Was it surprising Argentina didn't become a decent size power or at least a dominant economy?

On the other hand, not being locked out of the "Imperial Preference" may soften the blow Argentina experienced iOTL.
Maybe? Honestly it all depends on hard to define factors and developments. I would read a TL dealing with that but I'm not sue we can realistically predict the outcome.

Honestly "Make it so that coups don't become sn acceptable way to remove a government would be the best change I can think of to make Argentina better. It would save us from institutional weakness and peronism in the same stroke.
 
Yeeeah... No. Even if Argentina didn't fuck up during the 1900's at best we would be a Western Europe economy, no way in hell we would annex our neighbors (or want to). At best we anschluss with Uruguay if they really wanted to by in that case our economies would be so interwoven that it would be an academic difference at best.

Also in case anyone is curious there is this TL by @minifidel which has a successful "Argentina" (more like a surviving United Provinces) and while it has some issues it's a fun short read.
Argentina has tried in the past to restore the Viceroyalty de la Plata and conflicts have resulted - Cisplatine war, Paraguayan War, and a few others.
 
Caveat: Brazil failed at import substitution(which is what I thought you meant) as well, but failed at it just short of the objective(that's in part what the 1980's were in Brazil, the failure of the import substitution model).

I don't claim to know all reasons why, but one of those was the fact Argentina is a much smaller market than Brazil(even today, Argentinean population is less than 1/4 of the Brazilian one). In fact, Argentina is small enough, in terms of population, that following the NZ model of an economy based on agricultural exports is tempting(although Argentina might now be too big for that). Anyway, a better bet for Argentina may have been selective import substitution, instead of going full-out on it. But the spirit of the times favored going for autarky...

Uh,

I wouldn't say that Brazil failed at it, we just didn't reached complete autarky
 
Argentina has tried in the past to restore the Viceroyalty de la Plata and conflicts have resulted - Cisplatine war, Paraguayan War, and a few others.

The Cisplatine War was before Uruguay became an indepedent country but at the time Uruguay was still seen as a part of Argentina/United Provinces, and the Paraguayan War was more complex than that, but it surely didn't involve irredentism as a major factor. In fact, Argentina was busy losing time in pointless civil wars, and the leaders of the time that could have attempted the restoration of the former United Provinces like Rosas or Mitre didn't do it for some reason or another. Though I do recall an attempt of a partition of Paraguay between Argentina and Brazil, but it wasn't the main objetive of the war by far.

That's pre-1900. Post-1900, there were no attempts at irredentism targeting Uruguay, Paraguay or Bolivia that I know of. Which is rather strange, come to think about it, in an age of rampant nationalism.

My best guess is that the leadership of the time was busy with Patagonia (including the South Atlantic Islands) and Chaco (in fact, I think there were complains that Argentina was managing TOO much land at the time) and didn't want to risk a British or Brazilian (maybe even Chilean or US) intervention if they went expansionist against the neighbors. After WWII, taking random countries was a big no-no, and the borders of South America were fixed way before then anyways.

An expansionist Argentina in the XX century would make for an interesting TL, but I think it would inevitably end with conflict with Brazil and the Triple Alliance War 2 with us in the recieving end this time.
 
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That's pre-1900. Post-1900, there were no attempts at irredentism targeting Uruguay, Paraguay or Bolivia that I know of. Which is rather strange, come to think about it, in an age of rampant nationalism.

My best guess is that the leadership of the time was busy with Patagonia (including the South Atlantic Islands) and Chaco (in fact, I think there were complains that Argentina was managing TOO much land at the time) and didn't want to risk a British or Brazilian (maybe even Chilean or US) intervention if they went expansionist against the neighbors. After WWII, taking random countries was a big no-no, and the borders of South America were fixed way before then anyways.
I mean there is that but there is also the lack of interest. All the would be dictators who could have started any such war would first need to create the necessary narrative for said wars and that narrative simply did not exist. So I assume everyone was smart enough to know that it was basically not worth the effort or it would not pay out in time for them to enjoy it.

