Vinland survives into the Modern Day

[Caligo]

This scenario attempts to take a sober approach to a Vinland timeline. Most other vinland timelines dream up grand continent wide Norse Empires and Norse-Indian hybrid confederations. I'll try to lay out what a reality based timeline would look like in order for Vinland, or more specifically, the Vinlandic people to survive into the modern day. The point of diversion in the timeline is a very specific event that occured in Greenland around 1000 ad. Leif Erikson returned to Greenland never to return to Vinland due to the death of his father Erik the Red's death & the plague that struck Greenland at that time required his leadership in Greenland. Sure Erik's death would have been inevitable but perhaps had this plague not hit Greenland history may have unfolded differently. Leif's younger brother Thorvald could have led Greenland after Erik's death. Leif could have continued to explore and create settlements to the west.

In the timeline Leif organizes a settlement effort with 300 men & women from Greenland as well as Iceland. They quickly find Leif's previous settlement, Leifsbudir, located on the northernmost tip of what we know as Newfoundland. Leifsbudir serves as the de facto capital for what the settlers come to define as Vinland. From the start the Norse have an antagonistic relationship with the American Indians or Skraelings. They have short military encounters with the Skraelings at the start. The Horse and Iron weapons puts the Norse at a clear advantage causing the Skraeling to migrate to the eastern & interior parts of the island. Modern scholars beleive that around 1000 ad the Beothuk numbered roughly 2,000. From 1000 to 1300 ad the native inhabitants of Vinland (Newfoundland), which we call Beothuk, go extinct due to disease, conflict & interbreeding with the Norse.

The Norse of Greenland & Iceland were converted to Catholicism around the time Vinland was founded. Leif would have seen Vinland as an Norse experiment in Christianity. Although pagan elements are surely incorporated Vinland is a foundationally Christian settlement. The Norse having iron weapons & the horse gives them a great advantage over the Skraelings, however, numbers are still not on their side. In 1300 ad the Norse of Vinland would number about 5,000. What this means is the Norse would be a bit of homebodies when it came to venturing into mainland North America or Skraelland as they would come to identify the continent as. Its endless wilderness & seemingly innumerable Skraelings population would cause the norse to see mainland north America as the "land of the other." Sure merchants, outlaws & explorers would found settlements dotting the Gulf of St. Lawrence, however, these settlements would mostly be inhabited by men & not be considered "Vinland proper."

As in our own timeline the planet would go through the mini iceage around the 1500s making life in Greenland intolerable. In this timeline however the 3,000 or so inhabitants of Greenland seek refuge to the west. This event causes the isolation of Vinland from the rest of Europe. Most of Europe just as in our own timeline was never aware of Vinland's existence. The Norwegian crown would have been aware of this taxed dominion far to the west's existance until the 16th century when there is an assumption that Vinland must have died out along with Greenland. Norway is more concerned with European matter anyways & doesn't bother sending expeditions west to investigate Vinland's fate. Vinland continues for 100 years as a feudal society until the French arrive in 1608. The French are shocked to find Scandinavians living in the New world adhering to, although a divergent form of, Catholicism. The French would use the existance of the Vinlanders as a propaganda tool to justify their land claims in North America. They would claim the Vinlander's way of life is being protected by the French from those insidious English Protestants. Upon news of the discovery of Vinland the Pope himself would decree a bull stating that if any Christian people are discovered in the New World they are to be treated as sovereign by European powers. The Vinlanders would be de facto part of New France. The French would introduce them to all of Europe's technology of the time including firearms. However, some Vinlanders would take issue with having to send tithes to Rome now & paying taxes to the French. The English use this discontent to expand their control to the eastern part of the island spreading Protestantism & establishing the independent Church of Vinland.

