Watching From San Diego - A Two for One July 20th 1944 TL

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With the war in Europe over we can expect a major bump in the polls for Roosevelt but Dewey can counter with a "Win the Peace" mantra and the need for younger " More Vigorous " leadership.
Dewey with really nothing to lose can float a "Conditional Peace Offer" to Japan that acknowledges that Japan lost but it will allow for Japan to save some face.
Watch for Labor Unions to break the No-Strike pledge and businesses to start raising prices despite war time price controls.
After the V-E Day celebrations die down the American people may get mad because they can't buy a steak, a new car, or gas for that car.
There is a reason for the saying that a week is a long time in politics.
The big factor may be a demand by American soldiers in Europe to come home immediately but are finding out they are going to be shipped to the Pacific Theater.
Remember this phrase: O.H.I.O. "Over the Hill In October".
 
With the war in Europe over we can expect a major bump in the polls for Roosevelt but Dewey can counter with a "Win the Peace" mantra and the need for younger " More Vigorous " leadership.
Dewey with really nothing to lose can float a "Conditional Peace Offer" to Japan that acknowledges that Japan lost but it will allow for Japan to save some face.
Watch for Labor Unions to break the No-Strike pledge and businesses to start raising prices despite war time price controls.
After the V-E Day celebrations die down the American people may get mad because they can't buy a steak, a new car, or gas for that car.
There is a reason for the saying that a week is a long time in politics.
The big factor may be a demand by American soldiers in Europe to come home immediately but are finding out they are going to be shipped to the Pacific Theater.
Remember this phrase: O.H.I.O. "Over the Hill In October".
Your first paragraph is right. Are you sure a conditional peace towards the Japanese of all people is wise, especially given their imperialist frenzy? Dewey asking for that might be soon as borderline treason.
 
If the Japanese reject that offer then it's on them not Dewey and now Dewey can question Roosevelt's Pacific strategy by saying "It is time to unleash MacArthur" which implies that it is Roosevelt himself that is impeding a swift end to the war in the Pacific.
IOTL one of the big reasons for the massive Republican victory in the 1946 Midterms was the anger that many servicemen and their families felt that they weren't coming home from overseas fast enough.
 
If the Japanese reject that offer then it's on them not Dewey and now Dewey can question Roosevelt's Pacific strategy by saying "It is time to unleash MacArthur" which implies that it is Roosevelt himself that is impeding a swift end to the war in the Pacific.
IOTL one of the big reasons for the massive Republican victory in the 1946 Midterms was the anger that many servicemen and their families felt that they weren't coming home from overseas fast enough.
Well that may not directly change much in two weeks to the 1944 election but that’s good to remember, actually. Thank you.
 
American Politics October 1944
American Politics October 1944

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Americans celebrating the collapse of Nazi Germany, October 20th.
For most of October, the election remained static. The Pacific Front remained the worst issue for President Roosevelt, but minor successes with Operation Formosa helped further mitigate the pain caused by the defeats in Leyte Gulf. MacArthur was still upset, and while he made no wartime endorsement of a President, his aides practically all but confirmed that he was voting for Dewey out of spite. The European Front would be the determining factor for how well Roosevelt performed. Speaking of, how did Americans respond to American victory in Europe?

Naturally, the Americans were ecstatic. Half of the war was already over, and now Americans could breathe easy knowing that the world was this closer to resolution on WWII. Roosevelt campaigned heavily with his victory, finding the appeal to Americans too irresistible. Last month, Dewey used the war to hit Roosevelt hard on the campaign trail. Now, the tables have turned. VE Day was a huge celebration nation-wide, and it began a sweet honeymoon period for the American domestic front. Transferring American soldiers were promised a few weeks rest, and limited water-testing measures were made on the East Coast to resume civilian economic production. It felt good to be an American again.

Dewey tried to mitigate this news by promising to fix post-war Europe than Roosevelt. "Win the Peace!" became the Republican slogan for the remainder of the election. Dewey argued that Roosevelt was handing too much of Europe to the Reds, and in his own words, "a Red Europe fares no better for freedom than a Nazi one." However, most American voters still saw the Soviet Union as a wartime ally instead of the great Red Menace. Not only did this sound tone deaf to the overwhelming majority of voters, the Democrats used these attacks to paint Dewey as critical of American victory. Dewey's already small electoral vote share shrank further, as only the most conservative states remained loyal. Downballot Republicans began to hurt by proxy too, with certain races flipping from GOP to Democrat for the first time.

