What If Japan won in Midway and the Nazis at Stalingrad ?

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so lets say carl sorge doesn't report back to stalin that the capture of stalingrad (crossing the volga) will mean that japan declares war on russia. so a slightly less spirited defence, germans win.
assuming sorge was right, the japanese declare war on russia, with all the complications that brings.

from the carl sorge wiki:
Another important item allegedly reported by Sorge may have affected the Battle of Stalingrad. Sorge reported that Japan would attack the Soviet Union from the East as soon as the German army captured any city on the Volga
 
Now, if the US loses heavily in Midway it may butterfly torch? Is this likely? If it does, ITTL SU is pretty, if it doesn't, Japan is virtually unopposed for a while longer.

A U.D. defeat at Midway would not butterfly TORCH, but it would butterfly WATCHTOWER.
 
I always find it interesting how everyone seems to think the Japanese winning big at Midway would just mean a delay for the US and not an advancement for the Japanese. Sure the Americans can still outproduce the Japanese eventually, but the Japanese had big plans for Midway and the operations afterwards. With midway defenseless the Japanese occupy. And with midway occupied, Hawaii is threathened.

It's because of logistics.

It was extremely difficult for Japan to take Midway even if it had knocked out all three U.S. carriers as it was (it was basically Tarawa) - logistically, it really could not sustain anything beyond that.

Likewise in the South Pacific. Operation FS could not have gotten past Espiritu Santu or, if they moved fast enough, Port Moresby (neither of which could they hold long term). Zero chance of taking New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa, or the New Hebrides generally.
 
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That for sure, Torch I'm not so sure about.

The strategy was still GERMANY FIRST. Stalin was breathing down their necks, and FDR was keenly committed to it as a way of offering the Soviets something (and, also, to have American arms doing something in the ETO). A drubbing at Midway, on all evidence of what we know about FDR's stance and that of the Combined Chiefs, will not change that. They might rearrange some assets, sending Ranger out to CINCPac along with Wasp and replacing it in TORCH with a British deck.

Japan, of course, will still be crushed by 1945.
 
so lets say carl sorge doesn't report back to stalin that the capture of stalingrad (crossing the volga) will mean that japan declares war on russia. so a slightly less spirited defence, germans win.
assuming sorge was right, the japanese declare war on russia, with all the complications that brings.

from the carl sorge wiki:

Of course, even if Stalin believed this report, he had his own reasons not to allow the USSR's largest city named after himself to fall under the German heel.
 
If Midway is occupied the Japanese naval range increases whilst the American naval range decreases.

Not really. Midway isn't big or secure enough for the Japanese to use as a major staging area. And, what exactly was it past Midway that the Americans were trying to get to? They can still reach Australia without issue, and that's the farthest they really need to go.

I'm not saying the Japanese would threathen Hawaii directly from midway, they would just be able to use Midway as a staging area for any sorts of things.

The Japanese can't threaten Hawaii at ALL from Midway.

Although...

If Japan changed its codes and the US hasn't broken the new ones yet why are they even fighting a battle at Midway?
 
I will NOT thalk about how they won,but rather the consequences

What if the Italians/Romanians could hold their ground against the Soviet counter attack(with heavy losses) and the Fallschirmjäger captured the Baku oil fields(with severe damage though)

Meanwhile,the Japanese attack goes well,thanks to the changing of the naval codes(and Yamamoto does't die ITTL) and they lost only 1 carrier(compared to 4 in OTL)while US lost all three carriers

Could this be a game changer(if not for how many months these alterations will prolong the war?)

1. Stalingrad: As others have said, a German conquest of the Baku fields in 1942 is flirting with Alien Space Bats. It's just beyond their reach, even for an airdrop. So I really am reluctant to address that possibility. But Stalingrad is certainly achievable, with a reworking of the deployments in Case Blue - as others have said, it could probably have been seized on the march. That will not allow the Germans to penetrate any farther into the Caucasus (not in 1942, at any rate), so the real question is what Stalin's reaction would be. Would he go insane and decimate his officer corps again, as Calbear posits in the Anglo-America Nazi War timeline? Would he engage in fruitless and expensive counterattacks to retake it or cut it off?

I think the probabilities favor a more modest version of that scenario. Stalin probably does exact some limited retribution with more 5 minute trials (and 9mm sentences) for certain generals. He will have every incentive to try to retake "his" city. German 6th Army redeployments to the flanks might well beat off these counterattacks, though perhaps at high cost (German logistics will still be stretched to the breaking point). Certainly it would make a mess, at the very least, of Soviet counteroffensives planned for the winter and spring, perhaps, buys the Germans as much as one more campaigning season.

The Allies would likely respond by stepping up Lend-Lease and TORCH to keep Stalin in the war. (One more reason why TORCH cannot be butterflied away by a Midway defeat - in both Roosevelt's and Churchill's minds, keeping Stalin in the war is much more important than any harm Japan can do in the South Pacific in the short term.) They might even renew offers to stage assets into the Caucasus; Stalin might be desperate enough to accept them.

