Of course, I've done my delivery for today and the casework can wait until tomorrow - so I'm in the garden with the laptop doing some more updates. Lovely day for it. South Ribble - David Borrow wasn't it, nice chap, bit of a shame (and you won't hear me say that about too many from Neues Arbeit)
Were you still up for Balls?
- Thread starter iainbhx
- Start date
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Of course, I've done my delivery for today and the casework can wait until tomorrow - so I'm in the garden with the laptop doing some more updates. Lovely day for it. South Ribble - David Borrow wasn't it, nice chap, bit of a shame (and you won't hear me say that about too many from Neues Arbeit)
from Just Labour - Ed Millband
The last part of Election Day was just a blur, the agent did a ring-round to see if any help was forthcoming, but most Coalfield seats were in the same position, their supporters weren't coming out, where they had information it was poor and anecdotal and there was a lot of nasty comments being made. They had also all pulled their troops back from marginals and left some of the marginals in a precarious state. The only help we got was from Hull, where John Prescott turned up with about 12 helpers for Rosie and even they didn't arrive until 7pm.
The last few days of press coverage had been particularly bad for Yorkshire, the expenses claims stuff had been revised, reheated and added to with revelations that Eric Illsley and Denis McShane were being investigated, the Telegraph doesn't sell well in Doncaster, but it was on the front on plenty of last-gasp leaflets for the council elections which were being closely fought.
I ended up doing a couple of hours gladhanding at the polling stations to try and help Rosie, but it really wasn't very good. A lot of people were bitter and vocal about it, ranging between "Your are all crooks", "What about the P*** grooming our children (a particularly irresponsible piece in the Yorkshire Post two days before) and strangely Dawn Butler's "fizzy pop tax" idea she'd floated the day before. At least I didn't end up being driven away by heckling youths like Denis or being spat on by an old lady by Eric.
I went home and had supper with Justine and ignored all the phone calls except for one from David which was friendly but said that Newcastle was a nightmare waiting to happen and he felt that we could be not doing as well in council seats as we thought we might. We arranged to chat later after we had both been re-elected, David joked that we might not be.
I watched the exit poll results, on Sky which were more forthcoming than the BBC and actually thought - that isn't as bad as it feels out on the polling station. I then drove to the count, which had been going about an hour, there was no messing around with queues of people voting in Doncaster, I think every station closed at 10pm on the dot. The verification was going very slowly and it was dire, I'd won, that was pretty clear, but I was down about 15% - if that was repeated throughout the country it would be a reversed 1997.
I popped over to see how Rosie was doing, she was desperately unhappy - she was down over 20% and extremely worried about the Liberals. Mayor Davies had spent most of the day campaigning in her seat, not for his party and their alliance of circumstance with the BNP, but with a deeply unpleasant slogan that suggested that her deep friendship with John Prescott was rather Ugandan.
I went back to my count, only half watching and trying to work out what had really gone wrong. Was it just the perfect storm against Labour, was it that Clegg really had struck a chord with the nation, was Gordon really that hated? It was difficult to tell, but I kept on thinking of what Jon Cruddas had said a few months ago that Labour had gone from looking after its core vote, through ignoring its core vote to actively working against its core vote. I also remember Margaret Hodge, Dawn Butler and Harriet Harman's very unpleasant reaction to that. I thought about this for some time and decided to chat to Jon as soon as we were back in session.
The last part of Election Day was just a blur, the agent did a ring-round to see if any help was forthcoming, but most Coalfield seats were in the same position, their supporters weren't coming out, where they had information it was poor and anecdotal and there was a lot of nasty comments being made. They had also all pulled their troops back from marginals and left some of the marginals in a precarious state. The only help we got was from Hull, where John Prescott turned up with about 12 helpers for Rosie and even they didn't arrive until 7pm.
The last few days of press coverage had been particularly bad for Yorkshire, the expenses claims stuff had been revised, reheated and added to with revelations that Eric Illsley and Denis McShane were being investigated, the Telegraph doesn't sell well in Doncaster, but it was on the front on plenty of last-gasp leaflets for the council elections which were being closely fought.
I ended up doing a couple of hours gladhanding at the polling stations to try and help Rosie, but it really wasn't very good. A lot of people were bitter and vocal about it, ranging between "Your are all crooks", "What about the P*** grooming our children (a particularly irresponsible piece in the Yorkshire Post two days before) and strangely Dawn Butler's "fizzy pop tax" idea she'd floated the day before. At least I didn't end up being driven away by heckling youths like Denis or being spat on by an old lady by Eric.
I went home and had supper with Justine and ignored all the phone calls except for one from David which was friendly but said that Newcastle was a nightmare waiting to happen and he felt that we could be not doing as well in council seats as we thought we might. We arranged to chat later after we had both been re-elected, David joked that we might not be.
I watched the exit poll results, on Sky which were more forthcoming than the BBC and actually thought - that isn't as bad as it feels out on the polling station. I then drove to the count, which had been going about an hour, there was no messing around with queues of people voting in Doncaster, I think every station closed at 10pm on the dot. The verification was going very slowly and it was dire, I'd won, that was pretty clear, but I was down about 15% - if that was repeated throughout the country it would be a reversed 1997.
I popped over to see how Rosie was doing, she was desperately unhappy - she was down over 20% and extremely worried about the Liberals. Mayor Davies had spent most of the day campaigning in her seat, not for his party and their alliance of circumstance with the BNP, but with a deeply unpleasant slogan that suggested that her deep friendship with John Prescott was rather Ugandan.
I went back to my count, only half watching and trying to work out what had really gone wrong. Was it just the perfect storm against Labour, was it that Clegg really had struck a chord with the nation, was Gordon really that hated? It was difficult to tell, but I kept on thinking of what Jon Cruddas had said a few months ago that Labour had gone from looking after its core vote, through ignoring its core vote to actively working against its core vote. I also remember Margaret Hodge, Dawn Butler and Harriet Harman's very unpleasant reaction to that. I thought about this for some time and decided to chat to Jon as soon as we were back in session.
Wouldn't entirely agree with your "bit of a shame" comment, given I spent several years campaigning against the man, and being threatened by his supporters.
Look forward to seeing what happens in the seat though. I too have been out delivering today on the nicest day of the year so far. Oh, the life of a sad political anorak never ceases to fill up with delights...
BBC result thread : 1:20-1:30
DD: So, how are things in Torbay, Jo.
Jo Bishop Well, the candidates are on the stage and Torbay is happy to be in the limelight again. From all accounts, Adrian Sanders has comfortably held his seat for the third time.
DD: So Sanders of the Riviera is back, despite the Tories taking the Mayoralty in 2007 and UKIP winning the area in the Euro-elections. Is this down to Nick Clegg?
