What happens to Serbia and Montenegro after a Central Powers victory?

[Helmuth48]

There seems to be a fairly broad consensus that Austria-Hungary will not annex (northern) Serbia and Montenegro, but will turn them into puppet states or protectorates. Probably combined with a permanent Austro-Hungarian military presence to maintain this situation. So basically a combination of voting options 2 and 3.

Yet during the 'Joint Council of Ministers of January 7, 1916' there were quite a few leaders in favor of annexation. For some more balance in the discussion, here are some translated quotes:

Stephan Burián (Foreign Minister):

Although he wanted to give the appearance of steering a middle course on the issue, Burián wrote in his diary on the same day that he believed in the necessity of the complete annexation of Serbia. But even total annexation, according to Burián, would be a burden that we could take upon ourselves only in recognition of its unavoidable necessity. Serbian agitation would be a problem even then. The decisive question is whether it would be easier to solve "the Serbian question if only 66 percent of all Serbs belong to the monarchy and 34 percent live in an independent state, than if 100 percent of Serbs become subject to us. At the moment, he said, it was not yet time to take a decision on which of the two methods mentioned here should be followed."

Karl Stürgkh (Prime Minister):

"A Serbia endowed with the prerogatives of an independent state, a head of state, international representations, would again and again become the focus of Great Serbian agitation. [...] Beside the great difficulties of the Polish problem, the admission of 1½ million more Serbs into the monarchy seems to him child's play."

Ernest von Koerber (Finance Minister):

Now, he said, there was an opportunity to put an end to the untenable conditions caused by the Greater Serbian idea. Therefore, independent Serbia, as a planting ground of the Greater Serbian movement, must disappear from the map. It would not matter for the peace negotiations, because the resistance of the Entente, especially Russia, to leaving a diminished, dependent Serbia would be the same.

Alexander von Krobatin (Minister of War):

"If Serbia is not wiped off the map, in 10 to 20 years the monarchy would be in a situation similar to that of 1914. Serbia, he said, could not be compared to Belgium, it was a miserable country; in his opinion, all the part of Serbia still left behind should be annexed to Hungary and divided into 4 counties. The one and a half million Serbs involved could not possibly be dangerous to such a vital state as Hungary."

Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf (Chief of the General Staff):

"doubts, however, the possibility of an independent Albania, and since, in his opinion, the whole of northern Albania must be united with the monarchy, as well as Montenegro and Serbia, he would cede southern Albania to Greece, and also a small strip to Bulgaria, if by this means the active participation of Greece could be obtained."

"I cannot believe in the crime that, after the heavy and bloody sacrifices which the war demanded, it [note: the monarchy] should again be put in this danger. I can hardly believe that the narrow, short-sighted, and petty reasons which are asserted against annexation should prevail."

In conclusion, the Council of Ministers showed:

"that the Austrian government representatives and military leaders were more and more resolutely in favor of annexations; on the other hand, that as a result they came more and more into opposition with the Hungarian leading circles, and only in view of the state of war did no open crisis arise."

 

[Halagaz]

If Germany is the main influence over the settlement: Serbia is unified with Montenegro and northern parts of Albania in a puppet state under a member of the Montenegrin dynasty.

If Austria-Hungary gets to decide: ehh, this is harder to predict as there were two main schools of thought within the Austro-Hungarian government. One plan involved creating two independent Serbian and Montenegrin puppet states, but annexing a northern border strip in Serbia (including the Serbian capital) and the Montenegrin coastline to Austria-Hungary, ethnically cleansing these strips in part or in full, and colonizing them with Germans and Hungarians. The other plan, championed by Conrad von Hoetzendorf, was wholesale annexation of both Serbia and Montenegro as colonies of Austria-Hungariy.

In either case, Bulgaria gets to annex Macedonia and large chunks of eastern Serbia. Albania not so much - most of the Central Powers' statesmen were surprisingly hostile to the idea of a large Albania and even proposed carving it up to satisfy various other calculations.

 

[Wendell]

If Germany is the main influence over the settlement: Serbia is unified with Montenegro and northern parts of Albania in a puppet state under a member of the Montenegrin dynasty.

If Austria-Hungary gets to decide: ehh, this is harder to predict as there were two main schools of thought within the Austro-Hungarian government. One plan involved creating two independent Serbian and Montenegrin puppet states, but annexing a northern border strip in Serbia (including the Serbian capital) and the Montenegrin coastline to Austria-Hungary, ethnically cleansing these strips in part or in full, and colonizing them with Germans and Hungarians. The other plan, championed by Conrad von Hoetzendorf, was wholesale annexation of both Serbia and Montenegro as colonies of Austria-Hungariy.