Unlike Germany and Austria, Elsass Lothringen or Italy and their irredentism, Argentina lacked a previous narrative to which the politicians could latch onto. What's more, I feel like the people actually didn't want nothing to do with the bordering countries, the heigh of our ambition would be southern Chile at most.
 
Uh,

I wouldn't say that Brazil failed at it, we just didn't reached complete autarky
That was the point of the import substitution policy - the plan was to have a complete industrial sector, from the most basic transformation industries to the most advanced ones. Brazil failed in creating the latter - the government went broke before being able to build a sufficiently robust high-tech sector, as well as what was needed to support it.
 
Everyone seems to agree that Argentina has had a disastrous last 100 years, and the instability brought on by regular coups and military and/or Fascist dictatorships (upon further reading I concede the point, @deathstrokenorris ) is the main culprit.

Even with all this, Argentina is Latin America's top nation in Inequality-Adjusted HDI as of 2020, a full .020 ahead of Chile.

I think this alone shows how much potential Argentina has/had.
 

MatthewDB

Banned
Is there any country south of Texas that has found long-term political and economic success and stability? It seems that being a former colony of Spain equals an eternity of political and economic corruption and failure. By eschewing a military, Costa Rica has remained somewhat stable. The rest? Maybe those that were not ruled by Spain, namely Brazil, Belize, Guyana (Br and Fr), and Suriname.
 
It seems that being a former colony of Spain equals an eternity of political and economic corruption and failure.
The 19th century called and wants its political theory back. If the USA had been pushing for a unified continental economic sphere, rather than keeping the countries of Latin America down "all for the better to exploit your resources and labour, my dear" there may be a very different result.

Again, considering everything the countries of Latin America have been through, their current situation actually seems quite impressive.
 
Even with all this, Argentina is Latin America's top nation in Inequality-Adjusted HDI as of 2020, a full .020 ahead of Chile
Yeah...
17c.png


I'm pretty sure that if we looked at basically any indicator (from wages to % of poverty) we won't be better off than Chile. The HDI if I'm not mistaken takes into account things like "education" and life expectancy and let's just say that one is kinda meaningless and the other takes time to shift.

Is there any country south of Texas that has found long-term political and economic success and stability? It seems that being a former colony of Spain equals an eternity of political and economic corruption and failure. By eschewing a military, Costa Rica has remained somewhat stable. The rest? Maybe those that were not ruled by Spain, namely Brazil, Belize, Guyana (Br and Fr), and Suriname.
Eh, it is the other way around. The situations of the 19 and 20th centuries were ripe for chaos and failure, the US doing well is the exception and not the other way around. On average during the las 200 years more countries gaved fucked up than succeeded. Add to that the US egging us on to fucking up (which mind you, isn't the US fault as at the end of the day it was.us who carried out the stupidity) and things start making more sense.

Regardless, Latam seems to be unfucking itself as of late. Some exceptions aside (Argentina, Venezuela, etc) the rest of the continent seems to finally be walking forward.

Sadly Argentina will never be one or those for reasons already raised. Alas the world is such a cruel place!
 
Yeah...
17c.png


I'm pretty sure that if we looked at basically any indicator (from wages to % of poverty) we won't be better off than Chile. The HDI if I'm not mistaken takes into account things like "education" and life expectancy and let's just say that one is kinda meaningless and the other takes time to shift.
Correct. Child's HDI tops Argentina's. Inequality-adjusted HDI is a function of HDI, reduced to reflect inequalities, and in this particular circumstance seems to reflect the real gap in HDI between Chile's European and Amerindian populations.

I agree, though, these measures are imperfect and should be taken with a grain of salt. But after everything Argentina's been through, it's still miles ahead of Bolivia, or Paraguay, for example...

Even after a disastrous century it's still well within the top half of places to live, globally speaking.
 
Correct. Child's HDI tops Argentina's. Inequality-adjusted HDI is a function of HDI, reduced to reflect inequalities, and in this particular circumstance seems to reflect the real gap in HDI between Chile's European and Amerindian populations.

