Watching From San Diego - A Two for One July 20th 1944 TL
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The Tunis Conference
Tunis, French Tunisia - August 15th, 1944
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The Big Three met again after it became apparent the Germans collapsed themselves thanks to Hitler's assassination and the weeklong infighting. While Europe constantly shifted on the frontlines, the Allies had to maintain some semblance of postwar order. The political demands of the Allied nations, as important as they were, turned out to be far from the only concern. Intelligence reports from the British and Americans painted a lawless, rubble-laden picture of Germany that would require policing and supervision. On the geopolitical front, however, Stalin had to be pacified. The Western powers had to appease Stalin and the Soviets enough to assure them that no collusion with the Valkyrie plotters existed in some plot to expand Western influence.
The negotiations for Eastern Europe began immediately. In order to satiate Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill agreed that Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria were off-limits from the Western allies. Regardless of who personally ruled the nations after the European theatre, these three Balkan nations were guaranteed to fall under Soviet influence. The reasoning was that these three governments surrendered primarily to the Soviets, so Soviet administration of these three nations only made sense. In return, Stalin recognized Western occupation and administration of Albania and Greece. The Allies also promised to help supply Tito's partisans until Yugoslavia was completely liberated, and to recognize Tito as the leader of Yugoslavia.
In turn, the Allies demanded Western control of all Western Allies and their territories. Under this treaty, these included France, the Benelux countries, Norway, and Denmark. Debate began on Poland and whether or not it constituted a Western Allied power. Stalin demanded a Soviet friendly occupation deal similarly to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. According to Stalin, Poland was too historically valuable as a barrier against Germany. If Germany acted up a third time, Soviet influence and military presence in Poland would act as a deterrence against Germany. Churchill and Roosevelt agreed on only one condition: to allow the pre-war government a seat in the post-war government and to allow elections between them and the Soviet-led communist provisional government to decide who would rule Poland. Stalin was reported smirking rather assuredly after agreeing to that condition. The Western powers also agreed to move the border of the Soviet Union to largely match the 1919 Curzon line, with the counteract of carving up parts of Eastern Germany to give Poland,
Two final topics were discussed during the Conference. The first among these was the administration of German occupation once Germany surrendered. The French spoke up and demanded a share of influence over Germany, given how much their resistance bled against Germany. The Big Three decided to grant them the Rhineland-Ruhr area as the French zone of occupation. The British would take Hanover under their zone of occupation, while the Americans would occupy Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria. This granted the Soviets eastern Germany up to around Rostock, Erfurt, and Leipzig. Roosevelt and Churchill also decided that the Soviets could march into Berlin, and the Western Command would only march to Berlin if the Soviets requested assistance; to honor this meant the city would be jointly occupied. Finally, the Soviet Union agreed to declare war on Japan no less than ninety days after the surrender of Germany. In return, the Americans granted the Soviets ownership of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. If weather did not permit an invasion this early, Stalin was allowed to wait, but had to begin no later than an additional ninety days at the start of warm weather.
The negotiations for Eastern Europe began immediately. In order to satiate Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill agreed that Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria were off-limits from the Western allies. Regardless of who personally ruled the nations after the European theatre, these three Balkan nations were guaranteed to fall under Soviet influence. The reasoning was that these three governments surrendered primarily to the Soviets, so Soviet administration of these three nations only made sense. In return, Stalin recognized Western occupation and administration of Albania and Greece. The Allies also promised to help supply Tito's partisans until Yugoslavia was completely liberated, and to recognize Tito as the leader of Yugoslavia.
In turn, the Allies demanded Western control of all Western Allies and their territories. Under this treaty, these included France, the Benelux countries, Norway, and Denmark. Debate began on Poland and whether or not it constituted a Western Allied power. Stalin demanded a Soviet friendly occupation deal similarly to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. According to Stalin, Poland was too historically valuable as a barrier against Germany. If Germany acted up a third time, Soviet influence and military presence in Poland would act as a deterrence against Germany. Churchill and Roosevelt agreed on only one condition: to allow the pre-war government a seat in the post-war government and to allow elections between them and the Soviet-led communist provisional government to decide who would rule Poland. Stalin was reported smirking rather assuredly after agreeing to that condition. The Western powers also agreed to move the border of the Soviet Union to largely match the 1919 Curzon line, with the counteract of carving up parts of Eastern Germany to give Poland,
Two final topics were discussed during the Conference. The first among these was the administration of German occupation once Germany surrendered. The French spoke up and demanded a share of influence over Germany, given how much their resistance bled against Germany. The Big Three decided to grant them the Rhineland-Ruhr area as the French zone of occupation. The British would take Hanover under their zone of occupation, while the Americans would occupy Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria. This granted the Soviets eastern Germany up to around Rostock, Erfurt, and Leipzig. Roosevelt and Churchill also decided that the Soviets could march into Berlin, and the Western Command would only march to Berlin if the Soviets requested assistance; to honor this meant the city would be jointly occupied. Finally, the Soviet Union agreed to declare war on Japan no less than ninety days after the surrender of Germany. In return, the Americans granted the Soviets ownership of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. If weather did not permit an invasion this early, Stalin was allowed to wait, but had to begin no later than an additional ninety days at the start of warm weather.