Around 1714 a religious civil war between Catholic Vinlanders (supported by the French) & Protestant Vinlanders (supported by the English) kicks off. Catholic Vinlanders only make up a minority of the population & are concentrated in the western part of the Island. They have taken to French ways of dress and speak French as a second language. The protestants win the Vinlandic Civil War with some Catholic Vinlanders moving to Montreal & becoming assimulated into the French population there as a result. The British pay lip service to Vinland being an independent nation however Vinland is de facto a subject of the British Empire. The existance of Vinland wouldn't greatly affect the course of events in mainland north America or Europe between Britain & France. In many ways the Vinlanders would be seen as just another tribe of the Americas to use as a proxy against Britain or France. The French & Indian war would occur with the same result just as in our timeline. This would lead to the American revolution just as in our timeline. Canada would confederate in 1867 just as in our timeline. Vinland is hesitant to join the Canadian confederation at first weighing it with its own independence but ultimately decides confederation is the wiser of the two. Vinland joins Canada in 1870 and the Province of Vinland. Vinland today has a population of 243,000 people. The official language of Vinland are Vinlandic but most of the population can speak English as a second language. The Quebecois & the Vinlanders feel an affinity for eachother as they feel Canadian society is too Anglocentric. Below is the flag of the Canadian Province of Vinland. It incorporates symbols to represent Vinland's Nordic heritage & Canada. Let me know what you think of this timeline.



Modern Political Map of Canada

 

[chornedsnorkack]

This scenario attempts to take a sober approach to a Vinland timeline. Most other vinland timelines dream up grand continent wide Norse Empires and Norse-Indian hybrid confederations. I'll try to lay out what a reality based timeline would look like in order for Vinland, or more specifically, the Vinlandic people to survive into the modern day. The point of diversion in the timeline is a very specific event that occured in Greenland around 1000 ad. Leif Erikson returned to Greenland never to return to Vinland due to the death of his father Erik the Red's death & the plague that struck Greenland at that time required his leadership in Greenland. Sure Erik's death would have been inevitable but perhaps had this plague not hit Greenland history may have unfolded differently. Leif's younger brother Thorvald could have led Greenland after Erik's death. Leif could have continued to explore and create settlements to the west.

In the timeline Leif organizes a settlement effort with 300 men & women from Greenland as well as Iceland. They quickly find Leif's previous settlement, Leifsbudir, located on the northernmost tip of what we know as Newfoundland. Leifsbudir serves as the de facto capital for what the settlers come to define as Vinland. From the start the Norse have an antagonistic relationship with the American Indians or Skraelings. They have short military encounters with the Skraelings at the start. The Horse and Iron weapons puts the Norse at a clear advantage causing the Skraeling to migrate to the eastern & interior parts of the island.

What really puts the Norse at a clear advantage is corn. Barley and oats.

Modern scholars beleive that around 1000 ad the Beothuk numbered roughly 2,000. From 1000 to 1300 ad the native inhabitants of Vinland (Newfoundland), which we call Beothuk, go extinct due to disease, conflict & interbreeding with the Norse.

The Norse of Greenland & Iceland were converted to Catholicism around the time Vinland was founded. Leif would have seen Vinland as an Norse experiment in Christianity. Although pagan elements are surely incorporated Vinland is a foundationally Christian settlement. The Norse having iron weapons & the horse gives them a great advantage over the Skraelings, however, numbers are still not on their side.

Density is on their side.

In 1300 ad the Norse of Vinland would number about 5,000. What this means is the Norse would be a bit of homebodies when it came to venturing into mainland North America or Skraelland as they would come to identify the continent as. Its endless wilderness & seemingly innumerable Skraelings population would cause the norse to see mainland north America as the "land of the other." Sure merchants, outlaws & explorers would found settlements dotting the Gulf of St. Lawrence, however, these settlements would mostly be inhabited by men & not be considered "Vinland proper."

As in our own timeline the planet would go through the mini iceage around the 1500s making life in Greenland intolerable. In this timeline however the 3,000 or so inhabitants of Greenland seek refuge to the west. This event causes the isolation of Vinland from the rest of Europe. Most of Europe just as in our own timeline was never aware of Vinland's existence. The Norwegian crown would have been aware of this taxed dominion

How does Norwegian crown get to make Vinland a taxed dominion?

Vinland continues for 100 years as a feudal society until the French arrive in 1608. The French are shocked to find Scandinavians living in the New world adhering to, although a divergent form of, Catholicism.

Vinland would be discovered by time of Cabot. Before Reformation.

The French would use the existance of the Vinlanders as a propaganda tool to justify their land claims in North America. They would claim the Vinlander's way of life is being protected by the French from those insidious English Protestants. Upon news of the discovery of Vinland the Pope himself would decree a bull stating that if any Christian people are discovered in the New World they are to be treated as sovereign by European powers. The Vinlanders would be de facto part of New France. The French would introduce them to all of Europe's technology of the time including firearms.

