What are the chances the WAllies accept Nazi hegemony if the USSR falls?

[Captain Homicide]

If anything, the Allies probably would have been even more determined to defeat the Nazis if the Soviets were conquered.

Why?

I believe the blood, time and treasure the WAllies would have to pay with no Red Army to kill millions of German soldiers and no Eastern Front to soak up massive German resources would give them pause even if they continued fighting.

The US/UK leadership were still human beings that cared about the loss of human life unlike Stalin and the Politburo.

 

[oofo]

Also as pointed out Stukas were bad at sea attacks, and they won't have gained much experience in them in Russia

What exactly makes you believe that Stukas were bad at attacking naval ships?
Both StG 2 and StG 77 were trained in attacking naval vessels. In 1941 the Allies lost numerous ships in the Mediterranean to these two wings. See the Salamat disaster, British losses during Operation Excess, and the battle of Crete. When properly trained for it, Stukas were more than capable of sea attacks. StG 2 and StG 3 also sank several ships in the Mediterranean during this period, although I am not sure if they were explicitly trained for this.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

Why?

I believe the blood, time and treasure the WAllies would have to pay with no Red Army to kill millions of German soldiers and no Eastern Front to soak up massive German resources would give them pause even if they continued fighting.

The US/UK leadership were still human beings that cared about the loss of human life unlike Stalin and the Politburo.

Because the danger posed by a Nazi Germany unchecked on the European continent would have been even graver, though reasonable chances for Allied success would have remained. Even if there would have been a far worse loss of life on the part of the Americans and British, German defeat of the USSR likely would have created far more pressure among both civilian and military circles to apply the maximum possible effort in Europe. This was basically what the historical "Victory Program" was predicated on, which emphasized taking the battle to the Nazis before the latter had time to create an 'invincible economic bloc.'

Faced with this threat, the Pacific theater likely would have been 'put on hold' to prevent Germany from consolidating.

 

[MattII]

Why?

I believe the blood, time and treasure the WAllies would have to pay with no Red Army to kill millions of German soldiers and no Eastern Front to soak up massive German resources would give them pause even if they continued fighting.

The US/UK leadership were still human beings that cared about the loss of human life unlike Stalin and the Politburo.

Because this is Hitler, who's broken every treaty he ever signed, and who would happily wipe out entire populations if he didn't like them.

 

[TDM]

Why?

I believe the blood, time and treasure the WAllies would have to pay with no Red Army to kill millions of German soldiers and no Eastern Front to soak up massive German resources would give them pause even if they continued fighting.

The US/UK leadership were still human beings that cared about the loss of human life unlike Stalin and the Politburo.

Because leaving Hitler and co around is just going to lead to a lot more blood and loss of life, it already had

You also seem to forget Britain lost 2-3x as many fighting in the last war, British and American air raids killed what a million plus German civilians, in WW1 we were about to starve Germany to death

This idea the the walies are scared of death and killing when it comes to stopping Hitler or just in general 'not doing what needs to be done' just because we don't post Russian or German loss numbers is really one of the most pernicious themes of these kind of threads, especially when it's seemingly only ever used as an edgy excuse to let the Germans win for a more exciting ATL.

The Wallies didn't post Germen or Russian losses because we were less committed to the fight it's because we had better or just different options for fighting, and we worked hard to get them and worked hard to leverage them.


Also Stalin didn't send a 20m Russian to die because he relished sending people to die*, it was fight and die or just die, because Germany victorious is going depopulate Russia! (also frankly this also buys into the "Russia just zerg rushed their way to Berlin", which is a much over stated meme, yes they had a numbers advantage but it wasn't the only reason why they beat the Germans even if this gets in the way of the "German quality drowned in Soviet masses" narrative)

Plus as pointed out no the wallies are not going to land millions of troops and meat grind their way across Western Europe just so that this inherent weakness you think you see will be exposed. They're going to bomb the Reich and then invade and fight far weaker Reich if they need to.