August 1944 European Front Part 2
European Theatre, August 16th - 31st, 1944
Progress began to slow again for the Allies come the second half of August. The Germans began to fight to the bitter end, realizing the end was near. Massive conscription efforts began by the Goering government just to have warm bodies fill the frontlines. Teenagers, elderly men, the mentally disabled, sometimes even the very Jews that the Nazis despised, all became cannon fodder as the end approached. With the SS decimated from Himmler's failed coup attempt, the defense of Germany proper became even more desperate. It almost seemed as if Goering was ready to kill every last man, woman, and child in Germany before he would surrender.
In France, Operation City of Lights finished its last stages around the 27th of August. By that point, France Comte, Rouen in Normandy, and the suburbs north of Paris were all in Western hands. The OSS got wind of Rommel's planned counter-offensive to retake Normandy and push southeastwards from there, starting in Calais and Dunkirk. Western Command responded with a preemptive attack on the 28th with the goal of encircling Calais and Dunkirk. Dubbed "Operation Deja vu", the Allies intended on encircling as many German divisions as possible to fully liberate France and ease the invasion of Germany proper. The Italian line went further north, but only by miniscule amounts. Mussolini began to sweat as Goering retracted troops to defend Germany's core by the day, however.
The Soviets, meanwhile, found themselves in a meat grinder in the East. The Polish Uprising that began at the beginning of August was still raging, and it only brought the attention of the Germans. More Soviet forces died than Polish partisans. Stalin began to wonder if supporting the uprising was worth it. However, the NKVD noticed how direct Soviet aid steadily increased pro-Soviet sentiment in Poland. This convinced Stalin to sacrifice as many men as it took, wanting to subjugate an eager versus an unwilling Poland. Down in the Balkans, the Soviets could pride themselves in enjoying the most ground gained. The Hungarian, Romania, and Bulgaria defections had been solidified, and the now stabilized governments could send forces into Yugoslavia. Belgrade was captured on the 20th. Pristina was captured on the 22nd. The Dalmatian coastline was secured by the 26th. Unfortunately, the Ustasa Croatian forces stopped partisan incursions into Bosnia or Slavonia, but the chaos in Yugoslavia began to become a Soviet-favored order.
Naval warfare was practically over in Europe by the time of September. When the Germans withdrew from the Baltics in July, much of their Eastern vessels were scrapped for parts for the Army. Western Command navies decimated any remaining German ships in Western Europe, U Boats included. British clean up missions to capture remaining territory in Greece also focused on destroying any German ships in the Mediterranean and Adriatic. The already weakened German supply lines suffered, as most of their territorial control became landlocked or firmly blockaded. If any chance of victory existed for the collapsing Germany, it took a Hail Mary from the Wehrmacht's efforts alone. Even the Luftwaffe was a shell of its former self thanks to constant Allied bombings and lack of industry.
In France, Operation City of Lights finished its last stages around the 27th of August. By that point, France Comte, Rouen in Normandy, and the suburbs north of Paris were all in Western hands. The OSS got wind of Rommel's planned counter-offensive to retake Normandy and push southeastwards from there, starting in Calais and Dunkirk. Western Command responded with a preemptive attack on the 28th with the goal of encircling Calais and Dunkirk. Dubbed "Operation Deja vu", the Allies intended on encircling as many German divisions as possible to fully liberate France and ease the invasion of Germany proper. The Italian line went further north, but only by miniscule amounts. Mussolini began to sweat as Goering retracted troops to defend Germany's core by the day, however.
The Soviets, meanwhile, found themselves in a meat grinder in the East. The Polish Uprising that began at the beginning of August was still raging, and it only brought the attention of the Germans. More Soviet forces died than Polish partisans. Stalin began to wonder if supporting the uprising was worth it. However, the NKVD noticed how direct Soviet aid steadily increased pro-Soviet sentiment in Poland. This convinced Stalin to sacrifice as many men as it took, wanting to subjugate an eager versus an unwilling Poland. Down in the Balkans, the Soviets could pride themselves in enjoying the most ground gained. The Hungarian, Romania, and Bulgaria defections had been solidified, and the now stabilized governments could send forces into Yugoslavia. Belgrade was captured on the 20th. Pristina was captured on the 22nd. The Dalmatian coastline was secured by the 26th. Unfortunately, the Ustasa Croatian forces stopped partisan incursions into Bosnia or Slavonia, but the chaos in Yugoslavia began to become a Soviet-favored order.
Naval warfare was practically over in Europe by the time of September. When the Germans withdrew from the Baltics in July, much of their Eastern vessels were scrapped for parts for the Army. Western Command navies decimated any remaining German ships in Western Europe, U Boats included. British clean up missions to capture remaining territory in Greece also focused on destroying any German ships in the Mediterranean and Adriatic. The already weakened German supply lines suffered, as most of their territorial control became landlocked or firmly blockaded. If any chance of victory existed for the collapsing Germany, it took a Hail Mary from the Wehrmacht's efforts alone. Even the Luftwaffe was a shell of its former self thanks to constant Allied bombings and lack of industry.
