Were you still up for Balls?

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I'm not sure Sky would have been so coy as the BBC but they weren't really in the game back in 1992.

Two very good updates and clearly there's a lot going to be happening in a very short time.

The figures look to be going in an interesting direction but I await the first Conservative-Lib Dem marginal with interest !

Do you mean a Con-LDm marginal or a LDm-Con marginal. Both Filton and Bradley Stoke and Guildford will be in the first fifty seats declared.

I will be putting quite a few results in detail over the "count" period, especially the more interesting ones, but if anyone has any requests - make them now.
 
I will be putting quite a few results in detail over the "count" period, especially the more interesting ones, but if anyone has any requests - make them now.

In a completely shameless interest in how my own seat does, can I request Wallasey please?
 

Fletch

Kicked
In a completely shameless interest in how my own seat does, can I request Wallasey please?
Ditto myself, if you could do either Dundee West or Dundee East I would be grateful..Thanks. (I live in Dundee East but am moving to Dundee West)
 
The Dregs of the 6th

The NIA, Birmingham

The Deputy Returning Officer was already considering his resignation letter on Monday morning. Allah had not smiled upon him and the mistakes were mounting up.

To start with, there had been a mistake with the security instructions and most of the counters had spent some time being held up from getting to their counts because they had to get through a zone they weren't allowed in to get to them. Only those with Chief Agent or Deputy Chief Agent had been able to get through, the result - an almighty bollocking from all three major party leaders - all of which had a bite worse than their bark and none of which particularly cared for him.

Then they had found out about the postal verifications, to be fair, the Tories were fairly easy about it, but the Liberals and Labour had gone beserk as had Cllr Yacoob, which surprised him as she'd always been so nice to him. The result was that he'd agreed to start the verification again from scratch in three seats where there were a lot of postal votes.

Then, of course, some bright spark in Edgbaston faced with an enormous turnout in his box had used a black dustbin bag as an extra ballot box, because it was full. Result, a full on handbagging from the Tory candidate - which as council veterans knew was an unpleasant and somewhat shrill experience.

Most people had taken the BNP turning up to the Yardley count in their strides, but some of them were as tired and emotional as a newt and acted like it. Eventually, he'd had the more drunken ones removed from the counting area for harassing the staff.

He'd then had to deal with a missing ballot box from a polling station in Aston (Birmingham Ladywood). Several calls to the Presiding Officer had not worked and he feared a repeat of an incident when a Presiding Officer had "taken the box home whilst he had his tea" from a few years ago. It had finally arrived with a police escort, for which the reason had become apparent. It seems a gentleman had turned up with an bag with around 300 filled out postal votes in it at 9:55, the Presiding Officer had called the police (the DDO didn't know whether to shoot him or hug him over that) and the Police had been to get an order to declare these votes as possible evidence. That had caused another Labour/Liberal row and then a stand up shouting match between a Labour councillor and the Labour leader. Those votes were now being verified by a team of his counters, the political parties and two Detective Inspectors. He had quickly ordered the numbers of votes in the "postal bag" for each of the polling districts in four seats to be brought to him.

Now everything was finally running reasonably smoothly, but he doubted if he'd get a result for any seat before 2am. Mind you, the turnout was up, even Ladywood had managed 67.7% with the ever pestilential Hall Green being 75.5%.

BBC Studio, 11:35pm

DD: So, Emily, any news from the counts yet.

Emily Maitlis: Well, David, we are starting to get some more turnout figures from seats and it does look as if turnout is up by around 10% in most seats. We are hearing 76% in East Kilbride, 78% in Kingswood, 77% in Putney, 78% in Filton and Bradley Stoke - which is a rare three way marginal on paper and 71% in Tony Blairs old seat of Sedgefield.

DD: So a high turnout, which means a long evening.

Emily: Yes it certainly does, we are hearing from all over that turnout has been strong and that count centres are taking a lot longer over the verification which is why also there are so few rumours. Lord Ashdown will probably not be surprised by reports of a monster turnout in Yeovil and we are hearing also that Guildford, a critical marginal which normally declares early also has a very high turnout

DD: So possibly a very long evening in Guildford. How about any news

Emily: Well, with very few seats having completed verification so far, never mind reached the count, there's still not a lot of news. The Tories are claiming Battersea and quite confident about Kingswood. Plaid Cymru sources say that Ynys Mon is in their sights, but their hopes of regaining Ceredigion from the LibDems are almost zero. The LibDems say that Filton and Bradley Stoke looks like a two horse race and they are "increasingly confident" about City of Durham. Very little else except some very strange rumours on Twitter. But as I say, very early days, we may here more when the verifications are more complete in some seats

DD: Jeremy, does this turnout effect the exit poll.

