What If Japan won in Midway and the Nazis at Stalingrad ?

[TheBrazilSpirit]

I will NOT thalk about how they won,but rather the consequences

What if the Italians/Romanians could hold their ground against the Soviet counter attack(with heavy losses) and the Fallschirmjäger captured the Baku oil fields(with severe damage though)

Meanwhile,the Japanese attack goes well,thanks to the changing of the naval codes(and Yamamoto does't die ITTL) and they lost only 1 carrier(compared to 4 in OTL)while US lost all three carriers

Could this be a game changer(if not for how many months these alterations will prolong the war?)

 

[Deleted member 1487]

You're getting ASB with the Axis allies holding on the Don AND the capture of Baku. It...just can't happen realistically. As to the Midway situation, there that was possible and would probably set back the US offensive by 6 months at most compared to OTL, which then creates a situation where the US sits on the defensive there and keeps on with Europe. Perhaps the combination of needing to wait for new warships to get completed for the Pacific War to advance, while a significant Soviet defeat in 1942 might force an earlier invasion of France due to the extra shipping being available in late 1942/early 1943 without a Pacific offensive ongoing.

With the Stalingrad situation you'd probably be better off saying that the Germans got real lucky and took Stalingrad off the march and Stalin goes nuts trying the counterattack and burns up his reserves on the flanks of Stalingrad, so that Operation Uranus cannot be launched in November. Taking Baku is just not going to happen logistically, perhaps Grozny could be taken, but that's about it. Not really a game changer overall, but certainly would really screw the Soviets pretty badly and may force the Wallies to invade France in 1943.

 

[troosvelt_68]

There is virtually no chance of a Japanese victory absent a Nazi victory and even then it would be a negotiated peace at best.

US industry was simply too dominant for the Japanese to win.

For example had the US lost all their carriers at Midway they could have replaced them in 6-9 months tops.

Japan never was able to replace the ones they lost IOTL

 

[Gudestein]

I'd go for a Stalingrad on the march (uncle willie did a recent TL on this), followed by misguided counterattacks, and German advance to reach the Don at the Caspian Sea. Then they could reach Baku in 43? and Depending on the bloodletting maybe something more (Leningrad?).
Now, if the US loses heavily in Midway it may butterfly torch? Is this likely? If it does, ITTL SU is pretty, if it doesn't, Japan is virtually unopposed for a while longer.
Now, the US Can still beat Japan, but Germany may quickly turn into an insurmountable Challenge (without nuclear weapons). Guess focus may change to Japan first if things continue to go shitty in 1943, at least on land.
Japans only option longterm Will however be if the US loses resolve (as planned). That I guess would require the Fall of Roosevelt as a failed CIC. And this require the US to keep losing into 1944. I dont Think the Midway pod would last longer than into 1943.

 

[Insider]

Depending on how they follow that this could mean an Axis victory.

 

[hipper]

There is virtually no chance of a Japanese victory absent a Nazi victory and even then it would be a negotiated peace at best.

US industry was simply too dominant for the Japanese to win.

For example had the US lost all their carriers at Midway they could have replaced them in 6-9 months tops.

Japan never was able to replace the ones they lost IOTL

The third Essex class carrier commissions in August 1943 so it takes a year for the US to replace the carriers.

 

[Gudestein]

Depending on how they follow that this could mean an Axis victory.

I'd say persuading the US not to defeat Japan is a talk order.
And the US would eventually gain nuclear weapons.

 

[naraic]

Could this be a game changer(if not for how many months these alterations will prolong the war?)

Five months onto the war in Europe, ended by nuclear bombs delivered on key Germany cities in August September and October. A fully allied occupied Germany with Poland (pre war borders and East prussia) being occupied by Russia.

Six months onto the war in the Pacific (Soviets won't be in a position to intervene in china) so three to four nukes may be needed on Japan.

 

[Perkeo]

I'd say persuading the US not to defeat Japan is a talk order.
And the US would eventually gain nuclear weapons.

Maybe the difference would be nukes actally deciding the war rather than finishing off a Japan that was already suing for peace. But even then "deciding" won't mean that there is any doubt how a fight to the last man standing would end.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

Meanwhile,the Japanese attack goes well,thanks to the changing of the naval codes(and Yamamoto does't die ITTL) and they lost only 1 carrier(compared to 4 in OTL)while US lost all three carriers

Yamamoto died in 1943, not during the Battle of Midway.

 

[lionhead]

I always find it interesting how everyone seems to think the Japanese winning big at Midway would just mean a delay for the US and not an advancement for the Japanese. Sure the Americans can still outproduce the Japanese eventually, but the Japanese had big plans for Midway and the operations afterwards. With midway defenseless the Japanese occupy. And with midway occupied, Hawaii is threathened.

