Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Let say Turkey gets the oil rich Mosul Vilayet in 1926. How does this work out for Turkey?
When has such things as minorities ever worried the Turks?
Then again, the British would see every reason to claim protection for the Kurds from Turkey in order to hold on to oil access.
Any scenario in which Turkey has the Mosul Vilayet is a scenario in which Britain allowed them to have it, which means London has either decided the oil there really isen't worth a hostile Turkey, or have reached an understanding with Ankara in which they get preferred strategic access to petroleum supplies in exchange for recognition of great Turkish claims. The Kurds would have to be thrown under the bus.
Turkey is better off without the Kirkuk. While in theory the oil revenues could be used in a sovereign wealth fund or reinvested in infrastructure and education, the military and/or government will be tempted to redistribute oil money in exchange for political support. Turkey would likely have problems with military interference in politics that resemble Nigeria's history, and a larger Kurdish population to deal with.Losing of Mosul changed Turkey's attidute towards Kurds and Turkey adopted Turkish nationalism instead of muslim nationalism.
https://m.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/han...eleri-degistirdi-benzer-etkiler-nasil-onlenir
So no PKK or any Kurdish seperatist terrorism.
Better withdrawl from Syria and Iraq during WWI and no Seikh Said revolt would be good pods.
IOTL Kirkuk fields could extract 3 milion barrels per day oil. Turkey's current oil consumption is 700k barrels per day. That means ITTL Turkey can easly export 2 milion oil per day. Keep in mind that IOTL Iraq wasted potential of Kirkuk so ITTL Turkey could have extracted more oil.
Best case Turkey uses oil revenues for industrialism, infrastructure and education then eventually becomes a developed country by at least 90s. Even absence of terrorism big boon for economy of Turkey (Cost of terror is more than 300 billion dollars for Turkey).
Worst case Turkey falls into the hands of populist politicans like Chavez or military dictators and end up as Venezuela like country.
When has such things as minorities ever worried the Turks?
Then again, the British would see every reason to claim protection for the Kurds from Turkey in order to hold on to oil access.
Turkey is better off without the Kirkuk. While in theory the oil revenues could be used in a sovereign wealth fund or reinvested in infrastructure and education, the military and/or government will be tempted to redistribute oil money in exchange for political support. Turkey would likely have problems with military interference in politics that resemble Nigeria's history, and a larger Kurdish population to deal with.
Even though it would make more sense to accommodate the Kurds, that doesn't mean the Kemalist elite would. Croatians were a sizable minority in interwar Yugoslavia, but that didn't keep the Serbs from deciding to run it as a greater Serbian empire. Under this logic, Saddam would've been more accommodating towards the Shia to stay in power longer.Except said Kurdish population, once it reaches a certain size, would nessecitate the Turkish government being structured (since they're going to be part of the state from the beginning) in such a way as to accommodate their interests. So Ataturk would need to, for example, ease off a bit on the radical secularization of society, forcing sedentary lifestyles, accomindiate the use of Kurdish dialects, ect. Nigeria can get away with using oppression on the Ojoni and their ilk to exploit its oil resources because all the individual ethnic groups are too tiny a porition of the total Nigerian population to effectively create a threatening resistance; the same can not be said of the Kurds in this scenario.
Even though it would make more sense to accommodate the Kurds, that doesn't mean the Kemalist elite would. Croatians were a sizable minority in interwar Yugoslavia, but that didn't keep the Serbs from deciding to run it as a greater Serbian empire. Under this logic, Saddam would've been more accommodating towards the Shia to stay in power longer.