American Politics August 1944
American Politics August 1944
The election overall was going well for Roosevelt. His enthusiasm to finish the war and a promise of the expansion of the New Deal with the Second Bill of Rights proved quite popular. Dewey hit back with promises on going ahead and reopening the civilian market for goods as soon as he was inaugurated. While Roosevelt retorted with the fact how dangerous it was to do so during war, he promised a speedy end to the war and a return to civilian style economy after the war ended. This mitigated the worst of the attacks, but voters seemed to slightly prefer Dewey's reasoning. There was also the fact that Dewey was younger and healthier than the President, meaning he could campaign more. He seemed more lively than Roosevelt, though often too aggressive at times. Roosevelt may be the more passive candidate, but overall, he was the more trusted one. Roosevelt was winning comfortably, but Dewey was polling rather strong. At this point, Dewey would fare the best of any Republican who fought FDR.
Vice President Henry Wallace and his eccentricities proved of minimal consequence during the first month of the campaign season. His avowed progressivism drove away some conservatives and wealthy voters in New England and the Northeast, but his support among laborers, farmers, and poorer citizens made up for it. A Republican operative had rediscovered Wallace's New Age religious letter to Nikolai Roederich, but the Roosevelt campaign discovered Bricker's former relationship with fascist Gerald L.K. Smith. The two candidates came to an agreement not to air these respective dirty laundries.
Successes in France and the Balkans definitely helped Roosevelt. Although the Pacific Front remained rather slow, no one expected Germany to collapse so quickly. Many had expected the liberation of France to make months, and the lull of winter to slow things down. Now it seemed like Germany would not survive the New Year. This helped mitigate Dewey's attack on the economy. If one theatre was coming to an end, maybe the war will end soon and things can return to normal anyway? Many voters thought so. There was little Dewey could do about this, especially at the risk of sounding unpatriotic.
On the 4th of August, Dewey experienced one of the worst nightmares a Presidential candidate could face. Roosevelt's 1940 opponent, Wendell Willkie, endorsed Franklin Delano Roosevelt on live radio broadcast mere hours after the liberation of Paris. This had no major effects on voting trends during the month, but it caused a massive uproar in the Republican Party. Despite Dewey's own internationalism, the de-politicized endorsement by Willkie based on the success in WWII and the promise to promote international peace proved too much. Many prominent Republicans, like Minnesota Senator Joseph Ball, came out in endorsement for Roosevelt. The liberal wing of the GOP became enthralled by their spokesperson for the past four years and followed him into the Roosevelt camp. Willkie's speech burned deep into Dewey's mind, as his ears kept repeating the worst part to himself...
... "My fellow Americans, it is with great honor that I make an official endorsement for President. I fought against him four years ago, but I am officially endorsing the incumbent Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Roosevelt prepared our nation for the worst to come, and showed our now allies that America helps friends in need. Thanks to his preparations, the unfortunate but now apparent entry into this war have went remarkably well. We have freed North Africa from the Axis powers. We have just freed France. The Japanese are beginning to retreat in the Pacific. And now, with Germany collapsing? Roosevelt has proven that his wartime leadership can be trusted. I have no doubt that if we re-elect FDR, we can and will win this war against the forces of evil!"
Vice President Henry Wallace and his eccentricities proved of minimal consequence during the first month of the campaign season. His avowed progressivism drove away some conservatives and wealthy voters in New England and the Northeast, but his support among laborers, farmers, and poorer citizens made up for it. A Republican operative had rediscovered Wallace's New Age religious letter to Nikolai Roederich, but the Roosevelt campaign discovered Bricker's former relationship with fascist Gerald L.K. Smith. The two candidates came to an agreement not to air these respective dirty laundries.
Successes in France and the Balkans definitely helped Roosevelt. Although the Pacific Front remained rather slow, no one expected Germany to collapse so quickly. Many had expected the liberation of France to make months, and the lull of winter to slow things down. Now it seemed like Germany would not survive the New Year. This helped mitigate Dewey's attack on the economy. If one theatre was coming to an end, maybe the war will end soon and things can return to normal anyway? Many voters thought so. There was little Dewey could do about this, especially at the risk of sounding unpatriotic.
On the 4th of August, Dewey experienced one of the worst nightmares a Presidential candidate could face. Roosevelt's 1940 opponent, Wendell Willkie, endorsed Franklin Delano Roosevelt on live radio broadcast mere hours after the liberation of Paris. This had no major effects on voting trends during the month, but it caused a massive uproar in the Republican Party. Despite Dewey's own internationalism, the de-politicized endorsement by Willkie based on the success in WWII and the promise to promote international peace proved too much. Many prominent Republicans, like Minnesota Senator Joseph Ball, came out in endorsement for Roosevelt. The liberal wing of the GOP became enthralled by their spokesperson for the past four years and followed him into the Roosevelt camp. Willkie's speech burned deep into Dewey's mind, as his ears kept repeating the worst part to himself...
... "My fellow Americans, it is with great honor that I make an official endorsement for President. I fought against him four years ago, but I am officially endorsing the incumbent Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Roosevelt prepared our nation for the worst to come, and showed our now allies that America helps friends in need. Thanks to his preparations, the unfortunate but now apparent entry into this war have went remarkably well. We have freed North Africa from the Axis powers. We have just freed France. The Japanese are beginning to retreat in the Pacific. And now, with Germany collapsing? Roosevelt has proven that his wartime leadership can be trusted. I have no doubt that if we re-elect FDR, we can and will win this war against the forces of evil!"