Roosevelt gained an opportunity to cement the internationalist vote in both parties permanently when Cordell Hull resigned from the Department of State on October 30th. Glad to see the war in Europe won, Hull felt like it was time to step down for his health's sake. Meanwhile, Wendell Willkie's health began to recover to a respectable level. Roosevelt promised Willkie a seat at the table for the formation of the United Nations, but what about giving Willkie something even better? The President knew just the remedy for this question! He addressed the public via radio:

"My fellow Americans, it is with great sadness that I report Secretary of State Cordell Hull is resigning. He has served well, and remains a friend of my administration, but he has chosen to step down due to health reasons. I wish him well, and will continue to listen to his advice as a private citizen. However, America needs a new Secretary of State, and I know the perfect gentleman for this position. I nominate Wendell Willkie to replace Cordell Hull, effective immediately. Willkie is also a personal friend of mine, and showed national unity by endorsing me despite being a Republican and I a Democrat. He will continue Hull's advocacy of international strength and healing. To sum it up, Willkie is a choice to let Hull rest easy at night, knowing all will remain well in the Department of State."

Willkie was brought before the Senate for confirmation hearings on October 31st and November 1st and 2nd. He was overwhelmingly approved by the Senate's vote on Friday, November 3rd. Willkie's first actions as Secretary of State were to campaign with Roosevelt personally, cementing the victory lap until election day on November 7th. Roosevelt campaigned on reelection to keep the war going smoothly by not replacing administrations, and substantial progress in Europe to the point of victory there worked in his favor. Now that only the Japanese remain in opposition, the earlier failures in September would not be repeated again.
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Pollsters' Aggregate Prediction of the Election, Final.​
 
Pacific Front, October 1944

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Operation Comeback was not abandoned, but postponed. Admiral Nimitz felt vindicated when his plan to invade Taiwan was finally greenlit. Better late than never, they say. Unlike MacArthur's plan in the Philippines, Taiwan would be approached more slowly. First, the Americans would keep the Imperial Japanese Navy bogged down in the seas near the Bonin and Volcano Islands as well as near the Philippines and Indonesia. Next, the Americans would send the brunt of their force in the middle, towards the Taiwanese island. According to Nimitz, this would split the zone of Japan's control of the Pacific in half.

However, there were some risks inherent in invading Taiwan. The eastern half facing the open waters was rather mountainous, and only certain port cities were ideal for American invasion. Pacific Command decided to take these anyway, but focus on the southwest of the island. If possible, the Americans could starve the Japanese on the eastern coasts and quickly invade to Taipei, the capital, from the west. It seemed risky, but with the Japanese concentrated in their home seas and in the Leyte Gulf, a unique opportunity came. Plus, the Japanese pre-emptively sailed several ships west towards India, knowing the now unoccupied British could freely sail through the Suez with Germany knocked out. The British promised to quickly open up the Indian front again to distract the Japanese.

Progress, while extremely slow, proved beneficial for the Americans. Pretending to attack the Philippines again, the Japanese quickly reactivated the Musashi and set it sail around the island of Palau. The Americans decided to get ballsy and send out the USS Enterprise against the Musashi. Neither ship sunk during October, but the Japanese and Americans would play a naval tug-o-war between the Enterprise and Musashi. Neither ship was able to best each other, but continued to distinguish themselves as the best naval ships of their respective nations. Other aircraft carries were deployed north of the Mariana Islands, and despite some bloody battles, overall proved successful to keep the Japanese from reinforcing their southern flank. In the confusion, the Japanese Navy decided to keep their Indian Ocean reinforcements there, hoping that they could hold against the Americans and the incoming British.

At the cost of some more heavy American causalities, the gambit seemed to pay off for now. After nearly two weeks on painful naval battles, American Marines landed in the Filipino town of Itbayat. Led by General MacArthur, it seemed like a small consolation prize to technically land in the Philippines. Two days later, the Americans staged a double landing in Basco and Sabtang. None of the Japanese forces surrendered in the Batanes by the start of November, but the Americans were making substantial ground. By October 28th, American vessels reached Orchid Island. No landing was made in October, but the US Army and Naval Air Corps kept Orchid and the surrounding islands free of kamikaze attacks.