Because time and treasure was a luxury the Wallies had that the Russian and the Germans didn't


*don't get me wrong that doesn't mean he wasn't a ruthless dictator with the deaths of millions on his hands due to his policies

 

[TDM]

What exactly makes you believe that Stukas were bad at attacking naval ships?
Both StG 2 and StG 77 were trained in attacking naval vessels. In 1941 the Allies lost numerous ships in the Mediterranean to these two wings. See the Salamat disaster, British losses during Operation Excess, and the battle of Crete. When properly trained for it, Stukas were more than capable of sea attacks. StG 2 and StG 3 also sank several ships in the Mediterranean during this period, although I am not sure if they were explicitly trained for this.

when properly trained for it

Also yes they sunk some ships but frankly it's WW2 a lot of ships were sunk, but in the wider context the stuka was never a decisive naval weapon for the Germans. and so no going back to the original claim my post was responding to, 100 stukas will really not send the RN "running for dear life". Because the RN is not just found in convoys of troop ships with two escort destroyers, getting caught in the open having left later than ordered (Slamat)

You mention Operation excess, but lets look at the numbers even with the extra 500 LW planes send from Norway to Sicily they managed to managed to sink one Cruiser, damage beyond repair one Destroyer and damage another Cruiser and an Aircraft Carrier. Oh and no allied merchant ships were lost which given that's what the LW and RM were there for is not very good is it?

Crete's better for the LW, actual loses from the LW were 3 cruisers and 4 destroyers, but what happens is that the end of the RN in the Med?

 

[ArtosStark]

Operation Excess was run by the best Maritime strike squadron the Germans ever had, who trained in that almost exclusively. They trained specifically to hit Illustrious and her positioning with the fleet (rather than further to the south as her captain had wanted, made her extra vulnerable. They still only managed to damage (and not sink) her with multiple, concentrated attacks. Increasing the LW presence in the Med would likely increase the RN damaged numbers but it is unlikely to drive them from the Sea.

 

[MattII]

In addition, we can't even be sure it was a Ju-87 that dealt SS Slamat the first, crippling blow, she was also attacked by Ju-88s and Do-17s, both of which could also carry 250 kg bombs.

 

[JamesHunter]

Operation Excess was run by the best Maritime strike squadron the Germans ever had, who trained in that almost exclusively. They trained specifically to hit Illustrious and her positioning with the fleet (rather than further to the south as her captain had wanted, made her extra vulnerable. They still only managed to damage (and not sink) her with multiple, concentrated attacks. Increasing the LW presence in the Med would likely increase the RN damaged numbers but it is unlikely to drive them from the Sea.

Also that was January 1941, at that time British naval aircraft and AA was not as effective as it would become and away from air cover the Stuka is still somewhat effective. By 1943 (when the hypothetical offensive would occur) the Carrier would have many more anti air guns bolted anywhere there is room. Meanwhile Fulmer's have been succeeded by things like Martlets and cannon armed Seafire's that can do a Stuka in one pass so it would be much harder. Also as mentioned the armoured deck means much less chance of a hanger piercing hit with the bombs in use so unless caught launching a strike the odds of crippling the carrier before being shot down are low.

Finally there is a good chance institutional knowledge has been lost due to the German habit of keeping pilots on the frontline. Its probable many of those trained in ship killing have died in years of non stop battle and their replacements are likely very green. Obviously the greatest ace of all time flew the JU-87 but he was something of a freak and very lucky. In practice German pilots racked up kills in the hundreds because they were kept on ops until they died rather than being rotated to train new pilots. Combined with all the instructor's lost in Norway or over Crete and it maybe sometime before a force that good can be trained again. Time when F4-U's and Hellcat's are reaching allied Carrier's to make the strike even more suicidal.

In addition, we can't even be sure it was a Ju-87 that dealt SS Slamat the first, crippling blow, she was also attacked by Ju-88s and Do-17s, both of which could also carry 250 kg bombs.

Yeah Slamat seems to have been freak bad luck.

 

[TDM]

Also that was January 1941, at that time British naval aircraft and AA was not as effective as it would become and away from air cover the Stuka is still somewhat effective. By 1943 (when the hypothetical offensive would occur) the Carrier would have many more anti air guns bolted anywhere there is room. Meanwhile Fulmer's have been succeeded by things like Martlets and cannon armed Seafire's that can do a Stuka in one pass so it would be much harder. Also as mentioned the armoured deck means much less chance of a hanger piercing hit with the bombs in use so unless caught launching a strike the odds of crippling the carrier before being shot down are low.