Pollsters' Prediction of the Election by August 31st, 1944
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August 1944 Pacific Front
Pacific Front - August 1944
August proved to be relatively quiet by all accounts in the Pacific Theatre of WWII. However, Americans won a strategic victory at Guam on August 10th. This completed the liberation of the Mariana Islands, which could now be used by the Marines, Navy, and Air Corps to strike closer against the Japanese. The door became fully open to the Americans to assault the Philippines and liberate it from Japanese occupation. At this point, Pacific Command okayed Operation Return, MacArthur's dream project and his chance to personally shine. Throughout the month, the United States made several landings into the Filipino Islands. Japanese resistance was already tough, but it was getting tougher. The fear of the Japanese in response to Germany's early demise was palpable.
Operation Ichi-Go by the Japanese in China began to slow down considerably. While the Japanese made advanced into southern China, strategic use of such victories was being called into question. The Chinese forces refused to surrender, no naval advantage was gained by attacking more southern Chinese ports, and attrition began to ramp up against the Japanese. Japanese military leaders began to debate on whether to penetrate deeper into China, begin a pre-emptive defense of the border in Manchuria against the Soviets, or divert forces towards American advances and try to stop them. One thing was certain, Hideki Tojo had to go. Originally, the military wanted him gone in July, but the precarious situation in Germany showed weakness. The Japanese did not want to show the same weakness with a sudden government change. Since the Allies were weakening the Japanese anyway, Tojo found himself fired and placed under house arrest on August 20th.
Not fully related to the Pacific Front specifically was the beginning of the Dumbarton Oaks conference. However, Chiang Kai-Shek of China attended. It laid the foundations for the United Nations, a global organization that would promote and regulate world peace. No one knew how well it would work, but everyone prayed that it would work better than the League of Nations. President Roosevelt announced the commitment of American troops, which definitely distinguished it from the League. Wendell Willkie was also in attendance, looking oddly healthy for a man who seemed so frail a mere month ago. He was reported to have nearly fainted from happiness during the meeting.
Operation Ichi-Go by the Japanese in China began to slow down considerably. While the Japanese made advanced into southern China, strategic use of such victories was being called into question. The Chinese forces refused to surrender, no naval advantage was gained by attacking more southern Chinese ports, and attrition began to ramp up against the Japanese. Japanese military leaders began to debate on whether to penetrate deeper into China, begin a pre-emptive defense of the border in Manchuria against the Soviets, or divert forces towards American advances and try to stop them. One thing was certain, Hideki Tojo had to go. Originally, the military wanted him gone in July, but the precarious situation in Germany showed weakness. The Japanese did not want to show the same weakness with a sudden government change. Since the Allies were weakening the Japanese anyway, Tojo found himself fired and placed under house arrest on August 20th.
Not fully related to the Pacific Front specifically was the beginning of the Dumbarton Oaks conference. However, Chiang Kai-Shek of China attended. It laid the foundations for the United Nations, a global organization that would promote and regulate world peace. No one knew how well it would work, but everyone prayed that it would work better than the League of Nations. President Roosevelt announced the commitment of American troops, which definitely distinguished it from the League. Wendell Willkie was also in attendance, looking oddly healthy for a man who seemed so frail a mere month ago. He was reported to have nearly fainted from happiness during the meeting.
The liberation of the Philippines happens two months earlier then? So do we butterfly the battle of Leyte Gulf, Sibuyan Sea, and Surigao Strait?
They've landed in the Philipines. They are far from done.
What I mean is, they've arrived, but the Japanese have not left. The islands are currently contested.
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I'm curious if the Musashi will survive this or not? I have to see where she was in August 1944. She sank in the Sibuyan Sea in OTL.
I am going to admit that I am more knowledgeable about the European Theatre. However, DM me and I'll do some research and make a decision from there. I want to cover both fronts in at least appropriate detail, and honestly, the Pacific will receive more detail once the European front concludes.
I'll shoot a DM tomorrow. It's late here in my country. For the Pacific front, you can ask our admin/mod @CalBear. He has many insights on the the Philippines theater, specifically the Battle of Leyte Gulf.
European Front September 1944
European Front September 1944
Rough offensive lines of the European Theatre, September 1st, 1944
Rough offensive lines of the European Theatre, September 1st, 1944
The French portion of the Theatre offered historians a comical dose of irony. Well, almost. Rommel sent troops east and then south through Belgium to try and stop Operation Deja vu. However, Allied troops proved too strong for the demoralized, battered Germans. General Patton sent tank and mechanized divisions to western Belgium and pushed the brunt of the Wehrmacht to Calais and Dunkirk by September 4th. With nowhere to go expect into Allied controlled territory or waters, Erwin Rommel surrendered to Patton on the 5th, 160,000 German soldiers surrendering with him. Patton would remember this day for the rest of his life.
Now was the time to invade Germany proper. Western command walked into Belgium unopposed, and into the very southern part of the Netherlands. Flanking from there, the Allies conquered Aachen on September 9th. Saarbrucken fell rather unceremoniously on September 11th. Goerring was forced to divert forces from the Eastern Front and Italy to halt the incursion into Germany proper, weakening the Axis further. The Allies conquered Cologne on the 13th after intense fighting, though now the Germans enjoyed the natural defenses of the Rhine. To help the Soviets in the Balkans and to destroy a German ally, the Americans sent a small attachment to cross through the Alps into Italy. While this was risky, the Americans took advantage of an unprepared Italy and won the battle of Turin on the 16th. This allowed the British-led forces to capture Milan on the 18th. Italian partisans located Mussolini and executed him the following day, and by the end of the month, the British had marched relatively unopposed to south of Tyrol and west of Trieste.