2. Midway: This has been discussed so many times here...maybe the way to approach this is what I think you intend: how does the combination of defeats at Midway and Stalingrad play out? Well, as I say: it's going to put more focus on saving the Soviets, because that is by far the greater strategic vulnerability for the Allies.

As suggested in the appendix of Shattered Sword by Tully and Parshall, the heavy odds are that, after the destruction of Fletcher's carrier forces, an attempt is made by Kondo's force to invade Midway Atoll, and is bloodily repulsed at the waterline, with significant losses to Nagumo's air wings (already sure to be depleted in battle with Fletcher and Spruance), too. Yamamoto could probably scrounge up another similar size ground force from the Carolines and try again in a few weeks, but he probably would be content with having smashed American carrier power in the Pacific (for a little while). Midway would be difficult to take, and difficult to supply; it was too small to support a really robust air presence, and too far away from Oahu to be of much value to do anything to it.

Much more likely is the probability that Yamamoto sends the Kido Butai back to Japan to rebuild the air wings (along with that of CARDIV 5), and, sometime in August, tries to implement the first phase of Operation FS in the South Pacific, while CINPAC is still reeling and the Essex-class carriers are still yet to make their presence felt. A rapid move might net him Port Moresby before MacArthur's buildup; and Espiritu Santu could conceivably be taken. The danger for Yamamoto would then be to greatly underestimate American assets in the New Hebrides, and in his hubris, try for New Caledonia. Which would be an utter disaster for him, even just counting forces present there on June 4, 1942. He would not only lose most of his ground force trying, but quite probably much of his carrier force as well. It's just a bridge too far.

Meanwhile, King would kill any idea of WATCHTOWER, and concentrate assets instead on building up on Fiji and the New Hebrides while he waits to reap the great Vinson Act production bonanza building on East Coast slipways. The great American counteroffensive would likely then begin in the Central Pacific (Gilberts) in early-mid-1943 rather than in late 1942 in the Solomons. The Solomons are probably largely island-hopped in this scenario.

Either way, Japan is crushed by 1945. It just happens a little differently.
 
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The strategy was still GERMANY FIRST. Stalin was breathing down their necks, and FDR was keenly committed to it as a way of offering the Soviets something (and, also, to have American arms doing something in the ETO). A drubbing at Midway, on all evidence of what we know about FDR's stance and that of the Combined Chiefs, will not change that. They might rearrange some assets, sending Ranger out to CINCPac along with Wasp and replacing it in TORCH with a British deck.

Japan, of course, will still be crushed by 1945.
Torch already cancelled the arctic convoys. Which British decks were idle during Torch?
 
Torch already cancelled the arctic convoys. Which British decks were idle during Torch?

The hard reality is that there isn't much available. The only real option would be accelerating Illustrious's refit, or simply dispensing with some of it. Even so, Illustrious cannot replace all of Ranger's combat power.

If it were up to me, I would leave Ranger right where she is, taking part in TG 34.9. And I think there's a fair chance that this would still happen - however uneasy Admiral King would be about it. Because keeping Stalin in the game is more important by far than whatever Ranger could be doing in the South Pacific. Perhaps after TORCH is wrapped up (or at least the amphibious parts), Ranger could be released for Pacific duty. Perhaps. Any urgent ETO needs would still trump the Pacific.

There might well be other butterflies, here. Acceleration of US carrier production, for example. We looked at this last year on a Midway defeat thread, and there's arguably one more slip way big enough to switch over to Essex production. You might also see an expansion of the Independence conversions from 9 up to, say, 12. That does not help Nimitz (or whoever might replace him) now, but it could put more decks in his hands in 1943.

Otherwise, though, the U.S. must remain on defense in the Pacific for the balance of 1942, and everything we know about Roosevelt suggests he would do just that. At worst, it costs the Allies Port Moresby and Etafe/Espiritu Santu, and even that's very iffy. (If Yamamoto waits until September to try Operation MO again, he likely would be repulsed.) Meanwhile, Halsey is given Saratoga and Wasp and left to parry as best he can any IJN thrusts into the New Hebrides. He'll have a fair amount of land-based air to assist in that task - and Yamamoto will have none.
 
P.S. I know the P.O.D. did not want to explore HOW these Allied defeats happened; but I think it does matter very much just how the Germans win at Stalingrad, and how badly the Soviets are beaten trying to retrieve it. Because if Stalin is in bad enough shape, the pressure will really be on Churchill and Roosevelt to do something.

In OTL, Marshall became so frustrated with Churchill's resistance to a cross-Channel attack that he proposed switching resources to the Pacific - which Roosevelt promptly nixed. Helping the Soviets was too important, he insisted. With the Soviets reeling behind the Volga in the summer of 1942, the very least the Claridge Conference in July 1942 could come up with would be TORCH; but there would be a harder look at ROUNDUP/SLEDGEHAMMER, or accelerating OVERLORD to 1943. The Allies, of course, cannot do both, because TORCH would tie down the forces needed for any operation into France in late 1942 or even spring 1943.