How does France get control of Vinland if they're sovereign? As Christians, they're exempt by terms of Treaty of Tordesillas - anyone, Spanish, Portuguese, English, Scotch, Danish, Hanseatic can sail there, and Vinlandese themselves can sail to Europe.

They have taken to French ways of dress and speak French as a second language.

Why?

The protestants win the Vinlandic Civil War with some Catholic Vinlanders moving to Montreal & becoming assimulated into the French population there as a result. The British pay lip service to Vinland being an independent nation however Vinland is de facto a subject of the British Empire. The existance of Vinland wouldn't greatly affect the course of events in mainland north America

Tiny numbers of Christians held huge areas of America against Christian challengers.
The French in Quebec numbered just 60 000 by 1759. More importantly, Lower Louisiana was only about 3500 French and 4500 slaves at the time, and Upper Louisiana just 1100 French and their 500 slaves.

They were defeated by 1 200 000 British settlers of 13 Colonies - but the important part is that they had not been defeated before. Not in 1688-1697, not in 1701-1714, not in 1740-1748.

A few thousand Vinlandese settlers found scattered in mainland Acadia and Quebec and supported by the few tens of thousands in Newfoundland would have stopped French and English from settling in 17th century, just like the few thousand Acadians and Quebecois stopped English in 17th century.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I don't agree Greenland would die with a successful Vinland (which as you point out, is possible given the low numbers--2,000 is a high estimate--of the Beothuk and disease, conflict, etc.). Greenland would instead rely on Vinland more and more for wood, since OTL Greenlanders went there to harvest wood. By the time Greenland was abandoned OTL in the late 15th century, the Greenlanders will have recontacted with their sovereigns in (Denmark-)Norway in part thanks to Didrik Pining, Hans Pothorst, and João Vaz Corte-Real (or ATL equivalents), who explored Greenland and possibly the Grand Banks and Newfoundland.

However, a more successful Vinland means that the knowledge of the Grand Banks will spread to Europe as a whole by the 12-13th centuries. This rich fishing ground will dominate Vinland's economy for many centuries, as it did Newfoundland. IMO it's a good candidate to expand Vinland, since with the need to support the fisheries will come the need to support these fishing expeditions. The Norwegian--later Danish-Norwegian--crown will be aware of this and make sure to claim their share of it.

As the Little Ice Age continues and the fur trade accelerates, with Scandinavia being increasingly overhunted and ship designs improving, the fur trade in North America will become viable. This will be massive for Vinland. As you can't speak of Canadian history without mentioning the fur trade, you can't speak of a surviving Vinland without the fur trade. Fur and cod will be the main exports, and the main factor drawing settlers in, for a long, long time. The Kalmar Union might help Vinland out big too, since it could allow the Forest Finns to settle in Vinland. They did a great job in northern Scandinavia, and indeed formed the core of "New Sweden", so Forest Finns will be highly effective settlers and traders on the Vinlandic frontier.

At this point, neither England nor France will have much of an influence in that part of the New World. Best to move south to New England, the Mid-Atlantic, or the South, where the Vinlandic fur trade is weaker and the natives not as allied. Although centuries of Vinlandic trade during the Mississippian period will produce some very different powers, especially since Nordic wheat and rye are better crops than Indian corn and Nordic sheep, cattle, and horses could spread a good ways and be highly productive. A continuing Mississippian period produces an unrecognisable Northern America, where European colonialism will have to be more like what the Spanish did in Latin America.

I think it's likely "Vinland" becomes the name for OTL Canada, or potentially the entire New World, with Newfoundland itself being known as "Leifsland" or maybe "Bjarnesland" (after Bjarni Herjolfsson, who first sighted Vinland) or even "Vinland Proper" (see the evolution of "Finland" from the Turku area to the modern country).

Overall, it would be an unrecognisable New World, and one which is probably more "Mestizo" (describing mixed native-European people) dominated.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Greenland would instead rely on Vinland more and more for wood, since OTL Greenlanders went there to harvest wood. By the time Greenland was abandoned OTL in the late 15th century, the Greenlanders will have recontacted with their sovereigns in (Denmark-)Norway

If Greenland has Vinland to rely on, how does Norway even get to be sovereign?

However, a more successful Vinland means that the knowledge of the Grand Banks will spread to Europe as a whole by the 12-13th centuries. This rich fishing ground will dominate Vinland's economy for many centuries, as it did Newfoundland.