Jeremy Vine: Well, quite probably David. We've now had some figures from the British Election Study, which is a very, very large exit poll taken for academic research. They haven't done their party data yet, because it's a study, has a number of different purposes and doesn't do that. What we have received is some socio-economic data and that indicates a moderate increase in pensioners voting who are in receipt of Pension Credit, a huge increase in young people under 30 voting and a small increase in votes by women under 35 receiving Child Tax Credits. It also hints at a turnout in the 73% area overall. This makes our poll somewhat more unreliable as it is skewed towards a smaller turnout and different groupings

DD: So, the poll is wrong?

Jeremy: No, but it has a higher probability of being incorrect with the higher turnout. It may well still be correct, in fact, it probably is, but we will need more results to confirm it and obviously, as more results come in, we will be able to constantly alter the prediction. But at the moment - we are staying with Conservative 33, Liberal Democrat 28 and Labour 28, which will mean that the Conservatives are the largest party but 40 or so short of a majority and a substantial increase in the number of Liberal Democrats.

DD; Thank you, Jeremy now over to Jeremy Paxman who is talking with Alistair Darling in Edinburgh.

from Clear Yellow Water - Helen Duffett

Whilst I was the somewhat pressganged PPC for Romford, our count wasn't expected to declare until about 4am; so I volunteered to be part of the Agents Phone Line at Cowley Street until 2am. The idea was that the agent rang in as soon as either things were obvious or the validation had finished with a brief summary and we would filter it through Mark to pass on to the people on TV, Nick, Vince and other key people.

The number is issued to every PPC and their agent, so there is a certain amount of "it looks very good in Cozyshire and the Boondocks" which turns out in the end to be a small pile of fetid dingo's kidneys. The other problem is that many agents/PPC's are councillors, so you end up with protracted conversations about which council wards may have been won on the back of this - usually with a tone which indicates that it's vitally important for Nick to know that we only got 12% in Doleborough and Redundaford, but we have a chance in the ward of Stagnant West.

Mark had pretty much laid down what he expected. There were only five held seats left on the "Danger List" - Montgomery, Newton Abbot, Romsey and Southampton North, South Herefordshire and Harrogate and Knaresborough. There were about ten seats we were certain of gaining, another ten where we thought we had a good chance and about twenty where, well, if the wind blew in the right direction... They were the ones we really wanted to hear from.

Unfortunately for our nerves, by midnight, we'd heard from very few. We knew it was close in Filton and Bradley Stoke, we knew we had taken City of Durham, we knew we had held Thornbury and Yate, Torbay, North East Fife and Yeovil (although David didn't sound too happy about his result) and we knew we hadn't won Newbury but that was about it from seats on the list.

However, we had also heard from other seats who were reporting that they hadn't won, but they had done very well. North Durham reckoned they might get 30%, Sedgefield had told us Labour had collapsed and they were a decent second. Don Valley had told us that it was a three way race and they hadn't got a clue - we put them down as being drunk.

There was an ominous radio silence from Guildford, which we hoped would declare early, sufficiently so that Mark sent an email just before midnight, and we had hope to hear more from Wrexham which was on the third list than "high turnout, count going slowly".

The two most interesting emails/calls of the 6th arrived just before Midnight. One was a call from North West Durham - in which an over excited candidate claimed that it was very close and that he thought he was ahead. The other was a one word email from Newport East "Gain".

Mark passed that one on pretty quickly, but quite rightly ignored the North West Durham one. However, he did share a view of a tweet from the dreaded Kerry McCarthy that he'd picked up "not happy with all Bristol seats, but am sure we will pull through." I was asked to email all Bristol agents/candidates immediately.
 
The Midnight Hour

BBC Election Night

DD; Well, Lord Ashdown, I think that we all seem to have different viewpoints on the voting system and what changes have should or shouldn't be made to it; but we appear to have a second result from Sunderland. Emily?

Emily: Yes, Labour have held Sunderland Central, but with another big swing against them. Sunderland Central is another new seat, so the previous result is notional. This seat was regarded as a Tory long-shot, but only when their poll ratings were a lot better.

Code:
Sunderland Central
Electorate: 74,496
Turnout: 71.00%

[COLOR="Red"] Labour Hold[/COLOR]
 
Julie Elliot              Lab     19,560    37.0%   -13.0
Paul Dixon                LDm     13,731    26.0%   + 9.8
Lee Martin                Con     13,678    25.9%   + 1.4
John McCaffery            BNP      3,046     6.9%   + 3.8
Pauline Fentonby-Warren   UKIP     2,269     4.3%   + 4.3
 
Majority: 5,829 (11.0%)
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 10.9%

Emily: Well, that's another big swing against Labour there, another saved deposit for the BNP and another leapfrog by the LibDems over the Tories. I would go over to Jeremy, but we are now getting the final of the three seats counting in Sunderland which is the safest for Labour of the three and another new seat - Washington and Sunderland West, which is another Labour hold.