This stage of the Pacific Front saw a restoration of morale by the camaraderie of servicemen facing the toughest times in the war in the Pacific yet. An American aviator by the name of George H.W. Bush, who narrowly survived Wake Island, distinguished himself again by completing a round of missions near Orchid Island on Halloween. During this trip, he rescued a badly wounded Marine by the name of Joseph McCarthy and flew him to a field medical tent back on Guam. Originally, McCarthy viewed the war as an opportunistic way to get his name known and become famous. However, McCarthy was forced to leave the relative safety of the Solomon Islands for the Leyte Gulf in August and September. He was captured briefly by Japanese soldiers in the Philippines, who subjected him to some of the worst horrors of man. McCarthy was reported to have cried like a baby in Bush's arms. McCarthy, in a state of pure shock and fear, was begging for his life. When he recovered, Bush and McCarthy took an energetic photo. The two would become friends for life, and those who knew of McCarthy stated he had fundamentally changed from those few days.​
 
American Marines landed in the Filipino town of Itbayat. Led by General MacArthur, it seemed like a small consolation prize to technically land in the Philippines. Two days later, the Americans staged a double landing in Basco and Sabtang. None of the Japanese forces surrendered in the Batanes by the start of November, but the Americans were making substantial ground. By October 28th, American vessels reached Orchid Island. No landing was made in October, but the US Army and Naval Air Corps kept Orchid and the surrounding islands free of kamikaze attacks.
So the OTL landmark of the MacArthur landing would not be in Leyte but Itbayat.
This stage of the Pacific Front saw a restoration of morale by the camaraderie of servicemen facing the toughest times in the war in the Pacific yet. An American aviator by the name of George H.W. Bush, who narrowly survived Wake Island, distinguished himself again by completing a round of missions near Orchid Island on Halloween. During this trip, he rescued a badly wounded Marine by the name of Joseph McCarthy and flew him to a field medical tent back on Guam. Originally, McCarthy viewed the war as an opportunistic way to get his name known and become famous. However, McCarthy was forced to leave the relative safety of the Solomon Islands for the Leyte Gulf in August and September. He was captured briefly by Japanese soldiers in the Philippines, who subjected him to some of the worst horrors of man. McCarthy was reported to have cried like a baby in Bush's arms. McCarthy, in a state of pure shock and fear, was begging for his life. When he recovered, Bush and McCarthy took an energetic photo. The two would become friends for life, and those who knew of McCarthy stated he had fundamentally changed from those few days.
I wonder what the butterflies here would be. Perhaps George W. Bush Jr. would be born as a different person.
 
So the OTL landmark of the MacArthur landing would not be in Leyte but Itbayat.

I wonder what the butterflies here would be. Perhaps George W. Bush Jr. would be born as a different person.

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"I'm sorry boys, but this don't count as bein' back to me." - Douglas MacArthur, October 1944
Normally I don't get into personal stories in this TL unless I feel like it benefits the TL at large, like with the conversation between Willkie and Roosevelt.​
 
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"I'm sorry boys, but this don't count as bein' back to me." - Douglas MacArthur, October 1944
Normally I don't get into personal stories in this TL unless I feel like it benefits the TL at large, like with the conversation between Willkie and Roosevelt.​
Itbayat would be the provisional capital of the Philippines. President Osmena would oversee the liberation of his country (since President Quezon would have died in August 1944 as per OTL).
 
Itbayat would be the provisional capital of the Philippines. President Osmena would oversee the liberation of his country (since President Quezon would have died in August 1944 as per OTL).
Now I am curious at the butterflies this entails, if any.
 
Now I am curious at the butterflies this entails, if any.
Since the landing is in Luzon, the Americans will avenge the loss of Bataan and Corregidor much earlier. Manila may be liberated earlier as well. Now I need to know if General Yamashita would command the defense of Luzon as per OTL.
 
Since the landing is in Luzon, the Americans will avenge the loss of Bataan and Corregidor much earlier. Manila may be liberated earlier as well. Now I need to know if General Yamashita would command the defense of Luzon as per OTL.
So this may be a blessing in disguise, despite the embarrassment from September?
 