JB: No, people speak highly of him here, a hard-working MP and one with a perfectly clean expenses record and he has strong local roots. Also the Tory council isn't very popular. It may be a shock to the Torbay Tories, but it's no shock to anyone else who lives here.
RO: I, Elizabeth Raikes, the Returning Officer for the borough constituency of Torbay, do declare that the total number of valid votes cast for this constituency is Fifty Seven Thousand, Five Hundred and Eight Nine and the numbers cast for each candidate are as follows
Conway, Ann BNP One Thousand Five Hundred and Forty Nine
A couple of small boos
Moss, Sam GreenOne Thousand One Hundred and Thirty Five
A small ripple of applause
Parrott, Julien United Kingdom Independence Party Three Thousand Eight Hundred and Twenty Four
Some applause and a cry of "Britain Out"
Pedrick-Friend Labour Two Thousand Nine Hundred and Forty Eight
Some clapping and a cry of "Have they lost their deposit"
Sanders, Adrian Liberal Democrat Twenty Nine Thousand Cheers and Huge Applause, I'll repeat that, Twenty Nine Thousand, Six Hundred and Forty Seven More Cheers and applause
Wood, Marcus Conservative Eighteen Thousand, Four Hundred and Eight Six
Considerable Applause, some cheers and a shout of "Better luck next time"
And I hereby declare, the aforementioned Adrian Sanders elected as the Member of Parliament for the Borough Constituency of Torbay.
Labour Hold Rutherglen and Hamilton West
DD: Well, Jo, that seems a bit more than comfortable to me, I make that just over eleven thousand as a majority.
JB: I was slightly surprised it was that much.
DD: Well, I understand you'll get another try later tonight.
JB: Yes, David, as there's time, myself and the crew will be moving to Totnes which is expected in about an hour and a half.
DD: Thank you, Jo, we will see you again at that point. I noticed another Labour hold in Scotland flash past us during that. Emily, any comments.
EM: Well, the Labour hold is by over 20,000 votes, Scotland is having the increased turnout but not the swing. Anyway, a very good result for Adrian Sanders and lets look at the details.
EM: that's a very good result for Adrian Sanders which will probably give a lot of heart to a number of LibDems who feel they are facing strong Conservative challenges. Labour just save their deposit, the BNP and the Greens lose theirs. Obviously, there are local factors, but the LibDems are very good at squeezing the Labour vote until the pips squeak, but not quite so good at squeezing Tories when Labour are the opponents. Jeremy?
JV: This is a result that will make the Tories unhappy, a couple more like this and I think we will be able to wave goodbye to any Tory hopes of gaining a LibDem seat. However, we have another interesting result, this time from Ynys Môn.
EM: I'd like to go over to Huw Edwards in Cardiff on this one. Huw?
HE: Emily, well, it's a bit of a shock, but not a huge one. Politics on the Island is very complex and very, very local. A look at the history of the council will tell you that. I wouldn't make anything of it, as we say here, what happens on Ynys Môn, please let it stay on Ynys Môn. Plaid will be extremely pleased, it's been some hard years for them on the Island and with the Assembly and as they have failed to gain Ceredigion back, this was their only real hope.
EM: Thanks Huw, anything to say, Jeremy.
JV: I think Huw has said it all. Lowest swing away from Labour yet though, they must be hoping for a few more like that. David.
DD: Plaid Cymru and the LibDems equal on two seats that won't last, although I think some of our panel might remember back that far. Lord Kinnock?
Neil Kinnock: Well, I don't think that the Liberals have ever been reduced quite that far, but I do remember when they could have fitted into two taxis. One for Cyril Smith and one for the rest of the Parliamentary Party. If that's the best result of the night for Labour, I will be very worried, but I think we are seeing specific swings for specific problems. I'll be interested when the more suburban seats come in, especially the more marginal ones, I suspect the swings may well be less in those.
DD: Ah, has your Blackberry told you something?
Conservative Hold Broxbourne
NK: No, whilst I haven't taken myself "Out of the Loop" like Michael here, news has been quite scant for the last 10 minutes or so. About the only thing I've heard is that we believe we have held Gedling in Nottinghamshire, which was a prime Tory target, but Vernon Coaker is amongst the most diligent MP's.
DD: Lord Ashdown, more than two taxis?
PA: More than two mini-buses, I think David, possibly even a couple of single decker buses and as I'm firmly "In the Loop", I can tell you that we think we may have taken Bridgend in Wales from Labour.
Labour Hold Vale of Clwyd
PA: There you go, Neil, a consolation prize for you.
NK: With only three thousand off his majority, a very good result for Chris Ruane.
DD: I think we should ask Fiona if there is any other news.
Conservatives Hold Putney
FB: Well, David, Labour's spin doctors do appear to have started to fall quiet at this point, but a quick check around the counts seems to show that the Conservatives are feeling confident in Blackpool North, City of Chester and Pendle. The LibDem's on the other hand are telling me to watch North East Derbyshire and as Paddy just mentioned Bridgend.
Second Recount confirmed in Darlington
DD: Can you tell us anything about Darlington
Labour hold Sedgefield
FB: Well, we haven't got anyone on the spot there, but we've spoken to the local press who say that the margin on the initial count was "less than 100" and the bundle check has revealed no flaws. They had spoken to a Lib Dem who said "we aren't calling the recount". The press said that all the piles were reasonably similar in size, but the LibDems and Labour looked to be a bit bigger than the Tories.
State of the parties at 1:30pm: Lab 9, Con 4, LDm 2, PC 2
DD: So, how are things in Torbay, Jo.
Jo Bishop Well, the candidates are on the stage and Torbay is happy to be in the limelight again. From all accounts, Adrian Sanders has comfortably held his seat for the third time.
DD: So Sanders of the Riviera is back, despite the Tories taking the Mayoralty in 2007 and UKIP winning the area in the Euro-elections. Is this down to Nick Clegg?
JB: No, people speak highly of him here, a hard-working MP and one with a perfectly clean expenses record and he has strong local roots. Also the Tory council isn't very popular. It may be a shock to the Torbay Tories, but it's no shock to anyone else who lives here.