Code:
Washington and Sunderland West
Electorate: 68,907
Turnout: 66.18%

[COLOR="red"]Labour Hold[/COLOR]
 
Sharon Hodgson*  Lab   20,836   45.7%   -23.0
Peter Andras     LDm   12,463   27.3%   +11.1
Ian Cuthbert     Con    7,447   16.3%   + 1.4
Ian McDonald     BNP    3,046    6.7%   + 6.7
Linda Hudson     UKIP   1,512    4.3%   + 4.3
 
Majority: 8,373 (18.4%)
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat 17.0%

Again, very similar to the previous result, Liberal Democrats benefiting athe expense of Labour. Very high swing from Labour here, possibly because of the first time intervention of a BNP candidate who has held his deposit. Sharon Hodgson, who is an assistant whip was previously the MP for Gateshead East and Washington West and has followed the smaller part of her seat here.

DD: So three seats declared, three Labour holds, is the picture getting clearer Jeremy?

Jeremy Vine: Well, David, I think we can say we now know the picture for Wearside. I don't think it alters anything, but if the trend keeps up, then Labour may be making bigger voteshare losses in the safe seats than the marginal - which may be good for them in the more distant marginals that the Tories need to capture to form a government.

DD: Does it do anything for the Liberal Democrats

Jeremy: I don't think we can tell from these three isolated results, but it may well mean that the Liberals do better against Labour than we thought. Three BNP saved deposits, probably doesn't mean much either, except that the BNP may save quite a lot of deposits tonight - especially in Safe Labour Seats.

DD: Emily, any other news coming through.

Emily: Well, David, not a lot, we hear that Tooting is very close as is Gedling, we understand Labour are saying they have gained Blaenau Gwent which was of course taken by an Independent last time and that the Tories are claiming Castle Point from Bob Spink who is an Independent backed by UKIP. We also understand that Gordon Brown has comfortably held his seat and will almost certainly be the first of the party leaders to make a speech

DD: So when can we expect the next seat, Jeremy

Jeremy: We think the race is now on between Thornbury and Yate and Arfon, both of which are fairly safe seats but hope to declare in the next forty minutes or so. We are getting a feeling that there will be more results between 1am and 2am and then it will really speed up

DD: So I'll be in bed for 4am, then Smiles

Jeremy: It's very difficult to tell, David, things are going very slowly, but we are now expecting about 400 seats in by 4am.
 
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Thanks for the comments Gents. I have marked all your seats down for a result in full and I may even do an OB in the case of Bath.

Tonight I hope to do the "chatter post" which will take us to 1am and will include another result - although a fairly boring one.

For the rest of election night, I'm going to have a two strand approach. There will be a "chatter" post using one of the sources already used - and the BBC stream. The BBC stream will cover periods of varying time depending on the how hectic the results stream is, it will include the "headline result" for every seat and selected full results in the format already used and the odd OB for important or interesting speeches.

So the end of Saturday should see us up to 1:30 and 16 seats declared :D

Still time for more nominations.
 
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I am very much enjoying this TL. Judging from its title I guess that Ed Balls will lose Morley and Outwood. I would like to put in a request for Birmingham, Edgbaston (if that is not going to be done), Montgomeryshire (Lembit Opik's seat) and Westminster, North.
 
I am very much enjoying this TL. Judging from its title I guess that Ed Balls will lose Morley and Outwood. I would like to put in a request for Birmingham, Edgbaston (if that is not going to be done), Montgomeryshire (Lembit Opik's seat) and Westminster, North.

Ah, someone remembers the book I was referencing in the title. :D

Edgbaston will be done, all Birmingham seats will be done except for Sutton Coldfield (because the count for that was held at Sutton Coldfield Town Hall rather than in NIA). I will do Solihull as well, and probably Meriden because it gives me a chance to feature Nikki Sinclaire - who is, errrm, interesting and having met her a couple of times in real life completely hatstand (but pleasant for a uKipper).

Montgomeryshire will be done and I shall add Westminster North to the list, it gets a mention in the next update anyway.
 
7th May, heading up towards 1pm

from SpAD Confidential - Imogen Edwards Jones and Anonymous

Being fairly lowly on the SpAD pecking order, a combination of a useless minister and some unpopularity with the Powers That Be. I ended up with a choice of the Prescott Battle-Bus or the "Internet Intervention Unit". I didn't fancy four weeks with Two Jags looking for people to punch and finding excuses to end up somewhere near Doncaster every night. So I took the latter option.

There was a small group of us and our job was to "astroturf" various web sites, we had great fun, one of our best stunts was to give the Clegg a really hot time on Mumsnet - where basically at least six of the people questioning him were in our little office. My best creation was a slightly dim Scouse wine merchant on a politics site who annoyed the shite out of all the regulars, he got so popular that there were three of us running shifts on him.