Did fishing and fish export dominate 12th...13th century Iceland?

 

[Arkenfolm]

If Greenland has Vinland to rely on, how does Norway even get to be sovereign?

Because it's their colony and the King of Norway sets the rules? A thriving Vinland likely means a slightly better off Greenland, and that means Norway will take more interest. And if we have OTL Pining and Pothorst involved, well, a hardscrabble bunch of farmers and fishermen probably wouldn't want to stare down a crew led by two infamous privateers.

Did fishing and fish export dominate 12th...13th century Iceland?

Not actually sure, but the Grand Banks captured a lot of attention by the mid-late 15th century.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Because it's their colony and the King of Norway sets the rules?

But it isn´t.
OTL, Olavs succeeded in subduing Norway, Shetlands and Faroes in 11th century - but NOT Iceland, nor Greenland, until 1261-1264.

A thriving Vinland likely means a slightly better off Greenland, and that means Norway will take more interest.

Yes. The problem is that now someone else is taking interest.
How did Norway OTL succeed in taking control of Iceland and Greenland in 1261-1264, after being unable to, for three centuries?
The leverages that King of Norway did have in Greenland and Iceland included the need of Greenland and Iceland for trade, and lack of good alternatives.
Iceland had forests, but the problem was that these were from the start scrubby birch, not straight building timbers, and the Norse went through most in first century of settlement. Iceland grew some barley and oats, but it was not reliable in their climate; some barley crops had certainly been harvested in Greenland, but ditto. Icelanders and Greenlanders could import ships and sail them where they wanted - but the problem was that few made the investment, and Iceland relied on outside ships for trade. Before 1264, anyone who wanted could sail for Iceland or Greenland, whether Danes, Germans or Scots - but no one besides the Norwegians bothered to invest in the navigational knowledge. By OTL 1261, Greenland and Iceland were dependent on trade monopoly of Norwegian king which they could not break and no one else outside would break it.

Add Vinland to scales. Vinlanders have the reliable barley and oats crops - which means that Greenland´s dependence on Norway is less immediate. They still need to trade with Europe - but so do Vinlanders. And the Vinlanders have the timber to build their own ships. If Norwegians find Vinland a step too far to invest in the navigational knowledge, the Vinlanders need to know the whole way - and will. If King of Norway tries to bid up prices, in economic or political terms, once the Vinlanders are across Atlantic on their own ships, they´re free to trade anywhere else - Denmark, Scotland, England, Ireland.

And if the Vinlanders carry out trade with Europe on their own ships, directing it to Britain rather than Norway, they would also carry trade between British Isles and Iceland and Greenland. Diminishing the leverage King of Norway has over Iceland and Greenland.

King of Norway may have interest in Iceland. But he also has other interests - Halogaland, Bohuslän... Whereas for Vinland, Greenland and Iceland are important. Vinland of 1261 would be less populous and powerful than Norway - but Vinland plus Iceland plus Greenland would be enough to prevent the OTL Norwegian subjugation of Greenland and Iceland in 1261-1264.

 

[Caligo]

The first few comments were just snarky nit picking so I'm not going to respond to them. European fishers may have contact with Vinland before Cabot but that doesn't mean Vinland was known to the greater European consciousness. I fail to see how first contact being a few years before the reformation is at all relevant. A few thousand french in Louisiana is not what kept the British from invading. It was the consequences & the force that backed up those few thousand french settlers, mainly the entire French Empire & the risk of a global conflict... Vinland could not hold large territory for one because they lacked the infrastructure & institutions to maintain an Empire. Even if Britain & Frence viewed Vinland as a rival European power why would they consider Vinlandic claims on the North American continent as legitimate? They didn't even respect eachothers' land claims muchless those of a feudal Jarldom of a few thousand people.

 

[AnonymousSauce]

Overall, it would be an unrecognisable New World, and one which is probably more "Mestizo" (describing mixed native-European people) dominated.

Oh yeah, European crops, animals and diseases spreading into NA earlier would have been a game changer. Imagine the Iroquois Confederacy getting a 5 century head start doing what they did in the XVIIIth, with no Europeans in the way and wheat, oats, barley and animals too go along with the Three Sisters? The entered entire interior of NA between the Appalachians and the Great Plains is like one giant North China Plain.

