germany having air superiority will not make up for their neglect on an effective anti-shipping and maritime strike docturines.


Germany having air superiority will not give them the ability to suddenly do logistics.

Germany having air superiority will not magically give them more than river barges under tow to transport their men and material.

Germany having air superiority will not be prevent a reconstituted RAF from reappearing from the north once the Invasion is on.


I could go on. It's just not happening.

 

[Michele]

Having total air dominance over the British Isles,

The main (and, some say, only) German fighter could reach some place just North of London, before having to go back. It was an interception fighter, having only a short range. Now look up the distance between the Northern outskirts of London and John o'Groats. That's the distance all along the British Isles which the Germans couldn't have total air dominance over, even if the British only had a handful of Gloster Gladiators flying there.

they could then defeat the British Navy if it tried to intervene.

Well, save at night. And, oh, during those long days of bad weather over the Channel, in September, October, November. At night the Luftwaffe couldn't defeat the Royal Navy. Nor in bad weather.

But the reason this never happened was that Hitler lost his temper and ordered his bombers to attack the Cities instead of the British Air Force and their air fields, and radar towers. So he lost and never could have even tried to launch an invasion.

Huh, no. That's part of the legend.

There is a reason if this is the deadest of the dead horses over here.

You might wish to have a look at older threads, or at a new one, "German air superiority over the Channel". That, at least, stretching things, is something that might conceivably be achieved for short spells without the Luftwaffe riding on Alien Space Bats, and there are a few informative posts in the thread.

 

[SsgtC]

Not again...

 

[lionhead]

perhaps read the second sticky thread.

 

[wcv215]

Having total air dominance over the British Isles, they could then defeat the British Navy if it tried to intervene.

These do not follow.

Anyhoo, you are correct this has been done to death. Short answer, Sealion was impossible.

Long answer, Sealion was a ridiculously stupid plan. To the point that even if Hitler was nearly as stupid as he's portrayed by the Wehrboos he STILL likely wouldn't have ordered it, because very, very few people are dumb enough to flush ten divisions down the toilet for literally no reason whatsoever.

You're talking about a plan which required the use of TOWED river barges across the English Channel. Not even self-powered barges mind, ones literally dragged by tug boats.

What part of this stupid plan sounds like it won't be a colossal disaster?

 

[RodentRevolution]

Having total air dominance over the British Isles, they could then defeat the British Navy if it tried to intervene.

Except that in May 1941 the Luftwaffe enjoyed air dominance over Crete against a Royal Navy whose nearest bases were at Alexandria or Cyprus each about 500 km distant from the battle zone. There they were unable to prevent a significantly smaller RN force from operating in Cretan coastal waters, preventing landings by sea and then successfully evacuating Allied troops from the island. True the Royal Navy took significant losses but so did the Luftwaffe.

In the English Channel the British have bases they can rearm, refuel and conduct emergency repairs in right on top of the battle zone as well as bases more distant to which they can withdraw units requiring more extensive repair work out of range of German air interdiction. In addition the Germans will be attempting to send much larger forces by sea and further will need to supply them over an extended period as the British forces in the UK enjoy much larger stocks of war materials than funnily enough the forces in Crete and an extensive network of fortifications built up over centuries and heavily augmented with modern works since the fall of France.

An interesting point about the Battle of Crete was that the Luftwaffe was largely successful in its air interdiction of British supply runs to the island. This ought to at least raise the spectre of Bomber and Coastal command being able to do some damage to German cross channel efforts in addition to the operations of the Navy.

 

[The Red]

Crete was a pretty close run thing, and even then its success can be ascribed more to Allied incompetence than German skill. In an alternate world where Mercury failed it would likely be dismissed as a crazy idea that was destined to end in defeat.

I mean, there’s an argument IOTL that the Allies would have abandoned Crete anyway or at least not used the island for anything major and as such Mercury was pointless waste of elite German troops and resources.

 

[DaveBC]

You're right, this has been done a lot here. At this point you can probably count the number of serious regular posters who think Sea Lion would have worked on the fingers of two hands.

There is serious skepticism that Germany could have won the air war even if they had not switched to targeting cities. They did not understand the effectiveness of integrated air defense, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can count the numbers on both sides and see that Germany was never on the cusp of destroying the RAF.

There is near-universal agreement also that if Germany attempted Sea Lion, regardless of the air situation, the RN would have shredded the invasion fleet. The only question is how many losses the Luftwaffe can inflict as the RN does so, but if their country is being invaded, the destroyers will go into the Channel, period. Even if it lost most of its destroyers, the RN would accept that loss proudly as the cost of maintaining a free country. I don't think the price would be that high, but the point is, they would pay it.

The question is whether bombers have an easier time hitting destroyers than destroyers do hitting barges, and when you put it that way, the answer is obvious.

 

[DaveBC]

Crete was a pretty close run thing, and even then its success can be ascribed more to Allied incompetence than German skill. In an alternate world where Mercury failed it would likely be dismissed as a crazy idea that was destined to end in defeat.

I don't understand why Crete would be an argument in favor of Sea Lion. The RN repeatedly and successfully blocked amphibious landing attempts. Crete fell because of paratroopers.

Anyone who thinks Britain can be invaded by unsupported paratroopers, raise their hands.

 

[The Red]

I don't understand why Crete would be an argument in favor of Sea Lion. The RN repeatedly and successfully blocked amphibious landing attempts. Crete fell because of paratroopers.

The RN blocked the initial landing attempt but if memory serves they failed to block subsequent landings.

