Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Let say Turkey gets the oil rich Mosul Vilayet in 1926. How does this work out for Turkey?
Turkey with Mosul Vilayet
- Thread starter Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
- Start date
FillyofDelphi
Banned
When has such things as minorities ever worried the Turks?
Then again, the British would see every reason to claim protection for the Kurds from Turkey in order to hold on to oil access.
Any scenario in which Turkey has the Mosul Vilayet is a scenario in which Britain allowed them to have it, which means London has either decided the oil there really isen't worth a hostile Turkey, or have reached an understanding with Ankara in which they get preferred strategic access to petroleum supplies in exchange for recognition of great Turkish claims. The Kurds would have to be thrown under the bus.
Well, it's far from the first time they've left entire ethnic groups to be road kill.
Losing of Mosul changed Turkey's attidute towards Kurds and Turkey adopted Turkish nationalism instead of muslim nationalism.
https://m.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/han...eleri-degistirdi-benzer-etkiler-nasil-onlenir
So no PKK or any Kurdish seperatist terrorism.
Better withdrawl from Syria and Iraq during WWI and no Seikh Said revolt would be good pods.
IOTL Kirkuk fields could extract 3 milion barrels per day oil. Turkey's current oil consumption is 700k barrels per day. That means ITTL Turkey can easly export 2 milion oil per day. Keep in mind that IOTL Iraq wasted potential of Kirkuk so ITTL Turkey could have extracted more oil.
Best case Turkey uses oil revenues for industrialism, infrastructure and education then eventually becomes a developed country by at least 90s. Even absence of terrorism big boon for economy of Turkey (Cost of terror is more than 300 billion dollars for Turkey).
Worst case Turkey falls into the hands of populist politicans like Chavez or military dictators and end up as Venezuela like country.
https://m.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/han...eleri-degistirdi-benzer-etkiler-nasil-onlenir
So no PKK or any Kurdish seperatist terrorism.
Better withdrawl from Syria and Iraq during WWI and no Seikh Said revolt would be good pods.
IOTL Kirkuk fields could extract 3 milion barrels per day oil. Turkey's current oil consumption is 700k barrels per day. That means ITTL Turkey can easly export 2 milion oil per day. Keep in mind that IOTL Iraq wasted potential of Kirkuk so ITTL Turkey could have extracted more oil.
Best case Turkey uses oil revenues for industrialism, infrastructure and education then eventually becomes a developed country by at least 90s. Even absence of terrorism big boon for economy of Turkey (Cost of terror is more than 300 billion dollars for Turkey).
Worst case Turkey falls into the hands of populist politicans like Chavez or military dictators and end up as Venezuela like country.
Turkey is better off without the Kirkuk. While in theory the oil revenues could be used in a sovereign wealth fund or reinvested in infrastructure and education, the military and/or government will be tempted to redistribute oil money in exchange for political support. Turkey would likely have problems with military interference in politics that resemble Nigeria's history, and a larger Kurdish population to deal with.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
When has such things as minorities ever worried the Turks?
Then again, the British would see every reason to claim protection for the Kurds from Turkey in order to hold on to oil access.
Antonio Banderas was going to be in a biopic of Ataturk over twenty years ago, but then he ditched the project seeing the political controversy it awakened.
Not that it wouldn't have the same controversy today, or even more, but I think in terms of looks, put a spray tan on Joel Edgerton and you've got your Mustafa!
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Except said Kurdish population, once it reaches a certain size, would nessecitate the Turkish government being structured (since they're going to be part of the state from the beginning) in such a way as to accommodate their interests. So Ataturk would need to, for example, ease off a bit on the radical secularization of society, forcing sedentary lifestyles, accomindiate the use of Kurdish dialects, ect. Nigeria can get away with using oppression on the Ojoni and their ilk to exploit its oil resources because all the individual ethnic groups are too tiny a porition of the total Nigerian population to effectively create a threatening resistance; the same can not be said of the Kurds in this scenario.
Even though it would make more sense to accommodate the Kurds, that doesn't mean the Kemalist elite would. Croatians were a sizable minority in interwar Yugoslavia, but that didn't keep the Serbs from deciding to run it as a greater Serbian empire. Under this logic, Saddam would've been more accommodating towards the Shia to stay in power longer.
Deleted member 109224
Turkey being less Turkish-nationalist would be an interesting impact of thus. Kurds are 20%, but probably would be more like 30% TTL. Ironically this might mean less Kurdish nationalism, as without Turkey's attempt at assimilating the "mountain turks" they'll be more okay with being part of Turkey (just look at how more conservative Kurds are part of the AKP coalition).
There's also the question of how much territory Turkey gets to keep with the Mosul Vilayet. If it's the whole Vilayet, (or at least all the parts of Vilayet that are in Iraq) then that's a pretty funky border with Syria. However, maybe Turkey gets more territory down the line when France is open to ceding territory to Turkey for political support, like they did with Alexandretta.
Odds are the Assyrians will be deported, sadly. France will likely take them in and settle them in Syria or Lebanon somewhere. There'd be big knock-on effects from that. Maybe a Christian-majority Lebanon would result?
There's also the question of how much territory Turkey gets to keep with the Mosul Vilayet. If it's the whole Vilayet, (or at least all the parts of Vilayet that are in Iraq) then that's a pretty funky border with Syria. However, maybe Turkey gets more territory down the line when France is open to ceding territory to Turkey for political support, like they did with Alexandretta.
Odds are the Assyrians will be deported, sadly. France will likely take them in and settle them in Syria or Lebanon somewhere. There'd be big knock-on effects from that. Maybe a Christian-majority Lebanon would result?
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Yugoslavia was a growth of a pre-established Serbian authority. Saddam came into power in an environment where the Sunni Arabs already had entrenched power and a monopoly on force. Kemalist Turkey is being formed more or less whole cloth, meaning there's a lot more space for institutional changes to form in the power vacuum since they don't have a pre-existing secular Turkish supremacy firmly entrenched on the ground