 

[Byzantion]

I don't agree Greenland would die with a successful Vinland (which as you point out, is possible given the low numbers--2,000 is a high estimate--of the Beothuk and disease, conflict, etc.). Greenland would instead rely on Vinland more and more for wood, since OTL Greenlanders went there to harvest wood. By the time Greenland was abandoned OTL in the late 15th century, the Greenlanders will have recontacted with their sovereigns in (Denmark-)Norway in part thanks to Didrik Pining, Hans Pothorst, and João Vaz Corte-Real (or ATL equivalents), who explored Greenland and possibly the Grand Banks and Newfoundland.

However, a more successful Vinland means that the knowledge of the Grand Banks will spread to Europe as a whole by the 12-13th centuries. This rich fishing ground will dominate Vinland's economy for many centuries, as it did Newfoundland. IMO it's a good candidate to expand Vinland, since with the need to support the fisheries will come the need to support these fishing expeditions. The Norwegian--later Danish-Norwegian--crown will be aware of this and make sure to claim their share of it.

As the Little Ice Age continues and the fur trade accelerates, with Scandinavia being increasingly overhunted and ship designs improving, the fur trade in North America will become viable. This will be massive for Vinland. As you can't speak of Canadian history without mentioning the fur trade, you can't speak of a surviving Vinland without the fur trade. Fur and cod will be the main exports, and the main factor drawing settlers in, for a long, long time. The Kalmar Union might help Vinland out big too, since it could allow the Forest Finns to settle in Vinland. They did a great job in northern Scandinavia, and indeed formed the core of "New Sweden", so Forest Finns will be highly effective settlers and traders on the Vinlandic frontier.

At this point, neither England nor France will have much of an influence in that part of the New World. Best to move south to New England, the Mid-Atlantic, or the South, where the Vinlandic fur trade is weaker and the natives not as allied. Although centuries of Vinlandic trade during the Mississippian period will produce some very different powers, especially since Nordic wheat and rye are better crops than Indian corn and Nordic sheep, cattle, and horses could spread a good ways and be highly productive. A continuing Mississippian period produces an unrecognisable Northern America, where European colonialism will have to be more like what the Spanish did in Latin America.

I think it's likely "Vinland" becomes the name for OTL Canada, or potentially the entire New World, with Newfoundland itself being known as "Leifsland" or maybe "Bjarnesland" (after Bjarni Herjolfsson, who first sighted Vinland) or even "Vinland Proper" (see the evolution of "Finland" from the Turku area to the modern country).

Overall, it would be an unrecognisable New World, and one which is probably more "Mestizo" (describing mixed native-European people) dominated.

Don' t know for the Population Numbers but maybe there could be settlements along the Hudson Bay. The Norse could be pelt traders. Greenland settled would migrated aswell If the passage ist maintained. Otherwise the Vinlanders live in isolation. OTL expedition led to hostilities as we know from sagas. But maybe trade and assimilation of the Norse could happen eventually.

 

[viperjock]

I could see the Norse surviving in Vinland by establishing a fortified settlement south of Newfoundland. This settlement could be in what is now Nova Scotia or Prince Edward Island. Basically the Norse use this southern outpost to grow crops and raise livestock. This way the Norse could provide provisions to outposts on Newfoundland allowing them to be occupied on a regular basis.
I believe that with the coming of the little ice age contact will still be lost with Iceland and Europe. The Greenlanders could head to Vinland reinforcing the settlement there. At best Vinland is out of contact for a few decades. Once John Cabot or Basque fisherman arrive I imagine a scenario wher Vinland requests that they need a new priest or more priests.
The Vinlanders could act as guides for explorers looking for the Northwest Passage. In fact the Vinlanders might try to explain to these early explorers that they know of no such passage and have never heard of Asia. They might also explain that to the west there are only more natives, some not so friendly.
I can see Catholic Vinlanders helping to settle Quebec. Instead of bunch of Frenchmen under the command of Champlain you have some Norse families moving there. The Norse might be able to help keep the Iroquois at bay or least help maintain peaceful relations.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I could see the Norse surviving in Vinland by establishing a fortified settlement south of Newfoundland. This settlement could be in what is now Nova Scotia or Prince Edward Island. Basically the Norse use this southern outpost to grow crops and raise livestock. This way the Norse could provide provisions to outposts on Newfoundland allowing them to be occupied on a regular basis.
I believe that with the coming of the little ice age contact will still be lost with Iceland and Europe. The Greenlanders could head to Vinland reinforcing the settlement there. At best Vinland is out of contact for a few decades. Once John Cabot or Basque fisherman arrive I imagine a scenario wher Vinland requests that they need a new priest or more priests.
The Vinlanders could act as guides for explorers looking for the Northwest Passage. In fact the Vinlanders might try to explain to these early explorers that they know of no such passage and have never heard of Asia. They might also explain that to the west there are only more natives, some not so friendly.
I can see Catholic Vinlanders helping to settle Quebec. Instead of bunch of Frenchmen under the command of Champlain you have some Norse families moving there. The Norse might be able to help keep the Iroquois at bay or least help maintain peaceful relations.

