Was Austria-Hungary really doomed?

[SuperCalifraga]

The common perception is that the Habsburg state was doomed to disintegrate since it had so many ethnic groups, and WW1 simply sped up the process.
However it seems like this idea was popularized much latter in order to justify Austria-Hungary's destruction.
I believe that the level of separatism in Austria-Hungary is totally exaggerated and as long as Habsburgs stay out of any wars they can survive.

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

I think OTL Yugoslavia might be a good comparison.

Yugoslavia was an union of nations that had severe grudges with each other, but were joined together by a semi-prosperous economy, unifying ideology, competent leadership and nationalism being kept in the background by giving nations at least some representation in the, well, national level. Once several of these factors were gone, it all blew up.

How does A-H compare in this scenario?

 

[wcv215]

Doomed? No, but I do think that it was likely. Not necessarily because of seperatism though, but rather because of problems between the Habsburg government and the Hungarians.

 

[lukedalton]

The common perception is that the Habsburg state was doomed to disintegrate since it had so many ethnic groups, and WW1 simply sped up the process.
However it seems like this idea was popularized much latter in order to justify Austria-Hungary's destruction.
I believe that the level of separatism in Austria-Hungary is totally exaggerated and as long as Habsburgs stay out of any wars they can survive.

The problem with A-H is that the leadership know that there were problem, it seemed more like the EU than a nation and instead to try to solve it...they prefer kick the can; sure without the war A-H will have lasted much longer but in the end if not resolved such problem with have exploded

 

[Gannt the chartist]

The common perception is that the Habsburg state was doomed to disintegrate since it had so many ethnic groups, and WW1 simply sped up the process.
However it seems like this idea was popularized much latter in order to justify Austria-Hungary's destruction.
I believe that the level of separatism in Austria-Hungary is totally exaggerated and as long as Habsburgs stay out of any wars they can survive.

Its not always exaggerated but its very specific. Hungarian Nationalism ( and repressions of other nationalities) is a big thing, Czech for example not so much outside specific groups but under the very extreme pressures of war with all of your enemies exploiting anythbing they can to do harm and Wilson and his history of supporting ethnic nationalism doing the talking. It breaks apart.

Yugoslavia has been quoted but the break up of Yugoslavia features some actively evil bastards, and has the whole of WW2 with another set of actively evil bastards to fuel it. The break up of Czechoslovakia not so much.

The problem with A-H is that the leadership know that there were problem, it seemed more like the EU than a nation and instead to try to solve it...they prefer kick the can; sure without the war A-H will have lasted much longer but in the end if not resolved such problem with have exploded

I think thats slightly unfair. After 1866 the German Empire actively encouraged Hungarian seperatism and the weakening of central authority but a lot of this is tied to the Person of Franz Josef who lives forever. A new Emperor has the potential to change things but doing that runs a very real risk of war with the by now significant Hungarian army - who have the massacre of Hungarian Nationalists in 1848 to look at.

Personally I blame the French.

 

[Nivek]

As doomed as Nintendo ie NO

 

[walmart]

There are have been tons of multiethnic states throughout Human history and in the present. The collapse of Austria-Hungary into nation-states is not inevitable.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Austria-Hungary's capacity for independent military action, diplomatic autonomy, economy, and political frame work all disintegrated before the nationalists were able to declare independence.

Far from overturning the Empire via nationalist revolutions, the nationalist politicians simply stepped into the power vacuum and generally spent much more time trying to salvage and repurpose pre-existing institutions, and maintain order (especially in the case of the south Slavs, whose political leadership spent much of late 1918 praying that the Serbian army reached Zagreb before the Green Cadres could).

So, without the war time stresses that brought about Austria-Hungary's collapse, I can't really see the Nationalists taking over.

 

[The Byronic Hero]

Belgium and Switzerland have held together quite well. Just saying.

 

[Aphrodite]

Austria had its problems. They weren't necessarily fatal. The system probably would have continued along with constant tinkering.

There was a danger that the Germans and Hungarians would fight to preserve their privileges. Only if they united, would they have much hope.

The Magyar nobility was living in a fantasy and had no real support

 

[Catspoke]

The Poles would be worried about Russia.
The Croats and Slovenia worried about Italy
I suspect the Muslim population of Bosnia might prefer Austria to anyone else.
The Austrians and the Hungarians are sort of in charge.

So the multi-ethnic issue might be managed for a while. Without war Russia would become a bigger and bigger threat. As long as Austria is considered the more tolerant power of the two it would hold together,

I would suspect if Europe evolved into a sort of liberal modern day situation, Poland and Ukraine we separate states. it wouldn't surprise me if it broke apart, I mean Britain would have let Scotland go if they voted that way.

 

[marathag]

he Poles would be worried about Russia.
The Croats and Slovenia worried about Italy
I suspect the Muslim population of Bosnia might prefer Austria to anyone else.
The Austrians and the Hungarians are sort of in charge

That's why there was that loyalty to the Habsburgs. They were better than their neighbors in no micromanagement of everything.
And they didn't have state sponsored Pogroms like the Russians or Ottomans.

 

[water123]

Honestly, the fragility of AH even in the WWI period is often very overstated because having AH fall apart means you can stick a bunch of new nations there. AH is fine and could keep itself together, problem is you'd need to work out how.