I agree, though, these measures are imperfect and should be taken with a grain of salt. But after everything Argentina's been through, it's still miles ahead of Bolivia, or Paraguay, for example...

Even after a disastrous century it's still well within the top half of places to live, globally speaking.
That's not much of an achievement. Most of the world's a shithole. It's like living in a country with 50% poverty and saying "well, I'm lucky" because you can scrape by into the other 50%.

Also as things are going all those countries will be better off than us in no time. At least assuming they don't fuck up.
 
Argentina needs to do the following economic and political policies to restore its desired growth and development and have itself converged its GDP per capita and HDI to Spain, Italy, and New Zealand levels:
  1. Implement a long-term bipartisan economic policy that is based on Argentina's comparative advantage in natural and human resources, which means that it should pursue export-oriented industrialization focusing on agricultural, energy, and technological exports (import substitution industrialization must be discarded once and for all). Argentine economic planners should institute a goal of 5% GDP growth for the next 50 years, in order to attain the GDP per capita and HDI level of Spain, Italy, and New Zealand.
  2. Implement political and electoral reforms that would curtail Buenos Aires suburbs' grip in Argentine politics like amalgamating all Buenos Aires suburb counties and the Buenos Aires city proper into a single political entity and they must be separated from the Buenos Aires Province (interior). Transfer the federal capital to Viedma, in order to facilitate population decentralization of Argentina where Patagonia has to be populated.
  3. Invest more in infrastructure like bringing back pre-Peron railway networks across Argentina, to encourage more Argentines living in Buenos Aire to settle in the interior. Argentina's population has to be doubled to around 100 million, in order to gain enough economies of scale necessary for industrial-based economic growth and development which should be complemented by a comprehensive land reform where large estates have to be broken up and there, Argentina should become a country of small or middle-scale landowners instead of urban-based industrial workers prone to populism.
  4. Institute a political reform that would give representation in the Chamber of Deputies based on geographical districts (circunscripción uninomimal) instead of the pure party-list system Argentina has. Consider a shift from the presidential to the parliamentary system at federal and provincial levels. Stipulate a constitutional provision that limits public sector spending to 25-30% of GDP and zero budget deficit except for recession years.
  5. Institute a foreign policy that doesn't antagonize the superpower of the day where Argentina should forge free trade agreements with many countries as possible. Argentina should try to forge a custom union-type economic integration with the European Union similar to between Australia and New Zealand (Trans-Tasman Agreement) or between the European Union and Turkey.
 
Typically when someone says an economic theory or political idea has been "debunked", it hasn't really been debunked, they just hold the opposing position ideologically. There are circumstances when thats not the case, but it usually holds true.

That may be so, but I can't take responsibility for the poor arguments for others.

In general, any economic theory from before the era of mass computing (when very large datasets could be analyzed on a budget accessible to university economics departments and when the internet made datasets more widely available) is probably seriously wrong in some particular. Whether the theory was a darling of the left or the right behavioral economics and serious computer modeling and statistical analysis based on actual real world data (rather than the rather simplistic mental experiments that were possible before) have been knocking over fundamental pillars hither and yon.

So you are saying the problem was the level of education in Argentina?

What I am saying is that Argentina has followed an economic and political trajectory on par with other states that started the 20th Century with similar literacy levels. The evidence is very strong that had each generation been better educated, Argentina would have had higher growth rates and better political stability over the 20th Century.

Of course, the state of Argentine education in 1900 grew out of the kind of 19th Century Argentina had. The long civil war between the Federalists and the Unionists, the tensions between the powerful city of Buenos Aires and the provincial elites, between the cuadillos and the government all took their toll. That said, Argentina did have a series of fairly competent governments at the end of the 19th Century and the start of the 20th Century, so their problems in the 20th Century weren't predestined - I think things would have been much better had the country avoided the "Infamous decade" of 1930-1943 where instead of a competent response to the Great Depression Argentina got a coup and more than a decade of government-backed anti-Semitism and anti-Catalanism, flirtations with Fascism and Nazism, and the most extreme corruption in favour of the beef industry and the British who were the main importers of Argentine beef.