RO: I, Elizabeth Raikes, the Returning Officer for the borough constituency of Torbay, do declare that the total number of valid votes cast for this constituency is Fifty Seven Thousand, Five Hundred and Eight Nine and the numbers cast for each candidate are as follows
Conway, Ann BNP One Thousand Five Hundred and Forty Nine
A couple of small boos
Moss, Sam GreenOne Thousand One Hundred and Thirty Five
A small ripple of applause
Parrott, Julien United Kingdom Independence Party Three Thousand Eight Hundred and Twenty Four
Some applause and a cry of "Britain Out"
Pedrick-Friend Labour Two Thousand Nine Hundred and Forty Eight
Some clapping and a cry of "Have they lost their deposit"
Sanders, Adrian Liberal Democrat Twenty Nine Thousand Cheers and Huge Applause, I'll repeat that, Twenty Nine Thousand, Six Hundred and Forty Seven More Cheers and applause
Wood, Marcus Conservative Eighteen Thousand, Four Hundred and Eight Six
Considerable Applause, some cheers and a shout of "Better luck next time"
And I hereby declare, the aforementioned Adrian Sanders elected as the Member of Parliament for the Borough Constituency of Torbay.
Labour Hold Rutherglen and Hamilton West
DD: Well, Jo, that seems a bit more than comfortable to me, I make that just over eleven thousand as a majority.
JB: I was slightly surprised it was that much.
DD: Well, I understand you'll get another try later tonight.
JB: Yes, David, as there's time, myself and the crew will be moving to Totnes which is expected in about an hour and a half.
DD: Thank you, Jo, we will see you again at that point. I noticed another Labour hold in Scotland flash past us during that. Emily, any comments.
EM: Well, the Labour hold is by over 20,000 votes, Scotland is having the increased turnout but not the swing. Anyway, a very good result for Adrian Sanders and lets look at the details.
Code:
Torbay
Electorate: 76,176
Turnout: 75.59%
[SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrange"]Liberal Democrat Hold[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Adrian Sanders* LDm 29,674 51.5% + 9.7
Marcus Wood Con 18,486 32.1% - 4.4
Julien Parrott UKIP 3,824 6.7% - 1.2
David Pedrick-Friend Lab 2,949 5.1% - 9.5
Ann Conway BNP 1,549 2.7% + 2.7
Sam Moss Grn 1,135 2.0% + 2.0
Majority : 11,161 (19.4%)
Swing : Conservative to Liberal Democrat: 7.0%EM: that's a very good result for Adrian Sanders which will probably give a lot of heart to a number of LibDems who feel they are facing strong Conservative challenges. Labour just save their deposit, the BNP and the Greens lose theirs. Obviously, there are local factors, but the LibDems are very good at squeezing the Labour vote until the pips squeak, but not quite so good at squeezing Tories when Labour are the opponents. Jeremy?
JV: This is a result that will make the Tories unhappy, a couple more like this and I think we will be able to wave goodbye to any Tory hopes of gaining a LibDem seat. However, we have another interesting result, this time from Ynys Môn.
Code:
Ynys Môn
Electorate : 64,379
Turnout: 76.13%
[SIZE="4"][COLOR="SeaGreen"]Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Dylan Rees PC 16,314 33.3% + 2.2
Albert Owen* Lab 14,452 29.5% - 5.1
Anthony Ridge-Newman Con 7,329 15.0% + 4.0
Matt Wood LDm 5,786 11.8% + 5.0
Peter Rogers Ind 3,552 7.2% - 7.5
Elaine Gill UKIP 1,352 2.8% + 1.8
David Owen ChP 206 0.4% + 0.5
Majority: 1,862
Swing : Labour to Plaid Cymru 3.6%EM: I'd like to go over to Huw Edwards in Cardiff on this one. Huw?
HE: Emily, well, it's a bit of a shock, but not a huge one. Politics on the Island is very complex and very, very local. A look at the history of the council will tell you that. I wouldn't make anything of it, as we say here, what happens on Ynys Môn, please let it stay on Ynys Môn. Plaid will be extremely pleased, it's been some hard years for them on the Island and with the Assembly and as they have failed to gain Ceredigion back, this was their only real hope.
EM: Thanks Huw, anything to say, Jeremy.
JV: I think Huw has said it all. Lowest swing away from Labour yet though, they must be hoping for a few more like that. David.
DD: Plaid Cymru and the LibDems equal on two seats that won't last, although I think some of our panel might remember back that far. Lord Kinnock?
Neil Kinnock: Well, I don't think that the Liberals have ever been reduced quite that far, but I do remember when they could have fitted into two taxis. One for Cyril Smith and one for the rest of the Parliamentary Party. If that's the best result of the night for Labour, I will be very worried, but I think we are seeing specific swings for specific problems. I'll be interested when the more suburban seats come in, especially the more marginal ones, I suspect the swings may well be less in those.
DD: Ah, has your Blackberry told you something?
Conservative Hold Broxbourne
NK: No, whilst I haven't taken myself "Out of the Loop" like Michael here, news has been quite scant for the last 10 minutes or so. About the only thing I've heard is that we believe we have held Gedling in Nottinghamshire, which was a prime Tory target, but Vernon Coaker is amongst the most diligent MP's.
DD: Lord Ashdown, more than two taxis?
PA: More than two mini-buses, I think David, possibly even a couple of single decker buses and as I'm firmly "In the Loop", I can tell you that we think we may have taken Bridgend in Wales from Labour.
Labour Hold Vale of Clwyd
PA: There you go, Neil, a consolation prize for you.
NK: With only three thousand off his majority, a very good result for Chris Ruane.
DD: I think we should ask Fiona if there is any other news.
Conservatives Hold Putney
FB: Well, David, Labour's spin doctors do appear to have started to fall quiet at this point, but a quick check around the counts seems to show that the Conservatives are feeling confident in Blackpool North, City of Chester and Pendle. The LibDem's on the other hand are telling me to watch North East Derbyshire and as Paddy just mentioned Bridgend.
Second Recount confirmed in Darlington
DD: Can you tell us anything about Darlington
Labour hold Sedgefield
FB: Well, we haven't got anyone on the spot there, but we've spoken to the local press who say that the margin on the initial count was "less than 100" and the bundle check has revealed no flaws. They had spoken to a Lib Dem who said "we aren't calling the recount". The press said that all the piles were reasonably similar in size, but the LibDems and Labour looked to be a bit bigger than the Tories.
State of the parties at 1:30pm: Lab 9, Con 4, LDm 2, PC 2
My understanding was Chippenham was notional LibDem, but there were two sets of notionals. Wells, of course, was mildly expenses-related but was my most unexpected gain of the election, I'd long written it off as an "always close, never gain".
Fear not, Jacob will still be around to win "Upper Class Twit of the Year".
Chippenham was very very close between the LibDem and the Conservatives. Both parties had a strong candidate there, so it was a good fight, even though I still think that Wilfred desserved to win
.The campagn in Wells was very very dirty from what I have been told (same in Taunton), with posters being spray painted and even Conservatives supporters physically attacked by LibDems at an event. The seat was targetted by the Joseph Rowntree trust in their campaign to make parliament better to something like that. David Heathcoat Amory became famous during the expenses scandal as he claimed money for horse manure. He apparently decided to do gardening by himself instead of claiming expenses for a gardener. At least that's what a source close to him said to me last year.