An initial German landing in southern England could have succeeded. Keeping that force reliably supplied is a different story. The RN’s ability to project is exponentially greater in the English Channel than in the Eastern Med. The difference with Crete is that in Southern England the British had large forces in close proximity and a decent amount of armour as well. The Germans can’t establish a small perimeter and hold it for more than a few days.

 

[DaveBC]

The RN blocked the initial landing attempt but if memory serves they failed to block subsequent landings.

An initial German landing in southern England could have succeeded. Keeping that force reliably supplied is a different story. The RN’s ability to project is exponentially greater in the English Channel than in the Eastern Med. The difference with Crete is that in Southern England the British had large forces in close proximity and a decent amount of armour as well. The Germans can’t establish a small perimeter and hold it for more than a few days.

They "failed to block" the third landing in the sense that they withdrew to focus on evacuating the island, and let the Germans land on an undefended beach.

I assume there will be no similar decision over England.

 

[The Red]

They "failed to block" the third landing in the sense that they withdrew to focus on evacuating the island, and let the Germans land on an undefended beach.

I assume there will be no similar decision over England.

Probably not, Mercury was a sideshow, Sea Lion would be the main event.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

I don't understand why Crete would be an argument in favor of Sea Lion. The RN repeatedly and successfully blocked amphibious landing attempts. Crete fell because of paratroopers.

Anyone who thinks Britain can be invaded by unsupported paratroopers, raise their hands.

Hmm, I think Britain could have been invaded by paratroops in Q3 1940. Just, not successfully invaded.

Though I did read a Hammond Innes novel (Attack Alarm?) where the Germans tried to pull off such an invasion. Landing at airfields that 5th columnists and SAS-type special forces (Brandenburgers?) had infiltrated earlier and somehow neutralised the defenders of. Enabling paras and other forces to be landed there. Obviously "Our Hero + loyal girl"(tm) foiled this dastardly plot. Luckily, AFAIK, the Germans lacked the resources to pull anything like this off in June-July 1940. While I can't see it succeeding, IF the paras & air landing forces could look as if they can hold out and establish a bridgehead it is just barely possible that Britain could be spooked into seeking a ceasefire and peace. Though you'd need Churchill not to be PM.

 

[Ian Henderson]

Germany having air superiority will not prevent the British from throwing in literally everything in order to save the country.

Germany having air superiority does not magically give them a Navy.

Germany having air superiority does not give the Luftwaffe the magically ability to project power night.

Germany having air superiority...

I don't think you intended it, but that magnificent rant reminded of Gil Scott-Heron, and I read it in his voice.

 

[Jasmine23]

Okay thank you everyone. I learned something today. The German Air Force was no match for the RAF at all. It wasnt their tactics that was flawed and failed. It was everything and they were no match. They couild never have defeated the British

 

[DaveBC]

Okay thank you everyone. I learned something today. The German Air Force was no match for the RAF at all. It wasnt their tactics that was flawed and failed. It was everything and they were no match. They couild never have defeated the British

Well I wouldn't go into absolutes too far. The air war was competitive but Britain was not at as severe a disadvantage as people used to think. You can come up with ways -- take away radar and integrated air defense, for instance -- that would have at the very least caused the RAF to suffer severely.

However, at the end of the day, no matter what the propaganda at the time, an actual invasion would be decided by the balance of naval forces, and as of mid-1940, that was an area in which the Royal Navy outnumbered the German navy by a healthy margin of 10 to 1 or so.

 

[Matt]

Well I wouldn't go into absolutes too far. The air war was competitive but Britain was not at as severe a disadvantage as people used to think. You can come up with ways -- take away radar and integrated air defense, for instance -- that would have at the very least caused the RAF to suffer severely.

However, at the end of the day, no matter what the propaganda at the time, an actual invasion would be decided by the balance of naval forces, and as of mid-1940, that was an area in which the Royal Navy outnumbered the German navy by a healthy margin of 10 to 1 or so.

Right. A German occupation and complete subjection of the British Isles is not going to happen. But you can change enough things by removing some personalities, or having the Germans try different roads that may lead to a negotiated peace.

 

[wcv215]

They couild never have defeated the British

I wouldn't go that far, in the air at least, but it was unlikely with the knowledge of hindsight.

The thing to remember is that, as with a lot of WWII there were a lot of factors that made it SEEM like Germany was winning when they kinda weren't when you look at the overall picture. For example in the OTL BoB the British only knew their losses, and overestimated the numbers of LW. When we look at the production numbers for say 1940 a comparison between the British and the Germans is kinda staggering. That is to say, the British were outproducing the Germans in literally EVERYTHING other than small arms. There really wasn't any way people from that time could have known that, and honestly the idea is kind of absurd on paper. The German economy was significantly larger after all. The problem was in the inefficiencies of the Nazi regime, things like an over-reliance on craftsmen and over-engineered war machines for example, that really hurt their potential. And the problem with fixing these is that its hard to get the Nazis to even acknowledge reality, let alone get them to fix problems.

Now there were some things they could do to make the air war more competitive, actually trying to fight it over the Channel might be one idea (though not really sure if that would work honestly). One of the big problems in the BoB OTL was that the Luftwaffe was taking higher losses in both planes and (more importantly) PILOTS. A pilot shot down over the UK was gone for the LW, whereas for the Brits he would likely be picked up and flying again the next day. IF the LW can fight over the Channel then that ceases to be true. Would that be enough to reverse the outcome...honestly I doubt it. But it would be something to push the outcome much closer.

Another big problem is that due to the success of carriers its assumed that airpower automatically trumps seapower, but that isn't always the case. In this case, the LW didn't really have an established doctrine for fighting at sea, and weren't going to develop one quickly under Goering (who wanted to keep his precious planes as far from the KM as possible.)