On the Eastern Front, Soviet assistance to the Warsaw Uprising by the Poles finally paid off. On September 2nd, the Germans had no choice but to retreat. In three days the Soviets blitzed nearly every major Polish city outside of Danzig and Krakow, and every Slovakian city outside of Bratislava. The next step of Operation Bagration was to conquer East Prussia. The Germans adopted Japanese style no surrender tactics, even salting the Earth when need be. The Russian Bear still gained its pound of flesh. Konigsberg was conquered on September 11th, marking the first pre-war German city conquered by the Russians. Elbing fell on the 13th. Danzig on the 16th. Up in Finland, the Soviets pushed one final time until the Finns agreed to an armistice on September 19th, switching sides and affirming the Soviets the territory won during the Winter War. By the end of September, the Germans had retreated to the Oder. Krakow fell on the 22nd and Opole on the 25th.
The mass conscription Goering began in August became ramped up as much as humanly possible. Too many troops were lost by Rommel's surrender, and now Germany's last European allies surrendered. The Wehrmacht fought truly alone now. River defenses were utilized during the final week of September, buying the Germans enough time to survive the month. By now, Fuhrer Goering fell into a morphine-fueled stupor, practically giving up. Bormann and Speer were forced to pick up the slack, realizing the war was lost. Mass defections spread west, with German soldiers preferring to surrender to Westerners over the Soviets. The goal was no longer to win, or even to survive. The goal was to outlast the Reds and hope the Americans and British decided to reach Berlin first.
Now was the time to invade Germany proper. Western command walked into Belgium unopposed, and into the very southern part of the Netherlands. Flanking from there, the Allies conquered Aachen on September 9th. Saarbrucken fell rather unceremoniously on September 11th. Goerring was forced to divert forces from the Eastern Front and Italy to halt the incursion into Germany proper, weakening the Axis further. The Allies conquered Cologne on the 13th after intense fighting, though now the Germans enjoyed the natural defenses of the Rhine. To help the Soviets in the Balkans and to destroy a German ally, the Americans sent a small attachment to cross through the Alps into Italy. While this was risky, the Americans took advantage of an unprepared Italy and won the battle of Turin on the 16th. This allowed the British-led forces to capture Milan on the 18th. Italian partisans located Mussolini and executed him the following day, and by the end of the month, the British had marched relatively unopposed to south of Tyrol and west of Trieste.
On the Eastern Front, Soviet assistance to the Warsaw Uprising by the Poles finally paid off. On September 2nd, the Germans had no choice but to retreat. In three days the Soviets blitzed nearly every major Polish city outside of Danzig and Krakow, and every Slovakian city outside of Bratislava. The next step of Operation Bagration was to conquer East Prussia. The Germans adopted Japanese style no surrender tactics, even salting the Earth when need be. The Russian Bear still gained its pound of flesh. Konigsberg was conquered on September 11th, marking the first pre-war German city conquered by the Russians. Elbing fell on the 13th. Danzig on the 16th. Up in Finland, the Soviets pushed one final time until the Finns agreed to an armistice on September 19th, switching sides and affirming the Soviets the territory won during the Winter War. By the end of September, the Germans had retreated to the Oder. Krakow fell on the 22nd and Opole on the 25th.
The mass conscription Goering began in August became ramped up as much as humanly possible. Too many troops were lost by Rommel's surrender, and now Germany's last European allies surrendered. The Wehrmacht fought truly alone now. River defenses were utilized during the final week of September, buying the Germans enough time to survive the month. By now, Fuhrer Goering fell into a morphine-fueled stupor, practically giving up. Bormann and Speer were forced to pick up the slack, realizing the war was lost. Mass defections spread west, with German soldiers preferring to surrender to Westerners over the Soviets. The goal was no longer to win, or even to survive. The goal was to outlast the Reds and hope the Americans and British decided to reach Berlin first.
The European Theatre by September 30th. Cartographers in Allied countries were rushing to abandon these rough maps of the Interwar period in anticipation of drafting finessed maps of the post-war order.
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The battles themselves would not happen in the same exact manner, different ships would be on station for 3rd Fleet.
The actual Shō Go 1 plan had been decided earlier, well before Guam fell, so the Japanese were ready to go all in.
There is, however, a major element that will cause severe issues for any invasion if it were to begin in August.
Formosa.
IOTL 3rd Fleet fought a five day pitched battle against IJN naval air forces in order to neutralize the extremely potent striking power the Japanese had assembled there. It was an utter disaster for the Japanese, with over 300 aircraft shot down and at least 100 damaged/mission killed. That fight happened in mid-October after 1) TF 58 returned to Ulithi to refit/resupply/replace losses (it is sometimes forgotten that the U.S. lost 123 aircraft, mainly due to ditching after running out of fuel, at Philippine Sea) and 2) the scheduled change in command between Spruance (5th Fleet) and Halsey (3rd Fleet) took place. The Formosa Strikes are also why Ozawa carriers were only useful as decoys during the Leyte engagement, most of their aircraft and aircrews were lost during the mid October battle.
