BBC results thread 1:46-2:00am
BBC Election Night
DD: Well, I think it's about time to ask the panel how it's progressing, but first Jeremy has some more definite figures on turnout. Jeremy.
JV: Well, enough seats have now gone through verification for us to have a decent estimate on turnout. The polls seemed to think turnout would be around 68% nationally, but the estimate, which could be wrong by up to a percent either side is for 74.5% turnout. That's higher than Blair in 1997, but not as high as Major in 1992.
Recount in Tooting
DD: Well, we have been hearing that it is close there, so I suppose it is not too much of a surprise. Michael, what's your impression of how it is going?
MP: Well, I think I can safely say now that it will be a hung parliament. The Liberal Democrats are having a very good night, Labour are having a very bad night, it looks like the Conservatives won't have a majority, but I think we have to consider that we will still make some very substantial gains tonight and will be the largest party. That Conservative Party in the commons will be a very different group to the last Conservative government, it will have more women, it will have ethnic minorities elected for safe Tory seats and much of this is down to David Cameron. However, we will have to reflect on why we lost ground over the last few months - I think that Clegg's killer line was in the last debate about "if you want a real liberal, it's me not Dave; if you want real fiscal control, it's Vince not George".
Yeovil Liberal Democrat Hold
DD: I see David Laws has held his seat despite last weeks revelations, of course, he isn't entirely in the clear yet, but he has explained himself to the voters of Yeovil, who forgave Paddy his foibles once. Paddy
PA: Can we see the Yeovil result?
DD: In a couple of minutes, I want to give each of the panel their say.
PA: Well, the voters of Yeovil are very wise as they have elected Liberals for seven successive elections now. I agree with Michael's overall analysis, in the same way that people fell over themselves to agree with Nick in the first debate. I think the problem for the Tories was that they were trying to reach out to Liberal Democrats and to swing voters in the Con/Lab seats but at the same time deal with their right-wing. Their problem was Nigel Farage in the debate, he looks like a Tory, he sounds like a Tory, many of his policies are old style Tory and it meant that the great eagle of the Conservative party was a bit too stretched from wingtip to wingtip.
MP: That sounds like praise, Paddy.
PA: Michael, it is, Steve Hilton has done a magnificent rebranding and detoxification job on the Conservative party. The question is, was he right for the election campaign?
DD: So it all comes down to the right sort of spin doctor? Neil, were your spin team up to it.
NK: Well, I don't think it does come down to the spin, I think it comes down to the policies
Clwyd South Labour Hold
NK: Ah, more good news, but to return to my point, you need good policies to be presented well. Like Major in 1992, he had the fag end of Thatcherism to deal with, a nice bloke, but all he had left was "I'm not her and I'm nice" plus a few bits of shiny wrapping. We are in a similar boat, "gulags for slags", "fizzy pop tax", "green taxes" - it doesn't go down well with core voters.
DD: John Major beat you though.
NK:
glowers That was the Tory press.
MP:
Laughs
Lagan Valley Democratic Unionist Hold
DD: Ah, do we have the Yeovil result now.
Code:
Somerset, Yeovil
Electorate: 82,363
Turnout: 80.42%
David Laws* LDm 29,726 44.9% - 6.5
Kevin Davis Con 21,833 33.0% - 1.3
Nigel Pearson UKIP 6,149 9.2% + 4.4
Lee Skevington Lab 4,291 6.5% - 4.0
Robert Baehr BNP 2,530 3.8% + 3.8
Alex Begg Grn 1,735 2.6% + 2.6
Majority: 7,893 (11.9%)
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative: 2.6%
DD: There you go, Paddy, what do you think of that?
PA: Well, obviously, it's disappointing, but considering the relevations and the very vigourous use of them by both the Conservatives and UKIP, it's to be expected. The obvious thing is for David to clear his name, sort himself out a bit, continue to provide a wonderful service to his constituents and not do an Oaten on us.
NK:
Laughs
MP: You are ruling him out of government then?
PA: Well, Michael, I think we are a way off government yet, but I think he needs to rebuild his trust with his constituents and cope with his new role. He's a very private individual for a politician.
Sevenoaks Conservative Hold
DD: Well, no surprises there. I see both UKIP and the BNP kept their deposit and here's another one.
Newbury Conservative Hold
DD: Would you like to see that one, Lord Ashdown.
PA: No, it was always going to be quixotic. Newbury like Christchurch is a by-election gain that has faded away, they do sometimes even ours. David Rendell should apply his skills and charm to somewhere else more promising.
EM: I notice Labour have lost their deposit in Newbury, that's their second one of the night.
DD: Have any of the other major parties lost one?
JV: The Conservatives in Western Isles.
