Varus the Victor, Empire to Today?

[DominusNovus]

Ok, lets say that Varus doesn't get his ass handed to him by Armenius. Lets say that Germania Magna is pacified as well as any other western province and the Rhine frontier is replaced by the Elbe frontier. Assume that no major expansion into Germania occurs any time within the next century or three. Other bordering territories (Britannia, Dacia, Armenia, etc.) might or might not be conquered.

Now, out of 100 parellel worlds where this happens, what percentage have some form of the Roman Empire surviving to the present? A byzantine type Empire would qualify, but the Holy Roman Empire wouldn't, nor would any foreign power conquering the Empire and claiming to be Roman (such as the Ottomans).

 

[Faeelin]

I put 6 to 10, but I think I'm moving towards 1 to 5.

You want a continuous system of Emperors. That's pretty unlikely, but as byzantium showed, not impossible.

 

[DuQuense]

Even without the increased size increase of Germany, the Roman Empire was by the time of Varus, already suffering from splitering forces. The addition of Germany would just speed the discergratetion.

 

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

Perhaps the battle or the events leading to a similar battle may have been different if Augustus was aware enough of Varus' military deficencies to decide to give command of the German Legions to a more competent general.

 

[V-J]

Surviving to the present day, I'd put it pretty low. Surviving for a fairly extended period of time, I'd put it significantly higher.

 

[stevep]

If Rome achieved the Elbe frontier that early then I suspect that the Carpathian extension would follow in fairly short order. This would give a much shorter border, easier to defend, even if the land immediately behind it is fairly poor at first.

As such, while I'm doubtful the empire would survive to the present day, it could last significantly longer. It would also have a more European tint, although predominantly Mediterranean in nature.

The one way you might see it likely to last is culturally. If you have it more secure and stable, possibly butterflying the dominance of Christianity as a result, you may get a Roman version of China. I.e. although formal control may change hands and the empire see periods of chaos and collapse the idea/identity of Rome as the dominant state endures and successive new powers seek to sanctify their position by claiming the authority of the Roman empire. [To a degree this occurred OTL but thinking of something stronger].

Steve

 

[Roberto]

I'd wager that the Empire would succumb to Barbarian invasions with regions of the Empire falling away oe by one, rather than one big invasion as in OTL. Maybe Rome itself survives as a direct successor state...

 

[Riain]

I think that structural factors change so much over periods of centuries that it is amazingly unlikely that the Western Roman Empire would survive until the present. It perhaps coud have done a Byzantium, but even at it's best interpretation that died in 1923.

Incedently, is it fair to say that the Roman/Byzantine empire died in 1453 because the Ottomans took it over but that the Chinese didn't in 1644 when the Manchus took it over?

 

[Faeelin]

I think that structural factors change so much over periods of centuries that it is amazingly unlikely that the Western Roman Empire would survive until the present. It perhaps coud have done a Byzantium, but even at it's best interpretation that died in 1923.

So, 75 years before today?

Not a bad run.

Incedently, is it fair to say that the Roman/Byzantine empire died in 1453 because the Ottomans took it over but that the Chinese didn't in 1644 when the Manchus took it over?

Since the Chinese continued to practice Chinese imperial traditions, and were recognized as the Emperors of China by their subjects?

(Eventually).

Yea.

 

[Riain]

Didn't the Turks do a similar thing when they established the Sultanate of Rum, only with their different religion and asocciated practices? Didn't they inheret and use much of the Imperial beauracracy, tax structures and so on? By converting to Islam didn't the former Imperial subjects accept this change? I'm not being faceteous, I have an idea that this happened to a reasonable extent.

Is it possible to have the centre of gravity in the west move away from Rome, but still be recognisably the Roman empire? I think I've read that in the late Roman era the centre of importance moved from Rome to Ravenna. Could this move again to somewhere like Marseilles or some other central place so the Roman Empire could be at the centre of a land and sea territory encompassing the western Med, Italy and southern France? I think that in the earliest days Rome's central location enabled it's rise, and Constantinople's location enabled it's survival, both naturally drew wealth and therefore power to them, and by extension a new de-facto roman capital could have similar advantages.

 

[ray243]

So, 75 years before today?

Not a bad run.



Since the Chinese continued to practice Chinese imperial traditions, and were recognized as the Emperors of China by their subjects?

(Eventually).

Yea.

Another thing is, china has been technically 'liberated' by the KMT and etc.


Funny thing is, when they liberated china...the size of china is bigger than the ming dynasty....



Too bad the greeks decide to liberate greece as greece, instead of the roman empire.

 

[Faeelin]

Didn't the Turks do a similar thing when they established the Sultanate of Rum, only with their different religion and asocciated practices? Didn't they inheret and use much of the Imperial beauracracy, tax structures and so on? By converting to Islam didn't the former Imperial subjects accept this change? I'm not being faceteous, I have an idea that this happened to a reasonable extent.

Mmm. There's a diffference between using adminstrative practices and being a continuous state.

First, plenty of Greeks didn't convert to Islam; and this is far more of a change than going from being ruled by the Dynasty of Brightness to the Dynasty of Clarity. Even so, the Qing faced plenty of resistance.

A more accurate comparison might be the Glorious Revolution. The new king is a Dutch homosexual, yet nobody thought England ceased to be.

 

[Neoteros]

The Empire survives longer , but later , is roughly ass - kicked by the Vikings .
( coming soon : Scandinavia Wank )