U.S. Presidential Election: November 7th, 1944
U.S. Presidential Election: November 7th, 1944

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No one seriously expected Dewey to defeat Roosevelt. The question was, instead, how well would Dewey perform? If Dewey kept the margins close, he could get the GOP closer to rule Congress come 1946. Better yet, if he kept the margins close, it could propel him to be the heir apparent for the Republican nomination in 1948. Only the most die-hard Republicans, anti-communists, and infuriated Generals expected a Roosevelt defeat. Roosevelt was declared victor relatively early in the evening by the media, and what everyone saw shocked them. Roosevelt not only won, but won in a landslide!

The victory against Goering's Germany and the other European Axis Powers propelled Roosevelt to his second best victory in all four elections, only bested by his campaign against Alf Landon in 1936. Several states expected to go to Dewey up until election Day, states like North Dakota, Wyoming, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Connecticut, narrowly went to Roosevelt. Indiana and New Hampshire barely went to Dewey, as Roosevelt was within a percentage point victory wise in each state. Dewey enjoyed a small uptick in the Pacific Coast states, given the mixed performance in the Pacific Theatre and an increase in the Asian-American vote, but it yielded no fruit. News of Germany's defeat, limited amount of civilian business reopening in the East Coast, and successes near Formosa kept FDR's coveted landslide a possibility and made it realized. (West Coast residents would grow somewhat angry at the calmness and luxury enjoyed by the East Coast, but that would not occur until well after the war ended.) Roosevelt earned around 56.5% of the popular vote to Dewey's 42.6%.

The magnificent performance by Roosevelt spelled doom for down ballot Republicans. Senator Robert Taft of Ohio, expected to have narrowly won re-election, narrowly lost it against his Democratic challenger. Democratic Senators in Iowa and Missouri, trailing their Republican opponents, won out in close but comfortable victories. Two states that Dewey won, Indiana and New Hampshire, saw Democratic victories by margins similarly narrow to Ohio. The Republicans kept damage relatively minimal, however, with victories in states like Wisconsin, New Jersey, Colorado, and Oregon. This gave the Democrats a net four gains in the Senate, going from 58 seats to a more commanding 62.
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Bright blue (Democrats) and bright red (Republicans) indicates a hold for the party. Darker colors indicate a win against the other party, respectively.
The House elections similarly went well for the Democrats. Though the Democrats lost some seats, they made a net gain of 24. The narrow Democratic majority was bolstered from a narrow 222 before to a stronger 246. Speaker of House Sam Rayburn was please to see Democratic control of the House would not only continue, but become healthier. He made a special appearance with President Roosevelt later in November, where the President and economist Donald Nelson promised enough civilian enterprise to ensure a decent Christmas for all Americans.

Other than a reconfirmation of State Secretary Willkie, Roosevelt had yet to restructure the rest of his Cabinet after Election Night. He was focused on giving his acceptance speech and preparing for the Prague Conference. Thanks to Roosevelt's current trip to Prague, Vice President Wallace enjoyed considerable influence in deciding the next Presidential Cabinet. Some conservatives were dismayed, but the ongoing war gave Wallace the time to let his voice be heard without serious opposition. It was obvious the Democrats were in charge again, and a soundly defeated Dewey conceded and went back to New York, bitter and unsure of ever running for President again.​
 
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The Americans decided to get ballsy and send out the USS Enterprise against the Musashi. Neither ship sunk during October, but the Japanese and Americans would play a naval tug-o-war between the Enterprise and Musashi. Neither ship was able to best each other, but continued to distinguish themselves as the best naval ships of their respective nations.
I love any scenario where the Big E making a name for itself. But why would Nimitz (and considering the time frame Halsey and Mitscher) only send one Fleet Carrier after a Super Battleship? Musashi required 5 waves from 6 carriers to sink at the Battle of Leyte Gulf. Yamato needed 8 carriers plus 386 aircraft in 4 waves to sink in Operation Ten-Go.
 
I love any scenario where the Big E making a name for itself. But why would Nimitz (and considering the time frame Halsey and Mitscher) only send one Fleet Carrier after a Super Battleship? Musashi required 5 waves from 6 carriers to sink at the Battle of Leyte Gulf. Yamato needed 8 carriers plus 386 aircraft in 4 waves to sink in Operation Ten-Go.
Any suggestions to buff its chances?
 
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