Finally there is a good chance institutional knowledge has been lost due to the German habit of keeping pilots on the frontline. Its probable many of those trained in ship killing have died in years of non stop battle and their replacements are likely very green. Obviously the greatest ace of all time flew the JU-87 but he was something of a freak and very lucky. In practice German pilots racked up kills in the hundreds because they were kept on ops until they died rather than being rotated to train new pilots. Combined with all the instructor's lost in Norway or over Crete and it maybe sometime before a force that good can be trained again. Time when F4-U's and Hellcat's are reaching allied Carrier's to make the strike even more suicidal.


Yeah Slamat seems to have been freak bad luck.

Quite, for instance I'm not sure how well the aforementioned 100 Stukas will fair against proximity fuzes. Eisenhower had to demand their use in naval AA in July 43 for the Sicily invasion OTL, but of teh Med becomes an (even) more active warzone in the is ATL I'm guessing they will be made available. (Plus they are safer from capture when uses as AA at sea anyway)

 

[StrikeEcho]

You know, I'm pretty sure if it take the Nazi to 1943 to take Moscow and the Red Army and the Politburo is forced to retreat behind the Ural Mountains, what's stopping them from conducting scorched earth tactics to prevent the Germans from getting anything useful?

Plus, the Soviets had mostly moved most of the industry and a close to 16 million people by end of 41. Even if the Germans were able to secure European Russia, I doubt they would've have the ability to restart production any time soon.

 

[Sarthak]

You know, I'm pretty sure if it take the Nazi to 1943 to take Moscow and the Red Army and the Politburo is forced to retreat behind the Ural Mountains, what's stopping them from conducting scorched earth tactics to prevent the Germans from getting anything useful?

Plus, the Soviets had mostly moved most of the industry and a close to 16 million people by end of 41. Even if the Germans were able to secure European Russia, I doubt they would've have the ability to restart production any time soon.

Perhaps.
However the sheer resources alone is enormously good for Germany.
Food from Ukraine for the troops, coal from the don basin, oil from the Volga and North Caucasus. Steel from the central Muscovy region etc etc.

 

[StrikeEcho]

Perhaps.
However the sheer resources alone is enormously good for Germany.
Food from Ukraine for the troops, coal from the don basin, oil from the Volga and North Caucasus. Steel from the central Muscovy region etc etc.

And how long does it take the Germans to set-up production and extraction of these resources when the infrastructure, land and population is a burnt out husk? Also, I doubt the Russians behind the Urals wouldn't start bombing campaigns to hit the Germans however, while the Army is rebuilt. I'm pretty sure the Allies would happy supply the Ural Russians the means to do so.

 

[Sarthak]

And how long does it take the Germans to set-up production and extraction of these resources when the infrastructure, land and population is a burnt out husk? Also, I doubt the Russians behind the Urals wouldn't start bombing campaigns to hit the Germans however, while the Army is rebuilt. I'm pretty sure the Allies would happy supply the Ural Russians the means to do so.

As shown historically more than a third of the resource extraction areas were not destroyed by the Russians. Going by that proportion itself, that is still a huge boon to the German war economy. Two third destroyed? Yes that's not good for the Germans sure. But even a third of the resource extraction up and running still means a huge leap forward and a massive surplus for the German industries to make weapons of war with.

 

[JamesHunter]

Quite, for instance I'm not sure how well the aforementioned 100 Stukas will fair against proximity fuzes. Eisenhower had to demand their use in naval AA in July 43 for the Sicily invasion OTL, but of teh Med becomes an (even) more active warzone in the is ATL I'm guessing they will be made available. (Plus they are safer from capture when uses as AA at sea anyway)

Yeah. Also they're likely to be detected on radar a long way off, are very slow and (unless someone's an idiot) unlikely to be attacking under fighter cover due to distance from land. Frankly its more likely to be remembered as the "Great Mediterranean Pheasant shoot," than an effective attack because Lusty should have time to launch all fighters before the attack begins.