That said, Argentina was hardly alone in falling into the hands of self-destructive extremists during the Great Depression. Regimes across Europe and South America - especially in poorer countries with lower literacy rates - would do similar things. So while Argentina certainly had another path available and could have taken it, we shouldn't think that it was some special Argentine failing that led to the country falling to Uriburu and his successors.

I don't have a particularly good view of Peron either, but I think he is overly blamed for Argentina's problems. The man is the source of some of Argentina's problems, but not all of them.

Personally, I wonder if part of Argentina's problem has also been that it was peripheral. In Europe and East Asia, the United States and in time the EU played a big role in rescuing countries that had fallen to self-destructive extremist regimes. If Spain were part of South America, not Europe, might its economy and politics look more like those of Brazil and Argentina today? I suspect it might.

The tl;dr of this is that Argentina has behaved like most countries that started 1900 with less than 60% literacy have, but that there were opportunities to overshoot the pack that were missed.

What were the factual inaccuracies and debunked economic theories in the video?

I went through my period of enjoying VisualPolitik years ago (as a Falkland Islander, the VisualPolitik videos on Argentina used to be a guilty pleasure since they paint a picture of a country so messed up that we Islanders don't need to worry about what is a hostile neighbour even now...) and now Simon Whistler's presenting style is just very aggravating to me. So please excuse that I won't be doing a detailed takedown of the material.

In general, it misrepresents the history of Argentina, missing out the context for why Argentina reached a high in prosperity in the early 20th Century (namely, there was a commodities boom followed by WW1) and why Peron formulated the ideas he did and why those were attractive to millions of voters (basically, the Infamous decade and the extreme classism and anti-immigrant sentiment of Argentina at the time). I don't remember the VisualPolitik series delving into the Infamous decade at all, and that is a BIG omission, nor do I remember it really examining the sins of Argentina's military governments and the economic consequences of those sins. How the international community, especially the British and the US, treated Argentina could also use more discussion. Argentina has for most of the 20th Century been very exposed to the ups and down of foreign trade (and when it has been less exposed, this had been under unsustainable regimes) and to neglect what was happening in international trade and credit markets when talking about Argentina's economy and the history of its debt is... Well, it is a serious omission.

Taken all together, the omissions in the VisualPolitik series are so severe that they are either a testament to towering ignorance, or the writers of the material wish to paint a false picture of Argentine history. Or maybe it is a little of both.

As for debunked theories, as I mentioned before, most older economic theories don't add up now that we have the data and the cheap modeling to really test them. Add to that, I can't think a single time when the sort of IMF-favored policies that VisualPolitik's writers like have actually worked in the real world. (Though one can make the case that in some cases these policies can work as a short-term measure to demonstrate determination and political strength, and such policies can be used to deflate a bubble before it grows too large, as a measure to stimulate economic recovery, they have never worked.)

The video Matti posted a link to is a much better starting point:


fasquardon
 
That may be so, but I can't take responsibility for the poor arguments for others.

In general, any economic theory from before the era of mass computing (when very large datasets could be analyzed on a budget accessible to university economics departments and when the internet made datasets more widely available) is probably seriously wrong in some particular. Whether the theory was a darling of the left or the right behavioral economics and serious computer modeling and statistical analysis based on actual real world data (rather than the rather simplistic mental experiments that were possible before) have been knocking over fundamental pillars hither and yon.



What I am saying is that Argentina has followed an economic and political trajectory on par with other states that started the 20th Century with similar literacy levels. The evidence is very strong that had each generation been better educated, Argentina would have had higher growth rates and better political stability over the 20th Century.

Of course, the state of Argentine education in 1900 grew out of the kind of 19th Century Argentina had. The long civil war between the Federalists and the Unionists, the tensions between the powerful city of Buenos Aires and the provincial elites, between the cuadillos and the government all took their toll. That said, Argentina did have a series of fairly competent governments at the end of the 19th Century and the start of the 20th Century, so their problems in the 20th Century weren't predestined - I think things would have been much better had the country avoided the "Infamous decade" of 1930-1943 where instead of a competent response to the Great Depression Argentina got a coup and more than a decade of government-backed anti-Semitism and anti-Catalanism, flirtations with Fascism and Nazism, and the most extreme corruption in favour of the beef industry and the British who were the main importers of Argentine beef.