Staffordshire Moorlands Conservative Hold
DD: I thought that was a Labour seat, Emily?
EM: It was, but it was changed substantially by the Boundary Commission and became notionally Conservative. One interesting snippet, over 11% for UKIP there.
DD: That's a very good score for UKIP.
JV: Right-wing parties do very well in the West Midlands and saved several deposits at the last election, I expect them to save more this time.
DD: We'll just see if Fiona has any news.
FB: We are hearing that the Conservatives are claiming Dartford and Dover, both with substantial majorities and the Liberal Democrats are claiming Swansea West. We also understand that Telford looks like it is going to a recount.
Recount in Gedling
DD: I thought Vernon Coaker was going to hold that one, Jeremy.
JV: I think it's part of the election process, David, the parties get their samples from the ballot box votes, they try to take postal vote samples but these are much harder to do. The workout their results from the fully verified vote and then sometimes the postals upset it. Remember postals will have gone out in the main between the first and second debates and the polls have changed somewhat since then.
DD: Surely that wouldn't alter the result that much.
JV: Well consider that some seats have as many 20,000 votes returned then the poll changes we have seen since then could make a 200-400 vote difference. Most people return their postal vote very promptly.
DD: Except, obviously, in Birmingham, Ladywood. Actually, lets go to Birmingham and see how it's going there. Adrian Goldberg is Birmingham. Adrian
AG: Well, it's a very long and confusing night here in Birmingham. We've had all sorts of delays to the start of two counts, quite a bit of fun with where scrutineers were supposed to be and then the usual wrangles about postal votes.
DD: Ah, yes, that's what we have dropped in about. Is Birmingham living up to Mr Justice Mawrey's naming it as a
banana republic
AG: Unfortunately, it seems so. It's not uncommon to have postal votes delivered on election day to the polling station and that's part of the rules. However, it seems that there have been a number of instances in two seats of considerable numbers of postal votes being taken in. The police are investigating, which may slow up the count even more.
DD: Do we know which seats?
AG: Yes, mainly in Ladywood but also a significant one in Perry Barr.
DD: Do you think this means another election court?
AG: From what I'm hearing, yes. The largest bundle of votes, the one brought in by the police was 315 and I hear they were all for the same party, I'm also hearing that the margin in that seat will be very small.
DD: Hmm, Birmingham disgraces itself again. So what of the counts, Adrian?
AG: Well, the LibDems have held Yardley, you only have to look at the piles on the tables to see that and Yardley may be the first to declare. In the same way, Labour look to have held Perry Barr, Hodge Hill and Erdington with reduced majorities. The Tories believe they have taken Edgbaston, but the count there is taking forever - mainly due to scrutineers complaining about each other all the time. The other four seats are more in up in the air, all four are reputed to be very close, although Labour have lost Hall Green, it's more a question of who to.
DD: So when can we expect the first result?
AG: It's going to be a long, long night. I'm told we may have some by 4am.
Conservative Hold Rushcliffe
DD: Thank you, Adrian and I see Kenneth Clark has held Rushcliffe, so maybe he will make it here for the 4am shift. Can we see that one, Emily.
Code:
Nottinghamshire, Rushcliffe
Electorate: 72,944
Turnout: 81.61%
Kenneth Clarke Con 28,255 47.5% - 2.0
Kharrar Khan LDm 17,857 30.0% + 12.6
Andrew Clayworth Lab 7,952 13.4% -11.1
Matthew Faithful UKIP 4,006 6.7% + 4.3
Richard Mallander Grn 1,452 2.4% - 0.6
Majority : 10,398 (17.5%)
Swing : Conservative to Liberal Democrat 7.3%
DD: Well, Ken Clarke slips a little in Rushcliffe but he's safely home, another deposit held there for UKIP
MP: I've always thought that if Ken Clarke didn't have such views on Europe that he'd have a 20,000 majority as he doesn't appeal to many Conservatives
PA: I've always thought that when Ken Clarke stands down, the LibDems will win the seat as it's obviously a liberal area.
East Lothian Labour Hold
DD: Anyway, it's just coming up to 2am, the panel will change slightly over the next half hour. Baroness Scott, the President of the Liberal Democrats will replace Lord Ashdown. Justine Greening, the newly re-elected MP for Putney will take over from Michael Portillo, but she's still on her way and Lord Kinnock is for a bit of a long haul as his supposed replacement is in a recount.
NK: I understand Alan Milburn will be along instead for an hour or so until they can find someone who can make it to the BBC.
DD: Oh, they never tell me anything, I was hoping for Harriet Harman as her count is now not due until 7am! So, it's now 2am and the party position is
State of the Parties 2am: Lab 14, Con 8, LDm 6, DUP 3, PC 2, SNP 1, All 1, SF 1