The U.S. would not be able to have the Fast Carrier Task Force (and its 900+ fighter and attack bombers) take part in any invasion before late September, at the earliest. The CVE assigned to 7th Fleet were flat not up to the task of facing the combined IJNAF land based units in the Philippines AND on Formosa along with three or four full strength Japanese fleet carriers that could trap the U.S. invasion force by cutting off their retreat while land based air hammered them for at least five or six days (the time it would take the TF 58 to reach the combat zone.
That would be a really unfortunate event.
I may need your advice in DMs on how to write that out. Looks like Nimitz will be vindicated.
So this means the landings in the Philippines are much bloodier then since @CalBear mentioned that the U.S. Navy didn't have the resources to land up until October 1944.
Actually without the Fast Carrier Task Force it isn't just bloodier, it fails. It would never even be attempted.
American Politics September 1944
American Politics September 1944
The election swung to President Roosevelt's favor in September, but surprised pundits by how minimal the change was. The European Theatre was naturally a huge boon for the President, but the Pacific Front became a liability. The advance into the Philippines proved impossible, and too painful to actualize. While the Americans made certain great progress in Pacific waters, Japanese weakness was misjudged. The Japanese Navy kept American ships bogged down in the western area, thanks to the supply from Formosa. MacArthur's comeback tour was postponed after some attempted incursions proved to be defeats. Dewey attacked FDR on this hard, and began to curry MacArthur's favor. MacArthur, being the man who demanded Filipino liberation, however, also lost considerable popularity thanks to the quagmire in the Philippines, reducing this popularity. Operation Formosa was instead approved out of necessity, and even that required more planning first.
The struggle to crush the Pacific Front caused an interesting cascade effect on the domestic front. Not wanting to look weak, President Roosevelt vetoed any motions to wind down for end Japanese American internment. Vice President Wallace and other progressives were infuriated, but not much could be done. This helped counter-act Dewey's claims of weakness against the Japanese, but it firmly secured any free Japanese man's vote for the Republicans. Dewey came out in support of winding the program down, able to afford this position. Some radical progressives began to switch to Dewey, but only some.
Roosevelt used the European Theatre to his advantage. Though slowed down on the Rhine, the Americans made a wise decision to ignore the Dutch marshes and penetrate deep into the German heartland. Newsreels of German soldiers surrendering on their own turf looked good for the incumbent administration in the U.S. Many experts declared that Germany would collapse before Election Day. Feeling ballsy, Roosevelt promised the end of the European war before November ended. While Dewey lambasted the President for declaring victory before it happened, most voters were receptive to Roosevelt's promise. An unintended but welcome side effect was further morale increases for the soldiers fighting in France and the Rhineland, which in turn made defeating Germany all the easier.
Little changed about the economy, apart from a small uptick from Germany collapsing. Dewey and Roosevelt instead focused their attention to detail on the WWII Theatres. Business production in the West Coast noticeably increased as wartime industry prepared its full attention towards the Japanese. Both parties maintained their platforms on the economy, so voters' minds changed little. Dewey continued to gain among the wealthy in the Northeast, however, and Wallace continued to boost Roosevelt in the farmor-labor demographic.
The struggle to crush the Pacific Front caused an interesting cascade effect on the domestic front. Not wanting to look weak, President Roosevelt vetoed any motions to wind down for end Japanese American internment. Vice President Wallace and other progressives were infuriated, but not much could be done. This helped counter-act Dewey's claims of weakness against the Japanese, but it firmly secured any free Japanese man's vote for the Republicans. Dewey came out in support of winding the program down, able to afford this position. Some radical progressives began to switch to Dewey, but only some.
Roosevelt used the European Theatre to his advantage. Though slowed down on the Rhine, the Americans made a wise decision to ignore the Dutch marshes and penetrate deep into the German heartland. Newsreels of German soldiers surrendering on their own turf looked good for the incumbent administration in the U.S. Many experts declared that Germany would collapse before Election Day. Feeling ballsy, Roosevelt promised the end of the European war before November ended. While Dewey lambasted the President for declaring victory before it happened, most voters were receptive to Roosevelt's promise. An unintended but welcome side effect was further morale increases for the soldiers fighting in France and the Rhineland, which in turn made defeating Germany all the easier.
Little changed about the economy, apart from a small uptick from Germany collapsing. Dewey and Roosevelt instead focused their attention to detail on the WWII Theatres. Business production in the West Coast noticeably increased as wartime industry prepared its full attention towards the Japanese. Both parties maintained their platforms on the economy, so voters' minds changed little. Dewey continued to gain among the wealthy in the Northeast, however, and Wallace continued to boost Roosevelt in the farmor-labor demographic.
Pollster's Prediction of the Election by September 30th, 1944
Pacific Front September 1944
Pacific Front September 1944
Rendition of the Japanese Battleship Musashi
Rendition of the Japanese Battleship Musashi
The American advance into the Pacific came to a halt. Before MacArthur could invade the occupied Philippines, further naval battles had to finish. Pacific Command promised MacArthur arrival to the Islands if these battles were won. Unfortunately, they were not. Sailing from Formosa, several Japanese ships reinforced the Imperial Japanese Navy in the sea. While no catastrophic losses occurred, the bogged down United States Navy could not sustain the attacks. After two weeks of onslaught, the Americans pulled back from the Filipino Waters on September 16th. Operation Comeback was postponed, and MacArthur became lividly furious.