Because the difficulties with ROUNDUP were so formidable, and evident as such to the Combined Chiefs' staff, I still think this would get nixed (I think Calbear's AANW timeline is on the money on this analysis); TORCH, on the other hand, would at least offer some modest diversion NOW, rather than in 1943, when Stalin might well be out of the war, in their view. There would be a harder look at pushing convoys more aggressively to Murmansk, but resources were limited at that point - unless Churchill is willing to risk more Home Fleet assets. Which he might do if Stalin started making noises about making a separate peace.

Would all of this butterfly away HUSKY and Italian operations, or intensify them? Hard to say. Much would depend on how the Eastern Front unfolded in 1943.
 
Maybe, lets just assume ( since thats what we do on this site )... that japan had the combat equipment, skill, wherewithal and Logistics to invade and occupy both Midway and the Hawaiian Islands how far would they have gotten after that? Could they have taken the west coast of the United States? And if so, how far inland in could they have gotten? Assuming, once again, they completly concentrated on North America instead of China...
 
And maybe, let's assume again, that Germany develop the A-bomb first before America... they completed their heavy water experiments and they shared that technology with Japan. Then Japan drops a nuclear bomb on the u.s. fleet and vaporizes most of their carriers and surface ships, how long would it take America to rebound from that catastrophe? Im thinking its something, they maybe dont come back from...Ever. of course that would totally depend on how many ships the Japanese were able to ambush and vaporize with their one nuclear weapon.
 
Maybe, lets just assume ( since thats what we do on this site )... that japan had the combat equipment, skill, wherewithal and Logistics to invade and occupy both Midway and the Hawaiian Islands how far would they have gotten after that? Could they have taken the west coast of the United States? And if so, how far inland in could they have gotten? Assuming, once again, they completly concentrated on North America instead of China...
Word of advice mate, since you're new here.
Don't necro threads, if you want you can start a new thread on the topic.
 
Posted this in another Japanese victory at Midway thread.

The US built 24 Essex class carriers and scrapped several more being built. 19,000 B-24, 12,000 F6F & 12,000 F4U and around 9,000 B-29s. 2,700 Liberty ships, around 60,000 Sherman’s, etc. This not taking into account BB, P-51, B-17, DD, CG, a crap ton of light carriers. America could deploy 1,000 plane raids from carriers. They lost the second the first bomb dropped on Pearl. All that remained was figuring out how long their defeat would take.

The US public hated the “Japs.” They were in it for complete victory. Yamamoto told them that they would run wild for 6 months, but after....
 
The USA still has Saratoga in the Pacific to provide marginal carrier support, backed by land based air. (She does seem to be a torpedo magnet, though.)

Japan taking Midway means that their supply lines are susceptible to submarine attack, and the turnaround time for the boats is much shorter than trips into the western Pacific.

Midway to Kaui'i is less than 1,200 miles. Could B-17's reach with a reduced bomb load? Escorts can't make the trip, but could Saratoga launch escorts on a mission to kill the fighter cover?
 
Even with Midway - June 42 and
Stalingrad - Nov Dec 42

Allies - keep defensive in Pac

No guadalcanal, japan completes airfield

Midway is constantly threatened and harassed by us bombers.

Torch still occurs in fall of 42 and second el alamine occurs. The race to Tunisia intensifies.

Also, Brits and Americans race to reinforce Iran and Iraq oil fields.

Early 43 - allies secure Tunisa and Iran/Iraq.

Bomber bases are set up in Iran to ensure that Baku oil fields do not deliver one single drop of oil to Germany.

As more troops are funneled to Asia, less for Pac in 43.

When carriers come on line, us can only do one advance and not two like OTL with central and SW Pacific. They go for central Pac.

In Europe in 43 allies do med.

What would eastern front look like in 43? Germans would go for either Moscow or reduce Leningrad. Soviets would also mount an offensive. Perhaps Soviets with allied recapture caucus but lose Leningrad and murmansk.

44 - Americans break japanese navy capture Gilbert's and marshals.

Allies also expand s med with landings in s France and Dalmatia.

Soviets hold Moscow

Germanscstill have Ukraine and Baltic areas.

American B29's start to pound Germany

45 - Americans capture Marianas. Game over in Pac as B29's arrive in force.

WAllies and Soviets liberate Ukraine and Balkans. Germans hold advance in Southern France.

Atomic bombs start dropping. US can make 3 per month. First 2 dropped on Japan and 1 on Konigsberg, E Prussia.

Other Japan cities and east German cities are obliterated.

Allies win in May 46 in Europe with us/Brits capturing most east Europe including Poland, Czech, Hungary, Yugoslavia and all of Germany.

July 46 in Pac
Russians invade Manchuria
Americans land on Okinawa and IwoJima as well as Bus on Korea to set up more bomber bases.

Between fire bombs and nuclear weapons, Japan is ruined more than it.
 
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