Jacob is certainly very upper class and very posh, but he is quite a decent guy nevertheless. He certainly knows a few things and became a very good commons speaker over the course of last year.
I am very much looking forward to the Bath result, but I have a feeling it won't be pretty at all ...
From Inside the Horse by Henry McStory
The balloon started to go up about 1am, Mark Flanagan emailed me a list of progress in the target seats and it really didn't look to wonderful. His geeks reckoned we might get 285, 290 tops. If it was 290, we might go for a minority with some paid off Bible Bashers from NI, if it was 285, well, it was do a deal with the Head Boy and his beardie-weirdies.
Hilton was obsessing on Portillo going all "97" and cutting himself off on air, we agreed that Justine Greening would head over there as soon as Putney declared, but he wanted her in for a short thought shower with his motley crew on how to handle what was not going to be an easy night. It was her or Sayeeda and only Hilton would take that risk.
Personally, I wasn't that upset, at the start of the day I'd thought 315, a nice deal with the Cuckold and an autumn election to "decide how runs this country", but where we were looking at was a bit dodgy for that. I sent out a short email saying "We need to look at Plan E" and as I did that the shit started to hit the fan, Flanagan's boys reckon we might lose 12-15 to the Head Boy and probably not gain more than 2 off him. The latest number was 280-285.
In the midst of all this, I could feel the coffins stirring. I must admit, I was expecting an outburst from Tebbit or the Vulcan, but the Tombstone group had collectively grown a pair and released a press statement saying that they had their reservations during the Campaign and that we should have concentrated more on Europe, public morality and law and order and less on "diversity" and being "touchy-feely".
Luckily, with a action filled election night on going, their little communal Tourette's would escape as quickly as a fart in a Colander; but if they were playing up in public, we could be fairly sure that others would be playing up behind the scenes.
I asked Mark for the "Danger List" of our lot and it arrived within a couple of minutes, there were eighteen names on it of which three were Shadow Cabinet Members, one would be a loss, the second would be a disaster, the third would be fucking hilarious. Unfortunately, amongst the also rans there weren't names like Binley, Cash, Hayes, Mad Nad and Rosindell, but there were one or two to bring a smile to my lips.
The balloon started to go up about 1am, Mark Flanagan emailed me a list of progress in the target seats and it really didn't look to wonderful. His geeks reckoned we might get 285, 290 tops. If it was 290, we might go for a minority with some paid off Bible Bashers from NI, if it was 285, well, it was do a deal with the Head Boy and his beardie-weirdies.
Hilton was obsessing on Portillo going all "97" and cutting himself off on air, we agreed that Justine Greening would head over there as soon as Putney declared, but he wanted her in for a short thought shower with his motley crew on how to handle what was not going to be an easy night. It was her or Sayeeda and only Hilton would take that risk.
Personally, I wasn't that upset, at the start of the day I'd thought 315, a nice deal with the Cuckold and an autumn election to "decide how runs this country", but where we were looking at was a bit dodgy for that. I sent out a short email saying "We need to look at Plan E" and as I did that the shit started to hit the fan, Flanagan's boys reckon we might lose 12-15 to the Head Boy and probably not gain more than 2 off him. The latest number was 280-285.
In the midst of all this, I could feel the coffins stirring. I must admit, I was expecting an outburst from Tebbit or the Vulcan, but the Tombstone group had collectively grown a pair and released a press statement saying that they had their reservations during the Campaign and that we should have concentrated more on Europe, public morality and law and order and less on "diversity" and being "touchy-feely".
Luckily, with a action filled election night on going, their little communal Tourette's would escape as quickly as a fart in a Colander; but if they were playing up in public, we could be fairly sure that others would be playing up behind the scenes.
I asked Mark for the "Danger List" of our lot and it arrived within a couple of minutes, there were eighteen names on it of which three were Shadow Cabinet Members, one would be a loss, the second would be a disaster, the third would be fucking hilarious. Unfortunately, amongst the also rans there weren't names like Binley, Cash, Hayes, Mad Nad and Rosindell, but there were one or two to bring a smile to my lips.
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I'm involved in politics, I've been an agent, I am a councillor, I've watched election nights compulsively since 1974 (when I was nine) - although I didn't see 2010 (or much of 2005). I know the feeling of tension, of Chinese Whispers, of plotting. Whataboutery is just another skill for your average politklown, turning it into a half way decent what-if is something different.
Fear not, both your seats will at least get a full result.
Comment..
You got a name-check on politicalbetting this afternoon from Andy Cooke, who I've met at a couple of Mike Smithson's events including a very pleasant BBQ at the National Liberal Club. While Andy is firmly in the Conservative camp, he is certainly one of the most intelligent and engaging members.
I can't imagine how much number-crunching has gone into this but it's continuing to entertain and enthrall. I don't have any seat requests as such - my local constituency, East Ham, won't turn out any differently in the ATL than it did in OTL.
It looks like another fine day tomorrow - hope it is productive for you (and us).
You got a name-check on politicalbetting this afternoon from Andy Cooke, who I've met at a couple of Mike Smithson's events including a very pleasant BBQ at the National Liberal Club. While Andy is firmly in the Conservative camp, he is certainly one of the most intelligent and engaging members.
I can't imagine how much number-crunching has gone into this but it's continuing to entertain and enthrall. I don't have any seat requests as such - my local constituency, East Ham, won't turn out any differently in the ATL than it did in OTL.
It looks like another fine day tomorrow - hope it is productive for you (and us).
BBC results thread 1:31-1:45
Yeah, I'm on a bit of a roll tonight, my partner is visiting his parental units has just told me he's not back until midnight, so as I'm in the mood, let's whack through a few more seats - after all there's still over 600 to go.
Belfast East Alliance Gain from Democratic Unionist
DD: Oh my, that's a bit of a surprise result. Any thoughts from the panel? Michael?
MP: Well, it certainly is a bit of a shock, I suppose it must be a case of "Here's to you, Mrs Robinson".
General laughter and guffaws all round
DD: Well, just to remind viewers, it's just gone 1:30 on one of the stranger election nights of the last 50 years. It looks like this election will result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party and the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power. Only four seats have changed hands so far and one of those was a "technical change" due to notional results. Two have been gained by Plaid Cymru, one by the Conservatives and one by the Northern Ireland Alliance Party (who are, almost but not quite the Northern Ireland branch of the Liberal Democrats). Only sixteen seats have declared so far due to a high turnout which is delaying counts.
