United States taking the initiative in the Pacific War

Supreme

Shortly after Operation Barbarossa, Roosevelt decides it's time to go to war.

He meticulously prepares his troops, and 3 months before Pearl Harbor, he declares war on the Axis and attacks Japan's positions in the Pacific.

Let's focus on the Pacific War. How does this change the course of the war?
 

YYJ

Here is War Plan Rainbow 5, which was the operative US plan for this scenario. This was the plan that they gamed this potential war on.

HyperWar: RAINBOW 5

The text of basic war plan RAINBOW 5, extracted from the Hart Inquiry (Hearings before the Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack, 79th Congress)
www.ibiblio.org
 

lionhead

They'd be going on the initiative against the world's biggest, most advanced, well trained and deadly fleet in the world at that time. Heavily underprepared.

Where would they strike? If they'd have the element of surprise i doubt they launch attacks from the Phillipinnes, too easy t ospot for the Japanese i'd say. Would they invade? Indonesia? Iwo Jima?

Not smart to take the initiaive when the enemy outnumbers your fleet 2:1.
 

TRH

I understand you want to skip ahead to the question of what happens next, but it bears mentioning that Congress wouldn’t support a declaration of war without a more direct provocation than had been seen by April 1941.

And as lionhead says, the US Navy wouldn’t be ready to go on the offensive yet, with the force disparity at the time.
 

RamscoopRaider

Donor
lionhead said:
They'd be going on the initiative against the world's biggest, most advanced, well trained and deadly fleet in the world at that time. Heavily underprepared.

Where would they strike? If they'd have the element of surprise i doubt they launch attacks from the Phillipinnes, too easy t ospot for the Japanese i'd say. Would they invade? Indonesia? Iwo Jima?

Not smart to take the initiaive when the enemy outnumbers your fleet 2:1.
Click to expand...
Uh the IJN was 3rd right before Pearl Harbor, smaller than the USN or RN. They had parity with the USN in carriers (USN has 7 Fleet, IJN 6 but some CVLs compared to US CVEs) and Cruisers (exact parity in CA, US has fewer CL but bigger and more powerful on average), but were outnumbered in destroyers and battleships, not sure about submarines. They were also behind the USN technologically in a lot of ways

The real problem is that the USN really lacks the fleet train to do anything, RAINBOW basically called for the US to stay on the defensive until that was fixed. So the most logical would be bomber attacks from the Philippines on Taiwan, and a big carrier raid on Truk ,followed by battleships after the defenses are nuetralized to level it to bedrock. Of course this really can't hurt the IJN but would cripple their power projection

Of course this ignores the fact that as said above Congress won't declare war

Edit: Since this is 3 months before Pearl that means the USN is better off big carrier wise, being 6 to 4 rather than 7 to 6, and Battleships are 17 to 10, not 17 to 11
 
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CaptainCalvert

The US army wasn't impressive in 1940, but a more aggressive stance suggests a POD in the early or mid 1930s which would give them time to increase numbers. Maybe the government decides that massive military spending can help get the country out of recession, and a few years later the threat of war looks like a good way to distract people from the impending debt crisis [1].

Even with a larger navy and much expanded army (and marines) the challenge is that until Japan starts expanding its empire, it's really hard to see where the US could attack Japan, except through China.

[1] US lenders lending money to the US government instead of to Germany would extend their post-war recovery but has the upside that it probably avoids or limits the OTL hyperinflation and other economic problems that helped the Nazi path to power.
 

CV12Hornet

The Japanese would happily take the USN walking feet-first into their Kantai Kessen plan. As bananapants as I think that plan is, even if the Americans won it would be a costly victory and likely see most of the fleet laid up for repairs, whether they reach their destination or are forced to limp home.
 

jlckansas

Roosevelt can't decide to go to war, Congress can and they are not ready to go to war then. Roosevelt wants to start something I do believe even democrats would support his impeachment.
 

Lalli

Like stated, Roosevelt can't just decide go to war without support of Congress what he hardly gets without very good reason like Pearl Harbor like provocation. No one want do such political suicide going war without provocation.

And USA wasn't really ready to war anyway.
 

DDM

Spetember 7th 1941 he goes for the knockout punch. All submarines, battleships, carriers and oilers to the Pacific. Marines land in Tinian with 8 inch artillery from the army to bombard Saipan to draw out Japanese fleet. Submarines arrayed in patrol lines for likely access of Japanese fleet advance. Carriers engage each other before battlelines clash. Japan will only have 4 fleet carriers maybe 5 if Shokaku is risked in battle only having been commissioned a month earlier. US brings 5 fleet carriers and the Ranger. Also brings full battleline with exception of North Carolina and Washington leaving them to deal with the Tirpitz if she sailed. Chaos reigns as battle is joined. You determine the victor.
 

lionhead

RamscoopRaider said:
Uh the IJN was 3rd right before Pearl Harbor, smaller than the USN or RN. They had parity with the USN in carriers (USN has 7 Fleet, IJN 6 but some CVLs compared to US CVEs) and Cruisers (exact parity in CA, US has fewer CL but bigger and more powerful on average), but were outnumbered in destroyers and battleships, not sure about submarines. They were also behind the USN technologically in a lot of ways

The real problem is that the USN really lacks the fleet train to do anything, RAINBOW basically called for the US to stay on the defensive until that was fixed. So the most logical would be bomber attacks from the Philippines on Taiwan, and a big carrier raid on Truk ,followed by battleships after the defenses are nuetralized to level it to bedrock. Of course this really can't hurt the IJN but would cripple their power projection

Of course this ignores the fact that as said above Congress won't declare war

Edit: Since this is 3 months before Pearl that means the USN is better off big carrier wise, being 6 to 4 rather than 7 to 6, and Battleships are 17 to 10, not 17 to 11
Click to expand...

i meant in the pacific, not overall. I doubt even in this scenario they'd redirect the atlantic fleet to the pacific.
 

Garrison

Donor
Supreme said:
Some of you point out that the United States was not prepared but is there any chance of an offensive if they coordinate with the British?
Click to expand...
The last thing the British want is to open another front, for that matter if Roosevelt was in a position to declare war its going to be on Germany not Japan.
 

jlckansas

Grey Wolf said:
If you look at the history of the 2nd half of 1941, FDR basically DOES
1) give the Japanese an ultimatum
2) co-ordinate with the British
Click to expand...
1. What ultimatum, you do this or we declare war? Not anything I have seen the US sending to Japan.
2. Co-ordinate with the British in the Atlantic but not the Pacific or Southeast Asia. Nor the Dutch, Free French, Australia, New Zealand, or even the Republic of China.
 

scifilovr

jlckansas said:
1. What ultimatum, you do this or we declare war? Not anything I have seen the US sending to Japan.
2. Co-ordinate with the British in the Atlantic but not the Pacific or Southeast Asia. Nor the Dutch, Free French, Australia, New Zealand, or even the Republic of China.
Click to expand...
The ultimatum was "get out of China, or we won't send you anymore oil/unfreeze all of your bank accounts"
 
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