We also had to make sure that Labour blogs had lots of positive comments, to try and calm down some of the Progress-Compass wars that occasionally broke out and to monitor Twitter, mainly to make sure that our so called Twitter Tsarina wasn't being a total mong - a difficult job. Some people think we invented Twitter accounts that were perhaps a bit too loyal to Labour, but I assure you BevaniteEllie is real and a greater devotion to her political heroes you'll not find outside North Korea. We also did tweeting for the large number of MP's who find turning on their Crackberry's difficult. It's bloody hard pretending to be Khalid Mahmood. We didn't pay much attention to Facebook, a big mistake and we allowed far, far too much information to be on #labourdoorstep.

Anyway, we were all herded out of our office on Election Day about lunchtime, the lucky ones got bussed to Holborn and St Pancras, the moderately unlucky ones got bussed to Westminster North and some went to Bethnal Green and Bow and we never saw them again. It seems Karen Buck was panicking like a spastic in a magnet factory and the Victoria Street Bunker wanted her back in at all costs. I ended up with a knock-up team being run by some prissy councillor who looked like he'd cornered the market in pocket-protectors, but he knew his stuff, he knew his ward and we got them out.

I was about to piss off home and enjoy the fun, when I got dragooned back to the office in order monitor Twitter for count information to be relayed directly for The Lying Scotsman. Mind you, he did give us Geoff Hoon's credit card so we could get delivery food and booze in. He said Geoff won't be needing it for a while, when we asked where Geoff was - he pointed to the boot of the car.

Anyway, it was all very quiet for a while, Ellie nearly had a breakdown over the exit poll, Kerry was very quiet and even Mrs Bercow wasn't telling us of her previous sexual adventures. So we went back to astroturfing for a while, I did politicalhedging and my mate did ConservativeHomeland (which is like shooting fish in a barrel, just pretend to be a uKipper). However, as it went past midnight, the tweets from the counts started to turn all rather tits-up. There weren't that many, a lot of Returning Officers went all very Stalinist about tweeting from the count, but the ones that were coming through really weren't good. It seemed we had lost a pile of seats in the Midlands and the North

My favourite of the night was from the Czarina of Twitter herself Half the boxes open, Liberals ahead #briseast #kerrytowin - we roared at that one, the only thing to have beaten it would have been a full on MadNad special. After that, we just started to get drunk.

The NIA, Birmingham

The Councillor was already feeling tired, he'd been up since 5am. The count was going slowly and some of the counters were playing "hide the ballot paper". He was particularly fed up of saying "Face up, please" every few minutes to two particular dork-brains who seemed to think that it was their bounden duty to hide ballots from scrutiny. Luckily, his Labour shadow was equally annoyed and diligent, there was no sign of the Tories and the one remaining BNP had gone to sleep in a corner.

He wasn't unpleased by what he saw. Hemming was looking at around 1,500 majority out of his ward, the Tories looked like they might be third instead of the BNP and the turnout was about 60%. He had spent months fearing a General Election turnout, but he knew from the doorstep he was a bit more popular than John.

As there was a break between ballot boxes, he collected numbers from the others, added them into the sheet and then went to check with the Fat Man whose considered opinion was that we should all piss off to the pub for a couple of hours until the declaration.

The problem was the break between ballot boxes, they were all here, he'd checked that, but they seemed to spend 10 minutes or so before bringing the next pair out. He checked his illicitly turned on mobile for texts from a friend who was giving him results from the BBC, still fuck all on there.

Various bits of gossip filtered around the hall. Northfield was close, Hodge Hill wasn't close and the Lib Dem candidate had already fucked off home. Perry Barr was closer than had been thought, but Khalid would still be able to annoy his constituents for four years. Hall Green and Ladywood had got off to a very slow start, the ADRO hadn't allowed a single vote to be verified until the last box was in and there had been a massive row about postals. He'd heard nothing about Selly Oak and Edgbaston and frankly didn't care much even if his fellow ward councillor was the LibDem candidate for Edgbaston.

The next box then turned up, Yarnfield School, this could knock the majority down a bit, but the turnout would be dire. He need a fag, he might be able to slip out for one after verification finished.

BBC Election Night special

David Dimbleby (for it is he): Well, as we wait for more results to go in, I'll give our panel a quick break and we'll go around our presenters in the nations and the regions to get their impressions. First to Edinburgh with Jackie Bird.

Jackie: Thank you, David, and welcome to Edinburgh for your first visit on what looks like a fairly quiet election night in Scotland. Initial impressions are that there is no swing away from Labour on the English scale here. Obviously the LibDems will be watching Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South very closely, Labour will be looking to regain their by-election losses in Fife and Glasgow and the SNP will be looking to see if they can match their Holyrood breakthrough. Conservative prospects are dim, they will just want to improve their position and hold on to David Mundell.

It does look like a big turnout night tonight, with several Central belt seats reporting turnouts in the low 70's. Very few reports have come in of anything but the usual massive majorities for Labour in the Central Belt, although we have been told that Eric Joyce in Falkirk has suffered a big swing against him but is expected to hold on. The first big result in Scotland will be Gordon Brown's and it is expected in about an hour or so.