North Antrim Democratic Unionist Hold
DD: Make that seventeen as Iain Paisley, Jr takes over from his father in the very safe seat for the DUP of North Antrim. I know you want to say something Paddy, but I think we will just go over to Battersea with Riz Lateef. Riz
OB Battersea
RL: Thank you, David, you missed Putney a few minutes ago, which showed Justine Greening increasing her majority to nearly eleven thousand over the Labour Party. Justine is still celebrating with her party workers, but with typical Wandsworth efficiency, the candidates are lining up on the stage for Battersea. With his tiny majority of 163, I think Martin Linton has been expecting this for a couple of years now, but this time he's been trounced. It has been Conservative before, at the high of the Thatcher revolution, but demographic change and discontent with Labour have now left it very vulnerable.
DD: Are they ready?
RL: Nearly, our third seat Tooting will follow fairly quickly, but we are told there's a bit of rechecking going on there before they declare.
DD: A recount?
RL: No, it's not that close, but they are being careful. Ah here we go.
I, Gerald Jones, being the Returning Officer for the constituency of Battersea in the borough of Wandsworth, hereby give notice that the number of valid votes cast in the Parliamentary election is Fifty Five Thousand, Four Hundred and Seventy Six and that the total number of votes for each candidate is as follows.
Ellison, Jane Elizabeth Conservative Twenty Three Thousand, Six Hundred and Ninety-Nine
Big cheers, shouts, smiles from candidate
Evans, Guy Green Party One Thousand, Two Hundred and Thirty Seven
Fox, Tom Independent One hundred and Twenty
Linton, Martin Labour Sixteen Thousand, One Hundred and Sixty
Small Cheers, "Hard Luck Martin"
MacDonald, Christopher Peter UK Independence Party Eight Hundred and Ten
Moran, Layla Liberal DemocratThirteen Thousand, Two Hundred and Ninety Eight
Muted cheers
Salmon, Hugh Battersea FIRST One Hundred and Fifty Two.
And I hereby declare, the aforementioned Jane Elizabeth Ellison has been duly elected to serve as the member for the Battersea constituency.
Lots of cheering
RL: So there you have it David, a majority of seven thousand plus for the Tories here in Battersea, will you be back for Tooting?
West Tyrone Sinn Fein Hold
DD: Well, we would hope to be, so stay ready for us. Ah and here's a result to cheer Lord Kinnock's heart.
Islwyn Labour Hold
NK: Very sorry about Martin Linton, but he was always likely to be a casualty with the demographic change in Battersea over the years. Very pleased to hear that my old seat has been held by Chris Evans, Don was a hard act to follow but I'm sure Chris will do us proud. What was the majority.
EM: 8,557 over the Liberal Democrats
NK: The LibDems, the Yellow Peril are running rampant tonight.
Western Isles SNP Hold
DD: Well, there's no surprise, although it always amazes me how they count so early, I understand helicopters are involved. Emily, you have the details on Battersea.
EM: Interesting watching the Greens get squeezed there, they did manage over 4% at the last election. The LibDems have been a bit of a nothing in Wandsworth over the years, but there are quite a lot of people in the prime Clegg demographics there as well.
Upper Bann Democratic Unionist Hold
JV: Yes, the Southern marginal I wanted, I'd just like to see one or two more I think, but I'm starting to think that the exit poll may not be quite correct for Labour.
MP: Well, Sky had different results off the same figures.
JV: That's a difference in rounding techniques
MP: Really?
Labour Hold Motherwell and Wishaw
DD: Well we appear to have another result from the West Country and the first Liberal Democrat gain of the night.
PA: How appropriate.
DD: Wasn't that a notional three way marginal?
EM: Yes, it was, although it was very close between the Conservatives and Labour with the LibDems a small way behind.
DD: So they have taken it from third?
EM: Yes, they have, if the notionals were correct and this effectively the all new seat in CUBA built from three others.
DD: Cuba?
EM: County that Used to Be Avon
DD: I see.
Easington Labour Hold
DD: Another shock result.
EM: Indeed, the shock being that the Labour is down to only a snip above 10,000.
NK: Bloody Hell.
DD: Lord Kinnock!
NK: Sorry, David, but Easington down to just above 10,000 majority, that's like, Merthyr going Liberal. Unbelievable.
DD: Well, I understand we will be going to City of Durham in a minute for what looks like the second LibDem gain of the night, but Jeremy, any comments about Filton and Bradley Stoke.
JV: Yes, if this is representative of the Bristol Sub-Region, then it may well explain the lack of tweets from Kerry McCarthy for the last 20 minutes. It also might explain why a post on a political website has suggested that Liam Fox is worried about his majority.
North West Durham Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour
DD: Liam Fox, first Oliver Letwin, now ...
NK Raising voice over DD Did you see that, surely that's a mistake, David.
DD: I'm sure it is, Paddy?
PA: No, I'm in the dark about this.
DD: Well, we need to think about going to City of Durham
EM: I've just got confirmation off the AP, David. They are reporting a LibDem Gain.
DD: We will have to see this one. Emily, can you indulge us.
EM: This is stunning.
FB: I've just had confirmation of this from the local press. Everyone is stunned, Hilary Armstrong is in tears, the winner was barely able to speak he was so shocked.
EM: Well, if anything shows the dire state of the Labour party in parts of its heartlands, it's this result. The seat has been Labour since 1950, it contains Consett, Crook and Tow Law. Whilst the Weardale part has been Liberal at times, the Derwentside section was Labour until very recently. Interestingly enough, the UKIP candidate stood as an Independent last time, but was one of the "strong local Independents" Nigel Farage recruited to UKIP and the BNP have held their deposit on their first outing. This is the worst result for Labour tonight. Jeremy?
JV: Well, it's the worst we've seen so far and it is similar to the other NE safe seats, but
City of Durham Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
unlike the others, people seem to have gone behind the LibDems rather than scattering their vote about. A few more like this and Nick Clegg could be looking at getting into the 90's in terms of seats.
DD: We appear to have missed going to City of Durham in the excitement, but that one was well expected and we will have the result for you soon. Fiona, any other nasty shocks coming up for Labour?
FB: We have heard that Bishop Auckland may be going the same way, but they have only just finished their verification and there's that recount in Darlington. Also, very, very early reports from Newcastle indicate that the LibDems believe that are "doing very nicely".
DD: Have we the other result now, Emily?
EM: Yes, not quite so striking
EM: Well, this one is more in line with what was expected, this was a LibDem target seat, received lots of resources, has a student population (although somewhat demographically different to many universities) and has a substantial middle class and many better off public sector workers.