In either case, Bulgaria gets to annex Macedonia and large chunks of eastern Serbia. Albania not so much - most of the Central Powers' statesmen were surprisingly hostile to the idea of a large Albania and even proposed carving it up to satisfy various other calculations.

How would they have divided Albania?

 

[Halagaz]

How would they have divided Albania?

The northern third was to be annexed to the Serbian-Montenegrin puppet state, the southern third to Greece, the central third to be an independent puppet state and a bargaining chip between the Central Powers. That was the German (and Ottoman) idea, at least, while the Austro-Hungarians had several different plans they never fully decided between.

 

[Karl the Writer]

The largest copper mine in Europe was at Bor in Serbia not too far over the border. The Central Powers suffered from a shortage of copper. Germany would insist that Austria-Hungary take Bor. As for Montenegro there are good military reasons why Austria-Hungary would annex Mt. Lovcen.

That or they could have the Romanian solution wherein the CP keeps control of the mine for X number of years while the territory remains de jure part of Serbia. Same outcome.

 

[Nivek]

The northern third was to be annexed to the Serbian-Montenegrin puppet state, the southern third to Greece, the central third to be an independent puppet state and a bargaining chip between the Central Powers. That was the German (and Ottoman) idea, at least, while the Austro-Hungarians had several different plans they never fully decided between.

Well after Greece joined the entete,that plan died

 

[prester.john208]

Well after Greece joined the entete,that plan died

They hoped to made up for it by getting the territory around the straits. Greece was rewarded with territorial acquisitions, specifically Western Thrace (Treaty of Neuilly-sur-Seine) and Eastern Thrace and the Smyrna area (Treaty of Sèvres). Greek gains were largely undone by the subsequent Greco-Turkish War of 1919 to 1922.

 

[Nivek]

They hoped to made up for it by getting the territory around the straits. Greece was rewarded with territorial acquisitions, specifically Western Thrace (Treaty of Neuilly-sur-Seine) and Eastern Thrace and the Smyrna area (Treaty of Sèvres). Greek gains were largely undone by the subsequent Greco-Turkish War of 1919 to 1922.

Yeah something might not happen ittl so Greece might get nothing

 

[Fatt Shea]

The northern third was to be annexed to the Serbian-Montenegrin puppet state, the southern third to Greece, the central third to be an independent puppet state and a bargaining chip between the Central Powers. That was the German (and Ottoman) idea, at least, while the Austro-Hungarians had several different plans they never fully decided between.

What were the Austrians plans?

 

[Halagaz]

Well after Greece joined the entete,that plan died

Surprisingly, it didn't. In discussions after June 1917 (when Greece fully joined the Entente) elements in the German and A-H governments still wanted to annex southern Albania to Greece.

 

[Wendell]

Surprisingly, it didn't. In discussions after June 1917 (when Greece fully joined the Entente) elements in the German and A-H governments still wanted to annex southern Albania to Greece.

Presumably to allow for Bulgarian expansion into prewar Greece?

 

[Crazy Boris]

Ofc Austria wanted more land, why do you think they started the war in the first place?

As retaliation against Serbia’s refusal to persecute the people who had just brutally murdered the heir to their empire and his wife in cold blood?

They’re not gonna want to annex Serbia, that’s just going to turn the Balkans into even more of a powder keg than it already was. Their goal will just be to knock Serbia down a peg and get assurance that Yugoslav nationalists operating out of Serbia are going to be dealt with before anything like this can happen again.

Montenegro and Albania would barely even be afterthoughts, when you get right down to it, the core of this is between Vienna and Belgrade, If it wasn’t for the web of alliances I don’t even think any other countries would have gotten involved.

 

[Halagaz]

What were the Austrians plans?

For Albania? It varied from department to department and from one phase of the war to another. The General Staff wanted to annex as much of Albania as possible to A-H, but was also prepared to make it an independent puppet state (without, for the most part, enlarging it with Serbian or Montenegrin territory). The Hungarian faction around Tisza wanted Albania to be an independent puppet state of A-H and as large as possible.

However, both factions were prepared to offer southern Albania to Greece, and occasionally to trade off other parts of it in various deals.

Presumably to allow for Bulgarian expansion into prewar Greece?