DD: Well, thanks for that summary and we hope to be back in Auld Reekie just before 2pm. We now move to Huw Edwards in Cardiff. Huw.

Huw Edwards: Nos da, David and it already looks like a long night here in Cardiff. The standard list of Welsh battlegrounds looks like it's been torn up tonight by the Liberal Democrats, who appear to be the main beneficiaries of a poor night for Labour. We are already hearing that the LibDems are in a very good position in both Wrexham and Newport East and Labour sources have confirmed the former but not the latter, but we were told by Rodney Berman that the real shocks will come later. The Plaid also have their dander up, they are claiming Ynys Mon as a gain from Labour with a "substantial" majority, they also say that Llanelli looks close but it's a bit early to tell. The Tories are also saying that it's early, but feel that they have a good chance of coming away with more seats tonight. On the bright side for Labour, we are told they will regain Blaenau Gwent tonight from People's Voice.

DD: So substantial change in Wales then?

Huw: Well, that's what we are being told, but we will have to wait and see. We are expecting half a dozen seats to declare within the next hour or so. Arfon within the next half hour, but that will be a Plaid.

DD: Thank you, Huw, over to Caroline Quinn in London

Caroline: It looks like a very long night here in London, several seats got off to a very late start with polls not closing until nearly 10:40 in a couple of locations. The counts are generally preceding slowly and several seats have already put back their estimates by an hour. We are expecting to hear from the three Wandsworth seats fairly quickly, probably within the next hour or so, but then we have a long, long fallow spell before anything else is due. Of course, the local elections are being counted as well, in some places tomorrow, but in some cases parallel when the verification is complete. As for the Wandsworth seats, Labour have pretty much conceded Battersea to the Tories and both Tooting and Putney are expected to remain with their various parties. Other than that, there is very little news.

DD: Thank you Caroline, the exit poll suggested that there would be a lower swing away from Labour than in much of the rest of the country. Any sign of that.

Caroline: Well, David, as I said, there is very little coming out of the counts at the moment, we may well know more at your next visit. We have been told that the Battersea result will have a large Tory majority when it comes up, but it was one of the most marginal seats.

DD: Well, I hope you'll have more information when we return at 2am. Now over to Belfast.


from Eton Rifles - Steve Hilton

One of the most tedious bits about the election is the actual count, why we can't get the voting over and done with and then just wake up in the morning to the results, I don't know.

My job on election night was to feed out people at the BBC and Sky with messages via their Blackberries. To help the team out with providing inspirational and positive messages to project the modern brand Cameron, I'd got four advisors - one of which was relaying the messages, two of which was studying the shows and one of which was checking out the messages with a focus group.

Unfortunately, the only sort of focus group you can get late on a Thursday night consists of wannabe SpAD's, Dot Cotton's less glamourous sister, a couple of White Van Men (who want Stella) and Edna the Inebriate Woman. So I stuck with the SpAD's wannabes and I'll be frank - they weren't helpful. Even I can spot mickey-taking going on when they came up with the idea that there should be a grand coalition to shut the Liberals out.

Now Michael Howard was being lovely at Sky and was getting them to eat out of his hand, he didn't need much guidance, nor did he constantly demand election results or tidbits of news. The other Michael was much less helpful, whilst putting out a very modernising message, it wasn't fully chiming in with the new direction of the party and there were a couple of disturbing references to She Who We Do Not Name except in the company of Daily Mail journalists. However, I fed him a few gobbets about promising counts in Leicestershire and he chilled out a bit. I didn't mention about Letwin, I didn't know if they were friends or not.

BBC Election Night, 00:50am

Recount in Darlington

DD: I was beginning to wonder if the computers had crashed and we were going to sit here tonight without any results, but it seems we have something even if it isn't a result. Jeremy?

JV (looking a bit flustered): Well, Alan Milburn has stood down,but with a repeat of even of the swings we've seen so far, I can't see this one changing hands. It may be a recount for a deposit for one of the smaller parties. We will see what we can find out.

DD: Well, I was hoping something exciting would have happened. Emily, is there any more news coming out of the counts?

EM: Well to back up a report from Huw earlier, we are also hearing that it is very tight in Llanelli, also that Tooting is not looking as safe for Labour as earlier. Ken Clarke we are told is coasting to victory in Rushcliffe and we are told that Guildford looks like it may just stay Tory, but could be recount territory. The Tories are claiming victory in Stafford and the LibDems in Eastbourne.

DD: I understand that on another channel which is "calling" the results, they have just declare Willie Rennie's by-election seat as a LibDem hold.

EM: David, we don't call seats like that other channel, although we do report news from the parties, especially when confirmed by other sources. We haven't got much information from that seat yet.

DD: Well, Lord Ashdown, Eastbourne, how does that feel?

Paddy: Well, we've held Eastbourne before after a by-election and we've always been competitive there. The sitting MP has made a number of mistakes and our candidate was well tipped to win.