One of the most damning defeats was the Battle of Leyte Gulf. The Americans sustained around 8,000 casualties while the Japanese sustained 18,000. However, the Japanese were simply far more willing to throw more men away than the Americans. Enter the Japanese battleship Musashi. Musashi was pivotal in the Japanese defense of Leyte Gulf, only appearing when it was time to overwhelm the Americans. Before the Americans pulled back to the Mariana Islands, the Musashi was seen repelling the Americans from the Gulf on the 16th, giving the Japanese a morale victory.
This proved two things to Pacific Command. One, the Japanese were not caving to internal pressures like the Germans. Tojo's replacement was nowhere near as destabilizing to Japan as Hitler's death was to Germany. Two, the Philippines were too well protected. Roosevelt personally apologized to Nimitz and approved a modified version of Operation Formosa. The Volcano and southern Bonin Islands would be captured by Marines and infantrymen once the waters were cleared, and the Americans prepared for a false attack like in Normandy to keep the Japanese from looking. After that, the assault on Taiwan would begin. This only infuriated MacArthur more, but his failure in Operation Comeback meant he had little sway. Perhaps he could redeem himself somewhat in Formosa.
One of the most damning defeats was the Battle of Leyte Gulf. The Americans sustained around 8,000 casualties while the Japanese sustained 18,000. However, the Japanese were simply far more willing to throw more men away than the Americans. Enter the Japanese battleship Musashi. Musashi was pivotal in the Japanese defense of Leyte Gulf, only appearing when it was time to overwhelm the Americans. Before the Americans pulled back to the Mariana Islands, the Musashi was seen repelling the Americans from the Gulf on the 16th, giving the Japanese a morale victory.
This proved two things to Pacific Command. One, the Japanese were not caving to internal pressures like the Germans. Tojo's replacement was nowhere near as destabilizing to Japan as Hitler's death was to Germany. Two, the Philippines were too well protected. Roosevelt personally apologized to Nimitz and approved a modified version of Operation Formosa. The Volcano and southern Bonin Islands would be captured by Marines and infantrymen once the waters were cleared, and the Americans prepared for a false attack like in Normandy to keep the Japanese from looking. After that, the assault on Taiwan would begin. This only infuriated MacArthur more, but his failure in Operation Comeback meant he had little sway. Perhaps he could redeem himself somewhat in Formosa.
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European Front, October 1944: Fall of the Teutons
European Front, October 1944: Fall of the Teutons
A dead Wehrmacht trooper in a dead city, October 20th
A dead Wehrmacht trooper in a dead city, October 20th
The Eastern Front became the focus of the European Theatre. On October 1st, the Red Army broke through the Oder and entered the gates of Berlin early morning October 2nd. Speer and Bormann ordered every warm body to defend the city. The battle raged for three weeks, as the Wehrmacht worked tirelessly to prevent the dreaded Red Horde from taking their city. Goering, at this point, became near catatonic from constant opium and heroin use. Germany had practically lost two Fuhrers at this point, even if Goering still had a pulse. To keep the Soviets at bay, Speer and Bormann had no choice but to pull troops from the Western Front.
The Western Allies took advantage of this withdrawal to protect Berlin. Beginning from the Rhine, Eisenhower and Patton began Operation Friedrich, named after the last Holy Roman Emperor. The Americans and British moved into Germany and Austria proper with minimal resistance. Honestly, the Wehrmacht knew Germany was gone. The question now was who was the better power to surrender to. Essen, Dortmund, Innsbruck, Salzburg, and Frankfurt all fell within the first week. Next, the Western Allies conquered Kassel, Graz, Munich, and Nuremberg. Eventually, the Allies met in Vienna, and the Americans reached Prague on the 18th.
The Wehrmacht proved unable to defend much outside of Berlin. On October 19th, with the Russians inches away from the Fuhrerbunker, Goering committed suicide. Speer and Bormann contacted the Allies on both sides, calling for an immediate, unconditional surrender. The Valkyrie plotters, in hiding, realized what they had done. They did not save Germany, but indeed realized that they doomed it. They too committed suicide en masse like the Nazis did. Upon seeing Germany fall in three months without Hitler, many Germans would see the Valkyrie Plot as the second stab in the back. Perhaps if Hitler lived, Germany would have at least survived into 1945. Instead, it fell before Halloween. All of its allies in the Axis abandoned Germany, save for Italy, who crumbled a month earlier. Without Hitler, it was concluded that victory for Germany was impossible. The Allies would have to contend with this sentiment postwar....
The Reds were relieved when they discovered that the Western Allies fully intended to offer the Soviets their pound of flesh. Despite Patton's protests, Eisenhower allowed the Soviets to march into Berlin. Stalin was also pleased that the Allies withdrew to the western half of Germany, honoring the occupation zones set in Tunis. However, Stalin was a little upset how the Allies captured half of Vienna and much of Bohemia, however. He contacted President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill, arranging for a meeting in Prague to fully flesh out the post-war order. Both men quickly accepted. Many troops would have to remain in Europe to police the occupied Germany, but finally, Japan became the main focus. The Western Allies began their preparations to topple the Japanese.