 

[Bregil]

I said that it would eventually disintegrate but that is a bit misleading. Without the Entente deliberately trying to dismantle it, I don't think it would completely disintegrate. For example, I'm reasonably confident that the Czechs and the Slovenes would willingly stay with Vienna under most circumstances (as would the Slovaks and the Croats but they fell under the Hungarian crown). As others have pointed out, the Magyar nobility were the real problem to the long-term stability of the nation. They constantly vetoed reform attempts, blocked many infrastructure and defense projects, and needlessly antagonized many minority groups with their "Magyarization" policies. They may have been living in a fantasy world but they had enough clout to make life very difficult for the rest of the Empire. Without the stresses of WW1, I think the most likely outcome would be an eventual split between Austria and Hungary (and a very messy implosion of Hungary sometime after that).

 

[BeardedHoplite]

It took 4 years of hitherto unseen total war to cause the Habsburg monarchy to disentigrate. Even then as another poster above said it was not a dramatic revolution and more of the exhausted Habsburg state withering away and allowing the nationalists to take over.

Yugoslavia is also a poor analogy as from the get go it was Serbian chauvinism disguised as Slavic unity. Austria was not an equal state either but it was not to the same level as Yugoslavia.

A-H's economy was rapidly growing and if the state can make some good choices there's no reason they couldn't survive to the current day

 

[Bougnas]

If we go by @Sārthākā 's A more successful Sixtus affair? thread Austria-Hungary could possibly have survived even with a POD as late as 1917. Like with the Ottoman Empire the disintegration of A-H was mainly due to the fact that the war lasted so long with crippling damage being dealt to the point where the nationalists (be they Arab, Czechoslovakian, Hungarian or else) had no choice but to take power for themselves or had the opportunity to do so.

I think the country could survive as long as it did not suffer a comparable disaster as OTL WW1 or there was no power willing and able to dismantle it. From my understanding of the geopolitics of the time the Entente would probably have preferred a relatively united A-H to avoid disruptive wars between the different nationalities and to act as a bulwark for other great powers in the region. But OTl they were in front of a fait accompli and so tried to work around the issue by creating alliances like the Little Entente.

 

[lukedalton]

It took 4 years of hitherto unseen total war to cause the Habsburg monarchy to disentigrate. Even then as another poster above said it was not a dramatic revolution and more of the exhausted Habsburg state withering away and allowing the nationalists to take over.

The problem is not the war, collapse during the war is not so frequent and you need some special circumstance like Russia 1917 and Italy 1943 with the central authority basically collapsing on hiw own...the problem is the immediate moment the bullet stop

 

[thezerech]

I don't think Austria-Hungary was doomed necessarily, but I think it could not survive WWI in its pre-war form. What I mean is that Habsburg power could survive, but they needed to adapt. The Slavic peoples of the Empire had little reason to support the Habsburgs. The Ukrainians and Poles vastly preferred the Habsburgs to the Russians, and the Slovenians preferred the Austrians to the Italians, but that's not sustainable in my opinion, you really need to federalize or nationalize.

If you look at Stephan and Wilhelm von Habsburg, they represent an attempt to, in effect, "nationalize" the dynasty. By creating Habsburg branches tenable to the nationalities you have an easy vehicle for federalization of the Empire. A Catholic Croatian speaking Habsburg is probably at least as palatable to most Croats/Slovenes than an Orthodox Serbian monarch, likewise, to the Ukrainians and Poles, who always viewed Russia as an enemy and were willing to accept Austrian overlordship in their respective corners of Galicia in the short term, this is an excellent solution, until the nationalities start butting heads, of course, but that is solvable.

I think there are probably other ways to federalize the empire, but that's an underappreciated possibility that has always appealed to me.

 

[Fulton 44]

It has been very tough for multi-ethnic, multi-lingual empires to survive - the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, the USSR, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia all succumbed to the forces of nationalism. China is aware of this problem and is trying to accelerate assimilation with force. The US survives because of our melting pot, because different ethnic groups are spread throughout the country rather than being concentrated geographically in a way to facilitate a break up and because immigrants tend to learn English quickly out of economic necessity. In a way, this is our strength - the ability to assimilate - without brute force - diverse peoples coming from all over the world.

 

[Cymraeg]

Hungarian pressure for independence was increasingly growing and after the tragedy of 1848-49 there was the 'Arrangement' of 1867 that was basically a sticking plaster slapped onto a half-severed leg. Franz Ferdinand, if he had lived and there had been no WW1, would have become Kaiser and done something to reduce what he regarded as Hungarian impertinence. He loathed the Hungarians and was messing about with Trialism ideas, as opposed to the Dualism that was officially the rule of the land.
That would not have ended well. The Hungarians would have objected very strongly to having their position weakened in any way.
I think that it's fair to say that Austro-Hungary was doomed from about 1889, when the then Crown Prince Rudolf killed himself with his 17-year-old mistress, making Karl Ludwig and then his son Franz Ferdinand the heir to Franz Josef.
(Reading the history of the later Hapsburgs is akin to watching a really bad soap opera, full of 'Oh come on, that's ridiculous!' moments."