DD: I must interrupt you there as we have a result from Arfon, quite a small constituency, so no surprises for an early declaration.

Code:
Arfon
Electorate: 41,197
Turnout: 71.31%

[COLOR="SeaGreen"][SIZE="5"][B]PLAID CYMRU GAIN FROM LABOUR[/B][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Hywel Williams* PC    10,997   37.4%   + 4.4
Alun Pugh       Lab    7,267   24.7%   - 9.2
Sarah Green     LDm    6,882   23.4%   + 7.9
Robin Millar    Con    3,440   11.7%   - 4.7
Elwyn Williams  UKIP     808    2.7%   + 0.8

Majority: 3,710 (12.7%)
Swing: Labour to Plaid Cymru 6.8%

JV: Well, this will be regarded by some as a Plaid Cymru gain from Labour and by others as a Plaid Cymru hold, the notionals were that close and the two sets differed in their interpretation. However, the set of notional results we are using have it has a Labour seat. A widely predicted gain for Plaid Cymru here where they have the advantage of partial incumbency for Hywel Williams. The swings much lower than in the previous seats, but this is a very different seat to most of the ones in the UK.

1AM - State of the Parties: Lab 3 PC 1
 
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Westmorland and Lonsdale was being done anyway. Barrow added to list.
Cheers! Did wonder about Westmorland, given it being Tim Collins' seat, and the huge swing to him in 2010. Think Collins is positioning himself for the leadership now, with Clegg ultimately on borrowed time (IMO).
 
It looks like the Lib Dems are eating into the Conservative vote a fair bit, this does not look good in the South West. As it was Wells and Chippenham (notional Con) were lost OTL and by the look of things this will be the case here too and with possibly largish majorities for the Lib Dems.
North East Somerset is a very long shot for the Lib Dems but it could work if Labour really made a mess of things. At the very least I can see them pushed into the third place there.

I imagine that Kingswood will be a Conservative win as per OTL, which is good since Chris Skidmore is a good guy

I can see Labour losing its deposit in Taunton Deane, and maybe UKIP increasing its share enough so that they save their own.

Looks like the entire West Country will become a Conservative-Lib Dem battleground following this election, on an even larger scale than what happened OTL.
 
BBC results thread: 1am-1:20am

BBC Election Night

DD: Thank you Fiona those bits of news in the world that don't involve elections. Emily, I understand we have another result.

EM: Yes, David, Thornbury and Yate has declared, this is part of the old Northavon seat and regarded as very safe for Steve Webb of the LibDems

Code:
Thornbury and Yate
Electorate: 64,130
Turnout: 84.2%

[SIZE="4"][COLOR="DarkOrange"]Liberal Democrat Hold[/COLOR][/SIZE]

Steve Webb*       LDm    29,931   55.4     + 1.1
Matthew Riddle    Con    17,711   32.8     + 1.9
Jenny Knight      UKIP    3,159    5.8     + 4.1
Roxanne Egan      Lab     2,586    4.8     - 7.0
Alan Pinder       Grn       351    0.6     - 0.3
Thomas Beacham    Ind       189    0.3     + 0.1
Anthony Clements  Ind        70    0.1     + 0.1

Majority: 12,220 (22.6%)
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 0.4%

Emily: Some interesting things there, obviously a safe retention for Steve Webb, who is very popular in his seat, however, a very small swing to the Conservatives from the LibDems in this commuter belt seat. That's interesting but this is a seat where there isn't much to squeeze any more. A good result for UKIP moving into third and holding their deposit and Labour down to their core vote and losing their deposit. Not brilliant for the Greens, but this was one of those seats where they put up a candidate at the last minute to try to make the debate threshold. Any comments, Jeremy.

Jeremy: Well, Thornbury and Yate is a new seat with a notional result, but there's not much sign of Cleggasm there. We will need to look at more results, but it may be that where the LibDems have already squeezed Labour very hard, there isn't that much room for them to go - whilst they may be losing some voters to the Tories. It's all about the churn at the edges. The minor parties results are in line with what we are starting to hear, the Greens are doing very poorly except in a few seats where they are doing very well - this probably represents their strategy which as been described as "Brighton or Bust" to me. UKIP are supposedly doing well in the South and rural seats, whilst the BNP are doing well in the North and in white urban seats.

Emily: And we have another result

DD: The logjam is broken at last.

Code:
North Durham

Electorate: 67,602
Turnout: 70.64%

[SIZE="4"][COLOR="Red"]Labour Hold[/COLOR][/SIZE]

Kevan Jones*   Lab   20,069   42.1%  -22.0
Ian Lindley    LDm   15,082   31.6%  +12.5
David Skelton  Con    7,183   15.0%  - 1.7
Peter Molloy   BNP    2,921    6.1%  + 6.1
Bruce Reid     UKIP   2,472    5.2%  + 5.2

Majority: 4,987 (10.5%)
Swing: Labour to Liberal Democrat: 17.2%

Emily: Kevan Jones is re-elected there, but that's another big swing away from Labour in a safe seat and both the BNP and UKIP saving their deposit. Turnout back towards 1997 level as well.