JV: The forecast is now starting to move a little bit, there are enough results in to just start doing it and it's showing the LibDems doing a little better than we predicted and Labour doing a little worse, the Tories are about the same. We currently think that the Tories will get 294 seats, the Labour party will get 223 seats and that the Liberal Democrats will get get a stunning 100 seats. We also believe that the Liberal Democrats will get 29% of the vote to Labours 27% of the vote, but those numbers are trending up for the LibDems and down for Labour. The Tories look pretty solid at 33%
DD: I'll go to the panel, but it's 1:45 and a time for a state of the parties update.
State of the Parties: Lab 12, Con 4, LDm 5, PC 2, DUP 2, SF 1, SNP 1, All 1
Yeah, I'm on a bit of a roll tonight, my partner is visiting his parental units has just told me he's not back until midnight, so as I'm in the mood, let's whack through a few more seats - after all there's still over 600 to go.
Belfast East Alliance Gain from Democratic Unionist
DD: Oh my, that's a bit of a surprise result. Any thoughts from the panel? Michael?
MP: Well, it certainly is a bit of a shock, I suppose it must be a case of "Here's to you, Mrs Robinson".
General laughter and guffaws all round
DD: Well, just to remind viewers, it's just gone 1:30 on one of the stranger election nights of the last 50 years. It looks like this election will result in a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party and the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power. Only four seats have changed hands so far and one of those was a "technical change" due to notional results. Two have been gained by Plaid Cymru, one by the Conservatives and one by the Northern Ireland Alliance Party (who are, almost but not quite the Northern Ireland branch of the Liberal Democrats). Only sixteen seats have declared so far due to a high turnout which is delaying counts.
North Antrim Democratic Unionist Hold
DD: Make that seventeen as Iain Paisley, Jr takes over from his father in the very safe seat for the DUP of North Antrim. I know you want to say something Paddy, but I think we will just go over to Battersea with Riz Lateef. Riz
OB Battersea
RL: Thank you, David, you missed Putney a few minutes ago, which showed Justine Greening increasing her majority to nearly eleven thousand over the Labour Party. Justine is still celebrating with her party workers, but with typical Wandsworth efficiency, the candidates are lining up on the stage for Battersea. With his tiny majority of 163, I think Martin Linton has been expecting this for a couple of years now, but this time he's been trounced. It has been Conservative before, at the high of the Thatcher revolution, but demographic change and discontent with Labour have now left it very vulnerable.
DD: Are they ready?
RL: Nearly, our third seat Tooting will follow fairly quickly, but we are told there's a bit of rechecking going on there before they declare.
DD: A recount?
RL: No, it's not that close, but they are being careful. Ah here we go.
I, Gerald Jones, being the Returning Officer for the constituency of Battersea in the borough of Wandsworth, hereby give notice that the number of valid votes cast in the Parliamentary election is Fifty Five Thousand, Four Hundred and Seventy Six and that the total number of votes for each candidate is as follows.
Ellison, Jane Elizabeth Conservative Twenty Three Thousand, Six Hundred and Ninety-Nine
Big cheers, shouts, smiles from candidate
Evans, Guy Green Party One Thousand, Two Hundred and Thirty Seven
Fox, Tom Independent One hundred and Twenty
Linton, Martin Labour Sixteen Thousand, One Hundred and Sixty
Small Cheers, "Hard Luck Martin"
MacDonald, Christopher Peter UK Independence Party Eight Hundred and Ten
Moran, Layla Liberal DemocratThirteen Thousand, Two Hundred and Ninety Eight
Muted cheers
Salmon, Hugh Battersea FIRST One Hundred and Fifty Two.
And I hereby declare, the aforementioned Jane Elizabeth Ellison has been duly elected to serve as the member for the Battersea constituency.
Lots of cheering
RL: So there you have it David, a majority of seven thousand plus for the Tories here in Battersea, will you be back for Tooting?
West Tyrone Sinn Fein Hold
DD: Well, we would hope to be, so stay ready for us. Ah and here's a result to cheer Lord Kinnock's heart.
Islwyn Labour Hold
NK: Very sorry about Martin Linton, but he was always likely to be a casualty with the demographic change in Battersea over the years. Very pleased to hear that my old seat has been held by Chris Evans, Don was a hard act to follow but I'm sure Chris will do us proud. What was the majority.
EM: 8,557 over the Liberal Democrats
NK: The LibDems, the Yellow Peril are running rampant tonight.
Western Isles SNP Hold
DD: Well, there's no surprise, although it always amazes me how they count so early, I understand helicopters are involved. Emily, you have the details on Battersea.
Code:
Wandsworth, Battersea
Electorate: 74,625
Turnout: 74.58%
[SIZE="4"][COLOR="RoyalBlue"]Conservative Gain from Labour[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Jane Ellison Con 23,699 42.7% + 2.7%
Martin Linton* Lab 16,160 29.1% -10.1%
Layla Moran LDm 13,981 24.0% + 9.4%
Guy Evans Grn 1,237 2.2% - 2.0%
Chris MacDonald UKIP 810 1.4% + 0.6%
Hugh Salmon Ind 152 0.2% + 0.2%
Tom Fox Ind 120 0.2% + 0.2%
Majority: 7,539 (13.6%)
Swing: Labour to Conservative 6.4%EM: Interesting watching the Greens get squeezed there, they did manage over 4% at the last election. The LibDems have been a bit of a nothing in Wandsworth over the years, but there are quite a lot of people in the prime Clegg demographics there as well.
Upper Bann Democratic Unionist Hold
JV: Yes, the Southern marginal I wanted, I'd just like to see one or two more I think, but I'm starting to think that the exit poll may not be quite correct for Labour.
MP: Well, Sky had different results off the same figures.
JV: That's a difference in rounding techniques
MP: Really?
Labour Hold Motherwell and Wishaw
DD: Well we appear to have another result from the West Country and the first Liberal Democrat gain of the night.
PA: How appropriate.
Code:
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Electorate : 69,001
Turnout: 78.01%
[SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrange"]Liberal Democrat Gain from Conservative[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Peter Tyzack LDm 19,865 36.9% + 8.5
Jack LoPresti Con 18,643 34.7% - 0.8
Ian Boulton Lab 9,973 18.5% -15.3
John Knight UKIP 2,400 4.5% + 2.3
David Scott BNP 1,744 3.2% + 3.2
John Lucas Grn 705 1.3% + 1.3
Ruth Johnson ChP 248 0.5% + 0.5
Vote Zero 237 0.4% + 0.4
Majority: 1,216 (2.2%)
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 4.6%DD: Wasn't that a notional three way marginal?
EM: Yes, it was, although it was very close between the Conservatives and Labour with the LibDems a small way behind.
DD: So they have taken it from third?
EM: Yes, they have, if the notionals were correct and this effectively the all new seat in CUBA built from three others.
DD: Cuba?