And how long does it take the Germans to set-up production and extraction of these resources when the infrastructure, land and population is a burnt out husk? Also, I doubt the Russians behind the Urals wouldn't start bombing campaigns to hit the Germans however, while the Army is rebuilt. I'm pretty sure the Allies would happy supply the Ural Russians the means to do so.

That and while Partisans weren't that effective OTL by then the population probably will know what the Germans have planned. Sabotage will be endemic and "now or never" Warsaw ghetto style uprising common. Also if many have fled behind the Urals they could run out of labour as they need all the German men to stay in the Heer and their form of slave labour was inherently"wasteful." Finally by about 1946 the factories will be back in Allied bombing range due to the B-36.

 

[TDM]

Perhaps.
However the sheer resources alone is enormously good for Germany.
Food from Ukraine for the troops, coal from the don basin, oil from the Volga and North Caucasus. Steel from the central Muscovy region etc etc.

True but it takes time to get all that back up and running and back home, some of it will be sabotages as well (especially the Oil).

Don't get me wrong given enough time, manpower and breathing space I'm sure a triumphant Germany would be able to make it's newly seized Russian empire a net benefit to the Reich. (although GPOst will make this harder). That for me is not in doubt. it's the idea that it will all happen so quickly and with an ongoing war, that all this iron, coal and oil will suddenly turn into umpteen thousand Me262s or what ever to send the wallies packing and make them sue for peace. Not when the wallies have already mobilised far greater resources and production even if every Russian resources flipped 100% to Germany with perfect and instant efficiency. On tip of that wallie production is safe from attack but Germany's isn't

 

[StrikeEcho]

As shown historically more than a third of the resource extraction areas were not destroyed by the Russians. Going by that proportion itself, that is still a huge boon to the German war economy. Two third destroyed? Yes that's not good for the Germans sure. But even a third of the resource extraction up and running still means a huge leap forward and a massive surplus for the German industries to make weapons of war with.

But that's OTL, if the Soviets knew they had to pull back to the Urals Im pretty sure they'd destroy more than 2/3 plus you have those resources extracted good, but it's all the way in Russia, and your production base is in Germany. Considering the dogshit logistics capabilities of the Nazis, I doubt they're gonna get anything meaningful before 45.

 

[TDM]

As shown historically more than a third of the resource extraction areas were not destroyed by the Russians. Going by that proportion itself, that is still a huge boon to the German war economy. Two third destroyed? Yes that's not good for the Germans sure. But even a third of the resource extraction up and running still means a huge leap forward and a massive surplus for the German industries to make weapons of war with.

Only you have to get it from Russian resource extraction areas to German manufacturing, so if nothing else that means you going to have rebuild a lot of railroads and other infrastructure to do that. Also Iron ore doesn't leap out the ground and turn into steel all by self, you going have to devote time and resources to gain those resources.

Plus of course German factories don't make any tanks no matter how much Iron ore you have coming from Russia if they are irradiated ruins, or their workers are dead, lying in makeshift hospital with 40% burns by area, or dying of this strange new sickness.

 

[Captain Homicide]

also frankly this also buys into the "Russia just zerg rushed their way to Berlin", which is a much over stated meme

That wasn’t my point.

My point was that Stalin and the Politburo were very callous when it came to the lives of their soldiers, many times more so than the WAllies.

 

[TDM]

Yeah. Also they're likely to be detected on radar a long way off, are very slow and (unless someone's an idiot) unlikely to be attacking under fighter cover due to distance from land. Frankly its more likely to be remembered as the "Great Mediterranean Pheasant shoot," than an effective attack because Lusty should have time to launch all fighters before the attack begins.


That and while Partisans weren't that effective OTL by then the population probably will know what the Germans have planned. Sabotage will be endemic and "now or never" Warsaw ghetto style uprising common. Also if many have fled behind the Urals they could run out of labour as they need all the German men to stay in the Heer and their form of slave labour was inherently"wasteful." Finally by about 1946 the factories will be back in Allied bombing range due to the B-36.

Yep, also with the B-36 that OTL development and production. in in a 1943+ ATL where the war pretty much becomes an air war campaign, I'm guessing we'll see OTL post war stuff coming in faster.