Jeremy: If this is a pattern of huge swings in safe Labour seats in the North, then Labour had better be worried as on these sort of swings, we could get some very odd results. Notice it's not a straight swing to the LibDems, but there's deposit saving votes for both the BNP and UKIP. UKIP were running at 4% in the exit poll and, of course, they are contesting every seat in the country. It will be interesting to see what happens in Newcastle upon Tyne from these figures.

David: Very interesting, but we need marginals. We understand we have a ten minutes before we go to the OB at Torbay, so let's talk to the politicians, who are starting to get forecasts on their Blackberry's of other seats. Michael, what do you think so far.

Michael Portillo: Well, I've turned my Blackberry off, David.

David: Oh, a new media strategy?

Michael: Yes, the new media strategy is to ignore the new media strategy.

Laughter

However, it does seem to be emerging that this is a very poor night for Labour from what we have seen and what I've been hearing before I turned the damn thing off. However, I think the key point is that the party has changed in many ways for the good, but hasn't quite convinced key parts of the electorate that it has changed and has convinced others that it has changed too much.

David: So you are saying modernization is bad?

MP: No, I've been convinced of the need for modernization since 1997 and Michael Howard took some steps towards that and David Cameron has changed the face of the party. No other party has the diversity of our candidates in safe seats, no other party has moved so quickly to deal with outdated perceptions of what a candidate should be. Labour have made great strides forward with women, but their BME candidates are confined to their safer seats or their hopeless seats. The Liberal Democrats will even if they make 20 gains be still be hopelessly white, male and middle class. The change of our messages on welfare and on the environment are key, but until very recently we have sounded too much like New Labour on the economy where Vince Cable has also until very recently dominated. On Europe and Immigration we have kept almost a radio silence, now we have decent fair policies in both areas, but the lack of presentation of them has led to this rise in votes for unpalatable parties who are unafraid to present their policies.

Labour hold East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

DD: That's very interesting, Michael, but can the two mix, can both wings be placated.

MP: Well, that is a dichotomy. Certainly things can be said about Europe, without affecting the balance, but Immigration is sensitive and tricky. However, the prime fault is on the economy, until recently

DD: I'll just interrupt you Michael to get a detailed result and you'll like this one - it's the first Conservative gain of the evening.

MP: Good, may there be many more

Code:
Kingswood
Electorate: 66,532
Turnout: 78.26%

[SIZE="4"][COLOR="Teal"]Conservative Gain from Labour[/COLOR][/SIZE]

Chris Skidmore   Con   18,124   34.9%   + 2.8
Roger Berry*     Lab   15,135   29.2%   -16.7 
Sally Fitzharris LDm   12,515   24.1%   + 6.1
Neil Dowdney     UKIP   2,646    5.1%   + 2.7
Michael Carey    BNP    2,397    4.6%   + 4.6
Nick Foster      Grn      773    1.5%   + 1.5
Michael Blundell Ind      296    0.6%   + 0.6

Majority: 2,989 (5.7%)
Swing: Labour to Conservative 9.7%

Emily: Our first real marginal, although it has lost the edges of Bristol proper it had previously and some territory to the new seat of Filton and Bradley Stoke. It was expected to go Conservative and it has and it has swung away from Labour only a little less than the Northern seats we have been seeing, the turnout increase is smaller as well. Chris Skidmore will be pleased to win, but probably less pleased with the size of the majority. I understand he was hoping for about 5,000. Any comments, Jeremy.

Jeremy: That swing away from Labour is rather ominous

Labour hold Lanark and Hamilton West

but we will have to see more than this in order to make any real comments, but it is in the ball park for the exit poll for a seat like this. We hope to be able to make some more informed comment on the exit poll in about 30 minutes or so. But Fiona has some gossip and rumours for us. Fiona

Fiona: Well, we understand that Filton and Bradley Stoke which is a notionally Conservative constituency is in danger from the Liberal Democrats. This is being backed up by other information from the Greater Bristol area, tweets have revealed that Kerry McCarthy is very worried in Bristol East but hopes that postal votes, which she famously sampled on Twitter, will pull her through. We also have news that the recount in Darlington is NOT for a deposit, that it's very tight between the LibDems and Labour there. The Tories are now claiming Aberconwy and High Peak and are "doing very well in the Greater Midlands". The Liberal Democrats have gone fairly quiet over the last few minutes, but we are told Oliver Letwin is in real trouble in West Dorset and that they feel they have won Ashfield by quite a large margin. Not a lot from London, except Sadiq Khan is doing a bit better in Tooting now the postal votes have been added to the count.

DD: Very interesting, Fiona. Paddy is the West Country turning yellow?