Newfoundland was plenty fertile, even to this day they still have an agricultural industry.

And I don't see how they'd fall out of contact. There's no way their population wouldn't surpass Greenland's before long. Unlike Greenland, they have the timber to make boats and plenty of bog iron. They'll still need clergy from Europe, and Greenland was getting bishops into the late 14th century.

Nova Scotia and PEI would be harder for the Norse, since the locals there are much more numerous than the Beothuk and have more agriculture and richer hunting grounds. Anticosti Island might be better as a first expansion. It was sparsely populated by American Indians as well, but with some slash and burn agriculture could have some marginal farms and ranching land, in addition to being a timber source.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Nova Scotia and PEI would be harder for the Norse, since the locals there are much more numerous than the Beothuk and have more agriculture and richer hunting grounds.

IIRC, no agriculture there. Only in Massachusetts.

Anticosti Island might be better as a first expansion. It was sparsely populated by American Indians as well, but with some slash and burn agriculture could have some marginal farms and ranching land, in addition to being a timber source.

I´d suggest Cape Breton Island.
Simple geographical reasons. Last time to choose to continue either South along Atlantic coast or West into Saint Lawrence.
Also Bras d´Or is a nice sheltered waterway to ply with small boats.

 

[Alexmcool1]

I feel like the population is being a bit too low balled for a successful Vinland. The abundance of land and food, especially due to the grand banks, will decrease infant death rates which was kept the Iceland population low. The average icelander family had 7 kids on average, but many died during infancy, mostly due to malnutrition.

Also marriages would occur earlier because of the abundant land. The average Vinnish farmer would be wealthier than their European counter part, because how cheap land is. A farmer could set up multiple farmsteads for his sons with the oldest getting the father's farm while the younger ones getting the new ones. This would clear up inheritances, the younger sons having guaranteed futures, which would lead to earlier marriages.

The main thing holding back the population, is woman. I doubt few woman would immigrate to the colony unless they were going with their families, the majority of the immigrants will be single men. If they can reach a stable population, I think their population could surpass medieval Norway by the mid 13th century if not near the end.

 

[Tomislav Addai]

I doubt that Vinland would be mostly inward looking throughout the Middle ages. Once you have a significant population, you must remember that once the Vikings arrived in ships, they can continue using them. Most probably, the Vinlanders would establish trade posts with the natives, similar to the Rurikids in Russia. The major trade posts would be at the St. Lawrence river estuary, in Acadia (Nova Scotia and Brunswick) and even further south to Maine and Boston. While you wouldn't have a strong Viking immigration to the area, you still could have a group of adventurers unitng some native clans a la Russia.
They would bring tecnology with them.

Vinlanders would populate certainly Prince Edward Island, possibly also Nova Scotia (a wall could be built to defend it from tge natives).
The Mikmaq of New Brunswick would most likely culturally interact with Vinlanders. Maybe they would be ruled by adventurers from Vinland, or some fleeing Viking pagans (who really would find a safenhaven in North America. Anywhere)

My bet is, other things being equal, that Vinland butterfly means that you have Mikmaq, Abenaki and potentially all of New England and Iroquis as well, part of the European cultural sphere

 

[chornedsnorkack]

I doubt that Vinland would be mostly inward looking throughout the Middle ages. Once you have a significant population, you must remember that once the Vikings arrived in ships, they can continue using them. Most probably, the Vinlanders would establish trade posts with the natives, similar to the Rurikids in Russia. The major trade posts would be at the St. Lawrence river estuary, in Acadia (Nova Scotia and Brunswick) and even further south to Maine and Boston. While you wouldn't have a strong Viking immigration to the area, you still could have a group of adventurers unitng some native clans a la Russia.
They would bring tecnology with them.

