Basically Sebastian I of Portugal wanted to conquer Morocco and Christianize it. He invaded under the pretense of supporting the deposed Moroccan sultan, but he failed, and died at the battle of the Three Kings. Sebastian dying without an heir lead to the Iberian Union. So what would have happened if Portugal won? Would the Ottomans take it back and fully control Morocco? Would Portugal be able to convert the country?
What if Portugal conquered Morocco?
- Thread starter North Western
- Start date
Osman Aga
Banned
If Sebastian won the pretender he backed would be Sultan. If the Ottoman backed pretender is still alive then he will likely be supported once Algiers can go for a new campaign.
Portugal would not be able to conquer Morocco, not in the 16th century at least, let alone convert it. It is too big for Portugal to subdue the Kingdom apart of some Coastal towns. Besides, the Algerians had no issue taking Fez earlier from the Moroccans. If Portugal attempted to conquer it rather than backing the Saadi pretender then the Moroccans will be more favorable of Ahmad Al Mansur on the throne or even a conquest by the Algerians.
Portugal would not be able to conquer Morocco, not in the 16th century at least, let alone convert it. It is too big for Portugal to subdue the Kingdom apart of some Coastal towns. Besides, the Algerians had no issue taking Fez earlier from the Moroccans. If Portugal attempted to conquer it rather than backing the Saadi pretender then the Moroccans will be more favorable of Ahmad Al Mansur on the throne or even a conquest by the Algerians.
This is actually a scenario I've never seen discussed, despite it being such an 'obvious' WI! Portugal is right next door to Morocco, it's something I've seen happen on EU4 a tonne of times, and although I've seen scenarios of French Morocco, Spanish Morocco, and even German Morocco, I've never seen Portuguese Morocco discussed as a WI.
I'm hoping this'll be a decent discussion, because even if the OP's specific POD isn't feasible, the idea of a Portuguese Morocco at some point in history should be interesting!
Northstar
I'm hoping this'll be a decent discussion, because even if the OP's specific POD isn't feasible, the idea of a Portuguese Morocco at some point in history should be interesting!
Northstar
Osman Aga
Banned
There you have it: EU4
Games are not realistic. I could conquer most of the HRE as friggin Ulm.
The PoD will not result in a conquest. It isn't realistic either with Portugal also expanding their hold in Asia, Africa and South America at the same time doing a full conquest of a country with almost the same population (1.5 million), with a horrendous geography and people usually hostile to Iberian Catholics. There are other ways to do it but this ain't it.
It's a bit late of a POD, the Ottomans already conquered the Mameluks, established their bases in Algeria and Tunisia and gained local suzerainity and already got a good situation going on in Hungary and the East.
But if we say that the Portuguese win, then I imagine Portuguese influence would remain strong, I don't think it's obvious the Ottomans or Algerians would intervene or they'd win after the Portuguese backed pretended assumes power, given the fact that winning this battle is quite decisive. For one there would be no Iberian union and the disaster it caused to the Portuguese colonial empire, it would also prevent the Moroccan conquest of Songhai.
But if we say that the Portuguese win, then I imagine Portuguese influence would remain strong, I don't think it's obvious the Ottomans or Algerians would intervene or they'd win after the Portuguese backed pretended assumes power, given the fact that winning this battle is quite decisive. For one there would be no Iberian union and the disaster it caused to the Portuguese colonial empire, it would also prevent the Moroccan conquest of Songhai.
Well I do state that "even if the OP's specific PoD isn't feasible;" I'm sure there are other, later, PoDs where this might be more feasible. Although, that being said, given that the Spanish/French were struggling to subdue Morocco well into the 1900s, maybe Portugal will never be strong enough to do it alone.
But thanks for the reminder that games aren't realistic. 👀 😂 🙄
Northstar
I am guessing it would be called or semi-officially part of the Kingdom of Algarves. It is the southernmost part of Portugal, and they sometimes referred to it being both in Europe and Africa. I certainly can’t see them using a name like Morocco, given they want to avoid having Moors if they can. I imagine it will be difficult penetrating the interior, and there would always be Muslim tribes in the mountains or deserts. Less pirate probably, and Western Europeans could at least be happy about the greater ease of policing the Straits of Gibraltar to keep Corsairs from getting through. If there is the money for it. I see Portugal having budget issues here.
That said, even without a full conquest, that's still a massive PoD. You would get a very friendly Morocco AND a surviving Portugal.
I'm researching this exact thing for my podcast right now, and the death of Sebastian is, to me, intimately tied to the rise of the VoC.
By keeping him alive, you're preventing the Union of Crowns, and thus the big incentive for the Dutch to go to Asia. Portugal was a long time ally, they would probably keep working together, strengthening the Estado da India instead of weakening it even more.
Since Morocco is now an ally, that even means you'll have less fidalgos dying stupidly on Moroccan fields. I'm not sure you'd see Morocco really benefitting from the Portuguese empire, but it'd be interesting to see.
You might just end up with factories in major Moroccan ports and likewise, strong ties to Morocco in Dutch and Portuguese ports
I'm researching this exact thing for my podcast right now, and the death of Sebastian is, to me, intimately tied to the rise of the VoC.
By keeping him alive, you're preventing the Union of Crowns, and thus the big incentive for the Dutch to go to Asia. Portugal was a long time ally, they would probably keep working together, strengthening the Estado da India instead of weakening it even more.
Since Morocco is now an ally, that even means you'll have less fidalgos dying stupidly on Moroccan fields. I'm not sure you'd see Morocco really benefitting from the Portuguese empire, but it'd be interesting to see.