Paddy Ashdown: Well, it is too early to say, but I understand that the Bristol area is looking very promising for us tonight. Most of the West Country seats are slow counters because they are so rural and some don't count until tomorrow. I can say that Sky have called West Dorset for Sue Farrant and that we are hearing that the Labour vote has collapsed throughout the West Country. We believe that Labour may only hold three seats in the West Country after tonight. But it isn't just the West Country that is promising, I'm hearing great things from the North East, from Wales and even from the Home Counties. The people of Britain have looked at Labour and rejected them, they have looked at the Conservatives and found them wanting and they are looking at the one person who through this campaign has looked like a real leader - Nick Clegg.

DD: Well, some harrumphing from your right and your left there Paddy, but we must go to Scotland for a moment where Gordon Brown is leaving for his count.

OB - East Queensferry

Martha: David, the Prime Minister and his entourage have just left for the short drive to his count just over the Forth Bridge where the result is expected just before 2am. Sarah was with him and he exchanged a few words with the press stating that the early results with disappointing, but he felt sure that when the critical seats came in, he was certain that Labour would keep them.

I spoke briefly to one of his aides, who said that the Prime Minister was not following the results closely, but was being appraised of the key information - that he had mainly been working on the European Banking situation all day and would continue this as he travelled down to 10 Downing Street by air after his count.

DD: Martha, did he seem happy, what was the mood amongst the entourage.

Martha: Well, David, he seemed happy enough himself, but he was a man of few words tonight and there was a phalanx of spinners around him. It will be interesting to see what his speech says

DD: Thank you, Martha, lets just check in with the other Party Leaders. Justin Webb is with David Cameron in Witney. Justin

JW: David, it's been a quiet night here in Witney, David Cameron's count isn't expected to declare until around 3am, so he's probably going to spend a little more time at home before leaving in about an hour. He had dinner with Lord Hurd and some senior advisors and then rested for a while. We understand from his aides, that he's been checking up on candidates and results for the last hour or so.

DD: Any indications of the mood in the Cameron camp

JW: There's a feeling of slight disappointment over them, comments have been made about the media coverage of the last few days, other comments have been made about the Conservatives own media management. What I can tell you is that if the exit poll is correct, they are looking towards very early talks with Nick Clegg.

DD: Very interesting, so it looks like Steve Hilton is in for the high jump, perhaps they should have used Cal Richards instead. Lets see what's happening with the Liberals. Andrew

AM: David, the atmosphere here is electric. Nick Clegg, I understand is currently taking a well-deserved nap. I feel I need one too and I've only been chasing around after him since 4pm. He's spend the day fighting a classic street campaign in several constituencies around his Sheffield base.

We are being told that because voting only ended here at 10:55pm in some polling stations that we will be lucky to have a result before 7am, it seems the turnout is over 85% in his seat. We've been told Nick is napping for a couple of hours and he'll speak to us about 3am when the position should be clearer.


DD: That's a huge turnout, Andrew, he must be expecting a big majority.

AM: We have been told that they are hoping for 20,000 in Hallam and 5,000 for the council leader Paul Scriven in Sheffield Central which is regarded as a nailed on gain.

DD: It looks like my friends on BBC Breakfast will get plenty of results to talk about at this rate. Fiona, you have some news from Canterbury?

Fiona Bruce: Yes, we've just confirmed with the local press some rumours from Twitter. It seems there have been some scenes at the Canterbury count after Julian Brazier, the Conservative MP, walked out claiming that the result was fixed, saying he would go to court and that students shouldn't be allowed to vote. It seems that there has been a massive turnout in many boxes associated with Canterbury's students and that in those areas the vote is monolithically Liberal Democrat. The local press haven't had any confirmation, but the inference of the walk out is that Mr Brazier has been defeated.

DD: Good grief, didn't he have a fairly safe seat.

FB: An estimated 7,500 majority, with the Liberal Democrats in third. This is fitting in with what I hear from other seats with large numbers of students.

DD: Well, we will just have a brief recap of the few events so far and then I think we will go to Torbay for the declaration there.

State of the Parties 1:20am: Lab: 6 Con: 1 LDm: 1 PC: 1
 
It looks like the Lib Dems are eating into the Conservative vote a fair bit, this does not look good in the South West. As it was Wells and Chippenham (notional Con) were lost OTL and by the look of things this will be the case here too and with possibly largish majorities for the Lib Dems.

Looks like the entire West Country will become a Conservative-Lib Dem battleground following this election, on an even larger scale than what happened OTL.

My understanding was Chippenham was notional LibDem, but there were two sets of notionals. Wells, of course, was mildly expenses-related but was my most unexpected gain of the election, I'd long written it off as an "always close, never gain".

Fear not, Jacob will still be around to win "Upper Class Twit of the Year". :D
 
Iain- any chance I can request my home seat of South Ribble? It's a north of England marginal seat, so could be fairly interesting. Cheers, and really enjoying this so far.
 
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