That said, Argentina was hardly alone in falling into the hands of self-destructive extremists during the Great Depression. Regimes across Europe and South America - especially in poorer countries with lower literacy rates - would do similar things. So while Argentina certainly had another path available and could have taken it, we shouldn't think that it was some special Argentine failing that led to the country falling to Uriburu and his successors.

I don't have a particularly good view of Peron either, but I think he is overly blamed for Argentina's problems. The man is the source of some of Argentina's problems, but not all of them.

Personally, I wonder if part of Argentina's problem has also been that it was peripheral. In Europe and East Asia, the United States and in time the EU played a big role in rescuing countries that had fallen to self-destructive extremist regimes. If Spain were part of South America, not Europe, might its economy and politics look more like those of Brazil and Argentina today? I suspect it might.

The tl;dr of this is that Argentina has behaved like most countries that started 1900 with less than 60% literacy have, but that there were opportunities to overshoot the pack that were missed.



I went through my period of enjoying VisualPolitik years ago (as a Falkland Islander, the VisualPolitik videos on Argentina used to be a guilty pleasure since they paint a picture of a country so messed up that we Islanders don't need to worry about what is a hostile neighbour even now...) and now Simon Whistler's presenting style is just very aggravating to me. So please excuse that I won't be doing a detailed takedown of the material.

In general, it misrepresents the history of Argentina, missing out the context for why Argentina reached a high in prosperity in the early 20th Century (namely, there was a commodities boom followed by WW1) and why Peron formulated the ideas he did and why those were attractive to millions of voters (basically, the Infamous decade and the extreme classism and anti-immigrant sentiment of Argentina at the time). I don't remember the VisualPolitik series delving into the Infamous decade at all, and that is a BIG omission, nor do I remember it really examining the sins of Argentina's military governments and the economic consequences of those sins. How the international community, especially the British and the US, treated Argentina could also use more discussion. Argentina has for most of the 20th Century been very exposed to the ups and down of foreign trade (and when it has been less exposed, this had been under unsustainable regimes) and to neglect what was happening in international trade and credit markets when talking about Argentina's economy and the history of its debt is... Well, it is a serious omission.

Taken all together, the omissions in the VisualPolitik series are so severe that they are either a testament to towering ignorance, or the writers of the material wish to paint a false picture of Argentine history. Or maybe it is a little of both.

As for debunked theories, as I mentioned before, most older economic theories don't add up now that we have the data and the cheap modeling to really test them. Add to that, I can't think a single time when the sort of IMF-favored policies that VisualPolitik's writers like have actually worked in the real world. (Though one can make the case that in some cases these policies can work as a short-term measure to demonstrate determination and political strength, and such policies can be used to deflate a bubble before it grows too large, as a measure to stimulate economic recovery, they have never worked.)

The video Matti posted a link to is a much better starting point:



fasquardon
The video is interesting as it shows how much of the good farmland in Argentina is owned a small number of families.
That is my opinion was bound to lead to trouble.
 
I know this may come across as surprising but farmland nowadays is owned by gigantic corporations or mega rich dudes. The "small landowner" is a fucking joke, be it here or in the US. Small farms are simply not viable anymore.



Also @Joseph Solis in Australia I love your post. I agree with a lot of what you said but I honestly cannot take you seriously when you drop in such a matter of fact manner a bunch of impossibilities and outright ridiculous suggestions. A 50 years plan? The governments basically breaking their own power base? Are you aware of how fucking insane what you are suggesting is? Most countries governments can barely look 5 years down the line and Argentina's can look five minutes forward on a good day and there has yet to exist one government which would purposefully weaken itself.

There is more stupid stuff but this is just plain ridiculous.
 
I know this may come across as surprising but farmland nowadays is owned by gigantic corporations or mega rich dudes. The "small landowner" is a fucking joke, be it here or in the US. Small farms are simply not viable anymore.



