Would the US have Nuclear bombs yet, development would be slower without the input from Tube Alloys.
I cant see the US building up massive naval forces, moving aircraft technology on quickly AND making a nuclear bomb, it's a great nation with vast resources, but if it's not actually at war then all the funds will probably not be available in vast quantities, this is the joy of being a democracy.
I mean whatever happens the USN will stomp all over the Kreigsmarine once the war starts, but without the friction of war development of Radar, Jets and the latest piston aircraft will lag behind OTL, so F4U, Hellcats and Avengers will probably be the premier naval aircraft in the world still.
As for the Germans, who knows where they get the resources from to do anything, as for this scenario to happen Russia must either still be an ally or fully subjugated, which means resources will be available but manpower must be short to man any large navy.
The Nazi system doesn't lend it's self to rational thinking so it's still probably trying to make a decent set of replacement engines for the BMW 801 and DB 601/605 and failing, restricting improvements in prop aircraft, in the same way the resources will not be available for Jets, guided weapons, super subs and a massive surface fleet either.
So FW190s vs Corsairs, JU88s vs Avengers and the USN wiping anything German from the seas in short order.