EM: County that Used to Be Avon
DD: I see.
Easington Labour Hold
DD: Another shock result.
EM: Indeed, the shock being that the Labour is down to only a snip above 10,000.
NK: Bloody Hell.
DD: Lord Kinnock!
NK: Sorry, David, but Easington down to just above 10,000 majority, that's like, Merthyr going Liberal. Unbelievable.
DD: Well, I understand we will be going to City of Durham in a minute for what looks like the second LibDem gain of the night, but Jeremy, any comments about Filton and Bradley Stoke.
JV: Yes, if this is representative of the Bristol Sub-Region, then it may well explain the lack of tweets from Kerry McCarthy for the last 20 minutes. It also might explain why a post on a political website has suggested that Liam Fox is worried about his majority.
North West Durham Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour
DD: Liam Fox, first Oliver Letwin, now ...
NK Raising voice over DD Did you see that, surely that's a mistake, David.
DD: I'm sure it is, Paddy?
PA: No, I'm in the dark about this.
DD: Well, we need to think about going to City of Durham
EM: I've just got confirmation off the AP, David. They are reporting a LibDem Gain.
DD: We will have to see this one. Emily, can you indulge us.
EM: This is stunning.
Code:
North West Durham
Electorate: 70,669
Turnout: 72.01%
[SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrange"]Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Owen Temple LDm 18,109 35.6% +15.7
Pat Glass Lab 17,514 34.4% -19.5
Michelle Tempest Con 7,378 14.5% - 1.9
Watts Sterling UKIP 4,640 7.7% - 2.1
Michael Stewart BNP 3,241 5.2% + 5.2
Majority 595 (1.2%)
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 17.6%FB: I've just had confirmation of this from the local press. Everyone is stunned, Hilary Armstrong is in tears, the winner was barely able to speak he was so shocked.
EM: Well, if anything shows the dire state of the Labour party in parts of its heartlands, it's this result. The seat has been Labour since 1950, it contains Consett, Crook and Tow Law. Whilst the Weardale part has been Liberal at times, the Derwentside section was Labour until very recently. Interestingly enough, the UKIP candidate stood as an Independent last time, but was one of the "strong local Independents" Nigel Farage recruited to UKIP and the BNP have held their deposit on their first outing. This is the worst result for Labour tonight. Jeremy?
JV: Well, it's the worst we've seen so far and it is similar to the other NE safe seats, but
City of Durham Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
unlike the others, people seem to have gone behind the LibDems rather than scattering their vote about. A few more like this and Nick Clegg could be looking at getting into the 90's in terms of seats.
DD: We appear to have missed going to City of Durham in the excitement, but that one was well expected and we will have the result for you soon. Fiona, any other nasty shocks coming up for Labour?
FB: We have heard that Bishop Auckland may be going the same way, but they have only just finished their verification and there's that recount in Darlington. Also, very, very early reports from Newcastle indicate that the LibDems believe that are "doing very nicely".
DD: Have we the other result now, Emily?
EM: Yes, not quite so striking
Code:
Durham, City Of
Electorate: 68,827
Turnout: 76.18%
[SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrange"]Liberal Democrat Gain from Labour[/COLOR][/SIZE]
Carol Woods LDm 24,477 46.7% + 6.9
Roberta Blackman-Woods Lab 19,903 37.9% - 9.3
Nick Varley Con 4,589 8.8% - 0.6
Ralph Musgrave BNP 2,077 4.0% + 4.0
Nigel Coghill UKIP 1,159 2.2% + 2.2
Jon Collings Ind 241 0.5% + 0.5
Majority: 4,573 (8.8%)
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 8.1%EM: Well, this one is more in line with what was expected, this was a LibDem target seat, received lots of resources, has a student population (although somewhat demographically different to many universities) and has a substantial middle class and many better off public sector workers.
JV: The forecast is now starting to move a little bit, there are enough results in to just start doing it and it's showing the LibDems doing a little better than we predicted and Labour doing a little worse, the Tories are about the same. We currently think that the Tories will get 294 seats, the Labour party will get 223 seats and that the Liberal Democrats will get get a stunning 100 seats. We also believe that the Liberal Democrats will get 29% of the vote to Labours 27% of the vote, but those numbers are trending up for the LibDems and down for Labour. The Tories look pretty solid at 33%
DD: I'll go to the panel, but it's 1:45 and a time for a state of the parties update.
State of the Parties: Lab 12, Con 4, LDm 5, PC 2, DUP 2, SF 1, SNP 1, All 1
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It will be very interesting to see if UKIP gets more than 4% or indeed more than 5% of the vote nationally. During last year elections, some twenty to thirty seats may have been lost by the Conservatives because of UKIP, if this gets much bigger this could prompt a major rethink in the party strategy.
As it was last year, a lot of people in the Conservative Party considered the election result very disappointed and laid the blame on the whole "Big Society" agenda. Which no one, candidates included understood. Depending how what exactly caused the Lib Dem surge (my understanding is that Gordon does not apologise for the bigoted comment). This could prompt a drastic rethink in the overall party strategy.
I must say that I really love the passages from Steve Hilton book Ian, the man is certainly capable to write that kind of stuff. Its all about apparences and not about the core substance for him. This mindset failed OTL, it failed even harder TTL.
As it was last year, a lot of people in the Conservative Party considered the election result very disappointed and laid the blame on the whole "Big Society" agenda. Which no one, candidates included understood. Depending how what exactly caused the Lib Dem surge (my understanding is that Gordon does not apologise for the bigoted comment). This could prompt a drastic rethink in the overall party strategy.
I must say that I really love the passages from Steve Hilton book Ian, the man is certainly capable to write that kind of stuff. Its all about apparences and not about the core substance for him. This mindset failed OTL, it failed even harder TTL.
Given the nods to politicalbetting going on, any chance of an update on how Nick Palmer is getting on in Bromsgrove? It's also a Lab/con marginal so should be interesting in its own right...
I shall be out in a couple of hours, but unusually we are ahead of schedule so I only have a couple of roads to do. So I reckon we have a decent chance of getting
a) A LibDem vignette - this morning
b) The Panel Discussion
c) Seats up to 2:00am combined with a "around the regions update"
Then, I'm not so sure, I don't think I'm up to writing a Gordon Brown speech.
No, I went to bed, I will promise you three updates today.
How low can Labour go? Their lowest OTL opinion poll rating was 23% in the GE campaign.
As for seats, the numbers are at the edge of the "tipping point" for three party politics. Originally, I had Labour a little lower than the final figure used, and Teh Crazy took hold. It would be interesting to write up, but beyond my expertise.
Not that much number-crunching, the most time consuming bits are actually formatting the results, which is why I'm beginning to regret my promise of a full result for every changed seat.