Vinlanders would populate certainly Prince Edward Island, possibly also Nova Scotia (a wall could be built to defend it from tge natives).

Walls won´t help. A small band of Norse cannot guard a wall when they have to mind their smithies, their fields and their pastures. And a determined band of raiders simply takes to canoes and lands on undermanned shores. Yes, Norse are superior shipbuilders... for high seas. Does not help interdicting crossing of sheltered waters.

Natural borders are useful, still. Don´t stop determined foes - but do stop sheep straying in the hunting grounds and maize fields of friendly or "friendly" neighbours. And if borders are obvious, the "friendly" neighbours cannot claim to have got lost chasing deer.
I still suggest Cape Breton rather than Prince Edward Island. For obvious strategic reasons - from Cape Breton, both Saint Lawrence and Atlantic Coast routes are open.
And if the whole Cape Breton is too big at first, then Boularderie Island is a very sensible choice of convenient size. Further on - Montreal Island and Aquidneck Island.
You could have a small band of mostly bachelor traders and squaw-men settling in southern trading posts. Like the French coureurs des bois from Quebec, who fathered the Red River Metis.

The Mikmaq of New Brunswick would most likely culturally interact with Vinlanders. Maybe they would be ruled by adventurers from Vinland, or some fleeing Viking pagans (who really would find a safenhaven in North America. Anywhere)

My bet is, other things being equal, that Vinland butterfly means that you have Mikmaq, Abenaki and potentially all of New England and Iroquis as well, part of the European cultural sphere

Mikmaq as hunter-gatherers are not so easy to rule. Saint Lawrence Iroquois and Narragansett Bay Algonquin as already numerous maize growers are more likely to build up states led by small groups of immigrants who introduce iron, animals et cetera.

 

[viperjock]

Walls won´t help. A small band of Norse cannot guard a wall when they have to mind their smithies, their fields and their pastures. And a determined band of raiders simply takes to canoes and lands on undermanned shores. Yes, Norse are superior shipbuilders... for high seas. Does not help interdicting crossing of sheltered waters.

The Pilgrims constructed a wall at Plymouth Colony for defense and they were undermanned also. A Norse settlement will be fortified from the beginning with at least a wooden palisade. If the Norse are located on a narrow peninsula then they could build a wall to keep out wandering raiders. The men would have to divide their time between working in the fields and standing a post. You are right that a raiding party in canoes could simply outflank the wall. The Norse would be aware of this from their history. After all that was what Vikings did, raid isolated locations from the sea. the best thing the Norse can do is keep the settlement with a stockade and use a wall as a outer defense.
I think the Norse after a period of fighting the Indians would develop smaller boats or simply copy canoes to use with a quick reaction force.

I still suggest Cape Breton rather than Prince Edward Island. For obvious strategic reasons - from Cape Breton, both Saint Lawrence and Atlantic Coast routes are open.
And if the whole Cape Breton is too big at first, then Boularderie Island is a very sensible choice of convenient size. Further on - Montreal Island and Aquidneck Island.
You could have a small band of mostly bachelor traders and squaw-men settling in southern trading posts. Like the French coureurs des bois from Quebec, who fathered the Red River Metis.

It would be interesting to have the Norse fortify the site of Louisbourg first. If you have ongoing conflict with the Indians then the Norse are going to make of priority of looking for defendable locations. Louisbourg could act as castle for local defense and as base for trading expeditions. I agree with you about the bachelors. Just like the French of OTL some will become traveling fur traders. Not every young man is going to want to stay on the farm. Not all men will be able to find Norse wives or be afforded the opportunity. It will be a matter of time before you have Norse Metis. I think that rather than having the Norse absorbed by the Natives you might have some small Indian bands absorbed by Vinland.

 

[Tomislav Addai]

Remember that what happens in history is that you simply don't have hunter gatherers living next to organized statehood for an extended period of time, should the terrain not be as hostile.
Even the Khoisan adopted pastoralism from the Bantus. I mean even if Mikmaq arenat first hunter gatherers, they won't stay as such forever; the contact they have witg the Vinlanfers would result in a sort of organization -into agricultural tribal chiefdoms at first...

 

[chornedsnorkack]

the best thing the Norse can do is keep the settlement with a stockade and use a wall as a outer defense.