Yeah, among other calculations. In general, it seems that they hoped to keep Greece quiet - if not exactly friendly - in the post war order, so they could focus on what they saw as their main enemies and areas of subjugation. I also think Germany hoped that the democratic government in Greece could be deposed at some point, and the pro-German King Constantine returned to full power.

 

[NoMommsen]

Well after Greece joined the entete,that plan died

Surprisingly, it didn't. In discussions after June 1917 (when Greece fully joined the Entente) elements in the German and A-H governments still wanted to annex southern Albania to Greece.

... perhaps less 'surprising' if one asks which Greeece actually joined the Entente:

-rightfull unbellicose - regarding WW 1 - king Constantine goverment or​

-renegade national chauvinistic megali idea pursuing (but servile anglophil) Venizelos​

which both existed parallel to each other and therewith 'offering' CP politicians to think of alternatives

​

 

[prester.john208]

For Albania? It varied from department to department and from one phase of the war to another. The General Staff wanted to annex as much of Albania as possible to A-H, but was also prepared to make it an independent puppet state (without, for the most part, enlarging it with Serbian or Montenegrin territory). The Hungarian faction around Tisza wanted Albania to be an independent puppet state of A-H and as large as possible.

However, both factions were prepared to offer southern Albania to Greece, and occasionally to trade off other parts of it in various deals.



Yeah, among other calculations. In general, it seems that they hoped to keep Greece quiet - if not exactly friendly - in the post war order, so they could focus on what they saw as their main enemies and areas of subjugation. I also think Germany hoped that the democratic government in Greece could be deposed at some point, and the pro-German King Constantine returned to full power.

Venizelos supported an alliance with the Entente, not only believing that Britain and France would win, but also that it was the only choice for Greece, because the combination of the strong Anglo-French naval control over the Mediterranean and the geographical distribution of the Greek population, could have ill effects in the case of a naval blockade, as he remarked: One cannot kick against geography!

On the other hand, Constantine favored the Central Powers and wanted Greece to remain neutral. He was influenced both by his belief in the military superiority of Germany and also by his German wife, Queen Sophia, and his pro-German court. He therefore strove to secure a neutrality, which would be favorable to Germany and Austria.

Thanks to entering the war in 1918, Greece only lost 5,000 dead.

 

[Helmuth48]

I recently took a closer look at the territorial expansion of Serbia and Montenegro during the 19th century, up to 1913. I have shown this expansion on the map below.

I have also indicated the Austrian border from 1718 to 1739. After the Austro-Turkish War of 1716-1718, the Treaty of Passarowitz was concluded. On this, the Habsburgs founded the 'Kingdom of Serbia' as a crown land. However, after the Austro-Turkish War of 1737-1739, this territory was already lost again. As a result, many Serbs fled across the Danube or Sava to settle within the borders of the Habsburg Empire (second Great Serbian Migration).

Finally, I have indicated the border between the Austro-Hungarian and Bulgarian zones of occupation, as defined in the secret Bulgarian-German agreement of 1915. However, as mentioned earlier, the Bulgarians did not adhere to it, occupying most of Kosovo as well.

Sources:
Map borders Serbia until 1833
Map borders Serbia until 1992
Map borders Montenegro until 1913

 

[Evil Crusader]

It's not really about past territories or expansions, rather about contemporary needs. I still think some semblance of Serbian independence would remain, as a goodwill gesture towards the Entente who after all came to the aid of Serbia.

 

[Helmuth48]

It's not really about past territories or expansions, rather about contemporary needs. I still think some semblance of Serbian independence would remain, as a goodwill gesture towards the Entente who after all came to the aid of Serbia.

I agree that the 1718 border was no longer significant for Austria during the First World War. At least I haven't read anything about that yet.
However, once Russia lost the war, there is no need to show goodwill to Russia. Which only increases the chances of Austrian annexations....

 

[Pax_Nihil]

I agree that the 1718 border was no longer significant for Austria during the First World War. At least I haven't read anything about that yet.
However, once Russia lost the war, there is no need to show goodwill to Russia. Which only increases the chances of Austrian annexations....

And the Serbs are just like "okay sure we're not the fighting type" and submit to annexation?

 

[prester.john208]

And the Serbs are just like "okay sure we're not the fighting type" and submit to annexation?

The Austrians didn't want more Slavs in the Empire. Letting Bulgaria keep a large chunk of Serbia and Macedonia might fit their requirements better.