What if: Lincoln had not pushed the Fort Sumter issue

[Khan Doomy]

I am a bit in a rekindled phase of reading on the ACW (Throes of Democracy, Team of Rivals, and a miserable Misean tract by Charles Adams) and a question popped out for me.

What if Lincoln decided to hold off on calling for volunteers when Fort Sumter surrendered. He does not recognize the CSA, but also opts for the revenue cutters option. I assume the next crisis would be the triggering of Article IV, Section 4 provisions of the US Constitutions by requests of either Governors or Legislatures in Border States riven by Unionists vs. Secessionist violent conflict (over slavery let us remember). I assume Lincoln would do his duty and then call for Volunteers to send troops to quell the secessionists in those border states.What I wonder is

1) How would Virginian react to that? Would they still secede?

2) How would Davis react? Would the CSA send troops in as well, brining about a general war?

 

[Belisarius II]

It's really too late for that. The only border States were Kentucky which was so in the balance Union forces stayed out it, and Missouri where fighting broke out, and needed to be secured. Maryland had to be occupied to protect Washington so, there was no way to avoid that. To answer your question Virginia wasn't going to fight against the rest of the South, so as fighting broke out, she'd be forced to make a stand. The whole reason Davis ordered the attack on Fort Sumter was to force the issue, so everyone would have to pick a side. At this point Lincoln had to fight or divide the Union.

 

[David T]

If you want to have a scenario where Sumter falls into Confederate hands without an immediate war, a more plausible way to do it would simply be to have Lincoln abandon Sumter, as it is conceivable he would have done if he had learned in time that Pickens had been succesfully reinforced. I don't think that's very likely but it's more likely than for him to attempt to resupply Sumter and then act as if the firing on Sumter had never happened.

 

[mrmandias]

I was going to post what @David T said. If Lincoln wanted to avoid escalating over Sumter, he would not have tried to supply the fort in the first place. Everything going as OTL but then Lincoln not calling for volunteers represents a massive volte-face and loss of nerve on his part.

 

[Belisarius II]

If you want to have a scenario where Sumter falls into Confederate hands without an immediate war, a more plausible way to do it would simply be to have Lincoln abandon Sumter, as it is conceivable he would have done if he had learned in time that Pickens had been succesfully reinforced. I don't think that's very likely but it's more likely than for him to attempt to resupply Sumter and then act as if the firing on Sumter had never happened.

Lincoln already knew the fort couldn't hold. If the Confederates had simple waited a few days, the fort would've surrendered when it ran out of food. Then the Union would've just faced a humiliation rather than a slap in the face.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

If you want someone to abandon Fort Sumter, have it happen while Buchanan is in office.

 

[Khan Doomy]

Thank you all, and my apologies for the prompt. Let me rephrase it. Assume Fort Sumter is out of he picture (Buchanan or Lincoln evacuate it). The rest of the prompt is the same.

 

[mrmandias]

Is there another flash point? I am of the opinion that Lincoln was looking for some way to crystallize the issue without him having to be the aggressor. may be Ft. Pickens?

The longer without a ft. sumter or equivalent event, the less likely the civil war is to break out, or if it does break out the more likely the Union is to lose.

 

[David T]

Lincoln already knew the fort couldn't hold. If the Confederates had simple waited a few days, the fort would've surrendered when it ran out of food. Then the Union would've just faced a humiliation rather than a slap in the face.

Of course Lincoln knew Sumter was running out of food! That was why he decided to reprovision it!

 

[Mikestone8]

Is there another flash point? I am of the opinion that Lincoln was looking for some way to crystallize the issue without him having to be the aggressor. may be Ft. Pickens?

The longer without a ft. sumter or equivalent event, the less likely the civil war is to break out, or if it does break out the more likely the Union is to lose.

There's still Fort Pickens. Of course that is further offshore, so the Confederates have to start their with a filed attack rather than a successful one.

 

[David T]

There's still Fort Pickens. Of course that is further offshore, so the Confederates have to start their with a filed attack rather than a successful one.

Pickens remained in Federal hands throughout the war. And it is unlikely Lincoln could (even if he wanted to) start shoooting elsewhere over a *failed* Confederate assault.

As I have said, there is a *possibility* that if Lincoln had realized that Pickens had been succesfully reinforced in time, he would have agreed to a withdrawal from Sumter. I indicated in an old soc.histotry.what-if post that I doubted he would have done so, but if he had, the immediate cause for war would have been removed, until one side or the other takes further action--the Union collecting revenues offshore being the step most discussed. Some Upper South "conditional unionists"insisted that Lincoln wiirhdraw troops from both Sumter and Pickens and must explicitly say he was doing so in the interests of peace, not simply because Sumter was indefensible. I am pretty sure Lincoln would not go *that* far (maybe a President Seward would?) but I doubt that his failure to go that far would by itself lead to further secessions.

 

[Khan Doomy]

Is there another flash point? I am of the opinion that Lincoln was looking for some way to crystallize the issue without him having to be the aggressor. may be Ft. Pickens?

The longer without a ft. sumter or equivalent event, the less likely the civil war is to break out, or if it does break out the more likely the Union is to lose.

The violence in a Border State triggering Article IV, Section 4 action by Lincoln.

 

[mrmandias]

A failed attack on Ft. Pickens or border state violence make for a much less successful outbreak of the war on the Union side. Lincoln would be faced with much less enthusiasm and support than OTL.

 

[Gloss]

A failed attack on Ft. Pickens or border state violence make for a much less successful outbreak of the war on the Union side. Lincoln would be faced with much less enthusiasm and support than OTL.

Why would a failed assault be a worse casus belli?

 

[mrmandias]

Less visceral.

Harder to explain why you need troops and money when apparently the existing forces are already doing fine

 

[Khan Doomy]

Less visceral.

Harder to explain why you need troops and money when apparently the existing forces are already doing fine

I am not sure. Notice how Bloody Kansas was instrumental in hardening attitudes towards dissolving the Union and being willing to fight over it. And also think back to the prompt. I am not asking if Lincoln goes to war with the Secessionists. I can see him requesting volunteers in reaction to a request from a Border State triggering Article IV, Section 4 in order to secure it. Fewer than in history, but still requesting volunteers, and sending troops into said Border State.

What I wonder is a) does Virginia still secede in such a scenario b) how does Davis react? Does he sent troops into the Border State as well?

 

[mrmandias]

I see what you are saying.

Would he get the request though?

Would need to be a Unionist legislature

 

[Khan Doomy]

It can be either the Legislature or the Executive of the State involved as per the constitution . Most probable cases are Kentucky (Secessionist Governor and State Guard vs. Unionist Legislature and Home Guard ) or Missouri (Secessionist Governor vs. moderate Unionist Legislature)

 

[mrmandias]

I think it has to be the legislature
on application of the legislature, or of the executive (when the legislature cannot be convened)
so Kentucky.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I think it has to be the legislature
on application of the legislature, or of the executive (when the legislature cannot be convened)
so Kentucky.

See one of the issues with the US Constitution is that it does not clarify who decides "the legislature cannot be convened". I bet considering Lincoln's view on Presidential powers that he would argue it is the Federal Executive that does that. But sure, Kentucky probably is the likeliest trigger. So let us say the Legislature of Kentucky requests the Federal Goverment to implement Article IV, Section 4. Lincoln goes and requests a said number of volunteers to be raised , probably in neighboring states and Kentucky and to Federalize them. The Governor requests help from the CSA. How does Davis react, and how does Virginia?