You might just end up with factories in major Moroccan ports and likewise, strong ties to Morocco in Dutch and Portuguese ports
Osman Aga
Banned
My suggestion:
- Iberian union by anyone but the Habsburgs
- Conquest of the Rif region at most until 1800
- Somewhat better treatment of Muslims in Morocco than it was in Iberia
- Partial colonisation until 1800
- More conquest and colonization post-1800
- Morocco has a sizable Christian population (mostly colonists, partly converts)
I believe East of Ceuta the Rif region was more in the Spanish sphere.
The Portuguese would have a hard time let alone convert it . Honestly people underestimate the difficulty it will be and how much a shitty place to colonize the Maghreb would be for the European because of the extremely tribal nature , hostile population and geography . Most likely change with a Portuguese victory at the battle of the Three kings is Portuguese keeping the coast and making their puppet King of the interior up until a random guy pretending to be the Madhi or some ambitious and talented tribal leader who would want create a new dynasty like it happened so much during Morocco history .
The "conquering Morocco" thing is a gross exaggeration caused by people overplaying Sebastian's hubris for the sake of getting a more entertaining mythical narrative. As others have already pointed out in this thread, Sebastian's goal was to place a friendly Sultan on the Moroccan throne in order to protect (and possibly expand) Portuguese interests in the region, which were mostly coastal forts and trading ports, and to counter the growing Ottoman influence.
I don't think we have reason to believe that Sebastian or anyone close to him actually ever envisioned an outright conquest, or that such a thing would actually be possible (they'd have to beat the Moroccan, dynasties, the Ottomans and subdue the Berber tribes which control vast swathes of the interior and have significant "desert power").
As for what a Portuguese victory at Alcácer-Quibir would realistically mean... it's hard to say. Portugal would have a friendly Morocco and more ports in North Africa, but on the hand a major war with the Ottomans is inevitable sooner or later...
I must confess that I'm chronically skeptical of Portuguese endeavours in North Africa, since historically most of them either ended in disaster or failed to deliver on the promise of actually large incomes to the Portuguese Crown. I'm generally of the opinion that the Empire's could be much better spent just about anywhere.
Now, that said, no Iberian Union would obviously be a huge boon for Portugal in the long run...
I don't think we have reason to believe that Sebastian or anyone close to him actually ever envisioned an outright conquest, or that such a thing would actually be possible (they'd have to beat the Moroccan, dynasties, the Ottomans and subdue the Berber tribes which control vast swathes of the interior and have significant "desert power").
As for what a Portuguese victory at Alcácer-Quibir would realistically mean... it's hard to say. Portugal would have a friendly Morocco and more ports in North Africa, but on the hand a major war with the Ottomans is inevitable sooner or later...
I must confess that I'm chronically skeptical of Portuguese endeavours in North Africa, since historically most of them either ended in disaster or failed to deliver on the promise of actually large incomes to the Portuguese Crown. I'm generally of the opinion that the Empire's could be much better spent just about anywhere.
Now, that said, no Iberian Union would obviously be a huge boon for Portugal in the long run...
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At times it really feels like Morocco was a red dot and the fidalgos a bunch of particularly violent cats. There was nothing of value to gain there, they just couldn't help themselves
My understanding of it is that it was mostly a matter of self-aggrandisement. I don't think anyone had any delusions that they'd gain anything other than a new port that would almost immediately become useless because arab traders would move elsewhere, but they wanted to distinguish themselves in a "crusade" so that they could get new titles and stuff.
Yeah exactly. What was the value of Morocco? Desert trade is already short circuited by Portuguese factories in Guinea, it's mostly shit land and it's full of angry Muslims.
If I'm Portuguese and I want to go smash some Muslims I'd be better off going to India. Damn, even Mozambique is closer to home. You really wanna help? Go to Ethiopia. Morocco serves absolutely no purpose there...
Lusitania
Donor
Alright I don’t understand what the problem is. Like is just Europa Universalis. No?????
But if king Sebastiao had defeated the ottoman backed leader then his own ally be on the throne of morocco. This Portuguese coastal cities would be protected and could be strengthened. A friendly Moroccan government is the best option and over time we would see two different Morocco apear the Muslim interior and Portuguese coastal.
How long it last and wether it could expand or loose territory be dependent on strength of both Portugal and Morocco.
One thing is no Iberian union so a weaker Spain.
But if king Sebastiao had defeated the ottoman backed leader then his own ally be on the throne of morocco. This Portuguese coastal cities would be protected and could be strengthened. A friendly Moroccan government is the best option and over time we would see two different Morocco apear the Muslim interior and Portuguese coastal.
How long it last and wether it could expand or loose territory be dependent on strength of both Portugal and Morocco.
One thing is no Iberian union so a weaker Spain.
Okay let me come with some thoughts. This do trap the Barbary Pirates somewhat in the Mediterranean. Next if Portugal conquer Morocco, they have to set up/keep some kind of religious tolerance policies, likely mixed with tax and inheritance policies which favor Christians. I think the full conquest will take centuries and I think that some kind of Enlightening is unavoidable. So we will likely see Jewish and Muslim minorities survive. In time as Christians comes in majority in Morocco the center of Portugal will be forced to move to Morocco, with the large earthquarke in 1755, we could see the capital move to a Morrocan coastal city.
I think it's more plausible the capital would move to Brazil than to Morocco honestly.
Lusitania
Donor
If Brazil stays part of Portuguese empire that only possible under constitutional government. The capital can be in Lisbon but center of power and biggest representation comes from Brazil, future Africa and even Portuguese India and indies.
A monarchy that spends part of their year in Rio could serve as linking the people and nobles of Brazil to the monarchy.
A monarchy that spends part of their year in Rio could serve as linking the people and nobles of Brazil to the monarchy.