Yamamoto died in 1943, not during the Battle of Midway.

but he died because the Americans knew where he'd be. Without the naval codes cracked he won't be dead, i think thats what the OP is aiming for.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

I always find it interesting how everyone seems to think the Japanese winning big at Midway would just mean a delay for the US and not an advancement for the Japanese. Sure the Americans can still outproduce the Japanese eventually, but the Japanese had big plans for Midway and the operations afterwards. With midway defenseless the Japanese occupy. And with midway occupied, Hawaii is threathened.



but he died because the Americans knew where he'd be. Without the naval codes cracked he won't be dead, i think thats what the OP is aiming for.

The United States with all their capabilities would still be able to crack the code the Japanese where using in due time.

 

[naraic]

I always find it interesting how everyone seems to think the Japanese winning big at Midway would just mean a delay for the US and not an advancement for the Japanese. Sure the Americans can still outproduce the Japanese eventually, but the Japanese had big plans for Midway and the operations afterwards. With midway defenseless the Japanese occupy. And with midway occupied, Hawaii is threathened.

Midway didn't have the size to support enough airplanes to realistically threaten Hawaii from Midway a toll. If Japan attempt Hawaii after Midway they need to throw Kido Butai against land based air on Hawaii which is just a meatgrinder and will the Japanese air wings atritted away.

 

[lionhead]

The United States with all their capabilities would still be able to crack the code the Japanese where using in due time.

Not if they kept changing it or upgraded it.

Midway didn't have the size to support enough airplanes to realistically threaten Hawaii from Midway a toll. If Japan attempt Hawaii after Midway they need to throw Kido Butai against land based air on Hawaii which is just a meatgrinder and will the Japanese air wings atritted away.

If Midway is occupied the Japanese naval range increases whilst the American naval range decreases. I'm not saying the Japanese would threathen Hawaii directly from midway, they would just be able to use Midway as a staging area for any sorts of things.

Besides, if Midway goes well the attack on Alaska goes well too and the Americans have a lot more problems to rid themselves of than just the threat on Hawaii. Meanwhile Japan goes all out on the Solomons and further south, making things ever more difficult for America and its allies(like Australia).

Not actually sure how long the Japanese can keep the offensive up though. Their planes, men and ships were already worn out. They have to stop at some point and catch their breath, but they might feel like they can't afford it(which is true). Instead of owning it they always seem to be catching up to the momentum.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

Not if they kept changing it or upgraded it.
.

You assume that the Japanese Naval codes are unbreakable, but you forget that every time the Japanese changed the code, the United States and the British thanks to their huge resource crack the codes, just like they mange to crack German Enigma code.

 

[lionhead]

You assume that the Japanese Naval codes are unbreakable, but you forget that every time the Japanese changed the code, the United States and the British thanks to their huge resource crack the codes, just like they mange to crack German Enigma code.

Well i'm indulging the idea. So sue me.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

Well i'm indulging the idea. So sue me.

Not going to sue you, just given my opinion.

 

[NORGCO]

Not if they kept changing it or upgraded it.



If Midway is occupied the Japanese naval range increases whilst the American naval range decreases. I'm not saying the Japanese would threathen Hawaii directly from midway, they would just be able to use Midway as a staging area for any sorts of things.

Besides, if Midway goes well the attack on Alaska goes well too and the Americans have a lot more problems to rid themselves of than just the threat on Hawaii. Meanwhile Japan goes all out on the Solomons and further south, making things ever more difficult for America and its allies(like Australia).

Not actually sure how long the Japanese can keep the offensive up though. Their planes, men and ships were already worn out. They have to stop at some point and catch their breath, but they might feel like they can't afford it(which is true). Instead of owning it they always seem to be catching up to the momentum.

It has been argued out on these forums before that the Japanese simply did not have the doctrine or equipment to take Midway away from the garrison it had at the time of the battle, and that the IJN was 'very wary' of getting close enough to serious coast defences to do a proper job of softening up before landings.

Second if the Japanese actually DO take Midway, they have to hold the blasted place. Taking it means supplying the garrison, with a string of American held island leading to a major American naval base. Submarines from the base will be preying on the supply ships, while airbases can be built on islands closer to Midway so that it - and the freighters that were already in short supply - can be attacked.

The comparison made might be with Guadalcanal, with USN forces attacking Midway in place of Japanese forces coming 'down the slot' from Rabaul. A long slow grinding battle of attrition follows in both cases, with the US production capacity - of equipment and properly trained crews - meaning the Japanese can't win, can't break even and can't get out of the game (except by abandoning Midway). Abandoning Midway would of course be a public admission of defeat and a very hard thing for Japanese officers and politicians to face.

Would there be the resources left to do Guadalcanal and the other things that happened OTL mid-1942 to late 1943?

Or would the struggle for Midway soak up all the available ships, planes, and men?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

The US is just gonna keep hitting the Japanese at Midway grinding down the army and naval forces before the Essex spam rolls out and crushes the Japanese fleet. After that, the US offensive tears the Japanese a new one. The US isn't gonna sue for peace, not after Pearl harbour.

 

[Whiteshore]

If Germany wins at Stalingrad, another set of purges will probably occur in the USSR, for starters.