Also @Joseph Solis in Australia I love your post. I agree with a lot of what you said but I honestly cannot take you seriously when you drop in such a matter of fact manner a bunch of impossibilities and outright ridiculous suggestions. A 50 years plan? The governments basically breaking their own power base? Are you aware of how fucking insane what you are suggesting is? Most countries governments can barely look 5 years down the line and Argentina's can look five minutes forward on a good day and there has yet to exist one government which would purposefully weaken itself.

There is more stupid stuff but this is just plain ridiculous.
No gigantic corporations or mega-rich dudes in Ireland owning farms.
In America, a lot of farmland is owned by the Federal government and rented to farmers.
450px-Map_of_all_U.S._Federal_Land.jpg

Looks like the Federal government is one the biggest landowners in America.
 
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I've never said it was random or had not basis in anything. I've said that it transcended rational response and has become a cultural reaction at this point, thus a literal obsession. No country in the world is so obssesed with its exchange rates for foreign currency. Not even during periods of economic recovery has the thirst for the dollar stopped. The country must be set in a growth path again and desdolarized, and stop having foreign currency used in the inner market, where it has no business being.

"Cutting the middleman" and becoming a US economical possesion is no solution, either, and I would personally be on the streets to remove whatever goverment takes that stupid step.

I've also become rather skeptical, after decades of the same preaching of "WELL THAT'S BECAUSE ARGENTINA ISN'T FRIENDLY WITH THE MARKETS", or "WELL YOU SHOULD HAVE ADOPTED A DECENT ECONOMIC POLICY". Like that has never happened. Like I've said, Argentina was governed by liberal and neoliberal goverments for a long time, from Macri, to De La Rúa, to Menem, to the neoliberal policies of the Proceso, and so on, who did everything Mr. Market wanted: cutting spending, liberalization, letting currency exchange do whatever it wanted, privatization, free imports/exports...

The only reward we got from all those neoliberal experiments was misery.

If you say that there's nothing to lose, well, I'll throw my hat with the populists. At least they've managed to stabilize the situation and even achieve growth in many areas, instead of selling us out for nothing.

Do you suppose that might be because people correctly believe even in good economic times that the government is going to shit the bed in 5-10 years and their savings will be gone or worthless if they’re denominated in pesos? You know, based on everything that’s happened in Argentina for the past 100 years, and what is in fact happening at this very moment with its latest sovereign default?

If the U.S. wanted Argentina to be its economic possession, it literally couldn’t do better than to have them keep the peso. As you say, people down there are disproportionately desperate for dollars out of a desire to be paid with something that will hold its value, and the exchange rate is awesome for American companies and individuals because of the peso’s inflation. Just changing to the dollar outright would alleviate that at least somewhat.

Argentina has never really made an effort to adopt a free market. It’s ranked 126th globally in ease of doing business rankings, there’s heavy protectionism, it’s one of the most expensive countries in the world to hire or hire people, and the economy is extremely top-heavy and stifled by the government. It improved in the 90s versus before, but those fundamental issues never went away. Neoliberalism doesn’t mean just selling off state assets in corrupt fire sales to government cronies like Russia and Argentina did in the 1990s, it means genuinely free trade and movement of capital, strong private property rights, investment flexibility, etc. The countries where “neoliberalism” was supposedly such a disaster according to leftwing people on the internet never did that. The ones that did do that did quite well.

Is there any country south of Texas that has found long-term political and economic success and stability? It seems that being a former colony of Spain equals an eternity of political and economic corruption and failure. By eschewing a military, Costa Rica has remained somewhat stable. The rest? Maybe those that were not ruled by Spain, namely Brazil, Belize, Guyana (Br and Fr), and Suriname.

Chile, and I think you could say that Colombia is going in the right direction. The conflict with the FARC is over, the country’s been democratic for a long time, and the fight against crime is going in the right direction. Panama has been stable, democratic, and economically very healthy since Noriega got the boot. Uruguay. The idea that countries that were British colonies are somehow way better off because of Superior Anglo Governance Culture(TM) is a myth.
 
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