As I said, I started playing with this back at the start of January in order to kill some time on a daytime flight back from Singapore. I used UK-Elect to generate base numbers on a ratio-swing basis with a small amount of anti-Labour tactical voting, these went into Excel and were adjusted by the difference between OTL swing and the UK-Elect swing so that local factors could play their part.
I then adjusted turnouts on a ratio basis but not a percentage basis.
I then gave UKIP a candidate in every seat (not many extra needed), allocating their vote from other on the basis of the BES. In some cases UKIP recruited a local independent.
I then combined the EDm's and the BNP (which in the light of various events this week looks more justifiable than before), some areas the EDm revolts against this and stands as an Indy or puts his weight behind UKIP. This actually had feck all effect really apart from about 10 saved deposits.
I then recruited some extra Green candidates and some extra "Others" candidates where Greens, Trots and Christians had stood in 2005 or 2001 but failed to stand again. In the case of the Greens, I used BES for apportionment, in the case of the Trots - Lab, Green, non-voters, in the case of the Christians I just adjusted the turnout. Again, this meddling had remarkably little effect, but it amused me.
This was all part of the "debates" backstory which in the end I didn't develop. I know what happened, trust me - actually don't, I'm a politician.
Then there were the direct adjustments, I specifically looked at four groups.
1) Pensioners on Pension Credit. A number of these left Labour, they were allocated LDm, UKIP/BNP, perceived challenger to Lab. As one of the most reliable voting groups, this had no turnout effect. Data taken from Parliamentary Library.
2) Young People - their turnout was increased, particularly amongst students, they were allocated LDm (massively), Green, perceived challenger for students. LDm, UKIP/BNP, perceived challenger for NEETS. Some of the NEETS adjustments were taken away if the seat featured in section 4. Data taken from Parliamentary Library for NEETS and from HESA for Student Residence by Constituency.
3) Single Mums on Benefits. Turnout increased slightly based on the adoption of a campaigning technique used in some Birmingham seats (despite "Gulags for Slags" - mainly Lab, but some BNP). Numbers sort of retrofitted from Department for Health Stats and Benefit States. Not convinced, but as the biggest change was 1.2% to turnout - not bother.
4) BAME voters - numbers taken from Census and OBV figures (which are a bit shonky), only applied to Core Cities and London. Trust me, your average BAME voter in Sutton Coldfield is as "considerably richer than yow" as his gora counterparts. This was Labour all the way (with a handful of special cases mainly for some of the Nits odder candidates), but a fairly small effect.
All in all, once I'd located some of the data (and I had some of it to hand anyway), it didn't take that long.
As I said, yours was the inspiration to actually do this, but I think mine is different in the way it is more election centred.
Meanwhile at Cowley Street
from Clear Yellow Water - Helen Duffett
North West Durham shocked us to the core, it was well outside even the "Moving Forward seats" and they had told us and we had ignored it. Even Mark had a "WTF" look on his face.
I'd been told that my count at Romford was looking more like 05:30, so I arranged with Mark to do an extra hour until 3am here. The less time spent in the same hall as Rosindell, the better.
Mark ordered a contact email to be sent to a group called "Tranche 5" which basically said, check in now. By 2am, most had replied and we sought other ways to contact the remainder. It revealed some very good results for us, but most didn't think they would win. However, we sent them on to Paddy and to Ros Scott to watch out for, Ros was scheduled to take over from Paddy at 2am.
Patterns were starting to shape up by then, we were clearly doing very well in the North East and in the Greater Bristol area. We were getting good calls from most of our targets and quite a lot of our "Moving Forward" seats. We'd had the "all clear" from Harrogate and positive noises from Newton Abbot. So we were down to three held seats to worry about. Sandra had told us it was close, Hereford thought it was 50/50 and Lembit was in radio silence (a blessed relief).
A lot of people were ringing in with good solid low 30% scores in Home Counties seats over the Tories and they were saying that UKIP were usually holding their deposit. Other seats against the Tories were mixed, some were looking good, some were looking awful, but we'd beaten Letwin and there were cautious reports we had bagged Lansley as well.
Paddy always wanted to know about West Country seats, unfortunately they are quite slow counters and all we could really say was that we were still in contention in a number of them. We spent some time on edge about Yeovil, but David had reassured us quite early.
On the other hand, a lot of reports from the North West were not very promising at all, Liverpool was quite dire. However, just before 2am, Mark emerged from his room and said that he projected "well" over 100 seats and that we would get at least 10% of the vote in every mainland seats.
from Clear Yellow Water - Helen Duffett
North West Durham shocked us to the core, it was well outside even the "Moving Forward seats" and they had told us and we had ignored it. Even Mark had a "WTF" look on his face.
I'd been told that my count at Romford was looking more like 05:30, so I arranged with Mark to do an extra hour until 3am here. The less time spent in the same hall as Rosindell, the better.
Mark ordered a contact email to be sent to a group called "Tranche 5" which basically said, check in now. By 2am, most had replied and we sought other ways to contact the remainder. It revealed some very good results for us, but most didn't think they would win. However, we sent them on to Paddy and to Ros Scott to watch out for, Ros was scheduled to take over from Paddy at 2am.
Patterns were starting to shape up by then, we were clearly doing very well in the North East and in the Greater Bristol area. We were getting good calls from most of our targets and quite a lot of our "Moving Forward" seats. We'd had the "all clear" from Harrogate and positive noises from Newton Abbot. So we were down to three held seats to worry about. Sandra had told us it was close, Hereford thought it was 50/50 and Lembit was in radio silence (a blessed relief).
A lot of people were ringing in with good solid low 30% scores in Home Counties seats over the Tories and they were saying that UKIP were usually holding their deposit. Other seats against the Tories were mixed, some were looking good, some were looking awful, but we'd beaten Letwin and there were cautious reports we had bagged Lansley as well.
Paddy always wanted to know about West Country seats, unfortunately they are quite slow counters and all we could really say was that we were still in contention in a number of them. We spent some time on edge about Yeovil, but David had reassured us quite early.
On the other hand, a lot of reports from the North West were not very promising at all, Liverpool was quite dire. However, just before 2am, Mark emerged from his room and said that he projected "well" over 100 seats and that we would get at least 10% of the vote in every mainland seats.
Excellent timeline so far. I don't envy you having to write up 650 constituency by constituency results. Can I also put in a request for Oxford West and Abbingdon: I really want to see Evan Harris stay seated.
Well over 100 Lib Dem seats? Crikey. Is most of the pro-Liberal swing against Labour, or is impacting badly upon both of the major parties?
Looking forward to the next two bits of today...
Looking forward to the next two bits of today...
- Status