The best thing the Norse can do is establish friendly relationships with immediately neighbouring Indian band, who WANT the Norse around as a source of tools, food etc., instead of a modest sized patch of mediocre quality hunting grounds.
It helps a lot, though, if there is a clear natural border, to demarcate what precisely the Norse have bought/rented and keep down future disputes.

It would be interesting to have the Norse fortify the site of Louisbourg first. If you have ongoing conflict with the Indians then the Norse are going to make of priority of looking for defendable locations.

French did not fortify Louisbourg first - they fortified Englishtown first. They only moved to Louisbourg after 1713, because Englishtown froze more often in winter.
Not an issue for Norse. No one is going to resupply them in winter anyway - they are staying home. What they need is farmland and pastures... and Boularderie Island would be a very nice naturally demarcated area for settlement. As they make deals with their neighbours, they can expand to outlying farms around Bras d'Or.

Not all men will be able to find Norse wives or be afforded the opportunity. It will be a matter of time before you have Norse Metis. I think that rather than having the Norse absorbed by the Natives you might have some small Indian bands absorbed by Vinland.

Not just bands. Quite some Indian girls, too.
After all, quite some Indian fathers, brothers, guardians and captors will be willing to offer women to the Norse bachelors, in return for iron knives, axes etc.. Some of them will keep the kinship ties to their daughters, sons-in-law and grandchildren living and raised in Norse society, others take the price for their captive/slave.

Remember that what happens in history is that you simply don't have hunter gatherers living next to organized statehood for an extended period of time, should the terrain not be as hostile.
Even the Khoisan adopted pastoralism from the Bantus. I mean even if Mikmaq arenat first hunter gatherers, they won't stay as such forever; the contact they have witg the Vinlanfers would result in a sort of organization -into agricultural tribal chiefdoms at first...

But some of the terrain is hostile enough. Saami hunter-gatherers lived next to Norse farmers scattered on favourable coastal patches for over a millennium.
Beothuk and Mikmaq might survive on the less welcoming lands, while establishing close trade and social ties to the neighbouring Norse.

 

[viperjock]

I wonder if Vinland would butterfly away French Acadia? If the Norse do occupy what is now Nova Scotia and there is still a decent sized population there in the 1600s would France still send settlers?
In my scenario the French simply annex Vinland settlements in what would be Acadia/Nova Scotia. OTL the French never sent large numbers of immigrants to New France. In this timeline they send less or the OTL Acadians settle the Quebec/Montreal area. Maybe this time there is no expulsion of Catholics from Acadia. In fact maybe in this alternate timeline the English never get a beachhead in Acadia and France holds it until the last French and Indian War.

 

[Umbral]

Modern scholars beleive that around 1000 ad the Beothuk numbered roughly 2,000. From 1000 to 1300 ad the native inhabitants of Vinland (Newfoundland), which we call Beothuk, go extinct due to disease, conflict & interbreeding with the Norse.

I think you are highballing their numbers. The difference in population between agriculturalists and hunter-gatherers are massive. 2000 is generally believed to be the number at the time of OTL European contact. That is, about 1500 AD. Around the time of Erik the Red and Leif Eriksson, 1000 AD, the estimated numbers are 500 to 800 in bands of about 35 -55 people. Each roaming a large area. Newfoundland is about 1/5th larger than Ireland.
As far as I know there were no social mechanisms to gather together under a single leader for war or handle emergencies, so the most the Norse would have to deal with at one time would be 2- 4 bands joined together. And maybe 1/3rd to 1/4 of which would be men of fighting age.

Before diseases.

The Norse having iron weapons & the horse gives them a great advantage over the Skraelings, however, numbers are still not on their side. In 1300 ad the Norse of Vinland would number about 5,000.

I think you are lowballing the numbers here a lot. A human population can grow up to 3 % per year as we see in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Norse on Vinland would have been in an environment far below the carrying capacity of their economy. All the good land free, animals unused to Norse hunting methods etc. No real epidemics or food scarcity compared to Europe, little in the way of armed conflict.

A seed population of 300 in the year 1000 would have grown to 2.1 million with a 3 % growth rate. If we compensate for lack of germ theory, infant mortality etc and assume 1,8 % we get 63 000. At a low growth rate of 1,2 % we're still at 11 000.

Personally I think we'd have a high growth rate for the first few generations, and then slowing as the best lands were taken, animals hunted down etc.

This assumes no immigration.