The Western Allies took advantage of this withdrawal to protect Berlin. Beginning from the Rhine, Eisenhower and Patton began Operation Friedrich, named after the last Holy Roman Emperor. The Americans and British moved into Germany and Austria proper with minimal resistance. Honestly, the Wehrmacht knew Germany was gone. The question now was who was the better power to surrender to. Essen, Dortmund, Innsbruck, Salzburg, and Frankfurt all fell within the first week. Next, the Western Allies conquered Kassel, Graz, Munich, and Nuremberg. Eventually, the Allies met in Vienna, and the Americans reached Prague on the 18th.
The Wehrmacht proved unable to defend much outside of Berlin. On October 19th, with the Russians inches away from the Fuhrerbunker, Goering committed suicide. Speer and Bormann contacted the Allies on both sides, calling for an immediate, unconditional surrender. The Valkyrie plotters, in hiding, realized what they had done. They did not save Germany, but indeed realized that they doomed it. They too committed suicide en masse like the Nazis did. Upon seeing Germany fall in three months without Hitler, many Germans would see the Valkyrie Plot as the second stab in the back. Perhaps if Hitler lived, Germany would have at least survived into 1945. Instead, it fell before Halloween. All of its allies in the Axis abandoned Germany, save for Italy, who crumbled a month earlier. Without Hitler, it was concluded that victory for Germany was impossible. The Allies would have to contend with this sentiment postwar....
The Reds were relieved when they discovered that the Western Allies fully intended to offer the Soviets their pound of flesh. Despite Patton's protests, Eisenhower allowed the Soviets to march into Berlin. Stalin was also pleased that the Allies withdrew to the western half of Germany, honoring the occupation zones set in Tunis. However, Stalin was a little upset how the Allies captured half of Vienna and much of Bohemia, however. He contacted President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill, arranging for a meeting in Prague to fully flesh out the post-war order. Both men quickly accepted. Many troops would have to remain in Europe to police the occupied Germany, but finally, Japan became the main focus. The Western Allies began their preparations to topple the Japanese.
An American and Soviet soldier being chummy in Moravia on VE Day, October 20th.
Europe At Peace, October 1944
Immediate Post-VE Day Occupations
A map portraying the results of the Tunis Conference and immediately negotiated changes. Roosevelt ordered American troops back to the occupation line set by the Tunis Conference. In return, all four major nations agreed to joint occupation of Berlin and Vienna.
The above map was how Europe looked for the remainder of October. Both sides honored already existing occupation terms, warming relations for a comprehensive peace talk in November. As promised, the United States occupied Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria, France occupied the Rhineland-Ruhr, Britain occupied Hanover, and the Soviets occupied the eastern portion of Germany. In a show of good faith, Stalin agreed to withdraw from Bohemia and let the Americans occupy the country split down Czech and Slovak borders. Notably, neither side found anything concrete on Czechoslovakia in the Tunis Accords, and promised to announce something in Prague. Greece and Albania were promised to fall under Western influence, so the British began to restore their governments while remaining for postwar assistance. Wherever pre-war governments could easily be established, plans were made to do so, even in Poland. Stalin went ahead and ceded majority Polish areas from Germany to Poland, with none of the Allies complaining whatsoever.
The Prague Conference was set for November, but negotiation concerns were already being addressed. Would Germany become one unified nation, divided in two, or divided completely by the four zones? How would Austria be handled? Would the Czechoslovaks be split into Western and Soviet satellites or remain a united but neutral buffer state? What would the post-war borders of Poland look like? Most importantly, how would Germany be prevented from ever threatening Europe again? A few other minor concerns would also need addressing, such as when Stalin would be ready to invade the Japanese Empire and what minor territorial concessions were to be made.
One thing was certain, however. As paranoid as Stalin remained, his Western friends honored all of his demands thus far. He still remained the ruthless dictator he was, but Stalin went to Prague with more genuine good faith. This cause concern in Britain and the United States, where anti-communist sentiment still existed. The honeymoon period had not ended, but the Red Scare was slowly losing its dormancy. The ongoing Pacific Theatre was the main factor in keeping anticommunist sentiment down. Not everyone was happy, however. Patton remained livid at the cost of Soviet friendship: eastern Germany. While his view was the minority one, General Patton was the spokesman for anti-Soviet sentiment in the Western Allies, and this continued friendship would keep him fanatical about it.
The Prague Conference was set for November, but negotiation concerns were already being addressed. Would Germany become one unified nation, divided in two, or divided completely by the four zones? How would Austria be handled? Would the Czechoslovaks be split into Western and Soviet satellites or remain a united but neutral buffer state? What would the post-war borders of Poland look like? Most importantly, how would Germany be prevented from ever threatening Europe again? A few other minor concerns would also need addressing, such as when Stalin would be ready to invade the Japanese Empire and what minor territorial concessions were to be made.
One thing was certain, however. As paranoid as Stalin remained, his Western friends honored all of his demands thus far. He still remained the ruthless dictator he was, but Stalin went to Prague with more genuine good faith. This cause concern in Britain and the United States, where anti-communist sentiment still existed. The honeymoon period had not ended, but the Red Scare was slowly losing its dormancy. The ongoing Pacific Theatre was the main factor in keeping anticommunist sentiment down. Not everyone was happy, however. Patton remained livid at the cost of Soviet friendship: eastern Germany. While his view was the minority one, General Patton was the spokesman for anti-Soviet sentiment in the Western Allies, and this continued friendship would keep him fanatical about it.
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